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Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Republican primary)

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Minnesota's 8th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Rick Nolan (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Minnesota
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+4
Cook Political Report: Lean Republican
Inside Elections: Lean Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Minnesota's 8th Congressional District
U.S. Senate (regular) • U.S. Senate (special) • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Minnesota elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

St. Louis County Commissioner Pete Stauber (R) and former Duluth school board member Harry Welty (R) competed for the Republican nomination for Minnesota's 8th Congressional District. Incumbent Rep. Rick Nolan (D), who won re-election in 2016 by less than one percentage point, announced in February 2018 that he was not seeking re-election.[1][2][3][4]


Minnesota voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionAugust 14, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineJune 5, 2018
Registration deadlineJuly 24, 2018
Absentee application deadlineAugust 13, 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeOpen
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

Pete Stauber defeated Harry Welty in the Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 8 on August 14, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 8

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Pete Stauber
Pete Stauber
 
90.0
 
45,391
Image of Harry Welty
Harry Welty
 
10.0
 
5,047

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 50,438
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Kirsten Hagen Kennedy Democratic Party $21,443 $15,716 $5,165 As of September 30, 2018
Michelle Lee Democratic Party $64,189 $65,689 $0 As of December 31, 2018
Jason Metsa Democratic Party $286,672 $286,473 $199 As of October 15, 2018
Joe Radinovich Democratic Party $2,432,207 $2,390,503 $41,704 As of December 31, 2018
Soren Christian Sorensen Democratic Party $610 $536 $74 As of June 30, 2018
Pete Stauber Republican Party $1,777,703 $1,759,367 $18,336 As of December 31, 2018
Harry Welty Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Ray Sandman Independence Party $20,291 $21,694 $0 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Democratic district won by Donald Trump

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election.[5] Some were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.


2018 election results in Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran D+7.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+2.5
Iowa's 2nd Democratic Party Dave Loebsack Democratic Party Dave Loebsack D+12.2 Trump+4.1 Obama+13.1
Illinois' 17th Democratic Party Cheri Bustos Democratic Party Cheri Bustos D+23.6 Trump+0.7 Obama+17.0
Minnesota's 1st Democratic Party Tim Walz Republican Party Jim Hagedorn R+0.4 Trump+14.9 Obama+1.4
Minnesota's 7th Democratic Party Collin Peterson Democratic Party Collin Peterson D+4.3 Trump+30.8 Romney+9.8
Minnesota's 8th Democratic Party Rick Nolan Republican Party Pete Stauber R+5.5 Trump+15.6 Obama+5.5
New Hampshire's 1st Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party Chris Pappas D+11.7 Trump+1.6 Obama+1.6
New Jersey's 5th Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer D+11.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+3.1
Nevada's 3rd Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Democratic Party Susie Lee D+9.1 Trump+1.0 Obama+0.8
New York's 18th Democratic Party Sean Patrick Maloney Democratic Party Sean Patrick Maloney D+10.2 Trump+1.9 Obama+4.3
Pennsylvania's 8th Democratic Party Matt Cartwright[6] Democratic Party Matt Cartwright D+9.2 Trump+9.6 Obama+11.9
Pennsylvania's 14th Democratic Party Conor Lamb[7] Republican Party Guy Reschenthaler R+15.9 Trump+29.0 Romney+17.7
Wisconsin's 3rd Democratic Party Ron Kind Democratic Party Ron Kind D+19.4 Trump+4.5 Obama+11.0


