Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search



2022
2018
Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: January 10, 2020
Primary: March 10, 2020
Primary runoff: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Michael Guest (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Mississippi
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th
Mississippi elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Mississippi, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Michael Guest won election in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
January 10, 2020
March 10, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Michael Guest, who was first elected in 2018.

Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes Adams, Amite, Covington, Franklin, Jasper, Jefferson Davis, Kemper, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Lincoln, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee, Pike, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith, Walthall, and Wilkinson counties. It also includes portions of Clarke, Hinds, Madison and Oktibbeha counties.[1]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 38.6 35.3
Republican candidate Republican Party 60.1 64.7
Difference 21.5 29.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Mississippi modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Any individual under a physician-ordered quarantine, or an individual caring for a dependent under quarantine, due to COVID-19 was eligible to vote by absentee ballot. The absentee ballot postmark deadline was extended to November 3, 2020, and the receipt deadline to November 10, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Explore Election Results site ad border blue.png

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Incumbent Michael Guest defeated Dorothy Benford in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest (R)
 
64.7
 
221,064
Dorothy Benford (D)
 
35.3
 
120,782

Total votes: 341,846
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Dorothy Benford defeated Katelyn Lee in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on March 10, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Dorothy Benford
 
64.0
 
38,967
Image of Katelyn Lee
Katelyn Lee Candidate Connection
 
36.0
 
21,951

Total votes: 60,918
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Incumbent Michael Guest defeated James Tulp in the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on March 10, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest
 
89.8
 
67,269
Image of James Tulp
James Tulp Candidate Connection
 
10.2
 
7,618

Total votes: 74,887
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 82 Mississippi counties—2.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Chickasaw County, Mississippi 6.06% 4.52% 2.13%
Panola County, Mississippi 0.12% 8.62% 6.52%

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District the 101st most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.80. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.80 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[4] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[5] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Michael Guest Republican Party $802,896 $554,150 $282,068 As of December 31, 2020
Dorothy Benford Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]

Race ratings: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in Mississippi in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Mississippi, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
Mississippi 3rd Congressional District Qualified party N/A N/A $500.00 Fixed number 1/10/2020 Source
Mississippi 3rd Congressional District Unaffiliated 200 Fixed number $500.00 Fixed number 1/10/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Guest defeated Michael Evans and Matthew Holland in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest (R)
 
62.3
 
160,284
Image of Michael Evans
Michael Evans (D)
 
36.7
 
94,461
Matthew Holland (Reform Party)
 
1.0
 
2,526

Total votes: 257,271
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary runoff election

Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Guest defeated Whit Hughes in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 26, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest
 
65.1
 
31,572
Image of Whit Hughes
Whit Hughes
 
34.9
 
16,950

Total votes: 48,522
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Evans defeated Michael Aycox in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Michael Evans
Michael Evans
 
69.3
 
17,016
Image of Michael Aycox
Michael Aycox
 
30.7
 
7,525

Total votes: 24,541
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest
 
44.8
 
29,157
Image of Whit Hughes
Whit Hughes
 
22.2
 
14,464
Image of Perry Parker
Perry Parker
 
16.2
 
10,562
Image of Sally Doty
Sally Doty
 
10.2
 
6,608
Morgan Dunn
 
5.9
 
3,820
Katherine Tate
 
0.6
 
416

Total votes: 65,027
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Gregg Harper (R) defeated Dennis Quinn (D), Roger Gerrard (Veterans Party of America), and Lajena Sheets (Reform) in the general election. Harper defeated Jimmy Giles in the Republican primary on March 8, 2016. Quinn defeated Nathan Stewart in the Democratic primary on March 8, 2016. Both Gerrard and Sheets were unopposed.[10][11]

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGregg Harper Incumbent 66.2% 209,490
     Democratic Dennis Quinn 30.4% 96,101
     Veterans Party of America Roger Gerrard 2.7% 8,696
     Reform Lajena Sheets 0.7% 2,158
Total Votes 316,445
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State


U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDennis Quinn 65.5% 29,149
Nathan Stewart 34.5% 15,384
Total Votes 44,533
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State
U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngGregg Harper Incumbent 89.1% 87,997
Jimmy Giles 10.9% 10,760
Total Votes 98,757
Source: Mississippi Republican Party

2014

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Mississippi held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Gregg Harper (R) defeated Doug Magee (D), Roger Gerrard (I) and Barbara Dale Washer (RP) in the general election.

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGregg Harper Incumbent 68.9% 117,771
     Democratic Doug Magee 27.9% 47,744
     Reform Barbara Washer 0.9% 1,541
     Independent Roger Gerrard 2.3% 3,890
Total Votes 170,946
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State Official Results

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Mississippi Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 30, 2012
  2. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  5. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  6. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  7. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  8. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  9. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  10. Mississippi Secretary of State, "2016 Candidate Qualifying List," accessed January 12, 2016
  11. The Clarion-Ledger, "Primary Results: Statewide, county by county," March 8, 2016


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Republican Party (5)
Democratic Party (1)