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Michigan's 12th Congressional District election, 2020

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Michigan's 12th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 8, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Debbie Dingell (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Michigan
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Michigan's 12th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th
Michigan elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 12th Congressional District of Michigan, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Debbie Dingell won election in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 12.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
May 8, 2020
August 4, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Debbie Dingell, who was first elected in 2014. The race was one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018.


Michigan's 12th Congressional District is located in the southeastern region of the lower peninsula. It includes portions of Washtenaw and Wayne counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Michigan's 12th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 64.2 66.4
Republican candidate Republican Party 34.4 30.7
Difference 29.8 35.7

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Michigan modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 12

Incumbent Debbie Dingell defeated Jeff Jones and Gary Walkowicz in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 12 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Debbie Dingell
Debbie Dingell (D) Candidate Connection
 
66.4
 
254,957
Image of Jeff Jones
Jeff Jones (R)
 
30.7
 
117,719
Image of Gary Walkowicz
Gary Walkowicz (Working Class Party)
 
2.9
 
11,147

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 383,823
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 12

Incumbent Debbie Dingell defeated Solomon Rajput in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 12 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Debbie Dingell
Debbie Dingell Candidate Connection
 
80.9
 
103,953
Image of Solomon Rajput
Solomon Rajput Candidate Connection
 
19.1
 
24,497

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 128,450
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 12

Jeff Jones advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 12 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jeff Jones
Jeff Jones
 
100.0
 
34,718

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 34,718
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Working Class Party convention

Working Class Party convention for U.S. House Michigan District 12

Gary Walkowicz advanced from the Working Class Party convention for U.S. House Michigan District 12 on July 26, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Gary Walkowicz
Gary Walkowicz (Working Class Party)

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twelve of 83 Michigan counties—14 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bay County, Michigan 12.55% 5.56% 15.31%
Calhoun County, Michigan 12.46% 1.60% 9.36%
Eaton County, Michigan 4.72% 3.13% 8.40%
Gogebic County, Michigan 14.80% 8.10% 17.27%
Isabella County, Michigan 3.66% 9.28% 19.26%
Lake County, Michigan 22.77% 5.01% 12.28%
Macomb County, Michigan 11.53% 3.99% 8.62%
Manistee County, Michigan 15.29% 5.93% 13.26%
Monroe County, Michigan 21.97% 0.98% 4.35%
Saginaw County, Michigan 1.13% 11.89% 17.34%
Shiawassee County, Michigan 19.59% 3.67% 8.59%
Van Buren County, Michigan 13.92% 0.45% 8.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Michigan with 47.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1836 and 2016, Michigan voted Republican 60.8 percent of the time and Democratic 34.7 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Michigan voted Democratic four out of the five elections.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Michigan. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 53 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 37.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 39.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 57 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 12.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 67 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. Trump won eight districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+14, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 14 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Michigan's 12th Congressional District the 97th most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.02. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.02 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Debbie Dingell Democratic Party $1,633,276 $1,692,360 $437,383 As of December 31, 2020
Jeff Jones Republican Party $10,616 $9,657 $1,513 As of December 31, 2020
Gary Walkowicz Working Class Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Michigan's 12th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 12th Congressional District candidates in Michigan in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Michigan, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Michigan 12th Congressional District Major party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 5/8/2020 Source
Michigan 12th Congressional District Qualified party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 5/8/2020 Source
Michigan 12th Congressional District Unaffiliated 3,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 7/16/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Michigan's 12th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 12

Incumbent Debbie Dingell defeated Jeff Jones, Gary Walkowicz, and Niles Niemuth in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 12 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Debbie Dingell
Debbie Dingell (D)
 
68.1
 
200,588
Image of Jeff Jones
Jeff Jones (R)
 
28.9
 
85,115
Image of Gary Walkowicz
Gary Walkowicz (Working Class Party)
 
2.3
 
6,712
Image of Niles Niemuth
Niles Niemuth (Independent)
 
0.8
 
2,213

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 294,628
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 12

Incumbent Debbie Dingell advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 12 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Debbie Dingell
Debbie Dingell
 
100.0
 
103,278

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 103,278
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 12

Jeff Jones advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 12 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jeff Jones
Jeff Jones
 
100.0
 
33,839

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 33,839
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Michigan's 12th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Debbie Dingell (D) defeated Jeff Jones (R), Tom Bagwell (L), Dylan Calewarts (G), and Gary Walkowicz (Working Class) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[13][14][15][16]

U.S. House, Michigan District 12 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDebbie Dingell Incumbent 64.3% 211,378
     Republican Jeff Jones 29.3% 96,104
     Working Class Gary Walkowicz 2.8% 9,183
     Libertarian Tom Bagwell 2.3% 7,489
     Green Dylan Calewarts 1.3% 4,377
     N/A Write-in 0% 11
Total Votes 328,542
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

2014

See also: Michigan's 12th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 12th Congressional District of Michigan held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Debbie Dingell (D) defeated Terry Bowman (R), Gary Walkowicz (I) and Bhagwan Dashairya (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Michigan District 12 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDebbie Dingell 65% 134,346
     Republican Terry Bowman 31.3% 64,716
     Libertarian Bhagwan Dashairya 1.2% 2,559
     Independent Gary Walkowicz 2.4% 5,039
Total Votes 206,660
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "Michigan," accessed June 29, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed April 20, 2016
  14. ↑ Politico, "Michigan House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  15. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed September 6, 2016
  16. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016


Michigan's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Gary Peters (D)
Elissa Slotkin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Democratic Party (8)
Republican Party (7)


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