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Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary runoff)

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Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
Republican primary runoff
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 1, 2022
Primary: June 7, 2022
Primary runoff: June 28, 2022
General: November 8, 2022
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Mississippi
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2022): R+15
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
See also
Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th
Mississippi elections, 2022
U.S. Congress elections, 2022
U.S. Senate elections, 2022
U.S. House elections, 2022

Incumbent Michael Guest (R) defeated Michael Cassidy (R) in the Republican Party primary runoff in Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District on June 28, 2022. Guest, who represented this district in Congress from 2019 to 2022, advanced to the general election with 67.4% of the vote while Cassidy received 32.6%. This reversed the outcome of the June 7 primary election, where Cassidy earned more votes than Guest.[1][2][3]

In Congress, Guest was a member of the U.S. House Homeland Security, Transportation, and Ethics committees. He served as the district attorney for Rankin and Madison counties in Mississippi before his election to Congress. The Guest campaign focused on highlighting his political experience and conservative voting record in Congress. After the June 7 Republican primary, Guest thanked his supporters and said, “It appears we are headed to a runoff on 6/28. I’ll be working to earn your vote because we need PROVEN, conservative leadership with a real record of fighting for our values—that’s the difference in the runoff election!”[4][5]

Cassidy was a military veteran who said that he was running for Congress to continue serving his country. The Cassidy campaign focused on Guest’s conservatism. After the June 7, 2022, primary, Cassidy said he was “grateful to the people of Mississippi’s 3rd Congressional District for giving me the most votes…This is the first step in replacing our current congressman with someone who better represents [our] conservative Mississippi values.”[4] According to Cassidy, “ We need more people in Congress that will truly fight for the American people, and Michael Guest is quite simply not equipped for that challenge. He may be a decent man but he has proven to be ineffective at his job, and we need people who know how to fight in Congress.”[6][3]

Guest voted along with 34 other House Republicans to create a bipartisan commission to investigate the events of January 6, 2021. According to NPR, “Bipartisan legislation to establish an independent commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol has failed in the Senate, as Republicans…withheld the votes necessary to bring the bill up for debate. Just six GOP senators joined with the Democrats, leaving the measure short of the 60 votes needed to proceed. The proposed commission was modeled on the one established to investigate the 9/11 terror attacks…”[7] Cassidy mentioned this vote when he challenged Guest to a debate after the June 7, 2022, primary: “I am calling on Mr. Guest to give the voters the opportunity to see us debate and so he can be held accountable for voting for the Democrats’ January 6th Commission.”[2]

Guest’s campaign responded, saying that he did not vote for the Nancy Pelosi Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol that has been in the news: “He voted against the Select Committee because he knew it would lead to the witch hunt we are seeing now…[Cassidy] has spent a personal fortune to mislead the people of Mississippi about Congressman Guest’s conservative, Christian character.”[8][3]

Before the primaries, the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all rated Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District as a solid/safe Republican seat, meaning that the winner of this Republican primary runoff was likely to win the general election as well.

This page focuses on Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary runoff. For more in-depth information on the district's Republican primary, Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:


HOTP-GOP-Ad-1-Small.png


Candidates and election results

Republican primary runoff election

Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Incumbent Michael Guest advanced from the Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest
 
67.4
 
47,007
Image of Michael Cassidy
Michael Cassidy Candidate Connection
 
32.6
 
22,713

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 69,720
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Michael Guest

Image of Michael Guest

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office: 

Biography:  Guest received his bachelor’s degree from Mississippi State University in 1992. He received his J.D. from the University of Mississippi in 1995. He served as an assistance district attorney for Madison and Rankin counties in Mississippi from 1995 to 2007. He was elected district attorney of these counties in 2007. In 2018, Guest defeated Michael Evans (D) to replace outgoing incumbent Gregg Harper (R) in the House of Representatives.


Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Guest says that he is a successful policy maker who has been active in many legislative efforts. He highlights the fact that was the first Republican freshman member of Congress to author legislation that was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, and the second Republican freshman to author a bill that was signed into law.

Guest says that he has made a commitment to the people of Mississippi that he will fight for conservative values and support free market economic policies of lower taxes, fewer regulations, and promoting our constitutional freedoms and liberties—including the right to life of the unborn and our 2nd Amendment rights. 

After the June 7, 2022, Republican primary, Guest thanked his supporters and said, “It appears we are headed to a runoff on 6/28. I’ll be working to earn your vote because we need PROVEN, conservative leadership with a real record of fighting for our values—that’s the difference in the runoff election!”

