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Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2018

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Michigan's 11th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 24, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
David Trott (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Michigan
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+4
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Michigan's 11th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 13th (special)
Michigan elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Former U.S. Treasury official Haley Stevens (D) defeated business owner Lena Epstein (R), public relations account executive Cooper Nye (I), and economist Leonard Schwartz (L) in the general election on November 6, 2018, for Michigan's 11th Congressional District.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Incumbent David Trott (R), who was first elected in 2014, did not seek re-election in 2018, setting up a competitive race to replace him.[1] In 2016, Trott was re-elected by 13 points. Although the district backed Barack Obama (D) in 2008, it voted for Mitt Romney (R) and Donald Trump (R) in the following presidential elections.[2] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included the district in its list of targets for 2018.[3]

The district was 99 percent suburban at the time of the 2018 election, which, according to Roll Call, made it more likely to lean Democratic.[4]



Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Haley Stevens defeated Lena Epstein, Leonard Schwartz, and Cooper Nye in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Haley Stevens
Haley Stevens (D)
 
51.8
 
181,912
Image of Lena Epstein
Lena Epstein (R)
 
45.2
 
158,463
Image of Leonard Schwartz
Leonard Schwartz (L) Candidate Connection
 
1.7
 
5,799
Image of Cooper Nye
Cooper Nye (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
1.3
 
4,727

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 350,901
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Haley Stevens defeated Tim Greimel, Suneel Gupta, Fayrouz Saad, and Nancy Skinner in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Haley Stevens
Haley Stevens
 
27.0
 
24,309
Image of Tim Greimel
Tim Greimel
 
21.8
 
19,673
Image of Suneel Gupta
Suneel Gupta
 
21.4
 
19,250
Image of Fayrouz Saad
Fayrouz Saad
 
19.4
 
17,499
Image of Nancy Skinner
Nancy Skinner
 
10.4
 
9,407

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 90,138
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Lena Epstein defeated Rocky Raczkowski, Mike Kowall, Klint Kesto, and Kerry Bentivolio in the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lena Epstein
Lena Epstein
 
30.9
 
26,925
Image of Rocky Raczkowski
Rocky Raczkowski
 
25.5
 
22,216
Image of Mike Kowall
Mike Kowall
 
18.4
 
16,011
Image of Klint Kesto
Klint Kesto
 
14.0
 
12,213
Image of Kerry Bentivolio
Kerry Bentivolio
 
11.3
 
9,831

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 87,196
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11

Leonard Schwartz advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Michigan District 11 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Leonard Schwartz
Leonard Schwartz Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
533

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 533
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Lena Epstein, Businesswoman
LenaEpstein3.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Epstein received her bachelor's degree from Harvard University and her M.B.A. from the University of Michigan. Her professional experience includes co-owning her family's business, Vesco Oil Corporation, a distributor of automotive and industrial lubricants. She was appointed by Governor Rick Snyder to the Michigan Child Abuse and Neglect Prevention Board in 2012. Epstein co-chaired the Donald Trump Michigan Presidential Campaign in 2016.[5]

Key messages
  • Epstein made her early support of President Trump a central theme, and defended Trump on national television on issues including trade policy and investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 election.[6]
  • Epstein campaigned with an emphasis on her role as an owner and operator of a business employing more than 200 people. Epstein said her business experience would help her succeed in advocating for lower taxes and less burdensome regulations.[7][8]
  • Epstein applauded President Trump’s August 27 announcement of a revised trade agreement with Mexico, saying, “Michigan auto and manufacturing industries will greatly benefit from the new free and fair trade deal. Manufacturing communities like ours will see more jobs and higher pay for our workers.”[9]



Haley Stevens, Former U.S. Treasury official
HaleyStevens.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Stevens earned a bachelor’s degree in political science in 2005 and a master’s degree in social policy and philosophy in 2007 from American University. Stevens worked for Obama for America and as briefing director for Senator Joe Biden during Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign and was appointed chief of staff for the Auto Task Force inside the U.S. Department of Treasury in 2009. Stevens was involved in setting up the Office of Recovery for Automotive Communities and Workers and the White House Office of Manufacturing Policy.[10][11]

