Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (March 12 Republican primary)
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| Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District |
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: January 12, 2024 |
| Primary: March 12, 2024 Primary runoff: April 2, 2024 General: November 5, 2024 General runoff: November 26, 2024 |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Mississippi |
| Race ratings |
DDHQ and The Hill: Safe Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th Mississippi elections, 2024 U.S. Congress elections, 2024 U.S. Senate elections, 2024 U.S. House elections, 2024 |
A Republican Party primary took place on March 12, 2024, in Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District to determine which Republican candidate would run in the district's general election on November 5, 2024.
Incumbent Michael Guest advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3.
All 435 seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans had a 220 to 212 majority with three vacancies.[1] As of June 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.
In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 70.7%-29.3%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 61.5%-37.2%.[2]
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Mississippi state law stipulates that an individual can only participate in a party's primary if he or she "intends to support the nominations made in the primary" in which he or she participates. However, this is generally considered an unenforceable requirement. Consequently, Mississippi's primary is effectively open.[3][4]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
This page focuses on Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:
- Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (March 12 Democratic primary)
- Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024
Candidates and election results
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3
Incumbent Michael Guest advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Mississippi District 3 on March 12, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Michael Guest | 100.0 | 66,559 |
| Total votes: 66,559 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Candidate profiles
There were no candidate profiles created for this race. Candidate profiles would have appeared here as candidates completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Mississippi
Campaign finance
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Guest | Republican Party | $925,968 | $439,641 | $511,345 | As of December 31, 2024 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Mississippi.
| Mississippi U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
| 2024 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 37.5% | 1 | 25.0% | ||||
| 2022 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 87.5% | 4 | 100.0% | ||||
| 2020 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 62.5% | 3 | 75.0% | ||||
| 2018 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 37.5% | 1 | 33.3% | ||||
| 2016 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 37.5% | 2 | 50.0% | ||||
| 2014 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 75.0% | 3 | 75.0% | ||||
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Mississippi in 2024. Information below was calculated on March 7, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Twelve candidates filed to run for Mississippi’s four U.S. House districts, including four Democrats and eight Republicans. That's three candidates per district, less than in the previous three election cycles. There were 5.75 candidates per district in 2022, 3.75 candidates per district in 2020, and 3.5 candidates per district in 2018.
No seats were open in 2024, meaning all incumbents ran for re-election. There was one House seat open in 2018, the only election cycle this decade in which a House seat was open.
Three primaries—one Democratic and two Republican—were contested, the fewest since 2018. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 4.8 primaries were contested.
One incumbent—Mike Ezell (R)—faced a primary challenger. That’s fewer than in 2022 when four incumbents faced challengers.
The 3rd district was guaranteed to Republicans because no Democrats appeared on the ballot. Republicans filed to run in every congressional district, meaning none were guaranteed to Democrats.Partisan Voter Index
Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+15. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 15 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Mississippi's 3rd the 85th most Republican district nationally.[5]
2020 presidential election results
The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| 2020 presidential results in Mississippi's 3rd based on 2024 district lines | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden 
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Donald Trump 
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| 37.2% | 61.5% | |||
Inside Elections Baselines
- See also: Inside Elections
Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.[6] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.
| Inside Elections Baseline for 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Baseline
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Republican Baseline
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Difference | ||
| 36.5 | 62.9 | D+26.4 | ||
Presidential voting history
Mississippi presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 16 Democratic wins
- 13 Republican wins
- 2 other wins
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Mississippi's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Mississippi | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Republican | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 4 | 6 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Mississippi's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.
| State executive officials in Mississippi, April 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | Tate Reeves
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| Lieutenant Governor | Delbert Hosemann
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| Secretary of State | Michael D. Watson Jr.
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| Attorney General | Lynn Fitch
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State legislature
Mississippi State Senate
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 16 | |
| Republican Party | 36 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 52 | |
Mississippi House of Representatives
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 41 | |
| Republican Party | 79 | |
| Independent | 2 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 0 | |
| Total | 122 | |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.
Mississippi Party Control: 1992-2024
Four years of Democratic trifectas • Thirteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R[10] | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Mississippi in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Mississippi, click here.
| Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
| Mississippi | U.S. House | Democratic | N/A | $500.00 | 1/12/2024 | Source |
| Mississippi | U.S. House | Republican | N/A | $2,500.00 | 1/12/2024 | Source |
| Mississippi | U.S. House | Unaffiliated | 200 | $500.00 | 1/12/2024 | Source |
See also
- Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (March 12 Democratic primary)
- Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024
- United States House elections in Mississippi, 2024 (March 12 Democratic primaries)
- United States House elections in Mississippi, 2024 (March 12 Republican primaries)
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2024
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2024
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2024
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2024
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ NCSL,"State Primary Election Types," accessed February 6, 2024
- ↑ Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023
- ↑ Although he was not on the ballot, Harry F. Byrd (D) won Mississippi's eight unpledged electoral votes in the 1960 election against Richard Nixon (R) and Democratic Party nominee John F. Kennedy.
- ↑ States' Rights Democratic Party
- ↑ American Independent Party
- ↑ Republicans gained a majority in 2007 when two Democratic state senators switched their party affiliation. Democrats regained the majority as a result of the 2007 elections.
