Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Republican primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 16 , or in-person on Nov. 6
- Early voting: Sept. 21 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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Minnesota's 1st Congressional District |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018 |
Primary: August 14, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Tim Walz (Democrat) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Minnesota |
Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Toss-up Inside Elections: Toss-up Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
U.S. Senate (regular) • U.S. Senate (special) • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th Minnesota elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
In his fourth attempt for the seat, 2016 nominee Jim Hagedorn (R) defeated state Sen. Carla Nelson (R) in the Republican primary for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District.
Hagedorn, who lost to incumbent Rep. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) by less than one percentage point in the previous election cycle, earned the district party’s endorsement at its convention in April 2018.[1] He compared himself to Reps. John Kline (R-Minn.) and Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), who each ran three or more times before being elected in the state.[2]
Hagedorn aligned himself with President Donald Trump and emphasized the farming economy, energy, and national security in his campaign.[1][3]
Nelson, who had served in the state Senate since 2011, was endorsed by Susan B. Anthony List and the National Rifle Association and reportedly encouraged to run for the seat by national party leaders. Her campaign focused on healthcare, the federal budget, and education policy.[1]
State party officials were less supportive of her run, concerned they would lose control of the state Senate if a special election were called to fill her seat in a toss-up district.[4]
On the issue of tariffs, Nelson said that China should be held accountable for intellectual property theft but expressed concern with how tariffs could impact southern Minnesota's agricultural economy.[5]
Hagedorn said that he supported Trump's plan to reset trade rules with foreign countries and called threatened tariffs part of the negotiation process.[6]
Both candidates were named to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Contenders” program.[7]
Andrew Candler (R) and Steve Williams (R) also ran for the seat.
Although the district went for Trump in the 2016 presidential election by 15 points, the Democratic incumbent held on to his seat by less than a percentage point. Daily Kos identified this district as the most vulnerable Democratic House seat.[8]
Walz did not seek re-election, running for governor of Minnesota in 2018, instead.
Minnesota voter? Dates you need to know. | |
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Primary election | August 14, 2018 |
Candidate filing deadline | June 5, 2018 |
Registration deadline | July 24, 2018 |
Absentee application deadline | August 13, 2018 |
General election | November 6, 2018 |
Voting information | |
Primary type | Open |
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day. |
For more on related elections, please see:
- Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election, 2018
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018
- Democratic Party primaries in Minnesota, 2018
- Republican Party primaries in Minnesota, 2018
Election results
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 1
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Jim Hagedorn | 60.1 | 25,431 |
![]() | Carla Nelson | 32.2 | 13,631 | |
![]() | Steve Williams | 5.1 | 2,144 | |
![]() | Andrew Candler | 2.6 | 1,107 |
Total votes: 42,313 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Top candidates
Jim Hagedorn (R)
After graduating from George Mason University, Hagedorn worked as a legislative aide to Rep. Arlan Stangeland (R-Minn.). Hagedorn worked as the director for legislative and public affairs for the Financial Management Service, a bureau of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, managing more than $2 trillion. He also worked as a congressional affairs officer for the Bureau of Engraving and Printing.[2]
Hagedorn ran for Congress in 2010, 2014, and 2016. Commenting on his fourth congressional bid, Hagedorn said his desire to partner with President Donald Trump would help. "The people who supported President Trump in the last election, the people who almost got us over the finish line in the last election, they're not upset with the president," he said. "They're really upset with Washington, particularly Republicans in the Senate who have dragged their heels."[3]
On his campaign website, Hagedorn listed energy production, the death tax, and EPA regulations affecting farmers as some of his policy priorities.[9]
Carla Nelson (R)
Nelson was first elected to the Minnesota State Senate representing District 26 in 2010. She earned her B.S. in education with an emphasis in special education from Drake University and her M.Ed. in teacher leadership from the University of Minnesota. Nelson's professional experience includes working as an educator and small business owner in the insurance industry.[10][11]
"We need someone who has a proven track record of conservative values and voting. And then, of course, it's imperative that we have someone who can win, and win in tough elections," Nelson said of her strengths as a candidate.[12]
Nelson identified affordable higher education, energy and environmental issues, and the repeal of Obamacare, as some of her policy priorities.[13]
Candidates
Republican primary candidates
Debates and forums
April 20, 2018, pre-convention debate
Hagedorn and Nelson participated in a pre-convention debate on April 20, 2018, hosted by the Blue Earth County Republicans.