Key messages
  • Stevens campaigned on a $15 federal minimum wage and said she was a critic of attempts to repeal Michigan’s prevailing wage law on the state level. Stevens cited her experience on the Auto Task Force as "economic development experience that will bring industry and government leaders together to produce outcomes for our district."[12]
  • Stevens supported the addition of a public insurance option to the Affordable Care Act and allowing people aged 55 to 65 to buy into Medicare.[12]
  • Stevens cited her background in workforce development and work developing STEM programs for software engineering and digital manufacturing as experience valuable to her education policy. Stevens advocated for tuition-free community college, increased funding for Pell grants, and supported relationships between union-led apprenticeship programs and community colleges.[12]



Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Michigan's 11th Congressional District, Epstein vs. Stevens
Poll Haley Stevens (D) Lena Epstein (R)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Target Insyght
October 15-17, 2018		 48%48%3%+/-4.5500
New York Times Upshot/Siena College
October 1-6, 2018		 45%38%17%+/-5465
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Michigan's 11th Congressional District, Epstein vs. Stevens
Poll Poll sponsor Haley Stevens (D) Lena Epstein (R)Leonard Schwartz (L)Undecided/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
ALG Research
October 10-14, 2018		Haley Stevens (D) campaign 44%34%4%16%+/-4.3513
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Haley Stevens Democratic Party $4,199,607 $4,184,089 $15,518 As of December 31, 2018
Lena Epstein Republican Party $2,723,099 $2,675,140 $47,958 As of December 31, 2018
Leonard Schwartz Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Cooper Nye Independent $6,877 $6,877 $0 As of November 16, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[13][14][15]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • On September 25th EMILY's List reported $576,000 in media production and airtime spending to oppose Epstein.[17]
  • On October 5, 2018, Michael Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC reported $640,000 in spending on ads in support of Stevens.[19]
    • The PAC reported an additional $2 million in spending on ads in support of Stevens.[20]
  • In March 2018, the Tom Steyer-backed organization NextGen America said it would spend $3.5 million in Michigan in the 2018 elections, and that some of it would be dedicated to flipping this seat into Democratic hands.[21]


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[22]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[23][24][25]

Race ratings: Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Michigan's 11th Congressional District the 203rd most Republican nationally.[26]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.99. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.99 points toward that party.[27]

Timeline

  • November 4, 2018: A debate between Epstein and Stevens aired on WDIV's "Flashpoint." View a video here.
  • October 31, 2018: Detroit Free Press endorsed Haley Stevens.[28]
  • October 19, 2018: Michael Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC reported $2 million in spending on ads in support of Stevens, bringing its total to $2.6 million.
  • October 6, 2018: A New York Times Upshot/Siena College poll found Stevens leading Epstein 45 to 38 percent. The margin of error was 5 percentage points.
  • September 25, 2018: EMILY's List reported $576,000 in media production and airtime spending to oppose Epstein.
  • July 10, 2018: Haley Stevens released a campaign ad titled, "Deliver."
  • June 19, 2018: Lena Epstein released a campaign ad titled, "Shoulder to Shoulder."

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Republican Party Lena Epstein

Support

"Protect," released October 24, 2018
"Underestimated," released September 27, 2018
"Shoulder to Shoulder," released June 16, 2018
"Tough," released June 13, 2018
"Work," released May 9, 2018


Oppose

"Work For," House Majority PAC ad released October 9, 2018
"Five Times," Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ad released September 25, 2018
  • The week before the election, 56 members of Detroit's Jewish community published a newspaper ad in Detroit Jewish News cirticizing Epstein's support for Pres. Donald Trump's immigration positions. View the ad here.

Democratic Party Haley Stevens

Support

"Roaring Back," released October 30, 2018
"Hood," released October 18, 2018
"Generation Liberal," released October 2, 2018
"New Gen," released September 20, 2018
"Deliver," released July 10, 2018

Oppose

"Slacker," Epstein campaign ad released October 22, 2018

Campaign themes

Republican Party Lena Epstein

Epstein’s campaign website stated the following:

“

My positions on a number of issues are defined by my experiences as an automotive industry business leader, wife, and mother. I co-own and manage Vesco Oil Corporation, my family’s 3rd generation distributorship. Our company employs over 200 people, and 90% of our business in based in Michigan. I have the unique perspective of a job creator, rather than that of a career politician.

