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Midterm Election Countdown: The South Regional Review

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October 22, 2014

By Sarah Rosier

With plenty of statewide ballot measures, toss-up U.S. Senate races and contested judicial offices, the South is home to many of the hottest races and measures in 2014. Voters throughout the region will head to the polls on November 4 to choose candidates for offices ranging from local school boards to the U.S. Senate. There are a total of nine governor's mansions, 56 other state executive offices, 162 U.S. House seats, 15 U.S. Senate seats (including one special election in Oklahoma), 1,811 state legislative seats, 47 statewide ballot measures, 1,796 judicial offices and 715 school board seats in the nation's largest school districts up for grabs.

Ballotpedia and Judgepedia are providing comprehensive coverage of all these elections from now to November. Click here for links to more detailed information on each race.

Highlights

West Virginia House of Delegates

The West Virginia House of Delegates faces the prospect of Republican control for the first time since the 1930s. Fueled by an 11-seat swing in 2012 and a defection since, many analysts consider the Republican Party to have a serious chance of closing the six-seat gap. The GOP has filed to run candidates in all of the state legislative seats up for election this year, ensuring that no Democratic candidate runs unchallenged. Some have noted that the additional Republican candidates are solid in their own right, rather than just ballot fillers. "We have doctors, pharmacists—there is a good slate this year," said Vera McCormick, the Kanawha County clerk. West Virginia Republican Party Chairman Conrad Lucas agreed, saying, "It was so important this year for Republicans to make sure we had folks who were ready to govern. We’re fully prepared to be in leadership positions in both the House and state Senate this year." Danny Jones, Mayor of Charleston, backed Republicans to take control. "I think the Republicans are much more motivated and the Democrats are somewhat downtrodden and feel like they don’t have anywhere to go or anybody to vote for and a bunch of these Republicans are going unchallenged. There could be a few Democrats recapture seats but I think a lot more Republicans will."[1][2]

Larry Puccio, Chairman of the West Virginia Democratic Party, believes his party can hold onto their control of the House. The anti-Obama campaign run by many Republicans in 2012, he says, won't work again. "While I think that will be used again and they’ll attempt to use it, I really don’t think that folks believe that a House of Delegate member who will probably never meet the president or know him whatsoever would have any tie at all to him and they will still vote for their local guy," he said.[2]

Florida gubernatorial rematch

Florida Governor Rick Scott

Former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) is seeking election to the office he held from 2007 to 2011, except this time as a member of a different party. He was elected governor as a Republican, became an independent in 2010 and currently considers himself a Democrat. Crist and Gov. Rick Scott (R) have been close in polling with Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie drawing about 6 percent on average. The race has also produced a substantial amount of ad spending. The competitive gubernatorial contest was the only race on the November ballot that threatens to shift the partisan balance of power in Florida. Both chambers of the Florida State Legislature and the governor's office are currently held by the Republican Party, making Florida a state government trifecta. The Florida House of Representatives and Florida State Senate were considered safe Republican chambers in the 2014 elections. With the governorship facing a potential partisan switch, Florida could lose its trifecta status.

Meanwhile, in the Arkansas gubernatorial race, Mike Beebe (D) could not run for re-election due to term limits, leaving the governor's office open for a Republican pick-up. Asa Hutchinson (R), a former U.S. House member and U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency head, has held small leads over Democrat Mike Ross in polls. Hutchinson ran and lost in the 2006 gubernatorial race against Beebe.

U.S. Senate toss-ups

Kansas candidate Greg Orman

The South is home to seven U.S. Senate races that will determine the control of the Senate in 2015: Arkansas, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina and West Virginia.

The Senate could see its third Independent senator elected to Congress. In Kansas, Sen. Pat Roberts faces a credible unaffiliated challenger in Greg Orman. After the Democratic challenger Chad Taylor withdrew his candidacy, media attention turned to Orman. Due to a slip in popularity after Taylor's announcement, Roberts announced that Senator Ted Cruz, along with Senator Tom Coburn, would assist him in a bus campaign tour. Since then, Roberts' poll numbers improved in mid-October with Public Policy Polling showing just a narrow lead for Orman at 44-41.[3][4]

Four of the most vulnerable incumbent senators are located in the South. Sens. Mark Pryor (D-AR), Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Mary Landrieu (R-LA) and Kay Hagan (D-NC) all face credible challengers in 2014.