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Campaign tactics and strategies
Relationship with President Donald Trump
Hagedorn and Nelson both discussed their commitment to the Trump administration's agenda in a debate in November 2017:[14]
- Hagedorn: "I want to be a conservative reinforcement in the U.S. House of Representatives led by Republicans to partner with our president to make the big changes necessary to keep moving our nation in this right direction."
- Nelson: "I am running for Congress because just like you I am disgusted at the dysfunction that we're seeing in Washington, D.C. It is past time for Congress to stand with our president...and start putting America first."
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dan Feehan | Democratic Party | $4,177,225 | $4,173,703 | $3,521 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Colin Minehart | Democratic Party | $200 | $200 | $287 | As of December 31, 2017 |
Andrew Candler | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Jim Hagedorn | Republican Party | $1,613,541 | $1,612,674 | $1,092 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Carla Nelson | Republican Party | $537,661 | $537,239 | $422 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Steve Williams | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Endorsements
The table below summarizes the endorsements Ballotpedia identified for Republican candidates in the primary for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District.
Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at editor@ballotpedia.org.
Republican candidate endorsements | ||
---|---|---|
Endorsement | Hagedorn | Nelson |
Federal officials | ||
Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.)[15] | ✔ | |
Rep. Frank Lucas (R-Okla.)[15] | ✔ | |
Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.)[15] | ✔ | |
Rep. Rodney Davis (R-Ill.)[15] | ✔ | |
Rep. Darin LaHood (R-Ill.)[15] | ✔ | |
Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.)[15] | ✔ | |
Rep. Bill Shuster (R-Pa.)[15] | ✔ | |
Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.)[15] | ✔ | |
Rep. Joe Wilson (R-S.C.)[15] | ✔ | |
Rep. Paul Mitchell (R-Mich.)[15] | ✔ | |
Organizations | ||
National Rifle Association[16] | ✔ | |
Minnesota First District Republicans[17] | ✔ | |
CatholicVote.org[18] | ✔ | |
Susan B. Anthony List[19] | ✔ | |
Winning for Women[20] | ✔ |
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, Republican primary | |||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Poll | Hagedorn (R) | Nelson (R) | Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | ||||||||||||||
Harper Polling February 19-20, 2018 | 54% | 21% | 25% | +/-4.8 | 412 | ||||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org |
Democratic district won by Donald Trump
This district was one of 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election.[21] Some were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
2018 election results in Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016 | |||||
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District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | 2018 margin | 2016 presidential margin | 2012 presidential margin |
Arizona's 1st | ![]() |
![]() |
D+7.7 | Trump+1.1 | Romney+2.5 |
Iowa's 2nd | ![]() |
![]() |
D+12.2 | Trump+4.1 | Obama+13.1 |
Illinois' 17th | ![]() |
![]() |
D+23.6 | Trump+0.7 | Obama+17.0 |
Minnesota's 1st | ![]() |
![]() |
R+0.4 | Trump+14.9 | Obama+1.4 |
Minnesota's 7th | ![]() |
![]() |
D+4.3 | Trump+30.8 | Romney+9.8 |
Minnesota's 8th | ![]() |
![]() |
R+5.5 | Trump+15.6 | Obama+5.5 |
New Hampshire's 1st | ![]() |
![]() |
D+11.7 | Trump+1.6 | Obama+1.6 |
New Jersey's 5th | ![]() |
![]() |
D+11.7 | Trump+1.1 | Romney+3.1 |
Nevada's 3rd | ![]() |
![]() |
D+9.1 | Trump+1.0 | Obama+0.8 |
New York's 18th | ![]() |
![]() |
D+10.2 | Trump+1.9 | Obama+4.3 |
Pennsylvania's 8th | ![]() |
![]() |
D+9.2 | Trump+9.6 | Obama+11.9 |
Pennsylvania's 14th | ![]() |
![]() |
R+15.9 | Trump+29.0 | Romney+17.7 |
Wisconsin's 3rd | ![]() |
![]() |
D+19.4 | Trump+4.5 | Obama+11.0 |
Click here to see the 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won.
