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Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2020 (August 4 Republican primary)
- Primary date: Aug. 4
- Primary type: Open
- Registration deadline(s): July 8
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Early voting starts: N/A
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Aug. 4 (received)
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID
- Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
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| Missouri's 1st Congressional District |
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 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 31, 2020 |
| Primary: August 4, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: William Lacy Clay (Democratic) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Missouri |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th Missouri elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
A Republican Party primary took place on August 4, 2020, in Missouri's 1st Congressional District to determine which Republican candidate would run in the district's general election on November 3, 2020.
Anthony Rogers advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 1.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election, the incumbent was William Lacy Clay (Democrat), who was first elected in 2000.
A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Missouri utilizes an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[1][2][3]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
This page focuses on Missouri's 1st Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:
- Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2020 (August 4 Democratic primary)
- Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Political party events in Missouri were modified as follows:
- Political party events: The Democratic Party of Missouri made a series of changes to its state convention delegate selection process, including the cancelation of mass meetings and the postponement of congressional district conventions to May 30. The Republican Party of Missouri canceled its county caucuses.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 1
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Anthony Rogers | 61.5 | 6,979 |
 | Winnie Heartstrong  | 38.5 | 4,367 | |
| Total votes: 11,346 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[4] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "Dr. Winnie Heartstrong has a Ph.D. in political communication from the University of Maryland in College where she taught oral communication. She ran for Maryland House of Delegates in 2018 and advocated for child victims of clergy sex abuse. When the clergy abuse scandal broke, Dr. Winnie took advocated for victims by petitioning Pope Francis to remove Cardinal Wuerl who covered up abuse. Dr. Winnie is running for Congress to represent St. Louis and the people of Missouri's 1st Congressional district. "
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Missouri District 1 in 2020.
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+29, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 29 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Missouri's 1st Congressional District the 30th most Democratic nationally.[5]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[6]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winnie Heartstrong | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Anthony Rogers | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]
| Race ratings: Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
See also
- Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2020 (August 4 Democratic primary)
- Missouri's 1st Congressional District election, 2020
- United States House elections in Missouri, 2020 (August 4 Democratic primaries)
- United States House elections in Missouri, 2020 (August 4 Republican primaries)
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2020
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ NCSL,"State Primary Election Types," accessed April 4, 2023
- ↑ Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013, through January 3, 2014, researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
- ↑ John R. Ashcroft Missouri Secretary of State,"Frequently Asked Questions," accessed April 4, 2023
- ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
