Michigan's 5th Congressional District election, 2020

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Michigan's 5th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 8, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Dan Kildee (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Michigan
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Michigan's 5th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th
Michigan elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 5th Congressional District of Michigan, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Dan Kildee won election in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 5.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
May 8, 2020
August 4, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Dan Kildee, who was first elected in 2012.

Michigan's 5th Congressional District is located in the mid region of the lower peninsula of Michigan. It includes Arenac, Bay, Genesee, and Iosco counties as well as parts of Saginaw and Tuscola counties.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Michigan's 5th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 51.4 54.5
Republican candidate Republican Party 47.1 41.8
Difference 4.3 12.7

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Michigan modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 5

Incumbent Dan Kildee defeated Tim Kelly, Kathy Goodwin, and James Harris in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 5 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Kildee
Dan Kildee (D)
 
54.5
 
196,599
Image of Tim Kelly
Tim Kelly (R) Candidate Connection
 
41.8
 
150,772
Image of Kathy Goodwin
Kathy Goodwin (Working Class Party) Candidate Connection
 
2.3
 
8,180
Image of James Harris
James Harris (L)
 
1.5
 
5,481

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 361,032
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 5

Incumbent Dan Kildee advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 5 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Kildee
Dan Kildee
 
100.0
 
91,288

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 91,288
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 5

Tim Kelly defeated Earl Lackie in the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 5 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tim Kelly
Tim Kelly Candidate Connection
 
79.3
 
37,545
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Earl Lackie
 
20.7
 
9,822

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 47,367
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Michigan District 5

James Harris advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Michigan District 5 on July 18, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of James Harris
James Harris (L)

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Working Class Party convention

Working Class Party convention for U.S. House Michigan District 5

Kathy Goodwin advanced from the Working Class Party convention for U.S. House Michigan District 5 on July 26, 2020.

Candidate
✔
Image of Kathy Goodwin
Kathy Goodwin (Working Class Party) Candidate Connection

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twelve of 83 Michigan counties—14 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bay County, Michigan 12.55% 5.56% 15.31%
Calhoun County, Michigan 12.46% 1.60% 9.36%
Eaton County, Michigan 4.72% 3.13% 8.40%
Gogebic County, Michigan 14.80% 8.10% 17.27%
Isabella County, Michigan 3.66% 9.28% 19.26%
Lake County, Michigan 22.77% 5.01% 12.28%
Macomb County, Michigan 11.53% 3.99% 8.62%
Manistee County, Michigan 15.29% 5.93% 13.26%
Monroe County, Michigan 21.97% 0.98% 4.35%
Saginaw County, Michigan 1.13% 11.89% 17.34%
Shiawassee County, Michigan 19.59% 3.67% 8.59%
Van Buren County, Michigan 13.92% 0.45% 8.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Michigan with 47.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1836 and 2016, Michigan voted Republican 60.8 percent of the time and Democratic 34.7 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Michigan voted Democratic four out of the five elections.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Michigan. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 53 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 37.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 39.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 57 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 12.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 67 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. Trump won eight districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Michigan's 5th Congressional District the 169th most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.24. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.24 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Dan Kildee Democratic Party $1,677,147 $1,511,290 $781,722 As of December 31, 2020
Tim Kelly Republican Party $72,427 $72,427 $0 As of December 31, 2020
James Harris Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Kathy Goodwin Working Class Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: Michigan's 5th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 5th Congressional District candidates in Michigan in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Michigan, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Michigan 5th Congressional District Major party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 5/8/2020 Source
Michigan 5th Congressional District Qualified party 1,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 5/8/2020 Source
Michigan 5th Congressional District Unaffiliated 3,000 Fixed number N/A N/A 7/16/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Michigan's 5th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 5

Incumbent Dan Kildee defeated Travis Wines and Kathy Goodwin in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 5 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Kildee
Dan Kildee (D)
 
59.5
 
164,502
Image of Travis Wines
Travis Wines (R)
 
35.9
 
99,265
Image of Kathy Goodwin
Kathy Goodwin (Working Class Party)
 
4.6
 
12,646

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 276,413
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 5

Incumbent Dan Kildee advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 5 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Dan Kildee
Dan Kildee
 
100.0
 
73,996

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 73,996
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 5

Travis Wines advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 5 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Travis Wines
Travis Wines
 
100.0
 
44,405

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 44,405
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

No Libertarian candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Michigan's 5th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Dan Kildee (D) defeated Allen Hardwick (R), Steve Sluka (L), and Harley Mikkelson (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[13][14][15][16]

U.S. House, Michigan District 5 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDan Kildee Incumbent 61.2% 195,279
     Republican Allen Hardwick 35.1% 112,102
     Libertarian Steve Sluka 2.2% 7,006
     Green Harley Mikkelson 1.5% 4,904
Total Votes 319,291
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

2014

See also: Michigan's 5th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 5th Congressional District of Michigan held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Dan Kildee (D) defeated Allen Hardwick (R) and Harold H. Jones (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Michigan District 5 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDan Kildee Incumbent 66.7% 148,182
     Republican Allen Hardwick 31.2% 69,222
     Libertarian Hal Jones 2.1% 4,734
Total Votes 222,138
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "Michigan," accessed June 29, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed April 20, 2016
  14. ↑ Politico, "Michigan House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  15. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed September 6, 2016
  16. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016


Michigan's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Gary Peters (D)
Elissa Slotkin (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Democratic Party (8)
Republican Party (7)


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