Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Oct. 5
- Online registration: No
- Same-day registration: No
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: N/A
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (postmarked); Nov. 10 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: Photo ID
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
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Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: January 10, 2020 |
Primary: March 10, 2020 Primary runoff: June 23, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Michael Guest (Republican) |
How to vote |
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Mississippi |
Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th Mississippi elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Mississippi, held elections in 2020.
Incumbent Michael Guest won election in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3.
Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
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Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Michael Guest, who was first elected in 2018.
Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes Adams, Amite, Covington, Franklin, Jasper, Jefferson Davis, Kemper, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Lincoln, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee, Pike, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith, Walthall, and Wilkinson counties. It also includes portions of Clarke, Hinds, Madison and Oktibbeha counties.[1]
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Mississippi modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:
- Absentee/mail-in voting: Any individual under a physician-ordered quarantine, or an individual caring for a dependent under quarantine, due to COVID-19 was eligible to vote by absentee ballot. The absentee ballot postmark deadline was extended to November 3, 2020, and the receipt deadline to November 10, 2020.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3
Incumbent Michael Guest defeated Dorothy Benford in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Michael Guest (R) | 64.7 | 221,064 |
Dorothy Benford (D) | 35.3 | 120,782 |
Total votes: 341,846 | ||||
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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3
Dorothy Benford defeated Katelyn Lee in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on March 10, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | Dorothy Benford | 64.0 | 38,967 | |
![]() | Katelyn Lee ![]() | 36.0 | 21,951 |
Total votes: 60,918 | ||||
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Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3
Incumbent Michael Guest defeated James Tulp in the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on March 10, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Michael Guest | 89.8 | 67,269 |
James Tulp ![]() | 10.2 | 7,618 |
Total votes: 74,887 | ||||
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If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Two of 82 Mississippi counties—2.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
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County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Chickasaw County, Mississippi | 6.06% | 4.52% | 2.13% | ||||
Panola County, Mississippi | 0.12% | 8.62% | 6.52% |
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District the 101st most Republican nationally.[2]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.80. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.80 points toward that party.[3]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[4] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[5] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
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Michael Guest | Republican Party | $802,896 | $554,150 | $282,068 | As of December 31, 2020 |
Dorothy Benford | Democratic Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[6]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[7][8][9]
Race ratings: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. |
Candidate ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in Mississippi in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Mississippi, click here.
Filing requirements, 2020 | ||||||||
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State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Signature formula | Filing fee | Filing fee formula | Filing deadline | Source |
Mississippi | 3rd Congressional District | Qualified party | N/A | N/A | $500.00 | Fixed number | 1/10/2020 | Source |
Mississippi | 3rd Congressional District | Unaffiliated | 200 | Fixed number | $500.00 | Fixed number | 1/10/2020 | Source |
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3
Michael Guest defeated Michael Evans and Matthew Holland in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Michael Guest (R) | 62.3 | 160,284 |
![]() | Michael Evans (D) | 36.7 | 94,461 | |
Matthew Holland (Reform Party) | 1.0 | 2,526 |
Total votes: 257,271 | ||||
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If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Republican primary runoff election
Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3
Michael Guest defeated Whit Hughes in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 26, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Michael Guest | 65.1 | 31,572 |
![]() | Whit Hughes | 34.9 | 16,950 |
Total votes: 48,522 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3
Michael Evans defeated Michael Aycox in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Michael Evans | 69.3 | 17,016 |
![]() | Michael Aycox | 30.7 | 7,525 |
Total votes: 24,541 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Omeria Scott (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3
The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Michael Guest | 44.8 | 29,157 |
✔ | ![]() | Whit Hughes | 22.2 | 14,464 |
![]() | Perry Parker | 16.2 | 10,562 | |
![]() | Sally Doty | 10.2 | 6,608 | |
Morgan Dunn | 5.9 | 3,820 | ||
Katherine Tate | 0.6 | 416 |
Total votes: 65,027 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Gregg Harper (R) defeated Dennis Quinn (D), Roger Gerrard (Veterans Party of America), and Lajena Sheets (Reform) in the general election. Harper defeated Jimmy Giles in the Republican primary on March 8, 2016. Quinn defeated Nathan Stewart in the Democratic primary on March 8, 2016. Both Gerrard and Sheets were unopposed.[10][11]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
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Republican | ![]() |
66.2% | 209,490 | |
Democratic | Dennis Quinn | 30.4% | 96,101 | |
Veterans Party of America | Roger Gerrard | 2.7% | 8,696 | |
Reform | Lajena Sheets | 0.7% | 2,158 | |
Total Votes | 316,445 | |||
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
65.5% | 29,149 | ||
Nathan Stewart | 34.5% | 15,384 | ||
Total Votes | 44,533 | |||
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State |
Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
![]() |
89.1% | 87,997 | ||
Jimmy Giles | 10.9% | 10,760 | ||
Total Votes | 98,757 | |||
Source: Mississippi Republican Party |
2014
The 3rd Congressional District of Mississippi held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Gregg Harper (R) defeated Doug Magee (D), Roger Gerrard (I) and Barbara Dale Washer (RP) in the general election.
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
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Republican | ![]() |
68.9% | 117,771 | |
Democratic | Doug Magee | 27.9% | 47,744 | |
Reform | Barbara Washer | 0.9% | 1,541 | |
Independent | Roger Gerrard | 2.3% | 3,890 | |
Total Votes | 170,946 | |||
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State Official Results |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Mississippi, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Mississippi Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 30, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Mississippi Secretary of State, "2016 Candidate Qualifying List," accessed January 12, 2016
- ↑ The Clarion-Ledger, "Primary Results: Statewide, county by county," March 8, 2016