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. |
District election history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Tim Walz (D) narrowly defeated Jim Hagedorn (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Walz faced no primary challenger, while Hagedorn defeated Steve Williams in the Republican primary on August 9, 2016.[24][25]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | ![]() |
50.3% | 169,074 | |
Republican | Jim Hagedorn | 49.6% | 166,526 | |
N/A | Write-in | 0.1% | 277 | |
Total Votes | 335,877 | |||
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
76.5% | 10,851 | ||
Steve Williams | 23.5% | 3,330 | ||
Total Votes | 14,181 | |||
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State |
2014
The 1st Congressional District of Minnesota held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Tim Walz (D) defeated challenger Jim Hagedorn (R) in the general election.
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | ![]() |
54.2% | 122,851 | |
Republican | Jim Hagedorn | 45.7% | 103,536 | |
N/A | Write-in | 0.1% | 308 | |
Total Votes | 226,695 | |||
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State |
General election candidates
Tim Walz - Incumbent
Jim Hagedorn
August 12, 2014, primary results
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Withdrew from race
2012
The 1st Congressional District of Minnesota held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012, which incumbent Tim Walz won.[30]
2010
On November 2, 2010, Tim Walz (D) won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Randy Demmer (R), Steven Wilson (I) and Lars Johnson (Party Free) in the general election.[31]
2008
On November 4, 2008, Tim Walz (D) won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Brian J. Davis (R) and Gregory Mikkelson (I) in the general election.[32]
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Minnesota's 1st Congressional District the 190th most Republican nationally.[33]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.03. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.03 points toward that party.[34]
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Nineteen of 87 Minnesota counties—21.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
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County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Beltrami County, Minnesota | 9.72% | 9.89% | 10.15% | ||||
Blue Earth County, Minnesota | 3.69% | 9.48% | 12.95% | ||||
Chippewa County, Minnesota | 28.70% | 1.87% | 5.87% | ||||
Clay County, Minnesota | 1.95% | 7.92% | 16.02% | ||||
Fillmore County, Minnesota | 21.70% | 7.34% | 8.26% | ||||
Freeborn County, Minnesota | 17.24% | 14.11% | 17.13% | ||||
Houston County, Minnesota | 13.87% | 3.16% | 10.69% | ||||
Itasca County, Minnesota | 16.35% | 9.83% | 12.92% | ||||
Kittson County, Minnesota | 22.05% | 6.03% | 18.54% | ||||
Koochiching County, Minnesota | 19.85% | 9.45% | 10.10% | ||||
Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota | 25.60% | 0.90% | 5.92% | ||||
Mahnomen County, Minnesota | 2.92% | 18.56% | 25.31% | ||||
Mower County, Minnesota | 7.82% | 22.61% | 23.61% | ||||
