Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Democratic primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 16 , or in-person on Nov. 6
- Early voting: Sept. 21 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.
2020 →
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Minnesota's 8th Congressional District |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018 |
Primary: August 14, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Rick Nolan (Democrat) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Minnesota |
Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican Inside Elections: Lean Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
U.S. Senate (regular) • U.S. Senate (special) • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th Minnesota elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Joe Radinovich (D), a former state representative and campaign manager to departing incumbent Rep. Rick Nolan (D), defeated four other candidates in the Democratic primary in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District on August 14, 2018.
No candidate received an endorsement from the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party at its multi-ballot nominating convention in April 2018. Former FBI analyst Leah Phifer (D) and Radinovich were the remaining candidates on the final ballot, but neither crossed the 60 percent threshold of support necessary for an endorsement.[1]
Phifer withdrew from the race several days later, narrowing the field to Radinovich, North Branch Mayor Kirsten Hagen Kennedy (D), former news anchor Michelle Lee (D), state Rep. Jason Metsa (D), and Soren Christian Sorensen.
Metsa received the endorsement of the United Steelworkers and other local unions, while Lee opposed copper-nickel mining and the PolyMet copper mine project.[2]
Lee came in second in the race, with 28 percent support to Radinovich's 44 percent.
This district was seen as critical for the party to retake control of the U.S. House. Although represented by a Democrat in 2016, the district flipped from supporting Barack Obama by 6 points to backing Donald Trump by 15 points in the presidential election that year.[3][4]
Minnesota voter? Dates you need to know. | |
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Primary election | August 14, 2018 |
Candidate filing deadline | June 5, 2018 |
Registration deadline | July 24, 2018 |
Absentee application deadline | August 13, 2018 |
General election | November 6, 2018 |
Voting information | |
Primary type | Open |
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day. |
For more on related elections, please see:
- Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Republican primary)
- Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2018
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018
- Democratic Party primaries in Minnesota, 2018
- Republican Party primaries in Minnesota, 2018
Candidates and election results
Joe Radinovich defeated Michelle Lee, Jason Metsa, Kirsten Hagen Kennedy, and Soren Christian Sorensen in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 8 on August 14, 2018.
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 8
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Joe Radinovich | 44.1 | 30,732 |
![]() | Michelle Lee | 27.5 | 19,182 | |
![]() | Jason Metsa | 13.2 | 9,229 | |
![]() | Kirsten Hagen Kennedy | 11.7 | 8,133 | |
![]() | Soren Christian Sorensen | 3.5 | 2,415 |
Total votes: 69,691 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Leah Phifer (D)
Debates and forums
July 20, 2018, debate
Kennedy, Lee, Metsa, and Radinovich participated in a radio debate at Minnesota Public Radio's Duluth studio on July 20, 2018. The candidates discussed mining, healthcare, and the Trump administration.[5]
- Find the Mesabi Daily News round-up of the debate here.
- Find the MPR News round-up of the debate here.
Campaign themes and policy stances
Mining and environmental policy
The Democratic-Farmer-Labor candidates participated in a candidate forum on April 4, 2018, where they offered differing opinions on the interests of pro-union miners and environmentalists:[2]
- Kennedy noted that not mining in Minnesota would result in importing those materials from third-world countries where fewer worker protections exist. "We want to move toward a green economy; we want to use technology. To move us there we need minerals and the minerals we are looking for are found in Minnesota on the Iron Range," she said.
- Lee said, "I support iron ore mining and unions. I am not convinced we can do copper-nickel mining in a water-rich environment."
- Metsa said experts involved in the permitting process should be trusted. "When it comes to our projects, we need to support our state employees and public servants and they have recommended that these things can move forward. ... Their work is essentially what they have spent their fields and entire careers learning expertise in. We need to trust [their judgment]," he said.
- Phifer said, "Copper-nickel mining is what we're discussing here today. ... The PolyMet/Twin Metals copper-nickel type of mining has never been done in Minnesota and it is very, very different and it is very, very risky in a water-rich environment like we have here." She added that she would likely be uncomfortable with such a project, regardless of whether companies prepared for cleanup activities.
- According to the Duluth News Tribune, Radinovich "seemed to agree with precious-metals mining in northern Minnesota, calling for transparency and high standards that he said could 'assure proper closure after the life of the project.'"
