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Missouri's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (August 6 Republican primary)

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2026
2022
Missouri's 3rd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 26, 2024
Primary: August 6, 2024
General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Missouri
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
Missouri's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th
Missouri elections, 2024
U.S. Congress elections, 2024
U.S. Senate elections, 2024
U.S. House elections, 2024

Bob Onder (R) won the Republican primary for Missouri's 3rd Congressional District on August 6, 2024. Click here for more detailed results.

Seven candidates ran in the election. Two led in media attention, endorsements, and fundraising: Onder and Kurt Schaefer (R).

Incumbent Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) did not run for re-election. Luetkemeyer was first elected to the U.S. House in 2008 and to Missouri's 3rd Congressional District in 2012.

Former President Donald Trump (R) and U.S. Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) endorsed Onder.[1] Leutkemeyer endorsed Schaefer.[2] According to St. Louis Public Radio, the endorsements represented "a test on whether a national leader’s backing is more valuable than a longtime local one."[3]

As of July 14, 2024, four major election forecasters rated the general election Solid/Safe Republican. To read more on ratings for the general election, click here.

Onder was a physician and attorney at the time of the election.[4] He previously served in the Missouri Senate from 2015 to 2023 and in the Missouri House of Representatives from 2007 to 2008. Onder ran against Luetkemeyer in 2008, when Leutkemeyer defeated him in the Republican primary for Missouri's 9th Congressional District.[5] Onder said he disapproved of the Biden administration’s immigration policies and that he sponsored "the strongest state law in the country to fight illegal immigration."[6] Onder said he was pro-life and that he authored legislation which stated abortions could not be performed in Missouri "if the fetal heartbeat of the unborn child has been detected."[6][7] Onder said he would join the House Freedom Caucus if elected.[8]

Schaefer was an attorney at the time of the election who previously worked as the general counsel for the Missouri Department of Natural Resources.[9][10] He previously served in the Missouri Senate from 2009 to 2017. Schaefer said he would work to eliminate illegal immigration and said the Biden administration’s immigration policies "created a gateway for drugs and criminal activities to inundate our Southern Border."[11] Schaefer said his time as Missouri Senate Appropriations Committee chair gave him the experience to decrease federal spending, saying he "reformed Missouri’s welfare system [and] forced new accountability measures on Missouri’s bloated and out-of-control Medicaid program."[12] Schaefer said he supports Trump’s policies and that "No one will be a bigger champion for President Trump’s conservative agenda."[13]

Also running in the primary were Chadwick Bicknell (R), Kyle Bone (R), Bruce Bowman (R), Arnie Dienoff (R), and Justin Hicks (R).

Kyle Bone (R) completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. To read those survey responses, click here.

This page focuses on Missouri's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Candidates and election results

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on August 6, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Bob Onder
Bob Onder
 
47.4
 
48,833
Image of Kurt Schaefer
Kurt Schaefer
 
37.2
 
38,375
Image of Bruce Bowman
Bruce Bowman
 
4.4
 
4,508
Image of Justin Hicks
Justin Hicks (Unofficially withdrew)
 
4.3
 
4,425
Image of Kyle Bone
Kyle Bone Candidate Connection
 
3.4
 
3,548
Image of Chadwick Bicknell
Chadwick Bicknell
 
1.8
 
1,842
Arnie Dienoff
 
1.5
 
1,560

Total votes: 103,091
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Voting information

See also: Voting in Missouri

Election information in Missouri: Aug. 6, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

  • In-person: July 10, 2024
  • By mail: Postmarked by July 10, 2024
  • Online: July 10, 2024

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

No

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

  • In-person: Aug. 5, 2024
  • By mail: Received by July 24, 2024
  • Online: N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

  • In-person: Aug. 6, 2024
  • By mail: Received by Aug. 6, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

N/A

What were the early voting start and end dates?