Nicollet County, Minnesota | 3.04% | 7.83% | 10.52% | ||||
Norman County, Minnesota | 13.34% | 10.79% | 26.94% | ||||
Rice County, Minnesota | 3.06% | 8.27% | 11.50% | ||||
Swift County, Minnesota | 25.57% | 9.83% | 13.79% | ||||
Traverse County, Minnesota | 23.30% | 4.44% | 5.41% | ||||
Winona County, Minnesota | 2.90% | 12.85% | 19.09% |
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Minnesota with 46.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1860 and 2016, Minnesota voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 47.5 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Minnesota voted Democratic all five times.[35]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Minnesota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[36][37]
In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 68 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 27.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 62 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 30.4 points. Clinton won 12 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 23.8 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
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District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
1A | 43.15% | 54.54% | R+11.4 | 27.87% | 64.99% | R+37.1 | R |
1B | 46.10% | 51.92% | R+5.8 | 31.45% | 61.37% | R+29.9 | R |
2A | 48.08% | 50.09% | R+2 | 33.59% | 60.04% | R+26.4 | R |
2B | 42.17% | 56.05% | R+13.9 | 29.64% | 64.36% | R+34.7 | R |
3A | 55.31% | 42.36% | D+13 | 43.14% | 49.65% | R+6.5 | D |
3B | 60.19% | 38.11% | D+22.1 | 50.13% | 42.59% | D+7.5 | D |
4A | 55.32% | 42.31% | D+13 | 48.97% | 41.71% | D+7.3 | D |
4B | 46.65% | 51.41% | R+4.8 | 35.41% | 57.18% | R+21.8 | D |
5A | 52.05% | 45.83% | D+6.2 | 39.67% | 51.97% | R+12.3 | R |
5B | 49.48% | 48.58% | D+0.9 | 35.93% | 57.00% | R+21.1 | R |
6A | 63.20% | 34.57% | D+28.6 | 44.68% | 47.85% | R+3.2 | D |
6B | 61.82% | 35.90% | D+25.9 | 45.05% | 47.77% | R+2.7 | D |
7A | 67.15% | 30.27% | D+36.9 | 62.12% | 28.28% | D+33.8 | D |
7B | 69.99% | 27.63% | D+42.4 | 59.01% | 32.66% | D+26.3 | D |
8A | 39.32% | 59.07% | R+19.8 | 31.05% | 62.92% | R+31.9 | R |
8B | 40.24% | 57.98% | R+17.7 | 27.72% | 65.66% | R+37.9 | R |
9A | 37.61% | 60.36% | R+22.7 | 23.48% | 70.76% | R+47.3 | R |
9B | 37.60% | 60.41% | R+22.8 | 21.44% | 73.05% | R+51.6 | R |
10A | 42.68% | 55.47% | R+12.8 | 31.71% | 61.41% | R+29.7 | R |
10B | 44.58% | 53.66% | R+9.1 | 31.38% | 62.81% | R+31.4 | R |
11A | 62.19% | 35.79% | D+26.4 | 46.93% | 45.13% | D+1.8 | D |
11B | 46.72% | 50.92% | R+4.2 | 31.58% | 61.39% | R+29.8 | R |
12A | 46.30% | 51.70% | R+5.4 | 32.87% | 59.48% | R+26.6 | R |
12B | 36.32% | 61.98% | R+25.7 | 23.78% | 70.60% | R+46.8 | R |
13A | 41.20% | 57.04% | R+15.8 | 29.40% | 63.98% | R+34.6 | R |
13B | 40.74% | 57.46% | R+16.7 | 29.76% | 63.36% | R+33.6 | R |
14A | 47.70% | 50.25% | R+2.6 | 40.14% | 51.73% | R+11.6 | R |
14B | 53.28% | 43.56% | D+9.7 | 43.47% | 46.88% | R+3.4 | R |
15A | 42.24% | 55.67% | R+13.4 | 26.60% | 66.72% | R+40.1 | R |
15B | 34.92% | 62.92% | R+28 | 21.90% | 71.37% | R+49.5 | R |
16A | 45.53% | 52.33% | R+6.8 | 31.31% | 60.77% | R+29.5 | R |