Show sources

Sources: Mississippi Free Press, “Rep. Michael Guest Forced Into GOP Runoff After Voting For Jan. 6 Investigation,” accessed June 20, 2022; Michael Guest campaign website, “About Michael,” accessed Jan 30, 2019; Information submitted on Ballotpedia’s biographical information submission form on March 12, 2018.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 in 2022.

Michael Cassidy

Image of Michael Cassidy

Facebook

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "I'm a former Navy F/A-18 pilot and an America First conservative. I served twelve years in the Navy before leaving active duty last year. I still fly as an instructor pilot in the Navy Reserves, and am also a civilian test pilot at Naval Air Station Meridian. I decided to run for office because I am fed up with establishment politicians, such as our own RINO Congressman, Michael Guest, who are unwilling to fight for true America First values and who are unwilling to fight against the Left. Our district should have a more capable, more dedicated leader representing it in Washington, D.C. than Mr. Guest and I can be that person."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

We must elect America First Republicans to Washington D.C. and get rid of RINOs like Michael Guest who voted for the January 6th committee to politically attack President Trump

We must ensure the integrity of our elections in 2022, 2024, and beyond, and fully investigate the 2020 election and ensure full accountability. Mr. Guest has backed zero initiatives on election integrity, we need someone different who will work for this

We must finish the wall, send troops to the southern border, and deport everyone who is in this country illegally. Mr. Guest is pro-amnesty and wants to increase the number of foreign workers in our country (the top source of illegal immigration is visa overstays).

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 in 2022.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

Survey responses from candidates in this race

Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.

Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.

Expand all | Collapse all

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

We must elect America First Republicans to Washington D.C. and get rid of RINOs like Michael Guest who voted for the January 6th committee to politically attack President Trump

We must ensure the integrity of our elections in 2022, 2024, and beyond, and fully investigate the 2020 election and ensure full accountability. Mr. Guest has backed zero initiatives on election integrity, we need someone different who will work for this

We must finish the wall, send troops to the southern border, and deport everyone who is in this country illegally. Mr. Guest is pro-amnesty and wants to increase the number of foreign workers in our country (the top source of illegal immigration is visa overstays).
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

The military. The Department of Defense needs to be completely reformed to ensure that every dollar spent and every policy initiated has the overriding goal of increasing our military's strength. There is far too much bureaucracy, apathy, incompetence, cronyism, and misguided policy that must be fixed. Our current representative, Mr. Guest, has no military background and no understanding of how to make our military strong. He has also ignored the thousands of patriots being kicked out of the military for not taking the COVID vaccine, and has not committed to help those who have been kicked out when the GOP takes control of the House in 2023.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

Morality, courage, and love of our nation.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

A lifetime of dedication to the nation, demonstrated by my willingness to lay down my life for my country as a fighter pilot and instructor pilot my entire adult life. Our current representative, Mr. Guest, is a lawyer by background. Nearly half of the people in Congress are lawyers, and how has that been going for our country? We need more veterans in Congress; we can provide a much needed breath of fresh air in Washington.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

To faithfully serve the citizens of the district they represent and to prudently legislate on behalf of the country.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

The earliest event that I remember well was September 11th, 2001. It inspired me to join the military to protect my country against those who would do her harm.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

The Bible. It is the source document for our salvation.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

Our long-term fiscal health and the rise of China.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

I would seek to join the Armed Services Committee, specifically the Subcommittee on Tactical Air and Land Forces, where I could best use my experience as a Navy fighter pilot. I would also like to be on the Appropriations Committee, and its Subcommittee on Defense.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

I 100% support immediate term limits for RINOs like Michael Guest. Furthermore, it is healthy for the Republic to prevent politicians from keeping the same position in government for decades. Just as we have term limits for the President, we should have term limits for the House and the Senate.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Mike_Cassidy.jpg

Michael Cassidy (R)

I admire the steadfastness of former Congressman Ron Paul, who ignored the Establishment and fought for what he believed to be right regardless of whatever pressure leadership would put on him.


Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.

Republican Party Michael Guest

May 31, 2022

View more candidate videos here:

Republican Party Michael Cassidy

May 2, 2022

View more candidate videos here:


Endorsements

If you are aware of candidates in this race who published endorsement lists on their campaign websites, please email us.


Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.[9] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."[10] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

The links below show polls for this race aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, where available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[11]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[12][13][14]

Race ratings: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022
Race trackerRace ratings
November 8, 2022November 1, 2022October 25, 2022October 18, 2022
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Election spending

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[15] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[16]

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Michael Guest Republican Party $1,353,830 $1,610,880 $25,018 As of December 31, 2022
Michael Cassidy Republican Party $416,069 $416,069 $0 As of December 31, 2022

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[17][18][19]

If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.