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted by candidates for Minnesota's 8th Congressional District to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kirsten Hagen Kennedy | Democratic Party | $21,443 | $15,716 | $5,165 | As of September 30, 2018 |
Michelle Lee | Democratic Party | $64,189 | $65,689 | $0 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Jason Metsa | Democratic Party | $286,672 | $286,473 | $199 | As of October 15, 2018 |
Joe Radinovich | Democratic Party | $2,432,207 | $2,390,503 | $41,704 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Soren Christian Sorensen | Democratic Party | $610 | $536 | $74 | As of June 30, 2018 |
Pete Stauber | Republican Party | $1,777,703 | $1,759,367 | $18,336 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Harry Welty | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Ray Sandman | Independence Party | $20,291 | $21,694 | $0 | As of December 31, 2018 |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, Democratic primary | |||||||||||||||||||
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Poll | ![]() |
![]() | ![]() | ![]() | Other/Undecided | Margin of Error | Sample Size | ||||||||||||
Victoria Research May 12-17, 2018 | 17% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 52% | +/-4.9 | 400 | ||||||||||||
Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org |
Campaign tactics and strategies
Campaign advertisements
Joe Radinovich
Support
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Endorsements
Ballotpedia tracks endorsements by organizations and elected officials. We have located the following endorsements in this race. To notify us of other endorsements, please email us.
Democratic primary election endorsements | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Endorsement | Kennedy | Lee | Metsa | Radinovich |
Federal officials | ||||
Rep. Rick Nolan (D)[6] | ✔ | |||
State officials | ||||
Lieutenant Governor Yvonne Prettner Solon (D)[7] | ✔ | |||
Former state Rep. Jeremy Kalin (D)[8] | ✔ | |||
Minnesota Senate Minority Leader Tom Bakk (D)[9] | ✔ | |||
Organizations | ||||
American Federation of Government Employees [10] | ✔ | |||
United Steelworkers[11] | ✔ | |||
Boilermakers Local 647[9] | ✔ | |||
FCW Local 1189[9] | ✔ |
Timeline
- July 20, 2018: Kennedy, Lee, Metsa, and Radinovich participated in a radio debate at Minnesota Public Radio's Duluth studio. The candidates discussed mining, healthcare, and the Trump administration.[5]
- July 9, 2018: Radinovich released his first television ad where he identifies himself as a "fourth generation Iron ranger" and highlights his professional experience as a union organizer and legislator.
- April 18, 2018: Phifer withdrew from the race, saying, "A divisive primary season would only serve to weaken the party and distract from the issues affecting the people of the 8th District."[12]
- April 14, 2018: No candidate received an endorsement from the Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party at its multi-ballot nominating convention. Leah Phifer and Joe Radinovich were the remaining candidates on the final ballot, but neither crossed the 60 percent threshold of support necessary for an endorsement. Phifer said, "We were consistently ahead on all 10 ballots which I think means we built the strongest ground game across all 18 counties and made sure no voices were left unheard." Radinovich claimed the endorsement of incumbent Rep. Rick Nolan (D), although Nolan's office called it a preference and said "he will reserve judgment until he sees who decides to run in the primary."[13][1]
- March 30, 2018: Lieutenant Governor Yvonne Prettner Solon (D) endorsed Lee and joined her campaign as a senior political adviser.[7]
- March 26, 2018: The United Steelworkers (USW) endorsed Metsa. "As a state representative, Jason came to our union hall to help laid-off workers apply for unemployment and fought to extend those benefits as well as health insurance when our members lost theirs," said USW Local 6860 President Brian Zarn.[11]
Democratic district won by Donald Trump
This district was one of 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election.[14] Some were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
2018 election results in Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016 | |||||
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District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | 2018 margin | 2016 presidential margin | 2012 presidential margin |
Arizona's 1st | ![]() |
![]() |
D+7.7 | Trump+1.1 | Romney+2.5 |
Iowa's 2nd | ![]() |
![]() |
D+12.2 | Trump+4.1 | Obama+13.1 |
Illinois' 17th | ![]() |
![]() |
D+23.6 | Trump+0.7 | Obama+17.0 |
Minnesota's 1st | ![]() |
![]() |
R+0.4 | Trump+14.9 | Obama+1.4 |
Minnesota's 7th | ![]() |
![]() |
D+4.3 | Trump+30.8 | Romney+9.8 |
Minnesota's 8th | ![]() |
![]() |
R+5.5 | Trump+15.6 | Obama+5.5 |
New Hampshire's 1st | ![]() |
![]() |
D+11.7 | Trump+1.6 | Obama+1.6 |
New Jersey's 5th | ![]() |
![]() |
D+11.7 | Trump+1.1 | Romney+3.1 |
Nevada's 3rd | ![]() |
![]() |
D+9.1 | Trump+1.0 | Obama+0.8 |
New York's 18th | ![]() |
![]() |
D+10.2 | Trump+1.9 | Obama+4.3 |
Pennsylvania's 8th | ![]() |
![]() |
D+9.2 | Trump+9.6 | Obama+11.9 |
Pennsylvania's 14th | ![]() |
![]() |
R+15.9 | Trump+29.0 | Romney+17.7 |
Wisconsin's 3rd | ![]() |
![]() |
D+19.4 | Trump+4.5 | Obama+11.0 |
Click here to see the 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won.