16B | 40.08% | 57.64% | R+17.6 | 26.83% | 64.99% | R+38.2 | R |
17A | 47.24% | 50.94% | R+3.7 | 29.82% | 63.25% | R+33.4 | R |
17B | 47.10% | 51.19% | R+4.1 | 34.89% | 57.60% | R+22.7 | R |
18A | 39.80% | 57.83% | R+18 | 26.88% | 65.04% | R+38.2 | R |
18B | 37.06% | 60.70% | R+23.6 | 25.23% | 67.02% | R+41.8 | R |
19A | 52.51% | 45.09% | D+7.4 | 43.51% | 47.62% | R+4.1 | D |
19B | 57.05% | 39.91% | D+17.1 | 48.70% | 40.94% | D+7.8 | D |
20A | 40.38% | 57.73% | R+17.4 | 30.47% | 62.58% | R+32.1 | R |
20B | 53.95% | 43.71% | D+10.2 | 47.02% | 45.86% | D+1.2 | D |
21A | 51.06% | 46.99% | D+4.1 | 40.39% | 51.63% | R+11.2 | R |
21B | 44.07% | 53.85% | R+9.8 | 30.94% | 61.07% | R+30.1 | R |
22A | 41.53% | 56.48% | R+14.9 | 26.80% | 66.15% | R+39.4 | R |
22B | 44.04% | 54.37% | R+10.3 | 30.63% | 63.03% | R+32.4 | R |
23A | 39.08% | 58.83% | R+19.8 | 26.82% | 66.32% | R+39.5 | R |
23B | 47.30% | 50.57% | R+3.3 | 32.70% | 59.47% | R+26.8 | R |
24A | 45.64% | 52.20% | R+6.6 | 33.70% | 57.84% | R+24.1 | R |
24B | 47.07% | 50.66% | R+3.6 | 33.44% | 58.77% | R+25.3 | R |
25A | 45.24% | 52.32% | R+7.1 | 37.03% | 52.94% | R+15.9 | R |
25B | 53.14% | 44.51% | D+8.6 | 50.23% | 40.22% | D+10 | D |
26A | 57.64% | 39.78% | D+17.9 | 54.11% | 36.72% | D+17.4 | D |
26B | 44.47% | 53.59% | R+9.1 | 38.48% | 53.17% | R+14.7 | R |
27A | 55.57% | 42.31% | D+13.3 | 37.42% | 55.76% | R+18.3 | R |
27B | 59.95% | 37.84% | D+22.1 | 41.96% | 50.58% | R+8.6 | D |
28A | 56.63% | 40.82% | D+15.8 | 46.44% | 44.13% | D+2.3 | D |
28B | 51.67% | 46.36% | D+5.3 | 37.30% | 55.31% | R+18 | R |
29A | 37.73% | 60.22% | R+22.5 | 28.82% | 63.10% | R+34.3 | R |
29B | 40.42% | 57.50% | R+17.1 | 30.71% | 61.38% | R+30.7 | R |
30A | 39.60% | 58.57% | R+19 | 30.48% | 61.61% | R+31.1 | R |
30B | 36.49% | 61.79% | R+25.3 | 29.58% | 62.31% | R+32.7 | R |
31A | 35.58% | 62.46% | R+26.9 | 23.94% | 69.10% | R+45.2 | R |
31B | 38.58% | 59.53% | R+20.9 | 29.00% | 63.74% | R+34.7 | R |
32A | 41.06% | 56.85% | R+15.8 | 28.13% | 64.23% | R+36.1 | R |
32B | 42.98% | 55.07% | R+12.1 | 31.50% | 60.69% | R+29.2 | R |
33A | 36.20% | 62.39% | R+26.2 | 37.84% | 54.78% | R+16.9 | R |
33B | 43.71% | 54.67% | R+11 | 46.18% | 45.68% | D+0.5 | R |
34A | 40.35% | 58.12% | R+17.8 | 40.80% | 51.26% | R+10.5 | R |
34B | 46.78% | 51.60% | R+4.8 | 47.91% | 43.62% | D+4.3 | R |
35A | 45.40% | 52.32% | R+6.9 | 37.77% | 53.46% | R+15.7 | R |
35B | 41.04% | 57.50% | R+16.5 | 36.48% | 55.65% | R+19.2 | R |
36A | 48.54% | 49.44% | R+0.9 | 44.09% | 47.07% | R+3 | R |
36B | 53.38% | 45.11% | D+8.3 | 52.16% | 40.08% | D+12.1 | D |
37A | 53.32% | 44.53% | D+8.8 | 45.38% | 46.05% | R+0.7 | D |
37B | 48.64% | 49.49% | R+0.9 | 43.74% | 48.04% | R+4.3 | R |
38A | 44.17% | 53.89% | R+9.7 | 40.36% | 51.11% | R+10.7 | R |
38B | 46.39% | 51.99% | R+5.6 | 45.39% | 46.56% | R+1.2 | R |
39A | 45.12% | 53.25% | R+8.1 | 40.85% | 51.57% | R+10.7 | R |
39B | 47.78% | 50.62% | R+2.8 | 45.97% | 46.25% | R+0.3 | R |
40A | 69.71% | 28.69% | D+41 | 67.81% | 26.13% | D+41.7 | D |
40B | 68.60% | 29.42% | D+39.2 | 65.29% | 27.68% | D+37.6 | D |
41A | 59.61% | 38.36% | D+21.2 | 55.79% | 35.28% | D+20.5 | D |
