Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Guest (R)	62.3	160,284
		Michael Evans (D)	36.7	94,461
	Submit photo	Matthew Holland (Reform Party)	1.0	2,526

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 257,271
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Elections in Mississippi, 2018

• General election: Nov. 6
• Voter registration deadline: Oct. 8 (in-person); Oct. 9 (postmark by mail)
• Early voting: N/A
• Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 3

• Online registration: No
• Same-day registration: No
• Voter ID: Photo ID required
• Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

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On the ballot: U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Congressional special elections • Special state legislative • Supreme court • Appellate courts • Local judges • School boards • Democratic primaries • Republican primaries • U.S. Senate special election

2020 → ← 2016
Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 1, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018 Primary runoff: June 26, 2018 (if needed) General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Gregg Harper (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Mississippi
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+13 Cook Political Report: Solid Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District U.S. Senate (regular) • U.S. Senate (special) • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th Mississippi elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Mississippi, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Gregg Harper (R), who was first elected in 2008. Harper declined to seek re-election in 2018.

Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes Adams, Amite, Covington, Franklin, Jasper, Jefferson Davis, Kemper, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Lincoln, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee, Pike, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith, Walthall, and Wilkinson counties. It also includes portions of Clarke, Hinds, Madison and Oktibbeha counties.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Guest defeated Michael Evans and Matthew Holland in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Guest (R)	62.3	160,284
		Michael Evans (D)	36.7	94,461
	Submit photo	Matthew Holland (Reform Party)	1.0	2,526

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 257,271
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary runoff election

Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Guest defeated Whit Hughes in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 26, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Guest	65.1	31,572
		Whit Hughes	34.9	16,950

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 48,522
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Evans defeated Michael Aycox in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 5, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Evans	69.3	17,016
		Michael Aycox	30.7	7,525

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 24,541
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Omeria Scott (D)

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 5, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Guest	44.8	29,157
✔		Whit Hughes	22.2	14,464
		Perry Parker	16.2	10,562
		Sally Doty	10.2	6,608
	Submit photo	Morgan Dunn	5.9	3,820
	Submit photo	Katherine Tate	0.6	416

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 65,027
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District the 101st most Republican nationally.

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.80. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.80 points toward that party.

Campaign contributions

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Michael Evans	Democratic Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Michael Guest	Republican Party	$985,526	$952,203	$33,323	As of December 31, 2018
Matthew Holland	Reform Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election. *** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

District history

2016

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Gregg Harper (R) defeated Dennis Quinn (D), Roger Gerrard (Veterans Party of America), and Lajena Sheets (Reform) in the general election. Harper defeated Jimmy Giles in the Republican primary on March 8, 2016. Quinn defeated Nathan Stewart in the Democratic primary on March 8, 2016. Both Gerrard and Sheets were unopposed.

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Gregg Harper Incumbent	66.2%	209,490
	Democratic	Dennis Quinn	30.4%	96,101
	Veterans Party of America	Roger Gerrard	2.7%	8,696
	Reform	Lajena Sheets	0.7%	2,158
Total Votes				316,445
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Dennis Quinn	65.5%	29,149
Nathan Stewart	34.5%	15,384
Total Votes		44,533
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Gregg Harper Incumbent	89.1%	87,997
Jimmy Giles	10.9%	10,760
Total Votes		98,757
Source: Mississippi Republican Party

2014

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Mississippi held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Gregg Harper (R) defeated Doug Magee (D), Roger Gerrard (I) and Barbara Dale Washer (RP) in the general election.

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 General Election, 2014

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Gregg Harper Incumbent	68.9%	117,771
	Democratic	Doug Magee	27.9%	47,744
	Reform	Barbara Washer	0.9%	1,541
	Independent	Roger Gerrard	2.3%	3,890
Total Votes				170,946
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State Official Results

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 82 Mississippi counties—2.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County	Trump margin of victory in 2016	Obama margin of victory in 2012	Obama margin of victory in 2008
Chickasaw County, Mississippi	6.06%	4.52%	2.13%
Panola County, Mississippi	0.12%	8.62%	6.52%

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Mississippi heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

• Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Mississippi.
• Republicans held three of four U.S. House seats in Mississippi.