I was also the Co-Chairman of the Donald J. Trump for President campaign in Michigan. Along the campaign trail, I saw firsthand how Michigan voters were inspired by his message to “Make America Great Again” and to protect our jobs with America First policies.

As a proud and unapologetic conservative, I will fight for what’s most important to the people of Michigan’s 11th congressional district:

Economic growth and opportunity: As a fiscal conservative, I will rein in excessive government spending, fight to reform the tax code to spur job creation and grow the economy, and let working families keep more of the money they earn. High quality education: We must have an education system in place that allows all our children to succeed and gives families the flexibility to choose what works best for their families- whether it’s in high performing public schools, at private schools or homeschools, all our children deserve an equal opportunity to reach their full potential. Affordable and sustainable health care: Congress must repeal and replace Obamacare, and ensure Americans have access to care at affordable rates. Support for the U.S.-Israel relationship: I am staunchly pro-Israel and will work tirelessly to strengthen the relationship between our two great nations. I will inspire our state and our country with a positive vision of the future. We can have an America that allows every person – regardless of background – the opportunity to succeed. I will represent every Michigan citizen as we work tirelessly to unite behind our shared ideals of freedom, safety, and opportunity for our families. I support our President, because a successful American Presidency leads to a successful America.

[30]

”
—Lena Epstein’s campaign website (2018)[31]

Democratic Party Haley Stevens

Stevens' campaign website stated the following:

“

Affordable Healthcare for Every American

Healthcare is a right, not a privilege. Every single American deserves access to affordable, high-quality, and accessible healthcare. For too many families, high deductibles make the health insurance they have almost useless. We need to work together to fix the Affordable Care Act (ACA), not dismantle it. In Congress, I will work to make healthcare more affordable for working families. I’ll also work to end the medical device tax and ensure that workers in collective bargaining agreements aren’t subject to the so-called Cadillac tax.

This should be something we all agree on, but instead of working toward this goal, Republicans in Washington have focused on dismantling the Affordable Care Act. In fact, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the recent tax legislation would result in 13 million fewer people having health insurance.

We should implement a public option for the ACA so that the insurance companies that are acting as a near monopoly in some places have competition. I also support allowing people aged 55-65, who face the highest prices under the current system, to buy into Medicare.

Lastly, I believe no one should face bankruptcy from healthcare costs. We must ensure that there is healthcare for all through an efficient and patient-friendly system.

Growing a New Economy

Now is the time for us to value hard work, prioritize wage growth and support working families. I have spent my career working alongside Midwest manufacturing companies large and small. We must get serious about the cost of living and earnings. I support increasing the minimum wage and encouraging larger businesses to support the $15 minimum wage. In an age when corporate executives make up to 300 times more than the average worker, we need to encourage wage growth through equal access to opportunity, where every child can live up to their full potential to succeed.

We need to reorient our policies so that people, not corporations, are at the forefront. Public private partnerships are critical to growing our economy and are something I believe in, having spent a career working at the intersection of industry and government.

I was at the table when the Economic Development Administration invested in the Detroit Regional Chamber to create a supplier diversification program. I have managed and created job training programs focused on advanced manufacturing and believe Michigan’s future of automation and innovation will continue to unlock incredible job opportunities, as long as we have policy makers advocating for the value of technical talent and hard work.

Manufacturing is the backbone of the economy in Southeast Michigan, and I am running as a woman in manufacturing with the economic development experience that will bring industry and government leaders together to produce outcomes for our district.

I support collective bargaining rights and value the service labor unions provide to our workers. I am a staunch supporter of the Davis-Bacon Act (1931) that established a prevailing wage for public works, and I have been an outspoken critic of Lansing’s attempt to repeal Michigan’s prevailing wage law on the state level.

