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Michigan's 10th Congressional District election, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)

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Michigan's 10th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 8, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Paul Mitchell (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Michigan
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Michigan's 10th Congressional District
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Michigan elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
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U.S. House elections, 2020

Lisa McClain defeated Shane Hernandez and Doug Slocum in the Republican primary for Michigan's 10th Congressional District on August 4, 2020. Incumbent Paul Mitchell (R), in office since 2017, did not seek re-election, leaving this safe Republican seat open. McClain won 42% of the vote, followed by Hernandez with 36% and Slocum with 22%.

McClain was senior vice president of Hantz Group, a financial services company, as of her 2020 campaign. She referred to her business experience, saying she was a conservative outsider who would help President Donald Trump (R) bring jobs back to the U.S. and the district.

Hernandez said he had lived the American dream, referring to his father, who was a migrant and factory worker. Hernandez was elected to the state House in 2016. He emphasized his legislative record and his rating by the Michigan Information & Research Service as the most conservative state house member.[1]

Slocum highlighted his 35 years in the Air Force, where he became a brigadier general. He said he would transfer his leadership skills to fighting radical policies and defending conservative principles in Congress.

For more on candidates' backgrounds and key messages, click here.

Mitchell endorsed Hernandez, saying in a Club for Growth Action ad, "Shane is the only conservative candidate in this race. The others are just imposters."[2]

All three candidates said they supported the president. McClain released an ad referring to statements Hernandez made in July 2016 saying that Trump was not his first or second choice for the Republican presidential nomination and calling the southern border wall ridiculous. Hernandez's campaign responded that he supported Trump in 2016 and that there was no evidence McClain did anything to support Trump then.[3]

Satellite spending in the primary has focused on Hernandez and McClain. As of August 3, Club for Growth Action had spent $782,000 supporting Hernandez and $749,000 opposing McClain. US Future Fund spent $417,000 opposing Hernandez and $73,000 supporting McClain. Americans for Prosperity Action spent $192,000 supporting Hernandez.[4]

This page focuses on Michigan's 10th Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Michigan modified its primary election process as follows:

  • Candidate filing procedures: The petition signature requirements for select primary candidates was reduced to 50 percent of their statutory requirements. The filing deadline was extended from April 21 to May 8.
  • Voting procedures: Absentee ballot applications sent automatically to all registered voters in the primary election.
  • Political party events: The Democratic Party of Michigan canceled its state convention, originally scheduled for March 21, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Lisa McClain
Lisa McClain
 
41.7
 
50,927
Image of Shane Hernandez
Shane Hernandez
 
36.4
 
44,526
Image of Doug Slocum
Doug Slocum
 
21.9
 
26,750

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 122,203
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[5] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Shane Hernandez

Image of Shane Hernandez

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: Michigan House of Representatives (Assumed office: 2017)

Biography:  Hernandez received bachelor's and master's degrees in architecture from Lawrence Technological University. He was vice president of design at an architectural firm. Hernandez chaired the state House Appropriations Committee as of his 2020 campaign.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

"I believe in the American dream because I've lived it. And today, I'm running for Congress to protect it. In Lansing, I fought for what's right and got results. I opposed every effort to raise taxes, defended the unborn, and stood up for individual liberties. And I've never backed down when our values were under attack. That's why I was voted the most conservative member of the House."

"Now, socialists threaten everything that makes our country great. ... In Congress, I will fight alongside President Trump, and I will never relent. I'm ready for the challenge, and I'm committed to solving issues that we care about here in Michigan: securing better trade deals for manufacturing and agriculture, securing our borders and protecting the Great Lakes."

Show sources

Sources: Shane Hernandez's 2020 campaign website, "Home," accessed July 24, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Michigan District 10 in 2020.

Lisa McClain

Image of Lisa McClain

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  McClain received a bachelor's degree in business administration from Northwood University. She worked as district manager for American Express Financial Advisors Inc. McClain founded North End Support Team, which helps fund expenses such as counseling, drug testing, and transportation for drug court participants. As of her 2020 campaign, she was senior vice president of Hantz Group, a financial services company.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

"I'm a conservative outsider, proven job creator, and pro-Trump Republican. I grew up in a Michigan farming town, worked my way through school, and spent my career building one of the fastest-growing companies in Michigan."

McClain's campaign website said, "Lisa knows that health and public safety, as well as the economy, are top-of-mind for everyone these days. President Trump's economic results were fantastic for all Americans. Post- COVID-19, rebuilding the economy quickly by bringing back jobs and production to America in general, and our District specifically, will be among her top priorities in Congress."

Show sources

Sources: Lisa McClain's 2020 campaign website, "Videos & Commercials," accessed July 24, 2020; LinkedIn, "Lisa McClain," accessed July 24, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Michigan District 10 in 2020.

Doug Slocum

Image of Doug Slocum

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Slocum graduated from East Carolina University. He served in the U.S. Air Force for 35 years and obtained the rank of brigadier general. Slocum commanded the 127th Wing and Selfridge Air National Guard Base. As of his 2020 campaign, he was a trustee of Walsh College and served on the boards of the Fisher House of Michigan, the National Defense Industrial Association, and Women in Defense.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Slocum's campaign website said, "He stood with Ronald Reagan. He was an early supporter of Donald Trump. Though he retired from military service in May 2019, General Slocum again heard the call to serve. Slocum knew he had more to give, and with the radical policies being pushed in Washington today, it was his time to stand up for conservative principles and bring the leadership to Congress which he exemplified the past 35 years." 

