Midterm Election Countdown: The West Regional Review

October 15, 2014

The West has no shortage of elections rated as toss-ups or with just a slight lean. Voters will head to the polls on November 4 to choose candidates for offices ranging from local school boards to the U.S. Senate. There are a total of 10 governor's mansions, 54 other state executive offices, 102 U.S. House seats, eight U.S. Senate seats, 1,106 state legislative seats, 51 statewide ballot measures, 987 judicial offices and 526 school board seats in the nation's largest school districts up for grabs.

Ballotpedia and Judgepedia are providing comprehensive coverage of all these elections from now to November. Click here for links to more detailed information on each race.

The highlights

Marijuana on the ballot

Voters in Alaska will decide the fate of Ballot Measure 2, which, if approved, would allow people age 21 and older to possess up to one ounce of marijuana and up to six plants. The manufacture, sale and possession of marijuana paraphernalia would also be made legal under the measure. These changes would be implemented at the state level; however, these acts would still remain illegal under federal law.^[1]^[2]

This is the third attempt in the last 15 years to decriminalize marijuana in Alaska. In 2000, voters defeated Measure 5, which sought to "do away with civil and criminal penalties for persons 18 years or older who use marijuana, or other hemp products." The legalization of recreational marijuana was once again defeated at the polls in 2004 when voters turned down Measure 2, which attempted to "remove civil and criminal penalties under state law for persons 21 years or older who grow, use, sell or give away marijuana or hemp products."

The 2012 elections proved to be groundbreaking for marijuana legalization support groups. Voters in Washington approved Initiative 502, thereby legalizing the recreational use of marijuana. Coloradans followed suit when they approved Amendment 64 during the same election. However, voters in Oregon rejected Measure 80, a similar, though slightly less stringent, marijuana legalization measure. Measure 80 would have allowed adults over the age of 21 to possess an unlimited supply of marijuana and given an industry-dominated board permission to regulate sales.^[3]

Toss-up races for U.S. Senate

Representative Mark Begich

One of the tightest Senate races will be held in Alaska. Incumbent Mark Begich is a Democratic senator in a red state, making his seat one of the most vulnerable in 2014. The unpopularity of President Obama's healthcare mandate, combined with its poor implementation, is a major issue that Begich will have to overcome in order to win re-election. This seat is included in the Fiscal Times list of the seven most vulnerable Senate seats up for election in 2014, and is considered a toss-up in 2014.^[4] Begich is challenged by Daniel S. Sullivan (R), Thom Walker (L), Ted Gianoutsos (I) and Sid Hill (I).^[5]

Recent poll results have challenger Representative Cory Gardner (R-CO) leading since mid-September against incumbent Senator Mark Udall (D). Udall does hold a significant edge over Gardner in fundraising. As of the FEC's July Quarterly reports, Udall had raised $10.4 million and had $5.7 million cash on hand.^[6] Gardner had raised less than half of Udall's total at just under $5 million and had $3.4 million on hand.^[7] Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race as a "Toss Up."^[8]^[9]

Gubernatorial battles

Alaska incumbent Sean Parnell (R) faces a unique challenge from a fusion ticket (Alaska First Unity ticket) featuring independent candidate Bill Walker and Democratic candidate Byron Mallott. Mallott was originally the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, but liberal groups in the state pushed for fusion with Walker, who had strong poll numbers following the August 19 primary. Walker led a Public Policy Polling poll in mid-September and head-to-heads have shown a consistent five-point lead for the independent ticket. Republicans have held the governor's office since 2002, though Democratic and Alaska Independence Party governors held the position from 1982 to 2002.

Governor John Hickenlooper

Democratic incumbent Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper ran for re-election in 2014. Also seeking a second term is current Lieutenant Governor Joseph Garcia (D), who will join Hickenlooper on the general election ticket. Hickenlooper and Garcia were elected together in 2010. Voters selected Bob Beauprez as the Republican nominee for governor on June 24. Beauprez represented Colorado's 7th Congressional District from 2003 to 2007 and he was the 2006 Republican nominee for governor.^[10] He drew 30 percent of the primary vote, defeating Tom Tancredo, Colorado Secretary of State Scott Gessler, and Mike Kopp.