We must address the Michigan teacher shortage by investing in public education at pre-K through grade 12. Public education dollars must be fully allocated, and our educators should receive the respect and dignity they deserve. We can address income disparities by providing access to affordable higher education for all. The average student loan debt in Michigan is nearly $30,000 and I will take on predatory lenders and corrupt, for-profit institutions of higher education. We need to protect interest rates, support our borrowers with fair repayment options and make secondary education accessible. That means free community college options and fair costs for in-state schools.

For the burgeoning and existing workforce, I believe in a 21st century labor movement that protects workers, supports training programs, and pays a livable wage. We need a federal government that strategically invests in research and development that supports the great innovation taking place in southeastern Michigan. My background has been tied to innovation programs and job creation efforts, and that is where I will be focused in Congress.

We need to support trade deals that prioritize the American worker and keep profits within our borders, while also holding China accountable. I would like to see a negotiation of trade agreements to level the playing field of wages and with new leadership, we can get these deals done.

Finally, I believe we must once and for all end the gender pay gap and support paid family leave for all Americans.

Quality Education for Students

As the daughter of a retired Detroit public school teacher, I am a fierce advocate for Michigan’s public education system. I am very troubled by the directives coming out of Betsy DeVos’ Department of Education. From pre-K to higher education, we need a member of Congress who will fight back against the Trump-DeVos education agenda and advocate for Michigan’s educators, students, and families.

There are currently no Michigan Democrats sitting on the U.S. House Committee on Education and the Workforce. When I am elected, I will seek out a spot on that committee to be the voice that Michigan families deserve.

At the K-12 level, the federal government’s role is to ensure that the neediest students succeed and to work as a partner with state and local governments. The federal government has a legal obligation to ensure equal access to education through Title 1. Unfortunately, the level of support provided is frequently far below the level needed to actually ensure equality, and in Congress I will support additional funding to help close the achievement gap.

I have a background in workforce development and have developed STEM education programs for middle school and high school students in digital manufacturing and software engineering. I am a strong proponent of apprenticeship and vocational education. We need to support Michigan schools to advance and increase our technical workforce and get back to the hands-on learning that our schools excelled in for many years.

I support proposals to make community college tuition-free through state based cost-sharing programs. I support using such programmatic dollars to increase the size of Pell Grants and make four-year college degrees significantly less costly. Finally, I stand by union run apprenticeship programs that link community colleges with employers and support employers who are directly looking to offer apprenticeship programs.

I am proud to have led workforce development initiatives with SkillsUSA, National Institute of Metalworking Skills, SME, ASME, the Manufacturing Institute, Code for America, the Department of Defense and the Department of Labor throughout my career. I have managed a multi-million dollar federally funded job training portfolio that received matching corporate investment and buy-in from universities, community colleges, and high schools.

For students who choose to attend 4-year universities, the cost of higher education is out of control. Over 44 million Americans owe a combined $1.4 trillion in student debt. That is more than than two and a half times what they owed just a decade ago. The average student in Michigan graduates with over $30,000 in student loan debt. This burden of debt is unacceptable, and the hefty price tag of higher education makes college seem out of reach for too many Michiganders. We must also address predatory lending and some for-profit colleges who subject student borrowers to extreme costs without a return on a certified degree.

In Congress, I will fight for every Michigan student — whether they are 3 or 73. Education holds the key to opportunity, and we must make sure every individual has the means to pull themselves up by their bootstraps by pursuing an educational track that will allow them to achieve the American Dream.

Our Promise to Seniors

In Congress, I will fight any attempt to privatize social security or turn Medicare into a voucher program.

These are programs that seniors paid into their entire working lives, and we must keep our promise to them by ensuring these programs are protected now and for generations to come. During the 2016 campaign, President Trump vowed to protect Social Security and Medicare. You can be sure I won’t let him forget it.

We must also ensure our seniors receive access to long-term care options, affordable housing options and have advocates in Congress to protect them from predatory and fraudulent schemes.

Finally, prescription drug costs are through the roof. Our senior citizens should never have to choose between paying for food or paying for their prescriptions.