"I'll fight to secure the border and continue to protect our homeland. As a Christian and a father, I'll protect the things that truly matter and defend the right to life at all stages. And I'll work with President Trump to continue to grow our economy, to fight radical policies, and to lead on issues important to our country, to Michigan."

Show sources

Sources: Doug Slocum's 2020 campaign website, "Home," accessed July 24, 2020

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Michigan District 10 in 2020.

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Shane Hernandez Republican Party $609,400 $609,252 $148 As of December 31, 2020
Lisa McClain Republican Party $2,485,337 $2,437,181 $48,156 As of December 31, 2020
Doug Slocum Republican Party $641,032 $639,720 $1,312 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Primaries in Michigan

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Michigan utilizes an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[8][9]

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: Michigan's 10th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Michigan's 10th Congressional District the 103rd most Republican nationally.[14]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.11. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.11 points toward that party.[15]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Twelve of 83 Michigan counties—14 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bay County, Michigan 12.55% 5.56% 15.31%
Calhoun County, Michigan 12.46% 1.60% 9.36%
Eaton County, Michigan 4.72% 3.13% 8.40%
Gogebic County, Michigan 14.80% 8.10% 17.27%
Isabella County, Michigan 3.66% 9.28% 19.26%
Lake County, Michigan 22.77% 5.01% 12.28%
Macomb County, Michigan 11.53% 3.99% 8.62%
Manistee County, Michigan 15.29% 5.93% 13.26%
Monroe County, Michigan 21.97% 0.98% 4.35%
Saginaw County, Michigan 1.13% 11.89% 17.34%
Shiawassee County, Michigan 19.59% 3.67% 8.59%
Van Buren County, Michigan 13.92% 0.45% 8.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Michigan with 47.5 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1836 and 2016, Michigan voted Republican 60.8 percent of the time and Democratic 34.7 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Michigan voted Democratic four out of the five elections.[16]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Michigan. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[17][18]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 53 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 37.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 39.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 57 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 12.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 67 out of 110 state House districts in Michigan with an average margin of victory of 21.2 points. Trump won eight districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District election history

2018

See also: Michigan's 10th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Incumbent Paul Mitchell defeated Kimberly Bizon, Jeremy Peruski, and Harley Mikkelson in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Paul Mitchell
Paul Mitchell (R)
 
60.3
 
182,808
Image of Kimberly Bizon
Kimberly Bizon (D)
 
35.0
 
106,061
Image of Jeremy Peruski
Jeremy Peruski (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
3.7
 
11,344
Image of Harley Mikkelson
Harley Mikkelson (G)
 
0.9
 
2,851

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 303,064
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Kimberly Bizon defeated Frank Accavitti Jr. and Michael McCarthy in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Kimberly Bizon
Kimberly Bizon
 
41.1
 
21,944
Image of Frank Accavitti Jr.
Frank Accavitti Jr.
 
32.0
 
17,047
Image of Michael McCarthy
Michael McCarthy
 
26.9
 
14,353

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 53,344
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Incumbent Paul Mitchell advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Paul Mitchell
Paul Mitchell
 
100.0
 
81,867

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 81,867
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Michigan's 10th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Candice Miller (R) did not seek re-election in 2016. Paul Mitchell (R) defeated Frank Accavitti Jr. (D), Lisa Lane Gioia (L), and Benjamin Nofs (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Mitchell defeated Anthony Forlini, Phil Pavlov, Alan Sanborn, and David VanAssche in the Republican primary. The primary elections took place on August 2, 2016.[19][20][21][22]

U.S. House, Michigan District 10 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Mitchell 63.1% 215,132
     Democratic Frank Accavitti Jr. 32.3% 110,112
     Libertarian Lisa Lane Gioia 3.1% 10,612
     Green Benjamin Nofs 1.5% 5,127
Total Votes 340,983
Source: Michigan Secretary of State


U.S. House, Michigan District 10 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Mitchell 38% 30,114
Phil Pavlov 27.7% 22,018
Alan Sanborn 15.9% 12,640
Anthony Forlini 9.9% 7,888
David VanAssche 8.4% 6,690
Total Votes 79,350
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

2014

See also: Michigan's 10th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 10th Congressional District of Michigan held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Candice Miller (R) defeated Chuck Stadler (D) and Harley Mikkelson (G) in the general election.

U.S. House, Michigan District 10 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCandice Miller Incumbent 68.7% 157,069
     Democratic Chuck Stadler 29.4% 67,143
     Green Harley Mikkelson 2% 4,480
Total Votes 228,692
Source: Michigan Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Michigan House Republicans, "MIRS News: Hernandez Record ‘Most Conservative’ in Michigan House," December 21, 2019
  2. ↑ YouTube, ""Endorsed" CFG Action TV Ad (MI-10)," July 9, 2020
  3. ↑ Detroit Free Press, "3 Republicans in running for Republican nomination to replace US Rep. Paul Mitchell," July 24, 2020
  4. ↑ Open Secrets, "Michigan District 10 Race, Outside spending," accessed August 3, 2020
  5. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  6. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. ↑ NCSL, "State Primary Election Types," accessed October 7, 2024
  9. ↑ Michigan.gov, "Questions and Answers: Michigan’s Presidential Primary," accessed October 7, 2024
  10. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  15. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  16. ↑ 270towin.com, "Michigan," accessed June 29, 2017
  17. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  18. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  19. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed April 20, 2016
  20. ↑ Politico, "Michigan House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  21. ↑ Michigan Secretary of State, "2016 Michigan Candidate Listing," accessed September 6, 2016
  22. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016


Michigan's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Gary Peters (D)
Elissa Slotkin (D)
Representatives
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District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Democratic Party (8)
Republican Party (7)


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