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Lean Republican | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean Republican | Lean Republican | Toss-up | Toss-up | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. |
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Nineteen of 87 Minnesota counties—21.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
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County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Beltrami County, Minnesota | 9.72% | 9.89% | 10.15% | ||||
Blue Earth County, Minnesota | 3.69% | 9.48% | 12.95% | ||||
Chippewa County, Minnesota | 28.70% | 1.87% | 5.87% | ||||
Clay County, Minnesota | 1.95% | 7.92% | 16.02% | ||||
Fillmore County, Minnesota | 21.70% | 7.34% | 8.26% | ||||
Freeborn County, Minnesota | 17.24% | 14.11% | 17.13% | ||||
Houston County, Minnesota | 13.87% | 3.16% | 10.69% | ||||
Itasca County, Minnesota | 16.35% | 9.83% | 12.92% | ||||
Kittson County, Minnesota | 22.05% | 6.03% | 18.54% | ||||
Koochiching County, Minnesota | 19.85% | 9.45% | 10.10% | ||||
Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota | 25.60% | 0.90% | 5.92% | ||||
Mahnomen County, Minnesota | 2.92% | 18.56% | 25.31% | ||||
Mower County, Minnesota | 7.82% | 22.61% | 23.61% | ||||
Nicollet County, Minnesota | 3.04% | 7.83% | 10.52% | ||||
Norman County, Minnesota | 13.34% | 10.79% | 26.94% | ||||
Rice County, Minnesota | 3.06% | 8.27% | 11.50% | ||||
Swift County, Minnesota | 25.57% | 9.83% | 13.79% | ||||
Traverse County, Minnesota | 23.30% | 4.44% | 5.41% | ||||
Winona County, Minnesota | 2.90% | 12.85% | 19.09% |
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Minnesota with 46.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1860 and 2016, Minnesota voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 47.5 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Minnesota voted Democratic all five times.[17]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Minnesota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[18][19]
In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 68 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 27.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 62 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 30.4 points. Clinton won 12 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 23.8 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
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District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
1A | 43.15% | 54.54% | R+11.4 | 27.87% | 64.99% | R+37.1 | R |
1B | 46.10% | 51.92% | R+5.8 | 31.45% | 61.37% | R+29.9 | R |
2A | 48.08% | 50.09% | R+2 | 33.59% | 60.04% | R+26.4 | R |
2B | 42.17% | 56.05% | R+13.9 | 29.64% | 64.36% | R+34.7 | R |
3A | 55.31% | 42.36% | D+13 | 43.14% | 49.65% | R+6.5 | D |
