Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)

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Michigan's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 8, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Justin Amash (Libertarian)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Michigan
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Michigan's 3rd Congressional District
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Peter Meijer won Michigan's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary on August 4th. Meijer and Lynn Afendoulis led the field in media coverage, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements.[1] The seat was left open after incumbent Justin Amash joined the Libertarian Party and decided to not pursue a minor-party candidacy.[2] As of 9:30 p.m. Central Time on August 4th, 64% of precincts had reported. Peter Meijer led with 51% of the vote, followed by Lynn Afendoulis with 25%, and Tom Norton with 18%.


Peter Meijer is a U.S. Army veteran and the great-grandson of Hendrik Meijer, the founder of the supermarket chain of the same name. Meijer had worked most recently as a real estate analyst with Olympia Development of Michigan.[3] Before running for office, Meijer supported legislation affecting veterans, like the Post-9/11 Veterans Educational Assistance Act of 2008.[4] Meijer said he would end military involvement in the Middle East, oppose abortion, and focus on the economy and immigration.[5]

Lynn Afendoulis was serving her first term as a representative in the Michigan State Legislature. Before assuming the office, she worked at Universal Forest Products.[3] Afendoulis’ key issues included the economy, immigration, opposing pollution of the Great Lakes, and opposing abortion.[5]

As of July 17, Meijer had raised $1,507,967, including $475,000 in self-funded contributions. Afendoulis had raised $884,011, including $256,000 in self-funded contributions.[6][7] Meijer's noteworthy primary endorsements included U.S House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and U.S. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, while Afendoulis' noteworthy primary endorsements included Susan B. Anthony List and two former primary competitors.[8][9]

Joe Farrington, Tom Norton, and Emily Rafi were also running in the primary.

The candidates had differed on their degree of support for President Donald Trump.[7] In a July 14 debate, when the candidates were asked if they support Trump, Afendoulis affirmed her support for the President, stressed the importance of respect, and said that he “has gotten many, many critical things done.” Meijer, in response to the same question, said he was “not running to be a rubber stamp,” lauded the President’s efforts to end military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, and said he’d like to work with the President to do so.[10]

In regards to the long-term dynamics of Meijer and Afendoulis' stances, The Detroit News wrote, “two political forces collide in the race for Amash's seat. One is President Donald Trump, who remains popular among GOP primary voters. The other is Democrats' momentum in West Michigan, [...] fueled by hesitation about Trump among general election voters.”[7]

Click on candidate names below to view their key messages:


Lynn Afendoulis
Peter Meijer


This page focuses on Michigan's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Michigan modified its primary election process as follows:

  • Candidate filing procedures: The petition signature requirements for select primary candidates was reduced to 50 percent of their statutory requirements. The filing deadline was extended from April 21 to May 8.
  • Voting procedures: Absentee ballot applications sent automatically to all registered voters in the primary election.
  • Political party events: The Democratic Party of Michigan canceled its state convention, originally scheduled for March 21, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Election updates

Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Michigan District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Peter Meijer
Peter Meijer
 
50.2
 
47,273
Image of Lynn Afendoulis
Lynn Afendoulis Candidate Connection
 
26.1
 
24,579
Image of Tom Norton
Tom Norton
 
15.8
 
14,913
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Joe Farrington
 
4.2
 
3,966
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Emily Rafi Candidate Connection
 
3.7
 
3,462

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 94,193
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[13] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Lynn Afendoulis

Image of Lynn Afendoulis

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

Submitted Biography:  "I am a mother, the granddaughter of immigrants, and someone who has called West Michigan home my entire life. I had a successful 38-year career in the private sector before being called into public service in 2018 when I first ran for the Michigan State Legislature. As a young woman growing up, I learned about what my grandparents faced in their homelands and the sacrifices they made not just to come to this country in search of the American Dream, but also as new Americans, and it shaped my perspective on life. It also gave me a deep appreciation for the community and drove me to engage in the community as an adult. I am running because I know our community deserves better than we have had from Justin Amash. I believe the needs and voice of West Michigan have been underrepresented since 2010. And, in these trying times, we need better than that. "

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

I believe that West Michigan deserves someone who will work with President Trump to help get Michigan's economy back on track.

As we come out of this pandemic and cover the costs of need and change, we need someone who will be willing to make the tough decisions to cut the fat in government, eliminating waste and duplication and deciding what's necessary and what's nice to have. People say we can't cut our way to a solution; I say we can't tax our way there.

Our southern border was at crisis levels before President Trump came to office. I will work with President Trump to secure our borders, improve our legal immigration system, and ensure this nation laws enforces its laws.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Michigan District 3 in 2020.