State executives

• As of September 2018, Republicans held eight of 11 state executive positions, with the remaining three held by Democrats.
• The governor of Mississippi was Republican Phil Bryant. Bryant won election in 2011 and was re-elected in 2015.

State legislature

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Mississippi State Legislature. They had a 74-46 majority in the state House and a 33-19 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

• Mississippi was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Mississippi elections, 2018

Mississippi held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• Both U.S. Senate seats (one regularly-scheduled and one special election)
• All four U.S. House seats
• One of nine state Supreme Court seats
• Five of 10 state Court of Appeals seats

Demographics

Demographic data for Mississippi
	Mississippi	U.S.
Total population:	2,989,390	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	46,923	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	59.2%	73.6%
Black/African American:	37.4%	12.6%
Asian:	1%	5.1%
Native American:	0.4%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0%	0.2%
Two or more:	1.2%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	2.9%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	82.3%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	20.7%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$39,665	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	27%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Mississippi. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Mississippi's three largest cities were Jackson (pop. est. 170,000), Gulfport (pop. est. 72,000), and Southaven (pop. est. 54,000).

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Mississippi from 2000 to 2016. Data comes from the Mississippi Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Mississippi every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Mississippi 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	57.9%	Hillary Clinton	40.1%	17.8%
2012	Mitt Romney	55.3%	Barack Obama	43.8%	11.5%
2008	John McCain	56.2%	Barack Obama	43.0%	13.2%
2004	George W. Bush	59.5%	John Kerry	39.8%	19.7%
2000	George W. Bush	57.6%	Al Gore	40.7%	16.9%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Mississippi from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the two seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Mississippi 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Thad Cochran	59.9%	Travis Childers	37.9%	22.0%
2012	Roger Wicker	57.2%	Albert Gore	40.6%	16.6%
2008	Thad Cochran	61.4%	Erik Fleming	38.6%	22.8%
2008 (special)	Roger Wicker	55.0%	Ronnie Musgrove	45.0%	10.0%
2006	Trent Lott	63.6%	Erik Fleming	34.9%	28.7%
2002	Thad Cochran	84.6%	Shawn O'Hara	15.4%	69.2%
2000	Trent Lott	65.9%	Troy Brown	31.6%	34.3%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Mississippi.

Election results (Governor), Mississippi 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2015	Phil Bryant	66.6%	Robert Gray	32.1%	34.5%
2011	Phil Bryant	61.0%	Johnny DuPree	39.0%	22.0%
2007	Haley Barbour	57.9%	John Eaves	42.1%	15.8%
2003	Haley Barbour	52.6%	Ronnie Musgrove	45.8%	6.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Mississippi in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Mississippi 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	4	75.0%	1	25.0%	R+2
2014	4	75.0%	1	25.0%	R+2
2012	4	75.0%	1	25.0%	R+2
2010	4	75.0%	1	25.0%	R+2
2008	1	25.0%	3	75.0%	D+2
2006	2	50.0%	2	50.0%	Even
2004	2	50.0%	2	50.0%	Even
2002	2	50.0%	2	50.0%	Even
2008	2	40.0%	3	60.0%	D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Mississippi Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

See also

• Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Democratic primary)
• Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)
• United States House of Representatives elections in Mississippi, 2018
• United States House of Representatives elections, 2018

Footnotes

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Mississippi's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Roger Wicker (R)

Representatives

District 1

Trent Kelly (R)

District 2

Bennie Thompson (D)

District 3

Michael Guest (R)

District 4

Mike Ezell (R)

Republican Party (5)

Democratic Party (1)