3B | 60.19% | 38.11% | D+22.1 | 50.13% | 42.59% | D+7.5 | D |
4A | 55.32% | 42.31% | D+13 | 48.97% | 41.71% | D+7.3 | D |
4B | 46.65% | 51.41% | R+4.8 | 35.41% | 57.18% | R+21.8 | D |
5A | 52.05% | 45.83% | D+6.2 | 39.67% | 51.97% | R+12.3 | R |
5B | 49.48% | 48.58% | D+0.9 | 35.93% | 57.00% | R+21.1 | R |
6A | 63.20% | 34.57% | D+28.6 | 44.68% | 47.85% | R+3.2 | D |
6B | 61.82% | 35.90% | D+25.9 | 45.05% | 47.77% | R+2.7 | D |
7A | 67.15% | 30.27% | D+36.9 | 62.12% | 28.28% | D+33.8 | D |
7B | 69.99% | 27.63% | D+42.4 | 59.01% | 32.66% | D+26.3 | D |
8A | 39.32% | 59.07% | R+19.8 | 31.05% | 62.92% | R+31.9 | R |
8B | 40.24% | 57.98% | R+17.7 | 27.72% | 65.66% | R+37.9 | R |
9A | 37.61% | 60.36% | R+22.7 | 23.48% | 70.76% | R+47.3 | R |
9B | 37.60% | 60.41% | R+22.8 | 21.44% | 73.05% | R+51.6 | R |
10A | 42.68% | 55.47% | R+12.8 | 31.71% | 61.41% | R+29.7 | R |
10B | 44.58% | 53.66% | R+9.1 | 31.38% | 62.81% | R+31.4 | R |
11A | 62.19% | 35.79% | D+26.4 | 46.93% | 45.13% | D+1.8 | D |
11B | 46.72% | 50.92% | R+4.2 | 31.58% | 61.39% | R+29.8 | R |
12A | 46.30% | 51.70% | R+5.4 | 32.87% | 59.48% | R+26.6 | R |
12B | 36.32% | 61.98% | R+25.7 | 23.78% | 70.60% | R+46.8 | R |
13A | 41.20% | 57.04% | R+15.8 | 29.40% | 63.98% | R+34.6 | R |
13B | 40.74% | 57.46% | R+16.7 | 29.76% | 63.36% | R+33.6 | R |
14A | 47.70% | 50.25% | R+2.6 | 40.14% | 51.73% | R+11.6 | R |
14B | 53.28% | 43.56% | D+9.7 | 43.47% | 46.88% | R+3.4 | R |
15A | 42.24% | 55.67% | R+13.4 | 26.60% | 66.72% | R+40.1 | R |
15B | 34.92% | 62.92% | R+28 | 21.90% | 71.37% | R+49.5 | R |
16A | 45.53% | 52.33% | R+6.8 | 31.31% | 60.77% | R+29.5 | R |
16B | 40.08% | 57.64% | R+17.6 | 26.83% | 64.99% | R+38.2 | R |
17A | 47.24% | 50.94% | R+3.7 | 29.82% | 63.25% | R+33.4 | R |
17B | 47.10% | 51.19% | R+4.1 | 34.89% | 57.60% | R+22.7 | R |
18A | 39.80% | 57.83% | R+18 | 26.88% | 65.04% | R+38.2 | R |
18B | 37.06% | 60.70% | R+23.6 | 25.23% | 67.02% | R+41.8 | R |
19A | 52.51% | 45.09% | D+7.4 | 43.51% | 47.62% | R+4.1 | D |
19B | 57.05% | 39.91% | D+17.1 | 48.70% | 40.94% | D+7.8 | D |
20A | 40.38% | 57.73% | R+17.4 | 30.47% | 62.58% | R+32.1 | R |
20B | 53.95% | 43.71% | D+10.2 | 47.02% | 45.86% | D+1.2 | D |
21A | 51.06% | 46.99% | D+4.1 | 40.39% | 51.63% | R+11.2 | R |
21B | 44.07% | 53.85% | R+9.8 | 30.94% | 61.07% | R+30.1 | R |
22A | 41.53% | 56.48% | R+14.9 | 26.80% | 66.15% | R+39.4 | R |
22B | 44.04% | 54.37% | R+10.3 | 30.63% | 63.03% | R+32.4 | R |
23A | 39.08% | 58.83% | R+19.8 | 26.82% | 66.32% | R+39.5 | R |
23B | 47.30% | 50.57% | R+3.3 | 32.70% | 59.47% | R+26.8 | R |
24A | 45.64% | 52.20% | R+6.6 | 33.70% | 57.84% | R+24.1 | R |
24B | 47.07% | 50.66% | R+3.6 | 33.44% | 58.77% | R+25.3 | R |
25A | 45.24% | 52.32% | R+7.1 | 37.03% | 52.94% | R+15.9 | R |
25B | 53.14% | 44.51% | D+8.6 | 50.23% | 40.22% | D+10 | D |
26A | 57.64% | 39.78% | D+17.9 | 54.11% | 36.72% | D+17.4 | D |
