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Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 14 Republican primary)

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2022
2014
Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent(s):
Gov. Mark Dayton (Democrat)
Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Minnesota
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
Federal and state primary competitiveness
State executive elections in 2018
Impact of term limits in 2018
State government trifectas
State government triplexes
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
Minnesota
executive elections
Governor

Lieutenant governor
Attorney general
Secretary of state
Auditor

Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R) was the winner of the Republican gubernatorial primary. Johnson received 52.6 percent of the vote to former Gov. Tim Pawlenty's (R) 43.9 percent.

Johnson, who was serving his third term on the Hennepin County Commission at the time of the 2018 election, ran as the Republican nominee in 2014. Incumbent Mark Dayton (D), who was not seeking re-election in 2018, defeated Johnson by a 5 percent margin. Johnson's platform promised to make reduction in the scope of state government "the overriding mission of the Johnson Administration", calling for term limits for elected officials, a complete audit of state spending, and a reduction in tax rates.[1] Johnson was endorsed by the Republican Party of Minnesota at its annual convention, which Pawlenty declined to contest.[2]

Pawlenty, who was elected as governor in 2002 and again in 2006, had previously served 10 years in the state House. He held a ten-to-one fundraising advantage over Johnson as of the June campaign finance reports.[3] His platform listed his five priorities if elected as fostering job growth, improvements in living standards for senior citizens, increased efficiency for state government, a reduction in healthcare costs, and a response to the opioid crisis.[4] Pawlenty's endorsements include former Republican Party of Minnesota chairmen Chris Georgacas, Ron Eibensteiner, and Ron Carey.


For more information about gubernatorial elections in 2018, click here.

SETTING THE STAGE
  • Heading into the 2018 election, the governor of Minnesota was Mark Dayton (D), who was first elected in 2010 and re-elected in 2014. Dayton did not file for election to a third term.
  • In 2018, Minnesota was under divided government. It had held this status since 2015, when Republicans gained a majority in the Minnesota House of Representatives. Minnesota was also a Democratic triplex.
  • The Democratic candidate has won Minnesota in each presidential election between 2000 and 2016. The widest margin of victory was Barack Obama's 10 percent margin in 2008 while the narrowest was Hillary Clinton's 2 percent margin in 2016.
  • Minnesota was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election. Click here for more information on other 2018 gubernatorial elections.


    Candidates and election results

    See also: Statistics on gubernatorial candidates, 2018

    Jeff Johnson defeated Tim Pawlenty and Matt Kruse in the Republican primary for Governor of Minnesota on August 14, 2018.

    Republican primary election

    Republican primary for Governor of Minnesota

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    Image of Jeff Johnson
    Jeff Johnson
     
    52.6
     
    168,841
    Image of Tim Pawlenty
    Tim Pawlenty
     
    43.9
     
    140,743
    Matt Kruse
     
    3.5
     
    11,330

    Total votes: 320,914
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

    Lieutenant governor

    Republican Party Republican primary candidates

    Endorsements

    Campaign tactics and strategies

    Campaign advertisements

    Jeff Johnson

    Support
    "Clear Paths" - Johnson campaign ad, released July 31, 2018
    Oppose
    "Truth" - Pawlenty ad, released July 11, 2018

    Tim Pawlenty

    Support
    "Eligible" - Pawlenty campaign ad, released August 1, 2018


    Polls

    See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
    Minnesota Governor 2018, Republican primary
    Poll Poll sponsor Tim Pawlenty Jeff JohnsonUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
    Marist College
    (July 15-19, 2018)
    NBC News 51%32%17%+/-6.4340
    Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Noteworthy events

    Republican Party convention

    The Republican Party of Minnesota held its annual convention on June 1, 2018. At the convention, delegates voted on a party endorsement in the gubernatorial primary. Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson (R) received the party's endorsement at the convention.[9] Johnson faced former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who did not seek the party's nomination at the convention, in the August 14 primary.

    Past elections

    2014

    See also: Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2014

    In 2014, the ticket of Jeff Johnson and Bill Kuisle defeated the tickets of Kurt Zellers and Dean Simpson, Marty Seifert and Pam Myhra, Scott Honour and Karin Housley, and Merrill Anderson and Mark Anderson by a 6.4 percent margin.[10]

    Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota, Republican Primary, 2014
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngJeff Johnson/Bill Kuisle 30.3% 55,836
    Kurt Zellers/Dean Simpson 23.9% 44,046
    Marty Seifert/Pam Myhra 21.1% 38,851
    Scott Honour/Karin Housley 20.8% 38,377
    Merrill Anderson/Mark Anderson 3.8% 7,000
    Total Votes 184,110
    Election results via Minnesota Secretary of State.

    Campaign finance

    Race ratings

    See also: Race rating definitions and methods
    Race ratings: Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2018
    Race tracker Race ratings
    November 5, 2018 October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
    The Cook Political Report Likely Democratic Likely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
    Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Likely Democratic Likely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Democratic Lean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
    Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.


    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties by state

    Nineteen of 87 Minnesota counties—21.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

    Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
    County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
    Beltrami County, Minnesota 9.72% 9.89% 10.15%
    Blue Earth County, Minnesota 3.69% 9.48% 12.95%
    Chippewa County, Minnesota 28.70% 1.87% 5.87%
    Clay County, Minnesota 1.95% 7.92% 16.02%
    Fillmore County, Minnesota 21.70% 7.34% 8.26%
    Freeborn County, Minnesota 17.24% 14.11% 17.13%
    Houston County, Minnesota 13.87% 3.16% 10.69%
    Itasca County, Minnesota 16.35% 9.83% 12.92%
    Kittson County, Minnesota 22.05% 6.03% 18.54%
    Koochiching County, Minnesota 19.85% 9.45% 10.10%
    Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota 25.60% 0.90% 5.92%
    Mahnomen County, Minnesota 2.92% 18.56% 25.31%
    Mower County, Minnesota 7.82% 22.61% 23.61%
    Nicollet County, Minnesota 3.04% 7.83% 10.52%
    Norman County, Minnesota 13.34% 10.79% 26.94%
    Rice County, Minnesota 3.06% 8.27% 11.50%
    Swift County, Minnesota 25.57% 9.83% 13.79%
    Traverse County, Minnesota 23.30% 4.44% 5.41%
    Winona County, Minnesota 2.90% 12.85% 19.09%

    In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Minnesota with 46.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1860 and 2016, Minnesota voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 47.5 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Minnesota voted Democratic all five times.[11]

    Presidential results by legislative district

    The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Minnesota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[12][13]

    In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 68 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 27.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 62 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 30.4 points. Clinton won 12 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
    In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 23.8 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


    Recent news

    The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Minnesota governor Republican primary 2018. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

    See also

    Minnesota government:

    Elections:

    Ballotpedia exclusives:

    External links

    Footnotes