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Montana's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024 (June 4 Democratic primary)

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Montana's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 11, 2024
Primary: June 4, 2024
General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Montana
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
DDHQ and The Hill: Safe Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
Montana's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd
Montana elections, 2024
U.S. Congress elections, 2024
U.S. Senate elections, 2024
U.S. House elections, 2024

A Democratic Party primary took place on June 4, 2024, in Montana's 2nd Congressional District to determine which Democratic candidate would run in the district's general election on November 5, 2024.

John B. Driscoll advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana District 2.

All 435 seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans had a 220 to 212 majority with three vacancies.[1] As of June 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.

In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 56.6%-20.2%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 62.2%-35.3%.[2]

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 11, 2024
June 4, 2024
November 5, 2024


A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Montana utilizes an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.[3][4]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

This page focuses on Montana's 2nd Congressional District Democratic primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Republican primary and the general election, see the following pages:

Candidates and election results


Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana District 2

John B. Driscoll defeated Steve Held, Ming Cabrera, and Kevin Hamm in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana District 2 on June 4, 2024.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of John B. Driscoll
John B. Driscoll
 
33.3
 
13,420
Image of Steve Held
Steve Held
 
26.4
 
10,649
Image of Ming Cabrera
Ming Cabrera Candidate Connection
 
20.9
 
8,408
Image of Kevin Hamm
Kevin Hamm
 
19.4
 
7,813

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 40,290
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Ming Cabrera

Image of Ming Cabrera

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Submitted Biography:  "As a proud lifelong Montanan, I understand what matters to our state because my values are Montana values. We all know what happens when out-of-state, out-of-touch politicians speak for us; it’s time that Montana’s voice in Congress belongs to a real Montanan, who understands our way of life and knows what matters most to us. As a candidate for the US House of Representatives, I am dedicated to fiercely championing the interests of Montanans in Washington, DC – from the preservation of our cherished public lands and the fortification of our agricultural sector, to defending public education and improving access to affordable healthcare. It’s going to take someone with a strong backbone and a proven ability to reach across the aisle to serve as a voice for Montana. I’m ready to be that voice, and I ask for your support in making it happen."

Key Messages

To read this candidate's full survey responses, click here.

The closure of nursing homes, rural hospitals and lack of mental healthcare access to essential service highlight the need for action. We must work together to ensure access to essential services in underserved areas and to expand Medicare prescription drug coverage right now. These actions are essential to alleviate financial burdens on our elderly and at-risk populations, and on the taxpayers who are footing the bill for expensive and preventable emergency services in the absence of preventative care. Furthermore, it is important that we untie the hands of healthcare providers and empower them to make diagnostic decisions instead of asking them to spend their precious time negotiating with bureaucrats who hold the purse strings.

The recent Farm Bill has faced legislative hurdles for enactment with insufficient votes to pass the House floor with delays in short term extensions with no markups or legislative action. The number one economy of Montana is farming, and it is imperative our communities be able to plan their future. Some issues to discuss in this bill are crop and disaster insurance, appropriations for SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program), farm commodity and dairy programs and inconsistent government policies that reduce the effects of Montana farmers to sell their products overseas. We need a solid, consistent Farm Bill.

Affordable Housing Montana, like many parts of our nation, is facing a housing affordability crisis, leaving far too many families struggling to find safe and affordable housing. This crisis is not only impacting individuals and families but also our communities and economy. Here are some potential approaches that I believe could make a real difference. We need Congress to address investing in housing initiatives, promoting homeownership opportunities, limiting corporate ownership of residential property, addressing zoning and regulatory barriers and support sustainable housing solutions.

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Montana District 2 in 2024.

Voting information

See also: Voting in Montana

Election information in Montana: June 4, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

  • In-person: June 4, 2024
  • By mail: Postmarked by May 6, 2024
  • Online: N/A

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

  • In-person: June 3, 2024
  • By mail: N/A by N/A
  • Online: N/A

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

  • In-person: June 4, 2024
  • By mail: Received by June 4, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

N/A

What were the early voting start and end dates?