Heading into the election, Democrats control the U.S. Senate while Republicans are the majority in the U.S. House. For Republicans to take the majority in the Senate, they need to take six seats currently held by Democrats and retain control of the 14 seats currently held by a Republican. For Democrats to take majority control of the U.S. House, a pick up of 17 seats is needed.[5]

Contested state court battles

Four seats on the North Carolina Supreme Court are up for election this year--the majority of the seven-member court. North Carolina's judicial elections are technically nonpartisan, but it is a state where the justices' political affiliations are clearly known and political parties may publicly endorse candidates. The partisan balance of the court is currently 5-2 Republican. Though a partisan flip to a Democratic majority is not possible due to a lack of any Democratic candidate in the race for chief justice, Republicans could potentially monopolize the court if they are able to oust the two incumbents. These are also some of the more costly judicial races in the country. As of the most recent campaign finance reports, the eight candidates up for election in November had raised a combined total of over $2 million. That only includes money received through the end of June 2014, so much more is likely to come in before the general election.

Texas has two courts of last resort, both of which feature elections this year. The Texas Supreme Court, which is in charge of civil cases, features four Republican incumbents seeking re-election. The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals, which hears criminal cases, has three seats up for election with no incumbents running.

The GOP has held a monopoly on both of the state's highest courts. That technically changed this year, when longtime Republican Justice Lawrence Meyers, of the court of criminal appeals, decided to switch to the Democratic ticket in his bid for a seat on the supreme court. The one Democratic candidate for the court of criminal appeals, John Granberg, faces the best odds due to the fact that his Republican opponent, Bert Richardson, does not have the advantage of incumbency. The three Democratic candidates for the supreme court face an uphill battle against incumbents from the dominant Republican Party. Any Democratic victory in these races will be significant.

Marijuana and abortion measures

Voters in Florida and Washington, D.C., will vote on marijuana measures.

  • Florida Amendment 2: If approved, the measure would legalize medical marijuana. The initiative polled very well earlier in the year, but since an opposition campaign formed, polling has dropped dramatically - from 82 percent approval in November 2013 to 48 percent last week. A total of over $9 million has been spent on the measure.
  • Washington D.C. Initiative 71: If approved, the measure would legalize the recreational use of marijuana in D.C. Adam Eidinger, campaign chairman for the D.C. Cannabis Campaign, has expressed concern that the U.S. Congress would interfere with the initiative and prevent it from going into effect, since marijuana would still be illegal according to federal law.

In Tennessee, Amendment 1 is a notable measure dealing with abortion. If approved, the measure would add language to the Tennessee Constitution empowering the legislature to enact, amend or repeal state statutes regarding abortion, including for pregnancies resulting from rape or incest or when necessary to protect the mother's life.

Louisiana's school board races see competition

In Louisiana's Jefferson Parish, the entire board is up for re-election and eight of the nine races are contested. With all nine seats of the board up for election, the 2014 election may be an opportunity for a shift in the board's partisan balance. Prior to the election, the board is composed of seven Republicans and two Democrats. Democratic District 1 incumbent Mark Morgan switched parties to run as an independent, where he was re-elected without opposition. Due to redistricting, Republican District 2 incumbent Etta Licciardi was moved into District 3. Only Democratic candidates are running for the open seat. This leaves the board with a guaranteed three Republicans, two Democrats and one independent.

Additionally, two candidates faced challenges over whether or not they had met the residency requirements. Both Rickeem Jackson (D) in District 2 and Phillip Huskey (D) in District 3 had their candidacies challenged on this basis. The courts ruled in favor of Jackson and disqualified Huskey from the election.[6][7]

The current board in Vernon Parish has five Democrats, four Republicans and three independents. Beyond the board's partisan composition, this year's elections will be the first affected by the term limits approved by voters in 2012. While District 7 will not see a race for its representative on the school board, a bond issue specifically addressing that district is on the ballot.

Regional overview

Alabama

Arkansas

Delaware

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

Louisiana

Maryland

Mississippi

North Carolina

Oklahoma

South Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Virginia

Washington, D.C.

West Virginia

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Washington Times, "Some W.Va. state Dems flip to GOP for midterms," April 19, 2014
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 MetroNews, "Do Republicans have a realistic chance to take the House?" May 13, 2014
  3. ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Key Races Tighten in Kansas," October 14, 2014
  4. ↑ The Washington Post, "Ted Cruz to Campaign for Pat Roberts," October 6, 2014
  5. ↑ New York Times, "FiveThirtyEight," accessed December 20, 2013
  6. ↑ The Times-Picayune, "Rickeem Jackson allowed to run for Jefferson Parish School Board, judge rules," September 2, 2014
  7. ↑ The Times-Picayune, "Phillip Huskey disqualified by judge from Jefferson Parish School Board race," August 29, 2014
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