Michigan's 10th Congressional District election, 2024

	2026 → ← 2022
Michigan's 10th Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: April 23, 2024
	Primary: August 6, 2024; General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
	Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.; Voting in Michigan
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Lean Republican; DDHQ and The Hill: Toss-up; Inside Elections: Lean Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
	Michigan's 10th Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th; Michigan elections, 2024; U.S. Congress elections, 2024; U.S. Senate elections, 2024; U.S. House elections, 2024; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

Michigan 2024 elections

U.S. Senate • U.S. House • State executive offices • State House • Special state legislative • Supreme court • Appellate courts • Local ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • Recalls • All other local • How to run for office

Incumbent John James (R) defeated Carl Marlinga (D), Mike Saliba (L), and Andrea Kirby (Working Class Party) in the general election for Michigan's 10th Congressional District on Nov. 5, 2024.

This election was a rematch of the 2022 general election, when James defeated Marlinga 48.8% to 48.3%. It was the third closest House race in the nation in 2022.^[1]^[2] Kirby and Saliba also ran in 2022 and received 1.8% and 1.1% of the vote, respectively.

Before he was elected to Congress in 2022, James was an aviation officer in the U.S. Army, president of James Group International, and CEO of Renaissance Global Logistics, a supply-chain management and logistics company based in Detroit.^[3] James said he wanted to lower inflation, secure the border, and strengthen the economy.^[4]

In a speech at the Republican National Convention James said, "America was sold on hope and now the world is on fire, our borders are wide open, and Americans are going into debt to pay for their groceries. We can once again have a land where a child's outcome isn't determined by their zip code, we can once again have a land where hard work truly does get you ahead, we can once again have a land where you can go from poverty to prosperity in a single generation."

Marlinga was a former five-term Macomb County prosecutor, assistant U.S. attorney, and Michigan 16th Circuit Court judge.^[5] Marlinga said, "We will work tirelessly to address the issues that matter most to our community — restoring a woman’s right to choose and defending reproductive freedom, protecting Lake St. Clair and the Great Lakes from oil drillers and rebuilding America so you can work one job and pay the bills."^[4]

In an interview with the Detroit Free Press editorial board, Marlinga said he ran because he wanted to protect democracy. He said, "Jan. 6 of 2021 happened...I want to be in the House of Representatives on Jan. 6, 2025 ... I don’t want Donald Trump and his forces to hijack the election. Or if the election is thrown into the House, I don’t want there to be one more Republican vote, because I need to save democracy.”^[6]

Based on third-quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, James raised $8.3 million and spent $6.8 million, and Marlinga raised $2.6 million and spent $1.7 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here. As of December 31, 2022, James had raised $7 million and spent $6.2, and Marlinga had raised and spent $1 million.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included Marlinga in its "Red to Blue" program.^[7] The committee did not include Marlinga in the program in 2022.^[8] The district was one of 34 congressional districts with a Republican incumbent or an open seat the committee targeted in 2024. To read about DCCC targeting initiatives, click here. For a complete list of DCCC targeted districts, click here.

Before the election, four independent election forecasters differed in their ratings for the general election, with three rating it Lean Republican and one rating it a toss-up. The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.

At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.^[9] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.^[10] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.

In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 48.8%-48.3%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 49.8%-48.8%.^[11] For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Incumbent John James defeated Carl Marlinga, Andrea Kirby, and Mike Saliba in the general election for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on November 5, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	John James (R)	51.1	217,437
	Carl Marlinga (D)	45.0	191,363
	Andrea Kirby (Working Class Party)	2.6	11,162
	Mike Saliba (L)	1.3	5,339

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 425,301
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Carl Marlinga defeated Diane Young, Tiffany Tilley, and Emily Busch in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on August 6, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Carl Marlinga	48.8	32,561
	Diane Young	24.4	16,282
	Tiffany Tilley	13.3	8,861
	Emily Busch	12.8	8,541
	Other/Write-in votes	0.7	464

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 66,709
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Incumbent John James advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on August 6, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		John James	100.0	52,871

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 52,871
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Libertarian convention

Libertarian convention for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Mike Saliba advanced from the Libertarian convention for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on July 20, 2024.