Protecting Our “Pure Michigan” Environment

I believe climate change is a serious problem and needs to be addressed immediately before it is too late. When an overwhelming number of scientists around the world have cited the realities and dangerous implications of climate change, this is not a partisan issue, but the global challenge of our generation that requires dedicated leadership to tackle. President Trump has frequently and recklessly referred to climate change as a “hoax” and his Administration has continued to degrade the environment and puts us at risk to the worst threats of climate change.

Climate change and environmental degradation are issues that affect our entire planet, meaning we need an international solution supported by countries across the globe. President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement was extremely misguided and is a move I strongly oppose. Additionally, we need to stop the regressive politics of undermining the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and keystone policies that protect our air, water, and natural resources. We only have one planet, and it is important that we protect it for future generations. We must fight to keep Michigan the “Pure Michigan” that we love. We must protect our Great Lakes with the proper funding and scientific resources.

I believe the United States can lead the way in promoting a clean energy future. Through my work on the U.S. Auto Rescue, I established a track record of working on behalf of policies that cracked down on harmful emissions. Under the Cash for Clunkers program as part of the U.S. Auto Rescue efforts, consumers were encouraged to trade in vehicles with fuel economy of 18 miles per gallon or fewer in exchange for refund vouchers worth $3,500 to $4,500. The goal was to remove the more polluting vehicles from the road and spur economic growth. I have worked with manufacturers to support investments in clean and renewable energy through now-expired tax incentive programs that encouraged sustainable energy investment. There is no country or workforce more resilient or innovative than that of the United States of America, and we will lead the charge in growing and revitalizing our economy while pushing for technologies that will continue to improve the quality of our environment and reduce the catastrophic effects of climate change.

A Plan for Immigration

The metro Detroit region shows the way forward on immigration. We have a community of people with roots from all over the world working together.

The Trump administration’s divisive response to immigration issues is appalling and harmful. We must never forget that America is a country of immigrants. Recent actions by the Trump administration and Congress violate not only individual liberties, but also undermine our system of federalism and principles of local control. We need to curb the overreaching power of ICE.

Congress needs to pass legislation on comprehensive immigration that treats people with dignity. We need to pass legislation that supports deferred action for childhood arrivals known as DACA and grants citizenship. Now is the time for Congress to come together and fix a broken immigration system that has resulted in painful separations, impacted families and communities, and hurt our economy. It is no doubt that America, a nation of proud immigrants, needs to embrace safe, legal, and fair immigration policies and enforce the laws humanely.

Advocating for Equality

I am a lifelong friend of the LGBTQ+ community and believe LGBTQ+ individuals should have the same rights as all other Americans. In recent years, we have witnessed progress when it comes to LGBTQ+ rights, much of which has come from court decisions such as the now famous Supreme Court case that legalized gay marriage. We still have work to do in Michigan. For instance, Michigan state law does not include full protections for people based on their sexual orientation or gender identity. This means it is still legal to deny employment, housing, and medical treatment based on gender identity or sexual orientation. It is important that we have strong partnerships and support for LGBTQ+ rights and that current progress at the federal level is not undone. In Congress, I will support the LGBTQ+ community and be a voice for equality under the law.

Commonsense Gun Laws

It is past time that we act on commonsense gun reform. On January 3, 2019, I will send a Dear Colleague letter to the new class of the 116th United States Congress outlining my plan to begin an immediate dialogue on addressing gun violence in America.

With every passing day the urgency grows stronger, but still we are met with resistance and inaction from those who currently represent us. The overwhelming urgency of now is upon is.

We must end loopholes in the background checks system, finally pass a bill to crack down on bump stocks, and preserve current protections against gun silencers. These are commonsense reforms that cannot wait, and they will get my attention on day one in office.

Veterans and Defense

The mission of the Department of Veterans Affairs is to fulfill President Lincoln’s promise “to care for him who shall have borne the battle, and for his widow, and his orphan.” Having learned from family members who served in the military and in combat zones, I understand the special role that veterans play in our society. I have developed workforce training programs and have spent time on military bases to development training programs for service members.