26B | 44.47% | 53.59% | R+9.1 | 38.48% | 53.17% | R+14.7 | R |
27A | 55.57% | 42.31% | D+13.3 | 37.42% | 55.76% | R+18.3 | R |
27B | 59.95% | 37.84% | D+22.1 | 41.96% | 50.58% | R+8.6 | D |
28A | 56.63% | 40.82% | D+15.8 | 46.44% | 44.13% | D+2.3 | D |
28B | 51.67% | 46.36% | D+5.3 | 37.30% | 55.31% | R+18 | R |
29A | 37.73% | 60.22% | R+22.5 | 28.82% | 63.10% | R+34.3 | R |
29B | 40.42% | 57.50% | R+17.1 | 30.71% | 61.38% | R+30.7 | R |
30A | 39.60% | 58.57% | R+19 | 30.48% | 61.61% | R+31.1 | R |
30B | 36.49% | 61.79% | R+25.3 | 29.58% | 62.31% | R+32.7 | R |
31A | 35.58% | 62.46% | R+26.9 | 23.94% | 69.10% | R+45.2 | R |
31B | 38.58% | 59.53% | R+20.9 | 29.00% | 63.74% | R+34.7 | R |
32A | 41.06% | 56.85% | R+15.8 | 28.13% | 64.23% | R+36.1 | R |
32B | 42.98% | 55.07% | R+12.1 | 31.50% | 60.69% | R+29.2 | R |
33A | 36.20% | 62.39% | R+26.2 | 37.84% | 54.78% | R+16.9 | R |
33B | 43.71% | 54.67% | R+11 | 46.18% | 45.68% | D+0.5 | R |
34A | 40.35% | 58.12% | R+17.8 | 40.80% | 51.26% | R+10.5 | R |
34B | 46.78% | 51.60% | R+4.8 | 47.91% | 43.62% | D+4.3 | R |
35A | 45.40% | 52.32% | R+6.9 | 37.77% | 53.46% | R+15.7 | R |
35B | 41.04% | 57.50% | R+16.5 | 36.48% | 55.65% | R+19.2 | R |
36A | 48.54% | 49.44% | R+0.9 | 44.09% | 47.07% | R+3 | R |
36B | 53.38% | 45.11% | D+8.3 | 52.16% | 40.08% | D+12.1 | D |
37A | 53.32% | 44.53% | D+8.8 | 45.38% | 46.05% | R+0.7 | D |
37B | 48.64% | 49.49% | R+0.9 | 43.74% | 48.04% | R+4.3 | R |
38A | 44.17% | 53.89% | R+9.7 | 40.36% | 51.11% | R+10.7 | R |
38B | 46.39% | 51.99% | R+5.6 | 45.39% | 46.56% | R+1.2 | R |
39A | 45.12% | 53.25% | R+8.1 | 40.85% | 51.57% | R+10.7 | R |
39B | 47.78% | 50.62% | R+2.8 | 45.97% | 46.25% | R+0.3 | R |
40A | 69.71% | 28.69% | D+41 | 67.81% | 26.13% | D+41.7 | D |
40B | 68.60% | 29.42% | D+39.2 | 65.29% | 27.68% | D+37.6 | D |
41A | 59.61% | 38.36% | D+21.2 | 55.79% | 35.28% | D+20.5 | D |
41B | 62.30% | 35.32% | D+27 | 62.11% | 29.12% | D+33 | D |
42A | 51.48% | 46.50% | D+5 | 52.61% | 38.39% | D+14.2 | R |
42B | 56.76% | 41.28% | D+15.5 | 56.05% | 35.37% | D+20.7 | D |
43A | 56.52% | 41.92% | D+14.6 | 54.01% | 38.15% | D+15.9 | D |
43B | 57.50% | 40.33% | D+17.2 | 52.35% | 39.35% | D+13 | D |
44A | 47.99% | 50.66% | R+2.7 | 53.47% | 38.83% | D+14.6 | R |
44B | 54.39% | 44.30% | D+10.1 | 57.27% | 35.36% | D+21.9 | D |
45A | 59.17% | 38.72% | D+20.5 | 58.13% | 33.53% | D+24.6 | D |
45B | 63.39% | 34.34% | D+29.1 | 64.02% | 27.43% | D+36.6 | D |
46A | 64.31% | 33.66% | D+30.7 | 66.50% | 25.81% | D+40.7 | D |
46B | 65.79% | 32.01% | D+33.8 | 68.45% | 23.31% | D+45.1 | D |
47A | 35.32% | 63.07% | R+27.7 | 31.29% | 60.91% | R+29.6 | R |
47B | 42.17% | 56.19% | R+14 | 44.19% | 47.17% | R+3 | R |
48A | 52.14% | 46.19% | D+5.9 | 55.55% | 36.50% | D+19.1 | D |
48B | 46.72% | 51.70% | R+5 | 53.09% | 39.54% | D+13.6 | R |