41B | 62.30% | 35.32% | D+27 | 62.11% | 29.12% | D+33 | D |
42A | 51.48% | 46.50% | D+5 | 52.61% | 38.39% | D+14.2 | R |
42B | 56.76% | 41.28% | D+15.5 | 56.05% | 35.37% | D+20.7 | D |
43A | 56.52% | 41.92% | D+14.6 | 54.01% | 38.15% | D+15.9 | D |
43B | 57.50% | 40.33% | D+17.2 | 52.35% | 39.35% | D+13 | D |
44A | 47.99% | 50.66% | R+2.7 | 53.47% | 38.83% | D+14.6 | R |
44B | 54.39% | 44.30% | D+10.1 | 57.27% | 35.36% | D+21.9 | D |
45A | 59.17% | 38.72% | D+20.5 | 58.13% | 33.53% | D+24.6 | D |
45B | 63.39% | 34.34% | D+29.1 | 64.02% | 27.43% | D+36.6 | D |
46A | 64.31% | 33.66% | D+30.7 | 66.50% | 25.81% | D+40.7 | D |
46B | 65.79% | 32.01% | D+33.8 | 68.45% | 23.31% | D+45.1 | D |
47A | 35.32% | 63.07% | R+27.7 | 31.29% | 60.91% | R+29.6 | R |
47B | 42.17% | 56.19% | R+14 | 44.19% | 47.17% | R+3 | R |
48A | 52.14% | 46.19% | D+5.9 | 55.55% | 36.50% | D+19.1 | D |
48B | 46.72% | 51.70% | R+5 | 53.09% | 39.54% | D+13.6 | R |
49A | 52.29% | 46.68% | D+5.6 | 60.37% | 32.60% | D+27.8 | R |
49B | 52.45% | 46.18% | D+6.3 | 56.50% | 36.35% | D+20.2 | D |
50A | 63.81% | 33.98% | D+29.8 | 61.93% | 29.97% | D+32 | D |
50B | 56.96% | 40.99% | D+16 | 55.51% | 36.29% | D+19.2 | D |
51A | 55.56% | 42.44% | D+13.1 | 54.45% | 37.27% | D+17.2 | D |
51B | 51.44% | 46.79% | D+4.7 | 54.17% | 37.06% | D+17.1 | D |
52A | 58.72% | 39.32% | D+19.4 | 56.76% | 34.99% | D+21.8 | D |
52B | 52.90% | 45.36% | D+7.5 | 49.95% | 42.08% | D+7.9 | R |
53A | 56.63% | 41.59% | D+15 | 54.59% | 37.63% | D+17 | D |
53B | 46.78% | 51.95% | R+5.2 | 50.81% | 42.01% | D+8.8 | R |
54A | 55.87% | 41.75% | D+14.1 | 46.83% | 43.55% | D+3.3 | R |
54B | 49.32% | 48.74% | D+0.6 | 42.76% | 48.63% | R+5.9 | R |
55A | 46.18% | 51.67% | R+5.5 | 43.39% | 47.89% | R+4.5 | R |
55B | 38.11% | 60.15% | R+22 | 34.43% | 57.98% | R+23.5 | R |
56A | 47.26% | 50.85% | R+3.6 | 47.12% | 44.13% | D+3 | R |
56B | 49.26% | 48.97% | D+0.3 | 48.62% | 43.89% | D+4.7 | R |
57A | 50.85% | 47.34% | D+3.5 | 49.06% | 42.78% | D+6.3 | D |
57B | 48.75% | 49.64% | R+0.9 | 48.21% | 43.72% | D+4.5 | R |
58A | 42.24% | 56.02% | R+13.8 | 40.36% | 51.99% | R+11.6 | R |
58B | 42.46% | 55.75% | R+13.3 | 34.86% | 57.04% | R+22.2 | R |
59A | 84.23% | 13.96% | D+70.3 | 78.85% | 13.74% | D+65.1 | D |
59B | 80.65% | 17.23% | D+63.4 | 79.46% | 13.04% | D+66.4 | D |
60A | 77.47% | 18.61% | D+58.9 | 76.38% | 14.48% | D+61.9 | D |
60B | 76.39% | 19.31% | D+57.1 | 79.57% | 11.88% | D+67.7 | D |
61A | 78.23% | 19.40% | D+58.8 | 81.47% | 12.06% | D+69.4 | D |
61B | 78.20% | 19.94% | D+58.3 | 81.29% | 12.45% | D+68.8 | D |
62A | 86.72% | 9.26% | D+77.5 | 84.08% | 7.57% | D+76.5 | D |
62B | 86.87% | 10.09% | D+76.8 | 85.70% | 6.89% | D+78.8 | D |
63A | 82.84% | 14.33% | D+68.5 | 81.97% | 10.62% | D+71.4 | D |
63B | 73.83% | 23.99% | D+49.8 | 73.80% | 18.58% | D+55.2 | D |
64A | 76.89% | 20.30% | D+56.6 | 78.82% | 13.58% | D+65.2 | D |
64B | 70.63% | 27.37% | D+43.3 | 74.41% | 18.39% | D+56 | D |
65A | 83.74% | 13.76% | D+70 | 80.78% | 12.13% | D+68.6 | D |
65B | 77.60% | 19.70% | D+57.9 | 74.28% | 17.59% | D+56.7 | D |
66A | 65.92% | 31.91% | D+34 | 67.89% | 23.85% | D+44 | D |
66B | 78.86% | 18.90% | D+60 | 76.62% | 15.90% | D+60.7 | D |