July 23, 2024 to Aug. 5, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

6:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. (CST)


Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Image of Kyle Bone

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography "I am married with three kids (17, 14 and 9). I am a Navy Veteran, and have worked for Boeing for the last 25 years. For the last 15 years I have worked directly with the US Navy Fighter community. I have a deep understanding of the threats we face as a nation, and how we stack up against those threat nations. I am proud of my service to this country both in the US Navy and as a contractor. However, the most important thing in my life is my relationship with Jesus Christ, my Lord and Savior. Most of you wouldn’t like the man I used to be. The man I was before I started serving Christ was not a good man, and certainly not a Godly man. Since I let go of my own desires and started following Christ, I have been transformed as a man. I was saved 30 or so years ago, but it’s really only in the last 10 years or so that I have truly become a servant of Christ. He has transformed me from someone that worried about my own needs to someone that thinks of the needs of my family, my church, and my community first. I would like to serve you in this way."


Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.


I am a political outsider. I don't owe anybody. My campaign is not funded by corporations, so I am not beholden to them. We need somebody that is thinking of the priorities of the district rather than the priorities of the big money that got them the three offices before this one. Your priorities go first. Unlike some of my opponents, I am not a ladder climbing Republican that is always trying to get to the next office. You know these guys. They only respond to something when they think it is politically advantageous. I am here to serve you, not myself.


We have to get inflation under control. Our citizens are getting hammered by prices everywhere, and our government is at fault. In the last 4 years: -Gas is up 30% -Groceries are up 30-40% -Rent is out of control -Interest rates on a home are at 7% Most of this is due to the government borrowing money and handing it out in huge budgets. The Federal Budget was 4 trillion in 2019 . In 2024, the Federal Budget is 6.75 Trillion. That is a recipe for disaster. Fossil fuel regs aren't helping. The lifeblood of a farm is diesel. When diesel gets over $4.00 a gallon, farmers cant afford to run farms. In short, an extra $150 a week for groceries might seem like a rounding error to some candidates, but not to us!


Secure the southern border. Its not just people pouring into our cities and committing crimes against our citizens, 80,000 Americans a year are dying from Fentanyl overdoses. The fix is simple: -Reenact Trump era border policies -Build a border barrier (Texas has shown it works and they are just using razor wire. -Revamp the asylum application process.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Missouri District 3 in 2024.

Image of Bob Onder

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

Biography:  Onder received a bachelor’s degree in economics and biology from Washington University in St. Louis, an M.D. from Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, and a J.D. from Saint Louis University School of Law. At the time of the 2024 election, he worked as a physician and owned a small business.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Onder said his time in the legislature and bills he authored showed his support for conservative policies. Referring to his time as a legislator, he said, “I have stood up to Democrats and my own party establishment to get things done.”


Onder said he opposed illegal immigration and that he sponsored “the strongest state law in the country to fight illegal immigration" during his time as a legislator.


Onder said he was pro-life and that he authored legislation that limited access to abortions in Missouri.


Onder said he supported defending citizens’ Second Amendment rights. He said he supported the ability of gun owners to use firearms when defending themselves during home intrusions and to carry firearms on public transit.


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Missouri District 3 in 2024.

Image of Kurt Schaefer

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: 

Biography:  Schaefer received a bachelor’s degree in geography from the University of Missouri in 1990 and a J.D./M.A. in environmental law from Vermont Law School in 1995. He worked as the general counsel and deputy director of the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, an assistant attorney general of Missouri, and a special assistant U.S. Attorney. At the time of the 2024 election, he worked as an attorney.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


Schaefer said the Biden administration’s immigration policies “created a gateway for drugs and criminal activities to inundate our Southern Border.” He said he supported hiring more border security.


Schaefer said government spending was too high and that his time as the chair of the Missouri Senate Appropriations Committee gave him the experience to decrease spending. He said that, during his time on the committee, he “reformed Missouri’s welfare system [and] forced new accountability measures on Missouri’s bloated and out-of-control Medicaid program.”


Schaefer said he was pro-life and that he supported defunding Planned Parenthood during his time in the legislature.


Schaefer said he supported Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and that “No one will be a bigger champion for President Trump’s conservative agenda.”