		Candidate
✔		Mike Saliba (L)

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Working Class Party convention

Working Class Party convention for U.S. House Michigan District 10

Andrea Kirby advanced from the Working Class Party convention for U.S. House Michigan District 10 on June 23, 2024.

		Candidate
✔		Andrea Kirby (Working Class Party)

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Voting information

See also: Voting in Michigan

Election information in Michigan: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 21, 2024
Online: Oct. 21, 2024

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

Yes

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

In-person: Nov. 4, 2024
By mail: Received by Nov. 1, 2024
Online: Nov. 1, 2024

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Received by Nov. 5, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 26, 2024 to Nov. 3, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. - 8:00 p.m. (EST/CST)

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

John James

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office:

U.S. House of Representatives, Michigan District 10 (Assumed office: 2023)

Biography: James received a bachelor's degree from the United States Military Academy at West Point, and master's degrees from Penn State University and the University of Michigan. Before holding elected office, he was an aviation officer in the Army and president of James Group International.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

James highlighted his military experience, "As a former Apache helicopter pilot who flew over 750 combat hours in Operation Iraqi Freedom, I know that freedom isn’t free. It is incumbent on us to preserve this freedom and ensure that our children and our children’s children can enjoy the bountiful blessings of this great Nation."

In a campaign advertisement, James said, "Our streets are rife with crime, our kids can't read, and illegals are getting better help from Democrats in four days than we've gotten in 400 hundred years. America was sold on hope and now the world is on fire, our borders are wide open, and Americans are going into debt to pay for their groceries. We can once again have a land where a child's outcome isn't determined by their zip code, we can once again have a land where hard work truly does get you ahead."

James said: "I have a mother who graduated the top of her class in one of the very first integrated classes at Mississippi State University. I have a father who was born in 1941 in the Jim Crow South, lived directly across the street from Mississippi State University, and couldn't go there because he was Black. But he served his country honorably in Vietnam, came back, and started a trucking company with one truck, one trailer, and no excuses...My family's story motivates me, inspires me, and really reminds me of the duty that I have to protect the American dream for future generations."

Show sources

Sources: Facebook, "John James," March 4, 2024Facebook, "John James," July 3, 2024YouTube, "John James Speech to the 2024 RNC Convention," July 25, 2024; LinkedIn, "John James," accessed August 26, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Michigan District 10 in 2024.

Carl Marlinga

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office:

Macomb County Prosecutor (1985-2004)
16th Judicial Circuit Court Judge (2017-2022)

Biography: Marlinga received a bachelor's degree from the University of Detroit and a law degree from the University of Michigan Law School. Before running for Congress, he was an attorney and a judge.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Marlinga ran on his experience as a prosecutor and judge. His campaign website said: "I am proud to have served our community for 40 years as a tough on crime prosecutor and as a fair and commended judge who has cracked down on white-collar crime, stood up for seniors and protected our natural treasures. I dedicated my service to fighting for fairness, justice and protecting the rights of victims. I will continue to bring that FIGHT to Congress to ensure our justice system works equally for everyone."

Marlinga's campaign website said his top priority was protecting the Great Lakes: "It is our responsibility as well as my top priority to ensure our lakes and rivers are clean for generations to come. As the Macomb County Prosecutor, I fought to protect our national treasures and the lake is cleaner now because of some of those efforts but the commitment of the EPA and the state is not what it should be. I pledge to strengthen the EPA and clean up our waters while in Congress."

Marlinga said the reason he is running is because he wants to save democracy: "Jan. 6 of 2021 happened...I want to be in the House of Representatives on Jan. 6, 2025 ... I don’t want Donald Trump and his forces to hijack the election. Or if the election is thrown into the House, I don’t want there to be one more Republican vote, because I need to save democracy.”