The Department of Energy’s Advanced Manufacturing Office funded an exciting Advanced Manufacturing Internship program, which is designed to provide accelerated, hands-on career training for veterans and next-generation engineers to prepare them for long term manufacturing jobs upon leaving service.

We must continue to support veterans who return from service with visible and unseen scars. While the Department of Veterans Affairs maintains a National Resource Directory to help veterans and wounded warrior access programs and services, we must ensure that the VA is adequately serving our veterans. We need a VA that addresses mental health and suicide prevent and an agency that is equipped with the staff and resources to deliver for our ventures, particularly much needed medical staff.

I believe in the role the Department of the Defense plays in our government. I have worked closely with the DOD throughout my career, particularly the Office of Manufacturing and Industrial Based Policy. The DOD can be a partner for metro-department automakers and suppliers as our industrial base has been critical to our long term national security. We need to encourage public private partnerships and co-investment in R&D, Innovation and supply chain securitization, particularly for cyber security. We do not need to bloat the DOD budget at the expense of domestic programs. I believe in responsible spending that equips our soldiers and military personnel with the resources they need to do their jobs.

The United States foreign policy success rests squarely with strategic allied relationships, the utilization of smart power and diplomacy. We must avoid isolationist policies that fray international relationships and continue to develop strong bonds with our allies.

I believe in a strong U.S.-Israel relationship. The United States and Israel maintain a special allied relationship, bound by our shared commitment to common values. This is a relationship that must continue to thrive and go unquestioned – and most importantly cannot become a partisan issue. I am undoubtedly a staunch supporter of Israel and am eager for the opportunity to experience the country first-hand. I believe that the U.S-Israel relationship maintains security in an unstable part of the world, and that our country will continue to support Israel’s democratically elected leaders to further the mutual goals and necessary interests shared between our countries.

Both countries have a shared opportunity and a lot to gain from working together. I believe the past has shown us the results of a strong, allied relationship and that will benefit generations to follow. We set a global precedent and strengthen against threats and secure a mutual interest in a vulnerable region through a strong U.S-Israel partnership.

A Voice for Women

When I am elected to Congress, I will be the first woman to ever represent Michigan’s 11th District. I will use my office to defend women’s rights and champion the cause of full equality for women under the law.

We must end the gender pay gap. Nationally, women are paid 80 cents for every $1 a man is paid. In Michigan, women make only 78 cents to every $1 for men. The numbers are even worse for women of color. According to a National Partnership for Women & Families study, black women in Michigan make 63 cents for every $1 a man is paid, and Latina women make only 58 cents. This is unacceptable. In Congress, I will be a strong advocate for equal pay for women.

I am also an ardent supporter of paid family leave. In an economic environment where it can be difficult to make ends meet even as a middle class family, allowing parents with newborns and individuals with ailing family members to have some time off work to take care of their loved ones could not be more important. Congress must act on passing legislation that puts American families first by guaranteeing paid family leave.

Finally, I support a woman’s right to choose and I do not think federal lawmakers should be injecting themselves into women’s reproductive matters. I will fight for women’s reproductive freedom and will oppose the Trump Administration’s attempts to defund Planned Parenthood and deny women insurance for birth control. These attacks on women’s rights must stop.

Addiction and Drug Policy

The nationwide addiction crisis is something we as a country must come together to address immediately. Our families and communities are being torn apart by opioid abuse, and our government has a duty to take action to combat this epidemic. I support legislation that investigates inappropriate prescribing of narcotics, emphasizes treatment over prosecution, and gives Americans over-the-counter access to the lifesaving medication naloxone.

Another approach we must take to curb opioid addiction is decriminalizing marijuana for medicinal and recreational use. Studies have shown that full, federal legalization of medical marijuana in particular could be an effective solution to combat opioid addiction.

In addition to legalizing marijuana for medicinal purposes, I support descheduling marijuana from the Controlled Substances Act and pardoning and wiping the records of past offenders who were convicted of non-violent, marijuana-related crimes. We should begin taxing and regulating marijuana to fund important projects like our roads and our schools.