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Missouri District 3 in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. The section below shows responses from candidates in this race who completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

Survey responses from candidates in this race

Click on a candidate's name to visit their Ballotpedia page.

Note: Ballotpedia reserves the right to edit Candidate Connection survey responses. Any edits made by Ballotpedia will be clearly marked with [brackets] for the public. If the candidate disagrees with an edit, he or she may request the full removal of the survey response from Ballotpedia.org. Ballotpedia does not edit or correct typographical errors unless the candidate's campaign requests it.

Expand all | Collapse all

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

I am a political outsider. I don't owe anybody. My campaign is not funded by corporations, so I am not beholden to them. We need somebody that is thinking of the priorities of the district rather than the priorities of the big money that got them the three offices before this one.

Your priorities go first.

Unlike some of my opponents, I am not a ladder climbing Republican that is always trying to get to the next office. You know these guys. They only respond to something when they think it is politically advantageous.

I am here to serve you, not myself.

We have to get inflation under control.

Our citizens are getting hammered by prices everywhere, and our government is at fault.

In the last 4 years: -Gas is up 30% -Groceries are up 30-40% -Rent is out of control -Interest rates on a home are at 7%

Most of this is due to the government borrowing money and handing it out in huge budgets. The Federal Budget was 4 trillion in 2019 . In 2024, the Federal Budget is 6.75 Trillion. That is a recipe for disaster.

Fossil fuel regs aren't helping. The lifeblood of a farm is diesel. When diesel gets over $4.00 a gallon, farmers cant afford to run farms.

In short, an extra $150 a week for groceries might seem like a rounding error to some candidates, but not to us!

Secure the southern border.

Its not just people pouring into our cities and committing crimes against our citizens, 80,000 Americans a year are dying from Fentanyl overdoses.

The fix is simple:

-Reenact Trump era border policies -Build a border barrier (Texas has shown it works and they are just using razor wire.

-Revamp the asylum application process.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

National Security - I am an expert on how to protect this country. I know the equipment and manpower we need as well as what we do not need to do.

Border Security - Simple, secure the border.

Reigning in the Federal government - We have to get the regulatory state under control. The EPA, among other agencies, think they can make up rules that have no basis in law. We have to get the bureaucrats under our control rather than them thinking they control us.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

I look up to the pastor at my church, First Baptist Church of De Soto, MO. this seems odd because he is younger than me, but he is more mature in his faith than I am. I really look up to him for his ability to communicate the message of salvation through Jesus Christ. Boiling the Gospel message down to its core is a talent that Brad has and I admire that in him. I also admire my Discipleship Group leader. There is strength and resolve in this man that one doesn't see every day.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Holy Bible - God

The Road to Serfdom - Frederick Hayek

The Law - Frederic Bastiat

Hillbilly Ellegy - J. D. Vance
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Serve you district rather than yourself. this is above all else. I adhere to basic conservative principles of limited government and a strong defense. However, these mean nothing if you are not using those principles to make the lives of the citizens better. I also put the needs of the citizen above the non citizen. Full stop.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

The ability to focus on the priorities of my constituents and follow through. The ability to not get distracted by the noise matters. An officeholder also has to have resolve to stick to principles even though they will be pressured to do otherwise.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Defend the nation.

Defend the civil liberties of the citizens.

Fight against the leftist agenda that is creeping into every aspect of our lives.

Put the needs of my contituents above my own needs.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

As long as my children are followers of Christ, then I have done my job.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Ronald Reagan was elected. I was 7 and lived on an Army base in Germany at the time.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Plank Road Inn, Farmington, MO. I had this job for two years before I graduated high school and joined the Navy.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Any Jack Reacher book. the bad guys always get theirs in the end of those books.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

I struggle with sin the same as any other, though it has gotten better in recent years.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

A direct connection to the citizens of this country. This is the people's house. they are held accountable every two years. Also, since all funding bills are supposed to originate in the House of Representatives, holding the purse strings enables the house to perform oversight on the executive branch of government.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Its not necessary. A savvy person can navigate the treacherous waters of DC without having been a politician for the last 20 years. Having experience in the real world is more important. Smarmy ladder climbers are there because they are using their experience as a jumping off point for the next office.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