By candidate By election

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

  • District map - A map of the district before and after redistricting.
  • Effect of redistricting - How districts in the state changed as a result of redistricting following the 2020 census.
  • Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2022 U.S. House elections in the state.
  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
  • State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Below was the map in use at the time of the election, enacted as part of the 2020 redistricting cycle, compared to the map in place before the election.

Mississippi District 3
until January 2, 2023

Click a district to compare boundaries.

Mississippi District 3
starting January 3, 2023

Click a district to compare boundaries.


Effect of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in Mississippi after the 2020 census

The table below details the results of the 2020 presidential election in each district at the time of the 2022 election and its political predecessor district.[20] This data was compiled by Daily Kos Elections.[21]

2020 presidential results by Congressional district, Mississippi
District 2022 district Political predecessor district
Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
Mississippi's 1st 33.4% 65.1% 33.8% 64.8%
Mississippi's 2nd 62.5% 36.4% 63.7% 35.2%
Mississippi's 3rd 37.2% 61.5% 38.6% 60.1%
Mississippi's 4th 30.3% 68.2% 30.3% 68.3%

Competitiveness

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Mississippi.

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Mississippi in 2022. Information below was calculated on April 8, 2022, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

As of the candidate filing deadline, 24 candidates—an average of six for each of Mississippi's four U.S. House districts—filed to run, including 16 Republicans, seven Democrats, and one Libertarian. The six candidates per district average was more than it was in both 2020—3.5 candidates per district—and 2018 (4.75).

All four incumbents filed for re-election, leaving no districts open. Mississippi had only one open-seat U.S. House race since 2012. Former Rep. Gregg Harper (R) did not run for re-election in 2018 in the state's 3rd Congressional District and Rep. Michael Guest (R) won the Republican nomination from a six-candidate field. Guest defeated Michael Evans (D) in the general election that year, 62% to 37%.

This was the first candidate filing deadline to take place under new district lines adopted following Mississippi's decennial redistricting process. Mississippi was apportioned four seats in the House of Representatives, the same number it received after the 2010 census. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) signed the state's congressional redistricting plan on January 24, 2022. After the state Senate approved the plan, Lee Sanderlin wrote in the Mississippi Clarion-Ledger, “The bill preserves the current balance of congressional power in Mississippi, keeping three seats for Republicans and one for lone Democrat Bennie Thompson."[22]

All four U.S. House incumbents drew primary challengers for the first time since 2012. Overall, the candidate filing deadline set seven contested primaries—four Republican and three Democratic. The only U.S. House district without a Democratic or Republican primary was Mississippi's 3rd District, where Shuwaski Young (D) was left unopposed for his party's nomination.

Presidential elections

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2022 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+15. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Mississippi's 3rd the 89th most Republican district nationally.[23]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Mississippi's 3rd based on 2022 district lines
Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
37.2% 61.5%

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Mississippi, 2020

Mississippi presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 16 Democratic wins
  • 13 Republican wins
  • 2 other wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960[24] 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party D D D D D D D D D D D D SR[25] D D D R AI[26] R D R R R R R R R R R R R


Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Mississippi and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019. {{{Demo widget}}}

State party control

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Mississippi's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Mississippi, November 2022
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 0 1 1
Republican 2 3 5
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 4 6

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Mississippi's top four state executive offices as of November 2022.

State executive officials in Mississippi, November 2022
Office Officeholder
Governor Republican Party Tate Reeves
Lieutenant Governor Republican Party Delbert Hosemann
Secretary of State Republican Party Michael D. Watson Jr.
Attorney General Republican Party Lynn Fitch

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Mississippi State Legislature as of November 2022.

Mississippi State Senate

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 16
     Republican Party 36
     Vacancies 0
Total 52

Mississippi House of Representatives

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 42
     Republican Party 75
     Independent 3
     Vacancies 2
Total 122

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Mississippi was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Mississippi Party Control: 1992-2022
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eleven years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Governor R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Mississippi in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Mississippi, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2022
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Mississippi U.S. House Ballot-qualified party N/A $500.00 3/1/2022 Source
Mississippi U.S. House Unaffiliated 200 $500.00 3/1/2022 Source

District election history

2020

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

General election

General election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Incumbent Michael Guest defeated Dorothy Benford in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest (R)
 
64.7
 
221,064
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Dorothy Benford (D)
 
35.3
 
120,782

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 341,846
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Dorothy Benford defeated Katelyn Lee in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on March 10, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Dorothy Benford
 
64.0
 
38,967
Image of Katelyn Lee
Katelyn Lee Candidate Connection
 
36.0
 
21,951

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 60,918
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Incumbent Michael Guest defeated James Tulp in the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on March 10, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest
 