Click here to see the 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Minnesota's 8th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Lean Republican Lean RepublicanToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Lean Republican Toss-upToss-upToss-up
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Lean RepublicanToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Minnesota's 8th Congressional District the 199th most Republican nationally.[8]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.10. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.10 points toward that party.[9]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Nineteen of 87 Minnesota counties—21.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Beltrami County, Minnesota 9.72% 9.89% 10.15%
Blue Earth County, Minnesota 3.69% 9.48% 12.95%
Chippewa County, Minnesota 28.70% 1.87% 5.87%
Clay County, Minnesota 1.95% 7.92% 16.02%
Fillmore County, Minnesota 21.70% 7.34% 8.26%
Freeborn County, Minnesota 17.24% 14.11% 17.13%
Houston County, Minnesota 13.87% 3.16% 10.69%
Itasca County, Minnesota 16.35% 9.83% 12.92%
Kittson County, Minnesota 22.05% 6.03% 18.54%
Koochiching County, Minnesota 19.85% 9.45% 10.10%
Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota 25.60% 0.90% 5.92%
Mahnomen County, Minnesota 2.92% 18.56% 25.31%
Mower County, Minnesota 7.82% 22.61% 23.61%
Nicollet County, Minnesota 3.04% 7.83% 10.52%
Norman County, Minnesota 13.34% 10.79% 26.94%
Rice County, Minnesota 3.06% 8.27% 11.50%
Swift County, Minnesota 25.57% 9.83% 13.79%
Traverse County, Minnesota 23.30% 4.44% 5.41%
Winona County, Minnesota 2.90% 12.85% 19.09%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Minnesota with 46.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1860 and 2016, Minnesota voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 47.5 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Minnesota voted Democratic all five times.[10]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Minnesota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[11][12]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 68 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 27.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 62 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 30.4 points. Clinton won 12 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 23.8 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Minnesota heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans had a 77-56 majority in the state House. The state Senate was tied, with 33 Republicans and 33 Democrats.

Trifecta status

  • Minnesota was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Mark Dayton (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Minnesota elections, 2018

Minnesota held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Minnesota
 MinnesotaU.S.
Total population:5,482,435316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):79,6273,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:84.8%73.6%
Black/African American:5.5%12.6%
Asian:4.4%5.1%
Native American:1%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.7%3%
Hispanic/Latino:5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:92.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:33.7%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,492$53,889
Persons below poverty level:12.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Minnesota.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Minnesota's three largest cities were Minneapolis (pop. est. 422,000), St. Paul (pop. est. 307,000), and Rochester (pop. est. 116,000).[13]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Minnesota Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Minnesota every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 46.4% Republican Party Donald Trump 44.9% 1.5%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 45.0% 7.7%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 54.1% Republican Party John McCain 43.8% 10.3%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 51.1% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.6% 3.5%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 47.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 45.5% 2.4%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Al Franken 53.2% Republican Party Mike McFadden 42.9% 10.3%
2012 Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar 65.2% Republican Party Kurt Bills 30.5% 34.7%
2008 Democratic Party Al Franken 41.99% Republican Party Norm Coleman 41.98% 0.01%
2006 Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar 58.1% Republican Party Mark Kennedy 37.9% 20.2%
2002 Republican Party Norm Coleman 49.5% Democratic Party Walter Mondale 47.3% 2.2%
2000 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 48.8% Republican Party Rod Grams 43.3% 5.5%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Minnesota.

Election results (Governor), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 50.1% Republican Party Jeff Johnson 44.5% 5.6%
2010 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 43.6% Republican Party Tom Emmer 43.2% 0.4%
2006 Republican Party Tim Pawlenty 46.7% Democratic Party Mike Hatch 45.7% 1.0%
2002 Republican Party Tim Pawlenty 44.4% Democratic Party Roger Moe 36.5% 7.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Minnesota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Minnesota 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2014 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2012 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2010 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2004 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2002 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2000 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Minnesota Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R I I I I R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R D D D D R R R R R R D D D
House D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D R R D D R R R R D D D D D D S


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Star-Tribune, "U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan won't run for re-election in Eighth District," "U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan won't run for re-election in Eighth District," February 10, 2018
  2. ↑ Roll Call, "Nolan’s Former Campaign Manager Running for Minnesota’s 8th District," February 15, 2018
  3. ↑ KBJR, "Former Duluth School Board member seeking 8th District Seat," June 4th, 2018
  4. ↑ Politico, "Minnesota Rep. Nolan won't run for reelection," February 9, 2018
  5. ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  6. ↑ The new 8th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 17th District held by Cartwright. Click here to read more.
  7. ↑ The new 14th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 18th District Lamb won in a March 2018 special election. Tim Murphy (R) won the old 18th District in the 2016 election. Click here to read more.
  8. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  9. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  10. ↑ 270towin.com, "Minnesota," accessed June 29, 2017
  11. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  12. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  13. ↑ Minnesota Demographics, "Minnesota Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018


Minnesota's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Amy Klobuchar (D)
Tina Smith (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Tom Emmer (R)
District 7
District 8
Democratic Party (6)
Republican Party (4)


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