China's belligerence is a problem. The greatest challenge, however, is our country's move toward rewarding mediocrity and laziness rather than rewarding excellence. this goes along with the divisive policies we are pursuing that focuses so much on identity politics rather than celebrating the best among us from every group of people.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Term limits are taken care of via elections. Although I think 5 terms for a congressman should be enough.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Jason Smith in Missouri's 8th District. He serves his constituents well.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

I have heard so many stories of people struggling with the choices they now have to make due to inflation. the choice of filling up your gas tank or getting groceries for their families. the choice of getting nutritious food for their kids or getting enough food that is not necessarily good for them.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

No............ Just Kidding. I'm not really a joke kind of guy. I like funny stories better.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

sometimes you have to compromise as long as you are not compromising your principles. compromise isn't a principle in and of itself, just a tool to further the agenda of the citizens of your district.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

This is a responsibility not to be taken lightly. Every dime should be something that is necessary, not just pork to get someone reelected.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Oversight is important. We need to ensure that the executive is coloring in the lines and spending appropriated funds as directed.

However, over the last 10 years or so, these have become platforms for blowhard congressmen to aggrandize themselves. those who come to testify should be treated with respect, and they should also be open and honest in their testimony.

it might be nice to have adults act like it.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Not many. I haven't been running around kissing butt for endorsements.
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

House Armed Services Intelligence
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kyle_Bone_20240619_045322.jpg

Kyle Bone (R)

Every dime should be accounted for and be published to the website for each department (in an easy to read format). it really is that simple. If a program is not living up to its responsibilities, there should be financial repercussions (For example, if a gen 5 fighter happens to be over budget and behind schedule constantly)



Campaign advertisements

This section includes a selection of up to three campaign advertisements per candidate released in this race, as well as links to candidates' YouTube, Vimeo, and/or Facebook video pages. If you are aware of other links that should be included, please email us.


Republican Party Bob Onder

View more ads here:


Republican Party Kurt Schaefer

Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Kurt Schaefer while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.


Endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

We provide results for polls that are included in polling aggregation from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, when available. No polls were available for this election. To notify us of polls published in this election, please email us.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[14]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[15][16][17]

Race ratings: Missouri's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024
Race trackerRace ratings
November 5, 2024October 29, 2024October 22, 2024October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy WalterSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Decision Desk HQ and The HillSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Election spending

Campaign finance

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Chadwick Bicknell Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Kyle Bone Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Bruce Bowman Republican Party $54,451 $54,461 $0 As of October 4, 2024
Arnie Dienoff Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Justin Hicks Republican Party $161,739 $158,619 $32,320 As of December 31, 2024
Bob Onder Republican Party $1,778,242 $1,627,798 $150,444 As of December 31, 2024
Kurt Schaefer Republican Party $331,037 $314,268 $16,769 As of December 31, 2024

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[18][19][20]

If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.

By candidate By election

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

  • District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
  • Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
  • State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.


Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

2023_01_03_mo_congressional_district_03.jpg
See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Missouri.

Missouri U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Office Districts/
offices
Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
2024 8 8 1 43 16 6 6 75.0% 5 71.4%
2022 8 8 2 57 16 6 8 87.5% 6 100.0%
2020 8 8 0 40 16 4 6 62.5% 6 75.0%
2018 8 8 0 39 16 5 6 68.8% 5 62.5%
2016 8 8 0 45 16 5 8 81.3% 8 100.0%
2014 8 8 0 36 16 4 6 62.5% 5 62.5%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Missouri in 2024. Information below was calculated on June 4, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Forty-three candidates ran for Missouri’s eight U.S. House districts, including 16 Democrats and 27 Republicans. That's an average of 5.38 candidates per district. That’s lower than the 7.13 candidates per district in 2022 but more than the 5.00 in 2020.

The 3rd Congressional District was the only open district. That’s one less than in 2022 when two seats were open. There were no open seats in 2020, 2018, 2016, and 2014.