67A | 76.07% | 21.79% | D+54.3 | 70.99% | 21.62% | D+49.4 | D |
67B | 74.76% | 23.00% | D+51.8 | 70.67% | 22.02% | D+48.6 | D |
Total | 52.84% | 45.12% | D+7.7 | 46.88% | 45.34% | D+1.5 | - |
Source: Daily Kos |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Minnesota heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in Minnesota.
- Democrats held 5 of 8 U.S. House seats in Minnesota.
State executives
- The governor of Minnesota was Democrat Mark Dayton. The state held an election for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.
State legislature
- Republicans had a 77-56 majority in the state House. The state Senate was tied, with 33 Republicans and 33 Democrats.
Trifecta status
- Minnesota was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Mark Dayton (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Minnesota elections, 2018
Minnesota held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- Two U.S. Senate seats (one regular election and one special election)
- 8 U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- Five lower state executive positions
- 134 state House seats
- One state Senate seat
- Municipal elections in St. Paul, Hennepin County, and Ramsey County
Demographics
Demographic data for Minnesota | ||
---|---|---|
Minnesota | U.S. | |
Total population: | 5,482,435 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 79,627 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 84.8% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 5.5% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 4.4% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 1% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2.7% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 5% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 92.4% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 33.7% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $61,492 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 12.2% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Minnesota. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2016, Minnesota's three largest cities were Minneapolis (pop. est. 422,000), St. Paul (pop. est. 307,000), and Rochester (pop. est. 116,000).[38]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Minnesota Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Minnesota every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Minnesota 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
46.4% | ![]() |
44.9% | 1.5% |
2012 | ![]() |
52.7% | ![]() |
45.0% | 7.7% |
2008 | ![]() |
54.1% | ![]() |
43.8% | 10.3% |
2004 | ![]() |
51.1% | ![]() |
47.6% | 3.5% |
2000 | ![]() |
47.9% | ![]() |
45.5% | 2.4% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Minnesota 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | ![]() |
53.2% | ![]() |
42.9% | 10.3% |
2012 | ![]() |
65.2% | ![]() |
30.5% | 34.7% |
2008 | ![]() |
41.99% | ![]() |
41.98% | 0.01% |
2006 | ![]() |
58.1% | ![]() |
37.9% | 20.2% |
2002 | ![]() |
49.5% | ![]() |
47.3% | 2.2% |
2000 | ![]() |
48.8% | ![]() |
43.3% | 5.5% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Minnesota.
