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Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022
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| Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: May 31, 2022 |
| Primary: August 9, 2022 General: November 8, 2022 |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in Minnesota |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022 |
| See also |
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th Minnesota elections, 2022 U.S. Congress elections, 2022 U.S. Senate elections, 2022 U.S. House elections, 2022 |
All U.S. House districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Minnesota, held elections in 2022. The general election was on November 8, 2022. The primary was scheduled for August 9, 2022. The filing deadline was May 31, 2022.
The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 118th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.
Republicans won a 222-213 majority in the U.S. House in 2022.
Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have received 59.5% of the vote in this district and Donald Trump (R) would have received 38.5%.[1]
For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:
- Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 9 Democratic primary)
- Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 9 Republican primary)
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Minnesota District 3
Incumbent Dean Phillips defeated Tom Weiler in the general election for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on November 8, 2022.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Dean Phillips (D) | 59.6 | 198,883 |
 | Tom Weiler (R) | 40.4 | 134,797 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.1 | 241 | ||
| Total votes: 333,921 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
The Democratic primary election was canceled. Incumbent Dean Phillips advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
Republican primary election
The Republican primary election was canceled. Tom Weiler advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3.
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Mark Blaxill (R)
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Minnesota
Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses
Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.
No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[2] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[3] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.
| U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Report | Close of books | Filing deadline |
| Year-end 2021 | 12/31/2021 | 1/31/2022 |
| April quarterly | 3/31/2022 | 4/15/2022 |
| July quarterly | 6/30/2022 | 7/15/2022 |
| October quarterly | 9/30/2022 | 10/15/2022 |
| Pre-general | 10/19/2022 | 10/27/2022 |
| Post-general | 11/28/2022 | 12/08/2022 |
| Year-end 2022 | 12/31/2022 | 1/31/2023 |
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dean Phillips | Democratic Party | $2,298,670 | $2,340,307 | $176,429 | As of December 31, 2022 |
| Tom Weiler | Republican Party | $681,469 | $674,472 | $6,997 | As of December 31, 2022 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[4]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[5][6][7]
| Race ratings: Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 8, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | October 25, 2022 | October 18, 2022 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week. | |||||||||
Ballot access requirements
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Minnesota in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Minnesota, click here.
| Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2022 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
| Minnesota | U.S. House | Ballot-qualified party[8] | 1,000 | $300.00 | 5/31/2022 | Source |
| Minnesota | U.S. House | Unaffiliated | 1,000 | N/A | 5/31/2022 | Source |
District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district before and after redistricting.
- Effect of redistricting - How districts in the state changed as a result of redistricting following the 2020 census.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2022 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
District map
Below was the map in use at the time of the election, enacted as part of the 2020 redistricting cycle, compared to the map in place before the election.
Minnesota District 3
until January 2, 2023
Click a district to compare boundaries.
Minnesota District 3
starting January 3, 2023
Click a district to compare boundaries.
Effect of redistricting
The table below details the results of the 2020 presidential election in each district at the time of the 2022 election and its political predecessor district.[9] This data was compiled by Daily Kos Elections.[10]
| 2020 presidential results by Congressional district, Minnesota | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | 2022 district | Political predecessor district | ||
Joe Biden 
|
Donald Trump 
|
Joe Biden
|
Donald Trump
| |
| Minnesota's 1st | 44.3% | 53.5% | 43.9% | 54.0% |
| Minnesota's 2nd | 52.5% | 45.4% | 52.4% | 45.5% |
| Minnesota's 3rd | 59.5% | 38.5% | 58.7% | 39.4% |
| Minnesota's 4th | 67.8% | 30.2% | 67.5% | 30.5% |
| Minnesota's 5th | 80.6% | 17.4% | 80.3% | 17.7% |
| Minnesota's 6th | 40.1% | 57.7% | 38.8% | 59.0% |
| Minnesota's 7th | 32.5% | 65.7% | 34.4% | 63.8% |
| Minnesota's 8th | 43.4% | 54.7% | 41.7% | 56.3% |
Competitiveness
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Minnesota.
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Minnesota in 2022. Information below was calculated on August 1, 2022, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Thirty-two candidates filed to run for Minnesota's eight U.S. House districts, including 18 Democrats and 14 Republicans. That's four candidates per district, less than the 4.63 candidates per district in 2020 and the 4.75 in 2018.
This was the first election to take place under new district lines following the 2020 census. Minnesota was apportioned eight districts, the same number it was apportioned after the 2010 census. The 32 candidates running this year were five fewer than the 37 candidates who ran in 2020 and six fewer than the 38 who ran in 2018. Thirty candidates ran in 2016, 19 in 2014, and 28 in 2012.
One district — the 1st — was open. That was one more than in 2020, when there were no open seats, and two fewer than in 2018, when there were three open seats. Former Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) — the incumbent in the 1st district — passed away while in office on February 17, 2022. A special election to fill the seat was scheduled for August 9, 2022.
Eight candidates — three Republicans and five Democrats, including incumbent Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) — filed to run in the 5th district, the most candidates who filed for a seat this year. There were nine contested primaries this year, five Democratic and four Republican. That number was down from 10 contested primaries in 2020 and 2018.
Four incumbents — two Democrats and two Republicans — did not face any primary challengers. Democratic and Republican candidates filed to run in all eight districts, so no seats were guaranteed to either party this year.