Incumbent Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-03) did not run for re-election because he retired from public office.

Two congressional districts—the 1st and the 3rd—were tied for the most candidates running in a district in 2024. Four Democrats and five Republicans ran in the 1st Congressional District, and two Democrats and seven Republicans ran in the 3rd Congressional District.

Twelve primaries—six Democratic and six Republican—were contested in 2024. Between 2022 and 2014, there was an average of 11.6 contested primaries per year.

Five incumbents—one Democrat and four Republicans—were in contested primaries tin 2024, tying with 2018 and 2014 for the fewest this decade.

Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all eight districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+16. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 16 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Missouri's 3rd the 75th most Republican district nationally.[21]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Missouri's 3rd based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
35.9% 62.2%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.[22] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline Democratic Party Republican Baseline Republican Party Difference
36.0 61.1 R+25.1

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Missouri, 2020

Missouri presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 14 Democratic wins
  • 17 Republican wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party D R R D D R R R D D D D D R D D D R R D R R R D D R R R R R R
See also: Party control of Missouri state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Missouri's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Missouri
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 0 2 2
Republican 2 6 8
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 8 10

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Missouri's top four state executive offices as May 2024.

State executive officials in Missouri, May 2024
Office Officeholder
Governor Republican Party Mike Parson
Lieutenant Governor Republican Party Mike Kehoe
Secretary of State Republican Party Jay Ashcroft
Attorney General Republican Party Andrew Bailey

State legislature

Missouri State Senate

Party As of February 2024
     Democratic Party 10
     Republican Party 24
     Other 0
     Vacancies 0
Total 34

Missouri House of Representatives

Party As of February 2024
     Democratic Party 51
     Republican Party 111
     Other 0
     Vacancies 1
Total 163

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

Missouri Party Control: 1992-2024
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  Twelve years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Missouri in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Missouri, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Missouri U.S. House Ballot-qualified party N/A $300.00 3/26/2024 Source
Missouri U.S. House Unaffiliated 2% of votes cast for the office in the last election, or 10,000, whichever is less N/A 7/29/2024 Source

District history

2022

See also: Missouri's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022

General election

General election for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Incumbent Blaine Luetkemeyer defeated Bethany Mann and Thomas Clapp in the general election for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on November 8, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Blaine Luetkemeyer
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)
 
65.1
 
180,746
Image of Bethany Mann
Bethany Mann (D) Candidate Connection
 
34.9
 
96,851
Thomas Clapp (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
0

Total votes: 277,597
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Bethany Mann defeated Jon Karlen, Andrew Daly, and Dylan Durrwachter in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Bethany Mann
Bethany Mann Candidate Connection
 
62.2
 
22,638
Image of Jon Karlen
Jon Karlen Candidate Connection
 
20.2
 
7,349
Image of Andrew Daly
Andrew Daly Candidate Connection
 
14.3
 
5,184
Dylan Durrwachter
 
3.3
 
1,197

Total votes: 36,368
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Incumbent Blaine Luetkemeyer defeated Brandon Wilkinson, Dustin Hill, and Richard Skwira Jr. in the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on August 2, 2022.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Blaine Luetkemeyer
Blaine Luetkemeyer
 
69.6
 
66,430
Image of Brandon Wilkinson
Brandon Wilkinson Candidate Connection
 
16.5
 
15,796
Image of Dustin Hill
Dustin Hill Candidate Connection
 
12.2
 
11,610
Richard Skwira Jr.
 