May 6, 2024 to June 3, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. - 8:00 p.m. (MST)


Campaign finance

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Ming Cabrera Democratic Party $61,522 $61,522 $0 As of September 30, 2024
John B. Driscoll Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Kevin Hamm Democratic Party $71,856 $71,856 $0 As of August 30, 2024
Steve Held Democratic Party $96,204 $96,204 $0 As of August 11, 2024

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

  • District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
  • Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
  • Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
  • State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.


Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

2023_01_03_mt_congressional_district_02.jpg
See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Montana.

Montana U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Year Districts/
offices 		Seats Open seats Candidates Possible primaries Contested Democratic primaries Contested Republican primaries % of contested primaries Incumbents in contested primaries % of incumbents in contested primaries
2024 2 2 1 16 4 1 2 75.0% 1 100.0%
2022 2 2 1 15 4 2 2 100.0% 1 100.0%
2020 1 1 1 8 2 1 1 100.0% 0 N/A
2018 1 1 0 7 2 1 0 50.0% 0 0.0%
2016 1 1 0 2 2 0 0 0.0% 0 0.0%
2014 1 1 1 7 2 1 1 100.0% 0 N/A

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Montana in 2024. Information below was calculated on March 31, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Sixteen candidates, including five Democrats and 11 Republicans, ran for Montana’s two U.S. House districts in 2024. That’s eight candidates per district, higher than the 7.5 candidates who ran in 2022 but the same as the eight candidates who ran in 2020.

The total number of candidates who ran for the U.S. House in 2024 was also higher than any other year this decade. Fifteen candidates ran in 2022, eight in 2020, seven in 2018, two in 2016, and seven in 2014.

One seat was open in 2024, meaning an incumbent did not run for re-election. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-2nd) did not run for re-election because he is retired from public office.

Thirteen candidates—four Democrats and nine Republicans—ran for the open 2nd Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a seat in 2024.

Three primaries—one Democratic and two Republican—were contested in 2024. Four primaries were contested in 2022, two primaries were contested in 2020, and one was in 2018.

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-1st) was the only incumbent who faced a primary challenger in 2024.

Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in both districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+16. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 16 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Montana's 2nd the 71st most Republican district nationally.[5]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Montana's 2nd based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden Democratic Party Donald Trump Republican Party
35.3% 62.2%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.[6] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline Democratic Party Republican Baseline Republican Party Difference
38.0 58.5 R+20.5

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Montana, 2020

Montana presidential election results (1900-2020)

  • 10 Democratic wins
  • 21 Republican wins
Year 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Winning Party D R R D D R R R D D D D D R R R D R R R R R R D R R R R R R R
See also: Party control of Montana state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Montana's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Montana
Party U.S. Senate U.S. House Total
Democratic 0 0 0
Republican 2 2 4
Independent 0 0 0
Vacancies 0 0 0
Total 2 2 4

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Montana's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Montana, May 2024
Office Officeholder
Governor Republican Party Greg Gianforte
Lieutenant Governor Republican Party Kristen Juras
Secretary of State Republican Party Christi Jacobsen
Attorney General Republican Party Austin Knudsen

State legislature

Montana State Senate

Party As of February 2024
     Democratic Party 16
     Republican Party 34
     Other 0
     Vacancies 0
Total 50

Montana House of Representatives

Party As of February 2024
     Democratic Party 32
     Republican Party 68
     Other 0
     Vacancies 0
Total 100

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

Montana Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R
Senate D D D R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D R R R R R R R R R R R R S S R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R

Ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Montana in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Montana, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State Office Party Signatures required Filing fee Filing deadline Source
Montana U.S. House Ballot-qualified party N/A $1,740.00 3/11/2024 Source
Montana U.S. House Unaffiliated 6,128[7] $1,740.00 6/3/2024 Source

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
  2. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
  3. ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed April 19, 2023
  4. ↑ Christi Jacobsen Montana Secretary of State,"Frequently Asked Questions," accessed April 19, 2023
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
  6. ↑ Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023
  7. ↑ Average of all congressional districts.


Montana's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Steve Daines (R)
Tim Sheehy (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Republican Party (4)


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