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Michigan's 10th Congressional District election, 2020

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Michigan's 10th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 8, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Paul Mitchell (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Michigan
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Michigan's 10th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th
Michigan elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 10th Congressional District of Michigan, held elections in 2020.

Lisa McClain won election in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 10.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
May 8, 2020
August 4, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Paul Mitchell, who was first elected in 2016.


Lisa McClain won the August 4 Republican primary with 42% of the vote against two opponents. Kimberly Bizon won the Democratic primary with 54% to Kelly Noland's 46%.

Michigan's 10th Congressional District is located in the easternmost region of the lower peninsula of Michigan.The district includes all of Huron, Lapeer, Sanilac, and St. Clair counties as well as portions of Macomb and Tuscola counties.[1]

Republican Party For more information on the Republican primary, click here.
Democratic Party For more information on the Democratic primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Michigan's 10th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 34.4 33.7
Republican candidate Republican Party 64.2 66.3
Difference 29.8 32.6

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Michigan modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Lisa McClain defeated Kimberly Bizon in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lisa McClain
Lisa McClain (R)
 
66.3
 
271,607
Image of Kimberly Bizon
Kimberly Bizon (D) Candidate Connection
 
33.7
 
138,179

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 409,786
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Kimberly Bizon defeated Kelly Noland in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kimberly Bizon
Kimberly Bizon Candidate Connection
 
53.7
 
27,971
Image of Kelly Noland
Kelly Noland Candidate Connection
 
46.3
 
24,085

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 52,056
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Lisa McClain defeated Shane Hernandez and Doug Slocum in the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lisa McClain
Lisa McClain
 
41.7
 
50,927
Image of Shane Hernandez
Shane Hernandez
 
36.4
 
44,526
Image of Doug Slocum
Doug Slocum
 
21.9
 
26,750

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 122,203
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twelve of 83 Michigan counties—14 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bay County, Michigan 12.55% 5.56% 15.31%
Calhoun County, Michigan 12.46% 1.60% 9.36%
Eaton County, Michigan 4.72% 3.13% 8.40%
Gogebic County, Michigan 14.80% 8.10% 17.27%
Isabella County, Michigan 3.66% 9.28% 19.26%
Lake County, Michigan 22.77% 5.01% 12.28%
Macomb County, Michigan 11.53% 3.99% 8.62%
Manistee County, Michigan 15.29% 5.93% 13.26%
Monroe County, Michigan 21.97% 0.98% 4.35%
Saginaw County, Michigan 1.13% 11.89% 17.34%
Shiawassee County, Michigan 19.59% 3.67% 8.59%
Van Buren County, Michigan 13.92% 0.45% 8.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Michigan with 47.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1836 and 2016, Michigan voted Republican 60.8 percent of the time and Democratic 34.7 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Michigan voted Democratic four out of the five elections.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Michigan. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 53 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 37.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 39.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 57 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 12.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 67 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. Trump won eight districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Michigan's 10th Congressional District the 103rd most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kimberly Bizon Democratic Party $41,438 $41,246 $24,582 As of December 31, 2020
Lisa McClain Republican Party $2,485,337 $2,437,181 $48,156 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Michigan's 10th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 10th Congressional District candidates in Michigan in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Michigan, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Michigan 10th Congressional District Major party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 5/8/2020 Source
Michigan 10th Congressional District Qualified party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 5/8/2020 Source
Michigan 10th Congressional District Unaffiliated 3,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 7/16/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Michigan's 10th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Incumbent Paul Mitchell defeated Kimberly Bizon, Jeremy Peruski, and Harley Mikkelson in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Paul Mitchell
Paul Mitchell (R)
 
60.3
 
182,808
Image of Kimberly Bizon
Kimberly Bizon (D)
 
35.0
 
106,061
Image of Jeremy Peruski
Jeremy Peruski (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
3.7
 
11,344
Image of Harley Mikkelson
Harley Mikkelson (G)
 
0.9
 
2,851

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 303,064
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Kimberly Bizon defeated Frank Accavitti Jr. and Michael McCarthy in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kimberly Bizon
Kimberly Bizon
 
41.1
 
21,944
Image of Frank Accavitti Jr.
Frank Accavitti Jr.
 
32.0
 
17,047
Image of Michael McCarthy
Michael McCarthy
 
26.9
 
14,353

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 53,344
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Incumbent Paul Mitchell advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Paul Mitchell
Paul Mitchell
 
100.0
 
81,867

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 81,867
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Michigan's 10th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Candice Miller (R) did not seek re-election in 2016. Paul Mitchell (R) defeated Frank Accavitti Jr. (D), Lisa Lane Gioia (L), and Benjamin Nofs (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Mitchell defeated Anthony Forlini, Phil Pavlov, Alan Sanborn, and David VanAssche in the Republican primary. The primary elections took place on August 2, 2016.[13][14][15][16]

U.S. House, Michigan District 10 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Mitchell 63.1% 215,132
     Democratic Frank Accavitti Jr. 32.3% 110,112
     Libertarian Lisa Lane Gioia 3.1% 10,612
     Green Benjamin Nofs 1.5% 5,127
Total Votes 340,983
Source: Michigan Secretary of State


U.S. House, Michigan District 10 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Mitchell 38% 30,114
Phil Pavlov 27.7% 22,018
Alan Sanborn 15.9% 12,640
Anthony Forlini 9.9% 7,888
David VanAssche 8.4% 6,690
Total Votes 79,350
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

2014

See also: Michigan's 10th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 10th Congressional District of Michigan held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Candice Miller (R) defeated Chuck Stadler (D) and Harley Mikkelson (G) in the general election.

U.S. House, Michigan District 10 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCandice Miller Incumbent 68.7% 157,069
     Democratic Chuck Stadler 29.4% 67,143
     Green Harley Mikkelson 2% 4,480
Total Votes 228,692
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "Michigan," accessed June 29, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed April 20, 2016
  14. ↑ Politico, "Michigan House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  15. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed September 6, 2016
  16. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016


Michigan's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Gary Peters (D)
Elissa Slotkin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Democratic Party (8)
Republican Party (7)


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