Show sources

Sources: Deadline Detroit, "Carl Marlinga: 'We Need Members of Congress Who Will Steadfastly Resist This Descent Into Authoritarianism,'" June 28, 2024Detroit Free Press, "For Dems in Macomb County's 10th District Carl Marlinga is best choice | Endorsement," June 11, 2024Carl Marlinga 2024 Campaign website, "Issues," accessed August 26, 2024; LinkedIn, "Carl Marlinga," accessed August 26, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Michigan District 10 in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign ads

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

John James

August 15, 2024

View more ads here:

Carl Marlinga

Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Carl Marlinga while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

We provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. No polls were available for this election. To notify us of polls published in this election, please email us.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[12]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[13]^[14]^[15]

Race ratings: Michigan's 10th Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 5, 2024	October 29, 2024	October 22, 2024	October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

Carl Marlinga

Election spending

Campaign finance

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
John James	Republican Party	$9,546,139	$9,606,964	$734,681	As of December 31, 2024
Carl Marlinga	Democratic Party	$2,954,055	$2,925,342	$34,620	As of December 31, 2024
Mike Saliba	Libertarian Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Andrea Kirby	Working Class Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election. * Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.^[16]^[17]^[18]

If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.

By candidate	By election
John James Carl Malinga	Open Secrets Federal Election Commission

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Competitiveness
Presidential elections

State party control

Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Michigan.

Michigan U.S. Senate competitiveness, 2014-2024
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	1	1	1	6	2	1	1	100.0%	0	N/A
2020	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	0.0%	0	N/A
2018	1	1	0	3	2	0	1	50.0%	0	N/A
2014	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	0.0%	0	N/A

U.S. House

Michigan U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	13	13	2	43	26	6	6	46.2%	5	45.5%
2022	13	13	2	53	26	4	9	50.0%	7	58.3%
2020	14	14	1	55	28	7	8	53.6%	4	33.3%
2018	14	14	2	51	28	9	1	35.7%	1	9.1%
2016	14	14	2	38	28	3	3	21.4%	3	25.0%
2014	14	14	4	48	28	5	8	46.4%	6	60.0%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Michigan in 2024. Information below was calculated on June 5, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Forty-three candidates ran for Michigan’s 13 U.S. House districts, including 23 Democrats and 20 Republicans. That’s an average of 3.3 candidates per district.

The 43 candidates who ran in Michigan in 2024 was the fewest number of candidates since 2016, when 38 candidates ran.

The 7th and 8th Congressional Districts were open in 2024. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 2.2 districts were open per year.

Incumbent Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-07) did not run for re-election because she ran for the U.S. Senate. Rep. Dan Kildee (D-08) retired from public office.

Six candidates—three Democrats and three Republicans—ran for the open 8th Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a seat in Michigan in 2024.

Twelve primaries—six Democratic and six Republican—were contested in 2024. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 11.4 primaries were contested per year.

Five incumbents—three Democrats and two Republicans—were in contested primaries in 2024. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 4.2 incumbents ran in contested primaries.

Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all 13 districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+3. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 3 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Michigan's 10th the 207th most Republican district nationally.^[19]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Michigan's 10th based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
48.8%	49.8%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.^[20] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
52.4	45.0	R+7.3

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Michigan, 2020

Michigan presidential election results (1900-2020)

13 Democratic wins
17 Republican wins
1 other win

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	R	R	R	P^[21]	R	R	R	R	D	D	R	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	D

See also: Party control of Michigan state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Michigan's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Michigan
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	2	6	8
Republican	0	7	7
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	13	15

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Michigan's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Michigan, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Gretchen Whitmer
Lieutenant Governor	Garlin Gilchrist II
Secretary of State	Jocelyn Benson
Attorney General	Dana Nessel

State legislature

Michigan State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	20
	Republican Party	18
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		38

Michigan House of Representatives

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	54
	Republican Party	54
	Other	0
	Vacancies	2
Total		110

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

Michigan Party Control: 1992-2024
Two years of Democratic trifectas • Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D
Senate	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D
House	D	S	S	R	R	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Michigan in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Michigan, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
Michigan	U.S. House	Democratic or Republican	1,000-2,000	N/A	4/23/2024	Source
Michigan	U.S. House	Unaffiliated	3,000-6,000	N/A	7/18/2024	Source

District history

The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.