49A | 52.29% | 46.68% | D+5.6 | 60.37% | 32.60% | D+27.8 | R |
49B | 52.45% | 46.18% | D+6.3 | 56.50% | 36.35% | D+20.2 | D |
50A | 63.81% | 33.98% | D+29.8 | 61.93% | 29.97% | D+32 | D |
50B | 56.96% | 40.99% | D+16 | 55.51% | 36.29% | D+19.2 | D |
51A | 55.56% | 42.44% | D+13.1 | 54.45% | 37.27% | D+17.2 | D |
51B | 51.44% | 46.79% | D+4.7 | 54.17% | 37.06% | D+17.1 | D |
52A | 58.72% | 39.32% | D+19.4 | 56.76% | 34.99% | D+21.8 | D |
52B | 52.90% | 45.36% | D+7.5 | 49.95% | 42.08% | D+7.9 | R |
53A | 56.63% | 41.59% | D+15 | 54.59% | 37.63% | D+17 | D |
53B | 46.78% | 51.95% | R+5.2 | 50.81% | 42.01% | D+8.8 | R |
54A | 55.87% | 41.75% | D+14.1 | 46.83% | 43.55% | D+3.3 | R |
54B | 49.32% | 48.74% | D+0.6 | 42.76% | 48.63% | R+5.9 | R |
55A | 46.18% | 51.67% | R+5.5 | 43.39% | 47.89% | R+4.5 | R |
55B | 38.11% | 60.15% | R+22 | 34.43% | 57.98% | R+23.5 | R |
56A | 47.26% | 50.85% | R+3.6 | 47.12% | 44.13% | D+3 | R |
56B | 49.26% | 48.97% | D+0.3 | 48.62% | 43.89% | D+4.7 | R |
57A | 50.85% | 47.34% | D+3.5 | 49.06% | 42.78% | D+6.3 | D |
57B | 48.75% | 49.64% | R+0.9 | 48.21% | 43.72% | D+4.5 | R |
58A | 42.24% | 56.02% | R+13.8 | 40.36% | 51.99% | R+11.6 | R |
58B | 42.46% | 55.75% | R+13.3 | 34.86% | 57.04% | R+22.2 | R |
59A | 84.23% | 13.96% | D+70.3 | 78.85% | 13.74% | D+65.1 | D |
59B | 80.65% | 17.23% | D+63.4 | 79.46% | 13.04% | D+66.4 | D |
60A | 77.47% | 18.61% | D+58.9 | 76.38% | 14.48% | D+61.9 | D |
60B | 76.39% | 19.31% | D+57.1 | 79.57% | 11.88% | D+67.7 | D |
61A | 78.23% | 19.40% | D+58.8 | 81.47% | 12.06% | D+69.4 | D |
61B | 78.20% | 19.94% | D+58.3 | 81.29% | 12.45% | D+68.8 | D |
62A | 86.72% | 9.26% | D+77.5 | 84.08% | 7.57% | D+76.5 | D |
62B | 86.87% | 10.09% | D+76.8 | 85.70% | 6.89% | D+78.8 | D |
63A | 82.84% | 14.33% | D+68.5 | 81.97% | 10.62% | D+71.4 | D |
63B | 73.83% | 23.99% | D+49.8 | 73.80% | 18.58% | D+55.2 | D |
64A | 76.89% | 20.30% | D+56.6 | 78.82% | 13.58% | D+65.2 | D |
64B | 70.63% | 27.37% | D+43.3 | 74.41% | 18.39% | D+56 | D |
65A | 83.74% | 13.76% | D+70 | 80.78% | 12.13% | D+68.6 | D |
65B | 77.60% | 19.70% | D+57.9 | 74.28% | 17.59% | D+56.7 | D |
66A | 65.92% | 31.91% | D+34 | 67.89% | 23.85% | D+44 | D |
66B | 78.86% | 18.90% | D+60 | 76.62% | 15.90% | D+60.7 | D |
67A | 76.07% | 21.79% | D+54.3 | 70.99% | 21.62% | D+49.4 | D |
67B | 74.76% | 23.00% | D+51.8 | 70.67% | 22.02% | D+48.6 | D |
Total | 52.84% | 45.12% | D+7.7 | 46.88% | 45.34% | D+1.5 | - |
Source: Daily Kos |
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Minnesota's 8th Congressional District the 199th most Republican nationally.[20]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.10. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.10 points toward that party.[21]
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Minnesota heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in Minnesota.