Peter Meijer

Image of Peter Meijer

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Meijer was born and raised in Grand Rapids, Michigan. He attended West Point and Columbia University before joining the U.S. Army. After serving in Iraq from 2010 to 2011, Meijer worked for a conflict analysis NGO in Afghanistan. He then received an MBA from New York University and returned to Michigan to work as an analyst at Olympia Development of Michigan.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

“I’m a conservative because limited government, economic freedom, individual liberty, these principles are what has made our country a superpower. It’s what we can do to make sure that from now on it’s not Democratic solutions that are on the table, because those are only going to cause more problems at the federal level. We need to be ensuring we are addressing the underlying challenges. I fought for our veterans. I campaigned for veteran education so that they have a degree of upward social mobility that our post-World War II generation had as well. I want to go to Washington to fight for West Michigan so we have strong, stable, and effective representation.”

“On the issues, I’ve really seen this breakdown between issues that are very much at the national level, health care, immigration, national defense, and then those that are addressing far more tangible, local issues. Something that’s come up in a number of our rural communities is the digital divide and providing high speed internet for areas like Ionia, Barry and Calhoun Counties. We have the cities of Battle Creek and Grand Rapids, but we also have many rural and agricultural townships as well.”

“I’ve been heartened by the amount of folks in the community who say, they’re tired of folks who are just running because they’re bashing somebody else, ‘we want someone who’s standing on their own record, rather than sitting there and picking on someone else.’”

Show sources

Sources: Ionia Sentinel-Standard, "MI-3 candidate Meijer thinks he can provide fresh leadership for district," July 16, 2020. WOOD TV8, "Michigan 3rd Congressional District Republican debate," July 14, 2020; votemeijer.com, "About," accessed July 31, 2020. M Live, "See how Republican primary candidates for 3rd Congressional District answered questions on key issues," June 26, 2020.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Michigan District 3 in 2020.


Noteworthy Primary Endorsements

This section lists endorsements issued in this election. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.

Republican primary endorsements
Endorsement Afendoulis Farrington Meijer Norton Rafi
Elected officials
U.S. Senator Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)[8] ✔
U.S. House Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas)[8] ✔
U.S. House Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.)[8] ✔
U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)[8] ✔
U.S. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.)[11] ✔
U.S. House Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.)[8] ✔
Individuals
Former primary candidate Joel Langlois (R)[12] ✔
Former primary candidate Andrew Jackson Willis (R)[9] ✔
Organizations
Maggie's List[9] ✔
National Association of Realtors PAC[9] ✔
Susan B. Anthony List[9] ✔
Tea Party Express[14] ✔
Value in Electing Women PAC[9] ✔

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Michigan's 3rd Congressional District the 183rd most Republican nationally.[15]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.03. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.03 points toward that party.[16]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[17] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[18] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Lynn Afendoulis Republican Party $1,032,752 $1,032,735 $17 As of December 31, 2020
Joe Farrington Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Peter Meijer Republican Party $3,501,197 $3,412,998 $88,199 As of December 31, 2020
Tom Norton Republican Party $51,836 $51,321 $515 As of December 31, 2020
Emily Rafi Republican Party $26,586 $26,586 $0 As of July 15, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[19]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[20][21][22]

Race ratings: Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upLean RepublicanLean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ M Live, "How Trump is impacting Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District race," July 29, 2020
  2. ↑ Detroit Free Press, "In race to replace Amash, Meijer may have edge but he's got competition," July 23, 2020
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 M Live, "See how Republican primary candidates for 3rd Congressional District answered questions on key issues," June 26, 2020
  4. ↑ Ionia Sentinel-Standard, "MI-3 candidate Meijer thinks he can provide fresh leadership for district," July 16, 2020
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 WZZM 13", "Republicans competing in 3rd Congressional District race debate pandemic, immigration and health care," July 18, 2020
  6. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Campaign Finance Data," accessed July 31, 2020
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Detroit News, "Trump looms large in West Michigan race to replace presidential critic Amash," July 25, 2020
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 Peter Meijer 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed August 3, 2020
  9. ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 Lynn Afendoulis 2020 campaign website, "Endorsement List," June 26, 2020
  10. ↑ WOOD TV8, "Michigan 3rd Congressional District Republican debate," July 14, 2020
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 WZZM 13, "House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy endorses Peter Meijer for Congress," May 1, 2020
  12. ↑ 12.0 12.1 MLive, "Former candidate Joel Langlois endorses Lynn Afendoulis in 3rd Congressional District race," April 23, 2020
  13. ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  14. ↑ Facebook, "Peter Meijer on July 22, 2020," July 22, 2020
  15. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  16. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  17. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  18. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  19. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  20. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  21. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  22. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018


Michigan's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Gary Peters (D)
Elissa Slotkin (D)
Representatives
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District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Democratic Party (8)
Republican Party (7)


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