Finally, we must end the War on Drugs as we know it. Drug policy and prosecution targets people of color at a disproportionate rate. This form of injustice and inequality is unacceptable and it is not effectively solving the problem of ridding our communities of drugs and crime. We must reexamine how we approach drug policy with the purpose of supporting American families. I believe that together we can come up with solutions to save lives and rebuild the communities that have suffered from addiction for far too long.

Standing Up to Donald Trump

Now is the time for bold and courageous leadership. We must hold Donald Trump accountable for his lack of decency, corruption, open bigotry and attack on basic facts and science. I fully intend to stand up to the Trump Administration. I marched for Science in Detroit, I stood up to the racist and hateful crimes in Charlottesville, Virginia, and I got on the phone with community leaders when wrongful deportations were threatened against long standing residents of our district. I am here for decency, listening, and collaboration. I know we might not always agree. We must return to collaborative government and getting things done for the American people.

[30]

”
—Haley Steven’s campaign website (2018)[32]

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Republican Party Lena Epstein Facebook

Democratic Party Haley Stevens Facebook

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twelve of 83 Michigan counties—14 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bay County, Michigan 12.55% 5.56% 15.31%
Calhoun County, Michigan 12.46% 1.60% 9.36%
Eaton County, Michigan 4.72% 3.13% 8.40%
Gogebic County, Michigan 14.80% 8.10% 17.27%
Isabella County, Michigan 3.66% 9.28% 19.26%
Lake County, Michigan 22.77% 5.01% 12.28%
Macomb County, Michigan 11.53% 3.99% 8.62%
Manistee County, Michigan 15.29% 5.93% 13.26%
Monroe County, Michigan 21.97% 0.98% 4.35%
Saginaw County, Michigan 1.13% 11.89% 17.34%
Shiawassee County, Michigan 19.59% 3.67% 8.59%
Van Buren County, Michigan 13.92% 0.45% 8.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Michigan with 47.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1836 and 2016, Michigan voted Republican 60.8 percent of the time and Democratic 34.7 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Michigan voted Democratic four out of the five elections.[33]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Michigan. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[34][35]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 53 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 37.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 39.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 57 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 12.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 67 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. Trump won eight districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District history

2016

See also: Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent David Trott (R) defeated Anil Kumar (D), Jonathan Ray Osment (L), and Kerry Bentivolio (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[36][37][38][39]

U.S. House, Michigan District 11 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Trott Incumbent 52.9% 200,872
     Democratic Anil Kumar 40.2% 152,461
     Independent Kerry Bentivolio 4.4% 16,610
     Libertarian Jonathan Osment 2.5% 9,545
Total Votes 379,488
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

2014

See also: Michigan's 11th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 11th Congressional District of Michigan held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. David Trott (R) defeated Bobby McKenzie (D) and John Tatar (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Michigan District 11 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDave Trott 56.2% 140,435
     Democratic Bobby McKenzie 40.7% 101,681
     Libertarian John Tatar 3.1% 7,711
Total Votes 249,827
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Michigan heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Michigan State Legislature. They had a 63-46 majority in the state House and a 27-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Michigan elections, 2018

Michigan held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Michigan
 MichiganU.S.
Total population:9,917,715316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):56,5393,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:79%73.6%
Black/African American:14%12.6%
Asian:2.7%5.1%
Native American:0.5%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.6%3%
Hispanic/Latino:4.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$49,576$53,889
Persons below poverty level:20%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Michigan.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Michigan's three largest cities were Detroit (pop. est. 673,000), Grand Rapids (pop. est. 199,000), and Warren (pop. est. 135,000).[40]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Michigan from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Michigan Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Michigan every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Michigan 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 47.5% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.3% 0.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 54.2% Republican Party Mitt Romney 44.7% 9.5%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.4% Republican Party John McCain 41.0% 16.4%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 51.2% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.8% 3.4%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 51.3% Republican Party George W. Bush 46.2% 5.1%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Michigan from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Michigan 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Gary Peters 54.6% Republican Party Terri Lynn Land 41.3% 13.3%
2012 Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow 58.8% Republican Party Pete Hoekstra 38.0% 20.8%
2008 Democratic Party Carl Levin 62.7% Republican Party Jack Hoogendyk, Jr. 33.9% 28.8%
2006 Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow 56.9% Republican Party Michael Bouchard 41.3% 15.6%
2002 Democratic Party Carl Levin 60.6% Republican Party Rocky Raczkowski 37.9% 22.7%
2000 Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow 49.5% Republican Party Spence Abraham 47.9% 1.6%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Michigan.