- Democrats held 5 of 8 U.S. House seats in Minnesota.
State executives
- The governor of Minnesota was Democrat Mark Dayton. The state held an election for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.
State legislature
- Republicans had a 77-56 majority in the state House. The state Senate was tied, with 33 Republicans and 33 Democrats.
Trifecta status
- Minnesota was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Mark Dayton (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Minnesota elections, 2018
Minnesota held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- Two U.S. Senate seats (one regular election and one special election)
- 8 U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- Five lower state executive positions
- 134 state House seats
- One state Senate seat
- Municipal elections in St. Paul, Hennepin County, and Ramsey County
Demographics
Demographic data for Minnesota | ||
---|---|---|
Minnesota | U.S. | |
Total population: | 5,482,435 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 79,627 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 84.8% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 5.5% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 4.4% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 1% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2.7% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 5% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 92.4% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 33.7% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $61,492 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 12.2% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Minnesota. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2016, Minnesota's three largest cities were Minneapolis (pop. est. 422,000), St. Paul (pop. est. 307,000), and Rochester (pop. est. 116,000).[22]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Minnesota Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Minnesota every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), Minnesota 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
46.4% | ![]() |
44.9% | 1.5% |
2012 | ![]() |
52.7% | ![]() |
45.0% | 7.7% |
2008 | ![]() |
54.1% | ![]() |
43.8% | 10.3% |
2004 | ![]() |
51.1% | ![]() |
47.6% | 3.5% |
2000 | ![]() |
47.9% | ![]() |
45.5% | 2.4% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), Minnesota 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | ![]() |
53.2% | ![]() |
42.9% | 10.3% |
2012 | ![]() |
65.2% | ![]() |
30.5% | 34.7% |
2008 | ![]() |
41.99% | ![]() |
41.98% | 0.01% |
2006 | ![]() |
58.1% | ![]() |
37.9% | 20.2% |
2002 | ![]() |
49.5% | ![]() |
47.3% | 2.2% |
2000 | ![]() |
48.8% | ![]() |
43.3% | 5.5% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Minnesota.
Election results (Governor), Minnesota 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2014 | ![]() |
50.1% | ![]() |
44.5% | 5.6% |
2010 | ![]() |
43.6% | ![]() |
43.2% | 0.4% |
2006 | ![]() |
46.7% | ![]() |
45.7% | 1.0% |
2002 | ![]() |
44.4% | ![]() |
36.5% | 7.9% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Minnesota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Minnesota Party Control: 1992-2024
Four years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | I | I | I | I | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D |
House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota, 2018
- United States House elections in Minnesota (August 14, 2018 Democratic primaries)
- Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 MinnPost, "Eighth District DFL convention ends with no endorsement," April 14, 2018
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Duluth News Tribune, "Mining separates 8th DFL candidates," April 4, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 6/8," June 8, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Minnesota Rep. Nolan won't run for reelection," February 9, 2018
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 MPR News, "Eighth District DFL hopefuls face off in Duluth debate," July 20, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Joe Radinovich," April 14, 2018
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 FOX 21 News, "8th District Congressional Candidate Michelle Lee Announces Large Endorsement," March 30, 2018
- ↑ Vote Kirsten, "Endorsements," accessed July 3, 2018
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 Jason Metsa for Congress, "Home," accessed July 3, 2018
- ↑ PR Newswire, "AFGE Endorses Minnesota's Joe Radinovich for Congress," April 13, 2018
- ↑ 11.0 11.1 PR Newswire, "Steelworkers Endorse Jason Metsa for Congress in Minnesota's Eighth District," March 26, 2018
- ↑ Roll Call, "Phifer Drops out of Race to Succeed Nolan in Minnesota’s 8th District," April 18, 2018
- ↑ KBJR, "DFL Convention ends in no endorsement for 8th congressional district," April 14, 2018
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 8th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 17th District held by Cartwright. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 14th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 18th District Lamb won in a March 2018 special election. Tim Murphy (R) won the old 18th District in the 2016 election. Click here to read more.
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Minnesota," accessed June 29, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Minnesota Demographics, "Minnesota Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018