89.8
 
67,269
Image of James Tulp
James Tulp Candidate Connection
 
10.2
 
7,618

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 74,887
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2018

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Guest defeated Michael Evans and Matthew Holland in the general election for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest (R)
 
62.3
 
160,284
Image of Michael Evans
Michael Evans (D)
 
36.7
 
94,461
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Matthew Holland (Reform Party)
 
1.0
 
2,526

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 257,271
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary runoff election

Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Guest defeated Whit Hughes in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 26, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest
 
65.1
 
31,572
Image of Whit Hughes
Whit Hughes
 
34.9
 
16,950

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 48,522
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Michael Evans defeated Michael Aycox in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael Evans
Michael Evans
 
69.3
 
17,016
Image of Michael Aycox
Michael Aycox
 
30.7
 
7,525

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 24,541
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest
 
44.8
 
29,157
✔
Image of Whit Hughes
Whit Hughes
 
22.2
 
14,464
Image of Perry Parker
Perry Parker
 
16.2
 
10,562
Image of Sally Doty
Sally Doty
 
10.2
 
6,608
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Morgan Dunn
 
5.9
 
3,820
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Katherine Tate
 
0.6
 
416

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 65,027
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2016

See also: Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Gregg Harper (R) defeated Dennis Quinn (D), Roger Gerrard (Veterans Party of America), and Lajena Sheets (Reform) in the general election. Harper defeated Jimmy Giles in the Republican primary on March 8, 2016. Quinn defeated Nathan Stewart in the Democratic primary on March 8, 2016. Both Gerrard and Sheets were unopposed.[27][28]

U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGregg Harper Incumbent 66.2% 209,490
     Democratic Dennis Quinn 30.4% 96,101
     Veterans Party of America Roger Gerrard 2.7% 8,696
     Reform Lajena Sheets 0.7% 2,158
Total Votes 316,445
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State


U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDennis Quinn 65.5% 29,149
Nathan Stewart 34.5% 15,384
Total Votes 44,533
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State
U.S. House, Mississippi District 3 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngGregg Harper Incumbent 89.1% 87,997
Jimmy Giles 10.9% 10,760
Total Votes 98,757
Source: Mississippi Republican Party


2022 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This election was a battleground race. Other 2022 battleground elections included:

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 16 WAPT News, “US Rep. Michael Guest headed to GOP runoff,” June 20, 2022
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Washington Post, “GOP Miss. congressman faces run-off over support for Jan. 6 commission,” June 21, 2022
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 New York Times, “Michael Guest, a Republican who voted to create January 6 commission, will go to a runoff in Mississippi,” June 21, 2022
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Mississippi Free Press, “Rep. Michael Guest Forced Into GOP Runoff After Voting For Jan. 6 Investigation,” June 20, 2022
  5. ↑ Michael Guest candidate website, “About,” June 20, 2022
  6. ↑ Michael Cassidy candidate website, “Meet Michael,” June 20, 2022
  7. ↑ NPR, “Senate Republicans Block A Plan For An Independent Commission On Jan. 6 Capitol Riot,” September 8, 2022
  8. ↑ Mississippi Free Press, “Rep. Guest Defends Vote to Investigate Jan. 6 Amid GOP Opponent’s Criticism,” June 22, 2022
  9. ↑ For more information on the difference between margins of error and credibility intervals, see explanations from the American Association for Public Opinion Research and Ipsos.
  10. ↑ Pew Research Center, "5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls," September 8, 2016
  11. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  15. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  16. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  17. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
  18. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
  19. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
  20. ↑ Political predecessor districts are determined primarily based on incumbents and where each chose to seek re-election.
  21. ↑ Daily Kos Elections, "Daily Kos Elections 2020 presidential results by congressional district (old CDs vs. new CDs)," accessed May 12, 2022
  22. ↑ Mississippi Clarion-Ledger, "Mississippi redistricting: Senate follows House, approves expanded 2nd District," Jan. 12, 2022
  23. ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed February 6, 2023
  24. ↑ Although he was not on the ballot, Harry F. Byrd (D) won Mississippi's eight unpledged electoral votes in the 1960 election against Richard Nixon (R) and Democratic Party nominee John F. Kennedy.
  25. ↑ States' Rights Democratic Party
  26. ↑ American Independent Party
  27. ↑ Mississippi Secretary of State, "2016 Candidate Qualifying List," accessed January 12, 2016
  28. ↑ The Clarion-Ledger, "Primary Results: Statewide, county by county," March 8, 2016
  29. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  30. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  31. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  32. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  33. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
  34. ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013


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Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Roger Wicker (R)
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