Election results (Governor), Michigan 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Snyder 50.9% Democratic Party Mark Schauer 46.9% 4.0%
2010 Republican Party Rick Snyder 58.1% Democratic Party Virg Bernero 39.9% 18.2%
2006 Democratic Party Jennifer Granholm 56.4% Republican Party Dick DeVos 42.3% 14.1%
2002 Democratic Party Jennifer Granholm 51.4% Republican Party Dick Posthumus 47.4% 4.0%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Michigan in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Michigan 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 9 64.3% Democratic Party 5 35.7% R+4
2014 Republican Party 9 64.3% Democratic Party 5 35.7% R+4
2012 Republican Party 9 64.3% Democratic Party 5 35.7% R+4
2010 Republican Party 9 60.0% Democratic Party 6 40.0% R+3
2008 Republican Party 7 46.7% Democratic Party 8 53.3% D+1
2006 Republican Party 8 53.3% Democratic Party 7 46.7% R+1
2004 Republican Party 9 60.0% Democratic Party 6 40.0% R+3
2002 Republican Party 9 60.0% Democratic Party 6 40.0% R+3
2000 Republican Party 7 43.75% Democratic Party 9 56.25% D+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Michigan Party Control: 1992-2025
Two years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D
House D S S R R D D R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ The Detroit News, "Rep. Dave Trott is retiring from U.S. House," September 11, 2017
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 19, 2017
  3. ↑ DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  4. ↑ Roll Call, "Analysis: Will the Suburbs Flip the House? Watch These Seats," February 28, 2018
  5. ↑ Lena Epstein for Congress, "About Lena," accessed May 28, 2018
  6. ↑ ‘’Lena for Congress,’’ “Media,” accessed September 19, 2018
  7. ↑ Lena for Congress, "Platform," accessed September 19, 2018
  8. ↑ ‘’Facebook,’’ “LenaforCongress,” June 19, 2018
  9. ↑ ‘’Facebook,’’ “LenaforCongress,” August 28, 2018
  10. ↑ American University, "Driving Force," February 12, 2010
  11. ↑ Haley Stevens for Congress, "Meet Haley," accessed May 28, 2018
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 12.2 Haley Stevens for Congress, "Priorities," accessed September 19, 2018
  13. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  14. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  15. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  16. ↑ Twitter, "Patrick Svitek on August 24, 2018"
  17. ↑ FEC, "Independent Expenditures:Women Vote!" accessed September 30, 2018
  18. ↑ ProPublica, "Michigan’s 11th District House Race - 2018 cycle," accessed November 5, 2018
  19. ↑ FEC, "INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURES INDEPENDENCE USA PAC," accessed October 12, 2018
  20. ↑ FEC, "INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURES INDEPENDENCE USA PAC," accessed October 25, 2018
  21. ↑ Detroit News, "Billionaire Steyer targets $3.5M at Michigan," March 22, 2018
  22. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  23. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  24. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  25. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  26. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  27. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  28. ↑ Detroit Free Press, "Detroit Free Press endorsement: Elissa Slotkin and Haley Stevens for Congress," October 31, 2018
  29. ↑ Detroit News, "Pence: Ensure 'blue wave hits red wall right here in Michigan,'" October 29, 2018
  30. ↑ 30.0 30.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  31. ↑ Lena Epstein for Congress, “Issues,” accessed June 15, 2018
  32. ↑ Haley Stevens for Congress, "Priorities," accessed June 15, 2018
  33. ↑ 270towin.com, "Michigan," accessed June 29, 2017
  34. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  35. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  36. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed April 20, 2016
  37. ↑ Politico, "Michigan House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  38. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed September 6, 2016
  39. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  40. ↑ Michigan Demographics, "Michigan Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
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