1.7
 
1,616

Total votes: 95,452
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2020

See also: Missouri's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

General election

General election for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Incumbent Blaine Luetkemeyer defeated Megan Rezabek, Leonard Steinman II, and Thomas Clapp in the general election for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Blaine Luetkemeyer
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)
 
69.4
 
282,866
Image of Megan Rezabek
Megan Rezabek (D)
 
28.5
 
116,095
Image of Leonard Steinman II
Leonard Steinman II (L)
 
2.0
 
8,344
Thomas Clapp (Independent) (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
43

Total votes: 407,348
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Megan Rezabek defeated Dennis Oglesby in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Megan Rezabek
Megan Rezabek
 
66.8
 
27,826
Image of Dennis Oglesby
Dennis Oglesby Candidate Connection
 
33.2
 
13,801

Total votes: 41,627
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Incumbent Blaine Luetkemeyer defeated Brandon Wilkinson, Lynette Trares, Jeffrey Nowak, and Adela Wisdom in the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Blaine Luetkemeyer
Blaine Luetkemeyer
 
74.8
 
80,627
Image of Brandon Wilkinson
Brandon Wilkinson Candidate Connection
 
14.8
 
15,901
Image of Lynette Trares
Lynette Trares Candidate Connection
 
3.9
 
4,197
Image of Jeffrey Nowak
Jeffrey Nowak Candidate Connection
 
3.3
 
3,517
Image of Adela Wisdom
Adela Wisdom Candidate Connection
 
3.2
 
3,485

Total votes: 107,727
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Leonard Steinman II advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Leonard Steinman II
Leonard Steinman II
 
100.0
 
627

Total votes: 627
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2018

See also: Missouri's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Incumbent Blaine Luetkemeyer defeated Katy Geppert and Donald Stolle in the general election for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Blaine Luetkemeyer
Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)
 
65.1
 
211,243
Image of Katy Geppert
Katy Geppert (D) Candidate Connection
 
32.8
 
106,589
Donald Stolle (L)
 
2.1
 
6,776

Total votes: 324,608
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Katy Geppert advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Katy Geppert
Katy Geppert Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
55,815

Total votes: 55,815
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Incumbent Blaine Luetkemeyer defeated Chadwick Bicknell in the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Blaine Luetkemeyer
Blaine Luetkemeyer
 
79.9
 
95,385
Image of Chadwick Bicknell
Chadwick Bicknell
 
20.1
 
24,000

Total votes: 119,385
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3

Donald Stolle advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 3 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Donald Stolle
 
100.0
 
745

Total votes: 745
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Earlier results


2024 battleground elections

See also: Battlegrounds

This was a battleground election. Other 2024 battleground elections included:

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. Bob Onder 2024 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed July 14, 2024
  2. Missouri Independent, "Incumbent Blaine Luetkemeyer backs Kurt Schaefer in Missouri 3rd District primary," April 2, 2024
  3. STLPR, "Two former GOP state senators duke it out in race to succeed Luetkemeyer in Congress," July 24, 2024
  4. Bob Onder 2024 campaign website, "About Dr. Onder," accessed July 14, 2024
  5. STLPR, "Former Missouri state Sen. Bob Onder runs for 3rd District congressional seat," February 2, 2024
  6. 6.0 6.1 Bob Onder 2024 campaign website, "Dr. Bob Onder’s Priorities," accessed July 14, 2024
  7. Missouri House of Representatives, "House Bill No. 126," accessed July 17, 2024
  8. Club for Growth, "Bob Onder," accessed July 14, 2024
  9. Missouri State Senator Kurt Schaefer, "Biography," accessed July 14, 2024
  10. Missouri Independent, "Former Boone County senator files to run in 3rd District congressional GOP primary," February 27, 2024
  11. Kurt Schaefer 2024 campaign website, "Securing Our Border," accessed July 14, 2024
  12. Kurt Schaefer 2024 campaign website, "Fiscal Champion," accessed July 14, 2024
  13. Kurt Schaefer 2024 campaign website, "Supporting President Trump," accessed July 14, 2024
  14. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  15. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  16. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  17. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  18. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed December 12, 2021
  19. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed December 12, 2021
  20. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," December 12, 2021
  21. Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
  22. Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023
  23. Missouri Secretary of State, "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List," accessed March 30, 2016
  24. Politico, "Missouri House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  25. CNN, "Missouri House 03 Results," November 8, 2016
  26. Politico, "2012 Election Map, Missouri," accessed November 7, 2012
  27. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  28. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
  29. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
  30. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
  31. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
  32. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Bob Onder (R)
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
Republican Party (8)
Democratic Party (2)