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Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary)

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Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
Republican primary runoff
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 1, 2022
Primary: June 7, 2022
Primary runoff: June 28, 2022
General: November 8, 2022
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Mississippi
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2022): R+15
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2022
See also
Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th
Mississippi elections, 2022
U.S. Congress elections, 2022
U.S. Senate elections, 2022
U.S. House elections, 2022

A Republican Party primary took place on June 7, 2022, in Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District to determine which Republican candidate would run in the district's general election on November 8, 2022.

Incumbent Michael Guest and Michael Cassidy advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 1, 2022
June 7, 2022
November 8, 2022


A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Mississippi state law stipulates that an individual can only participate in a party's primary if he or she "intends to support the nominations made in the primary" in which he or she participates. However, this is generally considered an unenforceable requirement. Consequently, Mississippi's primary is effectively open.[1][2]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

This page focuses on Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:


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Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3

Incumbent Michael Guest and Michael Cassidy advanced to a runoff. They defeated Thomas Griffin in the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on June 7, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Michael Guest
Michael Guest
 
47.5
 
23,675
✔
Image of Michael Cassidy
Michael Cassidy Candidate Connection
 
46.9
 
23,407
Image of Thomas Griffin
Thomas Griffin Candidate Connection
 
5.6
 
2,785

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 49,867
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

News and conflicts in this primary

This race was featured in The Heart of the Primaries, a newsletter capturing stories related to conflicts within each major party. Click here to read more about conflict in this and other 2022 Republican U.S. House primaries. Click here to subscribe to the newsletter.

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[3] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[4] Click here to view the reporting schedule for candidates for U.S. Congress in 2022.

U.S. Congress campaign reporting schedule, 2022
Report Close of books Filing deadline
Year-end 2021 12/31/2021 1/31/2022
April quarterly 3/31/2022 4/15/2022
July quarterly 6/30/2022 7/15/2022
October quarterly 9/30/2022 10/15/2022
Pre-general 10/19/2022 10/27/2022
Post-general 11/28/2022 12/08/2022
Year-end 2022 12/31/2022 1/31/2023


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Michael Guest Republican Party $1,353,830 $1,610,880 $25,018 As of December 31, 2022
Michael Cassidy Republican Party $416,069 $416,069 $0 As of December 31, 2022
Thomas Griffin Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2022. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Mississippi in the 2022 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Mississippi, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2022
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Mississippi U.S. House Ballot-qualified party N/A $500.00 3/1/2022 Source
Mississippi U.S. House Unaffiliated 200 $500.00 3/1/2022 Source

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

  • District map - A map of the district before and after redistricting.
  • Effect of redistricting - How districts in the state changed as a result of redistricting following the 2020 census.
  • Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2022 U.S. House elections in the state.
  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
  • Demographics - Information about the state's demographics and how they compare to the country as a whole.
  • State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Below was the map in use at the time of the election, enacted as part of the 2020 redistricting cycle, compared to the map in place before the election.

Mississippi District 3
until January 2, 2023

Click a district to compare boundaries.

Mississippi District 3
starting January 3, 2023

Click a district to compare boundaries.


Effect of redistricting

See also: Redistricting in Mississippi after the 2020 census

The table below details the results of the 2020 presidential election in each district at the time of the 2022 election and its political predecessor district.[5] This data was compiled by Daily Kos Elections.[6]

2020 presidential results by Congressional district, Mississippi
District 2022 district Political predecessor district
Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
Mississippi's 1st 33.4% 65.1% 33.8% 64.8%
Mississippi's 2nd 62.5% 36.4% 63.7% 35.2%
Mississippi's 3rd 37.2% 61.5% 38.6% 60.1%
Mississippi's 4th 30.3% 68.2% 30.3% 68.3%

Competitiveness

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Mississippi.

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Mississippi in 2022. Information below was calculated on April 8, 2022, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

As of the candidate filing deadline, 24 candidates—an average of six for each of Mississippi's four U.S. House districts—filed to run, including 16 Republicans, seven Democrats, and one Libertarian. The six candidates per district average was more than it was in both 2020—3.5 candidates per district—and 2018 (4.75).