On the advertising front, the primary campaign season was a relatively quiet one for the governor's race. This changed after the primary election, however, as Hickenlooper transitioned out of unopposed reverie into active campaign mode. According to the candidates' campaign finance reports due July 1, Hickenlooper raised nearly $3 million in preparation for the second phase of this campaign cycle, and ended the reporting period with $579,268 of cash on hand. Meanwhile, Beauprez, having weathered a tough primary battle, was left with a mere $34,921 cash on hand. Beauprez' total fundraising for the cycle as of June 25 was $351,921, and he already faced loans exceeding $500,000, most of which he lent to himself. ^[11]

The race has been rated "Lean D" by The Cook Political Report, giving Hickenlooper a slight advantage.^[12] Meanwhile, Governing rated the upcoming general election race between Hickenlooper and Republican challenger Bob Beauprez as a "Toss-up."^[13]

Post-recall state legislative elections in Colorado

The Democrats control the Colorado State Senate by the smallest possible margin of one seat. The 2013 recalls of Senate President John Morse (D) and Angela Giron (D) were followed by the attempted recall and resignation of Evie Hudak (D). All three petitions were fueled by gun control legislation passed by the chamber during the 2013 session. Morse and Giron were replaced by Republicans Bernie Herpin and George Rivera, respectively, while Hudak's resignation allowed a Democratic vacancy committee to fill her seat with Rachel Zenzinger (D) and prevent a Republican majority. All three seats are up for election in 2014. In 2012, six districts of the State Senate held general elections with a margin of victory between 0 and 10 percent.

In Arizona, Independent candidate Tom O'Halleran in State Senate District 6 is looking to make history by becoming the first person not affiliated with the Democratic or Republican parties to win election to the Arizona State Legislature. O'Halleran, a former member of both the State Senate and State House, switched his registration from Republican to Independent in May 2014, citing Republicans' inability to tackle specific issues even when holding a majority.^[14]^[15]

State supreme court elections

Montana will choose two judges for its state supreme court, as incumbents James Rice and Michael E. Wheat are challenged by W. David Herbert and Lawrence VanDyke, respectively. In the primary, both incumbents fared quite well compared to their opponents, but the challengers will get a second chance in the general election. There was some drama earlier this year, as VanDyke was ruled ineligible to run. That ruling was overturned by the state's supreme court in July. For more information from Judgepedia, see: Montana Supreme Court elections, 2014.

Washington voters will see four state supreme court seats on their ballots, though only two seats are contested. Justice Charles W. Johnson, the court's most senior justice, faces a challenge by Eddie Yoon. Justice Debra Stephens is running for re-election against John "Zamboni" Scannell, whose candidacy has not faced a legal challenge, despite the fact that he was disbarred in Washington. Justice Stephens seems confident that she can beat the former Zamboni driver from Seattle at the ballot, rather than in the court. For more information from Judgepedia, see: Washington Supreme Court elections, 2014.

Ethics concerns in Nevada school board election

Board member Erin E. Cranor

In Nevada, the District G race for the Clark County Board of Trustees between incumbent Erin E. Cranor and challenger Joe Spencer brought attention to a state ethics investigation of four board members. Spencer filed a complaint earlier this year with the Nevada Commission on Ethics against Cranor and three other board members based on their advocacy for a 2012 property tax increase. The complaint claimed that the board members used district resources to support the increase, which did not gain approval at the ballot in November 2012. Spencer's filing included emails from district secretaries asking for volunteers to gain support from their neighbors and friends ahead of the vote. District F incumbent Carolyn Edwards faced a similar complaint from another district resident but settled with the ethics commission in November 2013.^[16]

District officials also faced questions about their administration of annual testing at Matt Kelly Elementary School. The Nevada Department of Education investigated the district after allegations of cheating at Kelly Elementary were levied in 2012. State officials found that the school did not maintain a clear paper trail of teachers or administrators who were involved in overseeing student testing in 2012. The investigation also targeted Associate Superintendent Andre Denson for failing to conduct a thorough investigation of the incident. Denson and two school officials were placed on paid leave following the state investigation and district administrators are handling testing at Kelly Elementary in 2014.^[17]