Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

	2022 → ← 2018
Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: January 10, 2020
	Primary: March 10, 2020; Primary runoff: June 23, 2020; General: November 3, 2020; Pre-election incumbent:; Michael Guest (Republican)
How to vote
	Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.; Voting in Mississippi
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Solid Republican; Inside Elections: Solid Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
	Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th; Mississippi elections, 2020; U.S. Congress elections, 2020; U.S. Senate elections, 2020; U.S. House elections, 2020; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Mississippi, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Michael Guest won election in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3.

Candidate filing deadline	Primary election	General election
January 10, 2020	March 10, 2020	November 3, 2020

Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Michael Guest, who was first elected in 2018.

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District was located in the eastern portion of the state and included Adams, Amite, Covington, Franklin, Jasper, Jefferson Davis, Kemper, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Lincoln, Neshoba, Newton, Noxubee, Pike, Rankin, Scott, Simpson, Smith, Walthall, and Wilkinson counties. It also included portions of Clarke, Hinds, Madison and Oktibbeha counties.^[1]

For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race	Presidential	U.S. House
Democratic candidate	38.6	35.3
Republican candidate	60.1	64.7
Difference	21.5	29.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Mississippi modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

Absentee/mail-in voting: Any individual under a physician-ordered quarantine, or an individual caring for a dependent under quarantine, due to COVID-19 was eligible to vote by absentee ballot. The absentee ballot postmark deadline was extended to November 3, 2020, and the receipt deadline to November 10, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Incumbent Michael Guest defeated Dorothy Benford in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on November 3, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Michael Guest (R)	64.7	221,064
	Submit photo	Dorothy Benford (D)	35.3	120,782

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 341,846
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Dorothy Benford defeated Katelyn Lee in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on March 10, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Submit photo	Dorothy Benford	64.0	38,967
		Katelyn Lee	36.0	21,951

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 60,918
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Incumbent Michael Guest defeated James Tulp in the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on March 10, 2020.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Michael Guest	89.8	67,269
	James Tulp	10.2	7,618

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 74,887
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 82 Mississippi counties—2.4 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County	Trump margin of victory in 2016	Obama margin of victory in 2012	Obama margin of victory in 2008
Chickasaw County, Mississippi	6.06%	4.52%	2.13%
Panola County, Mississippi	0.12%	8.62%	6.52%

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District the 101st most Republican nationally.^[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.80. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.80 points toward that party.^[3]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.^[4] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.^[5] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name

Party

Receipts*

Disbursements**

Cash on hand

Date

Michael Guest

Republican Party

$802,896

$554,150

$282,068

As of December 31, 2020

Dorothy Benford

Democratic Party

$0

Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[6]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[7]^[8]^[9]

Race ratings: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 3, 2020	October 27, 2020	October 20, 2020	October 13, 2020
The Cook Political Report	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican	Solid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican	Safe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in Mississippi in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Mississippi, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Signature formula	Filing fee	Filing fee formula	Filing deadline	Source
Mississippi	3rd Congressional District	Qualified party	N/A	N/A	$500.00	Fixed number	1/10/2020	Source
Mississippi	3rd Congressional District	Unaffiliated	200	Fixed number	$500.00	Fixed number	1/10/2020	Source

District election history