Missouri's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House Missouri District 4

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Vicky Hartzler
Vicky Hartzler (R)
 
64.8
 
190,138
Image of Renee Hoagenson
Renee Hoagenson (D) Candidate Connection
 
32.7
 
95,968
Image of Mark Bliss
Mark Bliss (L)
 
2.5
 
7,210

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 293,316
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Missouri's 4th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 27, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Vicky Hartzler (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Missouri
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+17
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Missouri's 4th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th
Missouri elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of Missouri, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Vicky Hartzler (R), who was first elected in 2010.

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Missouri's 4th Congressional District was located in the central and western portion of the state and included Barton, Bates, Benton, Boone, Cass, Cedar, Cooper, Dade, Dallas, Henry, Hickory, Howard, Johnson, Laclede, Moniteau, Morgan, Pettis, Pulaski, Randolph, St. Clair, and Vernon counties. The district also included areas of Audrain, Camden, and Webster counties.[1]




Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Missouri District 4

Incumbent Vicky Hartzler defeated Renee Hoagenson and Mark Bliss in the general election for U.S. House Missouri District 4 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Vicky Hartzler
Vicky Hartzler (R)
 
64.8
 
190,138
Image of Renee Hoagenson
Renee Hoagenson (D) Candidate Connection
 
32.7
 
95,968
Image of Mark Bliss
Mark Bliss (L)
 
2.5
 
7,210

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 293,316
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 4

Renee Hoagenson defeated Hallie Thompson in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Missouri District 4 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Renee Hoagenson
Renee Hoagenson Candidate Connection
 
51.9
 
24,139
Image of Hallie Thompson
Hallie Thompson
 
48.1
 
22,398

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 46,537
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 4

Incumbent Vicky Hartzler defeated John Webb in the Republican primary for U.S. House Missouri District 4 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Vicky Hartzler
Vicky Hartzler
 
73.5
 
74,226
Image of John Webb
John Webb Candidate Connection
 
26.5
 
26,787

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 101,013
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 4

Mark Bliss defeated Steven Koonse in the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Missouri District 4 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mark Bliss
Mark Bliss
 
56.1
 
398
Image of Steven Koonse
Steven Koonse Candidate Connection
 
43.9
 
312

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 710
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+17, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 17 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Missouri's 4th Congressional District the 59th most Republican nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.77. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.77 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Vicky Hartzler Republican Party $1,273,641 $1,355,733 $280,061 As of December 31, 2018
Renee Hoagenson Democratic Party $460,653 $453,312 $7,977 As of November 26, 2018
Mark Bliss Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Missouri's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Vicky Hartzler (R) defeated Gordon Christensen (D) and Mark Bliss (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Hartzler defeated John Webb in the Republican primary, while Christensen defeated Jack Truman to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on August 2, 2016. Hartzler won re-election in the November 8 election.[4][5][6]

U.S. House, Missouri District 4 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngVicky Hartzler Incumbent 67.8% 225,348
     Democratic Gordon Christensen 27.8% 92,510
     Libertarian Mark Bliss 4.3% 14,376
Total Votes 332,234
Source: Missouri Secretary of State


U.S. House, Missouri District 4 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngGordon Christensen 62.7% 17,160
Jack Truman 37.3% 10,196
Total Votes 27,356
Source: Missouri Secretary of State


U.S. House, Missouri District 4 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngVicky Hartzler Incumbent 72.5% 73,853
John Webb 27.5% 28,037
Total Votes 101,890
Source: Missouri Secretary of State

2014

See also: Missouri's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of Missouri held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Vicky Hartzler (R) defeated Nate Irvin (D) and Herschel Young (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, Missouri District 4 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngVicky Hartzler Incumbent 68.1% 120,014
     Democratic Nate Irvin 26.4% 46,464
     Libertarian Herschel Young 5.6% 9,793
     Write-in Gregory A. Cowan 0% 15
Total Votes 176,286
Source: Missouri Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Missouri. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Missouri with 56.8 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 38.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1820 and 2016, Missouri voted Democratic 60 percent of the time and Republican 36 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Missouri voted Republican all five times.[7]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Missouri. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 43 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 42.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 43 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 42.3 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 120 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 28.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 120 out of 163 state House districts in Missouri with an average margin of victory of 39.8 points. Trump won four districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Missouri heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Missouri General Assembly. They had a 109-45 majority in the state House and a 23-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Missouri was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Missouri elections, 2018

Missouri held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Missouri
 MissouriU.S.
Total population:6,076,204316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):68,7423,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:82.6%73.6%
Black/African American:11.5%12.6%
Asian:1.8%5.1%
Native American:0.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:88.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.1%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$48,173$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Missouri.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Missouri's three largest cities were Kansas City (pop. est. 488,943), St. Louis (pop. est. 308,626), and Springfield (pop. est. 167,376).[10][11]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Missouri from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Missouri Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Missouri every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Missouri 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 56.4% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 37.9% 18.5%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 53.8% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.4% 9.4%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 49.4% Democratic Party Barack Obama 49.3% 0.1%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 53.3% Democratic Party John Kerry 46.1% 7.2%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 50.4% Democratic Party Al Gore 47.1% 3.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Missouri from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Missouri 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Roy Blunt 49.2% Democratic Party Jason Kander 46.4% 2.8%
2012 Democratic Party Claire McCaskill 54.8% Republican Party Todd Akin 39.1% 15.7%
2010 Republican Party Roy Blunt 54.2% Democratic Party Robin Carnahan 40.6% 13.6%
2006 Democratic Party Claire McCaskill 49.6% Republican Party Jim Talent 47.3% 2.3%
2004 Republican Party Kit Bond 56.1% Democratic Party Nancy Farmer 42.8% 13.3%
2000 Democratic Party Mel Carnahan 50.5% Republican Party John Ashcroft 48.4% 2.1%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Missouri.

Election results (Governor), Missouri 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Eric Greitens 51.1% Democratic Party Chris Koster 45.5% 5.6%
2012 Democratic Party Jay Nixon 54.8% Republican Party Dave Spence 42.5% 12.3%
2008 Democratic Party Jay Nixon 58.4% Republican Party Kenny Hulshof 39.5% 18.9%
2004 Republican Party Matt Blunt 50.8% Democratic Party Claire McCaskill 47.9% 2.9%
2000 Democratic Party Bob Holden 49.1% Republican Party Jim Talent 48.2% 0.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Missouri in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Missouri 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2014 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2012 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2010 Republican Party 6 33.3% Democratic Party 3 66.7% R+3
2008 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2006 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2004 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2002 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2000 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Missouri Party Control: 1992-2026
Eight years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
Governor R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Missouri Secretary of State, "UNOFFICIAL Candidate Filing List," accessed March 30, 2016
  5. ↑ Politico, "Missouri House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  6. ↑ CNN, "Missouri House 04 Results," November 8, 2016
  7. ↑ 270towin.com, "Missouri," accessed June 29, 2017
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  10. ↑ Missouri Demographics, "Missouri Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
  11. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Missouri," accessed September 5, 2018
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Missouri's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Josh Hawley (R)
Eric Schmitt (R)
Representatives
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Bob Onder (R)
District 4
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