Presidential elections
Partisan Voter Index
Heading into the 2022 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+8. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Minnesota's 3rd the 144th most Democratic district nationally.[11]
2020 presidential election results
The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| 2020 presidential results in Minnesota's 3rd based on 2022 district lines | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden
|
Donald Trump
| |||
| 59.5% | 38.5% | |||
Presidential voting history
- See also: Presidential election in Minnesota, 2020
Minnesota presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 20 Democratic wins
- 10 Republican wins
- 1 other win
| Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winning Party | R | R | R | P[12] | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Demographics
The table below details demographic data in Minnesota and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.
| Demographic Data for Minnesota | ||
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | United States | |
| Population | 5,706,494 | 331,449,281 |
| Land area (sq mi) | 79,631 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White | 81.6% | 70.4% |
| Black/African American | 6.4% | 12.6% |
| Asian | 4.9% | 5.6% |
| Native American | 1% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander | 0% | 0.2% |
| Other (single race) | 2.1% | 5.1% |
| Multiple | 3.9% | 5.2% |
| Hispanic/Latino | 5.5% | 18.2% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate | 93.4% | 88.5% |
| College graduation rate | 36.8% | 32.9% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income | $73,382 | $64,994 |
| Persons below poverty level | 9.3% | 12.8% |
| Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2015-2020). | ||
| **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
State party control
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Minnesota's congressional delegation as of November 2022.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Minnesota, November 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Republican | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 8 | 10 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Minnesota's top four state executive offices as of November 2022.
| State executive officials in Minnesota, November 2022 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | Tim Walz
|
| Lieutenant Governor | Peggy Flanagan
|
| Secretary of State | Steve Simon
|
| Attorney General | Keith Ellison
|
State legislature
The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Minnesota State Legislature as of November 2022.
Minnesota State Senate
| Party | As of November 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 31 | |
| Republican Party | 34 | |
| Independent | 1 | |
| Vacancies | 1 | |
| Total | 67 | |
Minnesota House of Representatives
| Party | As of November 2022 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 69 | |
| Republican Party | 63 | |
| Independent | 1 | |
| Vacancies | 1 | |
| Total | 134 | |
Trifecta control
As of November 2022, Minnesota was a divided government, with Democrats controlling the governorship and a majority in the house and Republicans controlling a majority in the state senate. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.
Minnesota Party Control: 1992-2022
Two years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | I | I | I | I | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D |
District history
2020
See also: Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020 (August 11 Democratic primary)
Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020 (August 11 Republican primary)
General election
General election for U.S. House Minnesota District 3
Incumbent Dean Phillips defeated Kendall Qualls in the general election for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Dean Phillips (D) | 55.6 | 246,666 |
 | Kendall Qualls (R) | 44.3 | 196,625 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.1 | 312 | ||
| Total votes: 443,603 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Gary Heyer (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3
Incumbent Dean Phillips defeated Cole Young in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on August 11, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Dean Phillips | 90.7 | 73,011 |
 | Cole Young | 9.3 | 7,443 | |
| Total votes: 80,454 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3
Kendall Qualls defeated Leslie Davis in the Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on August 11, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Kendall Qualls | 75.9 | 25,405 |
 | Leslie Davis | 24.1 | 8,060 | |
| Total votes: 33,465 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Minnesota District 3
Dean Phillips defeated incumbent Erik Paulsen in the general election for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Dean Phillips (D) | 55.6 | 202,404 |
 | Erik Paulsen (R) | 44.2 | 160,839 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.2 | 706 | ||
| Total votes: 363,949 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3
Dean Phillips defeated Cole Young in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on August 14, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Dean Phillips | 81.6 | 56,677 |
| Cole Young | 18.4 | 12,784 | |
| Total votes: 69,461 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Alicia Donahue (D)
- Brian Santa Maria (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3
Incumbent Erik Paulsen advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on August 14, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Erik Paulsen | 100.0 | 39,077 |
| Total votes: 39,077 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as a race to watch. Incumbent Erik Paulsen (R) defeated Terri Bonoff (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[13][14]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Erik Paulsen Incumbent |
56.7% | 223,077 | |
| Democratic | Terri Bonoff | 43% | 169,243 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.3% | 1,144 | |
| Total Votes | 393,464 | |||
| Source: Minnesota Secretary of State | ||||
|
Primary candidates:[15] |
|
Democratic  |
Republican |
2014
The 3rd Congressional District of Minnesota held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Erik Paulsen (R) defeated Sharon Sund (D) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Erik Paulsen Incumbent |
62.1% | 167,515 | |
| Democratic | Sharon Sund | 37.8% | 101,846 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0.1% | 224 | |
| Total Votes | 269,585 | |||
| Source: Minnesota Secretary of State | ||||
August 12, 2014, primary results
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|
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See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Petition signatures only required in lieu of a filing fee.
- ↑ Political predecessor districts are determined primarily based on incumbents and where each chose to seek re-election.
- ↑ Daily Kos Elections, "Daily Kos Elections 2020 presidential results by congressional district (old CDs vs. new CDs)," accessed May 12, 2022
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed February 6, 2023
- ↑ Progressive Party
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Minnesota Secretary of State, "Candidate Filings," accessed June 1, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Minnesota House Primaries Results," August 9, 2016
- ↑ Candidates are listed by party and alphabetically within each party.
- ↑ StarTribune, "State Sen. Bonoff: Deeply concerned about partisanship in bid to take on Rep. Paulsen," April 16, 2016
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 Minnesota Secretary of State, "2014 State General Election Candidate Filings," accessed June 11, 2014