Election results (Governor), Minnesota 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | ![]() |
50.1% | ![]() |
44.5% | 5.6% |
2010 | ![]() |
43.6% | ![]() |
43.2% | 0.4% |
2006 | ![]() |
46.7% | ![]() |
45.7% | 1.0% |
2002 | ![]() |
44.4% | ![]() |
36.5% | 7.9% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Minnesota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Minnesota Party Control: 1992-2024
Four years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | I | I | I | I | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D |
House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota, 2018
- United States House elections in Minnesota (August 14, 2018 Republican primaries)
- Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 Fairmont Sentinel, "Hagedorn, Feehan get party nods," April 23, 2018
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Hagedorn for Congress, "About," accessed July 11, 2018
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 MPR News, "Hagedorn, sole Republican running, sees path to a seat in Congress," September 1, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Daily Kos Elections editors holding Q&A this morning—livestream available," August 10, 2017
- ↑ Minnesota Post, "For Minnesota’s Trump-boosting congressional candidates, trade war rhetoric creates political divide," April 11, 2018
- ↑ CBS Minnesota, "Jim Hagedorn: 2018 Election Guide," July 24, 2018
- ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Adds 14 Candidates to Young Guns 'Contenders,'" May 2, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "The most vulnerable House members of 2018, in two charts," January 14, 2018
- ↑ Hagedorn for Congress, "Issues," accessed July 11, 2018
- ↑ Carla Nelson, "About Carla," accessed July 11, 2018
- ↑ LinkedIn, "Carla Nelson," accessed July 11, 2018
- ↑ Mankato Free Press, "Nelson touts winning, conservative record in House race," February 7, 2018
- ↑ Carla Nelson, "Priorities," accessed July 11, 2018
- ↑ Post Bulletin, "Hagedorn, Nelson embrace Trump in first debate," November 13, 2017
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 Hagedorn for Congress, "Endorsements," accessed July 11, 2018
- ↑ Scribd, "NRA Endorsement Letter of Carla Nelson," July 31, 2018
- ↑ Star Tribune, "Jim Hagedorn, Dan Feehan endorsed for U.S. House seat in First District," April 22, 2018
- ↑ CatholicVote.org, "CatholicVote.org Endorses Carla Nelson for Congress," April 25, 2018
- ↑ Susan B. Anthony List, "Nat’l Pro-life Group Endorses Carla Nelson in MN-01," March 26, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "DCCC adds 9 to ‘Red to Blue,’ spurned candidates blast committee," March 23, 2018
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 8th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 17th District held by Cartwright. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 14th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 18th District Lamb won in a March 2018 special election. Tim Murphy (R) won the old 18th District in the 2016 election. Click here to read more.
- ↑ Minnesota Secretary of State, "Candidate Filings," accessed June 1, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Minnesota House Primaries Results," August 9, 2016
- ↑ Minnesota Secretary of State, "2014 State General Election Candidate Filings," accessed June 11, 2014
- ↑ The State.com, "Political newcomer joins GOP 1st District race," accessed August 19, 2013
- ↑ 28.0 28.1 NU Journal, "Hagedorn to announce run for 1st District today," accessed September 4, 2013
- ↑ 29.0 29.1 Star Tribune, "GOP delegates select businessman Miller to oppose Rep. Tim Walz after 2 challengers step aside," accessed April 8, 2014
- ↑ ABC News, "General Election Results 2012-Minnesota," accessed November 7, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Minnesota," accessed June 29, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Minnesota Demographics, "Minnesota Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018