All four incumbents filed for re-election, leaving no districts open. Mississippi had only one open-seat U.S. House race since 2012. Former Rep. Gregg Harper (R) did not run for re-election in 2018 in the state's 3rd Congressional District and Rep. Michael Guest (R) won the Republican nomination from a six-candidate field. Guest defeated Michael Evans (D) in the general election that year, 62% to 37%.

This was the first candidate filing deadline to take place under new district lines adopted following Mississippi's decennial redistricting process. Mississippi was apportioned four seats in the House of Representatives, the same number it received after the 2010 census. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) signed the state's congressional redistricting plan on January 24, 2022. After the state Senate approved the plan, Lee Sanderlin wrote in the Mississippi Clarion-Ledger, “The bill preserves the current balance of congressional power in Mississippi, keeping three seats for Republicans and one for lone Democrat Bennie Thompson."[7]

All four U.S. House incumbents drew primary challengers for the first time since 2012. Overall, the candidate filing deadline set seven contested primaries—four Republican and three Democratic. The only U.S. House district without a Democratic or Republican primary was Mississippi's 3rd District, where Shuwaski Young (D) was left unopposed for his party's nomination.

Presidential elections

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2022 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+15. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Mississippi's 3rd the 89th most Republican district nationally.[8]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Mississippi's 3rd based on 2022 district lines
Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
37.2% 61.5%

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Mississippi, 2020

Mississippi presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 16 Democratic wins
  • 13 Republican wins
  • 2 other wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960[9] 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party D D D D D D D D D D D D SR[10] D D D R AI[11] R D R R R R R R R R R R R


Demographics

The table below details demographic data in Mississippi and compares it to the broader United States as of 2019.

Demographic Data for Mississippi
Mississippi United States
Population 2,961,279 331,449,281
Land area (sq mi) 46,924 3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White 58% 70.4%
Black/African American 37.7% 12.6%
Asian 1% 5.6%
Native American 0.5% 0.8%
Pacific Islander 0% 0.2%
Other (single race) 1.1% 5.1%
Multiple 1.7% 5.2%
Hispanic/Latino 3.2% 18.2%
Education
High school graduation rate 85.3% 88.5%
College graduation rate 22.8% 32.9%
Income
Median household income $46,511 $64,994
Persons below poverty level 19.6% 12.8%
Source: population provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "Decennial Census" (2020). Other figures provided by U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2015-2020).
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


State party control

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Mississippi's congressional delegation as of November 2022.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Mississippi, November 2022
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 0 1 1
Republican 2 3 5
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 4 6

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Mississippi's top four state executive offices as of November 2022.

State executive officials in Mississippi, November 2022
Office Officeholder
Governor Republican Party Tate Reeves
Lieutenant Governor Republican Party Delbert Hosemann
Secretary of State Republican Party Michael D. Watson Jr.
Attorney General Republican Party Lynn Fitch

State legislature

The tables below highlight the partisan composition of the Mississippi State Legislature as of November 2022.

Mississippi State Senate

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 16
     Republican Party 36
     Vacancies 0
Total 52

Mississippi House of Representatives

Party As of November 2022
     Democratic Party 42
     Republican Party 75
     Independent 3
     Vacancies 2
Total 122

Trifecta control

As of November 2022, Mississippi was a Republican trifecta, with majorities in both chambers of the state legislature and control of the governorship. The table below displays the historical trifecta status of the state.

Mississippi Party Control: 1992-2022
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eleven years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Governor R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ NCSL,"State Primary Election Types," accessed February 6, 2024
  2. ↑ Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  3. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  4. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  5. ↑ Political predecessor districts are determined primarily based on incumbents and where each chose to seek re-election.
  6. ↑ Daily Kos Elections, "Daily Kos Elections 2020 presidential results by congressional district (old CDs vs. new CDs)," accessed May 12, 2022
  7. ↑ Mississippi Clarion-Ledger, "Mississippi redistricting: Senate follows House, approves expanded 2nd District," Jan. 12, 2022
  8. ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed February 6, 2023
  9. ↑ Although he was not on the ballot, Harry F. Byrd (D) won Mississippi's eight unpledged electoral votes in the 1960 election against Richard Nixon (R) and Democratic Party nominee John F. Kennedy.
  10. ↑ States' Rights Democratic Party
  11. ↑ American Independent Party


Mississippi's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)
Roger Wicker (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Republican Party (5)
Democratic Party (1)


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