Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Adrian Smith (R) | 76.7 | 163,650 |
 | Paul Theobald (D) | 23.3 | 49,654 | |
| Total votes: 213,304 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 19
- Early voting: Oct. 9 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Central Time and 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. Mountain Time
2020 →
← 2016
|
| Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 1, 2018 |
| Primary: May 15, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Adrian Smith (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. (Central time zone); 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. (Mountain time zone) Voting in Nebraska |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd Nebraska elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Nebraska, held elections in 2018.
Heading into the election the incumbent was Adrian Smith (R), who was first elected in 2006.
Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District is located in the western portion of the state and includes Adams, Antelope, Arthur, Banner, Blaine, Boone, Box Butte, Boyd, Brown, Buffalo, Cedar, chase, Cherry, Cheyenne, Clay, Custer, Dakota, Dawes, Dawson, Deuel, Dundy, Fillmore, Franklin, Frontier, Furnas, Gage, Garden, Garfield, Gosper, Grant, Greeley, Hall, Hamilton, Harlan, Hayes, Hitchcock, Holt, Hooker, Howard, Jefferson, Johnson, Kearney, Keith, Keya Paha, Kimball, Knox, Lincoln, Logan, Loup, McPherson, Morrill, Nance, Nemaha, Nuckolls, Pawnee, Perkins, Phelps, Pierce, Red Willow, Richardson, Rock, Saline, Scotts Bluff, Sheridan, Sherman, Sioux, Thayer, Thomas, Valley, Wayne, Webster, Wheeler, and York counties. Parts of Dixon and Merrick counties also lie within the district.[1]
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Incumbent Adrian Smith defeated Paul Theobald in the general election for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Adrian Smith (R) | 76.7 | 163,650 |
| Paul Theobald (D) | 23.3 | 49,654 | |
| Total votes: 213,304 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Paul Theobald advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Paul Theobald | 100.0 | 16,395 |
| Total votes: 16,395 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Incumbent Adrian Smith defeated Kirk Penner, Arron Kowalski, and Larry Bolinger in the Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Adrian Smith | 65.7 | 50,878 |
 | Kirk Penner | 26.0 | 20,116 | |
| Arron Kowalski | 5.8 | 4,461 | ||
 | Larry Bolinger | 2.5 | 1,935 | |
| Total votes: 77,390 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+27, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 27 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District the 11th most Republican nationally.[2]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[3]
Campaign contributions
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Smith | Republican Party | $1,223,356 | $1,612,145 | $787,578 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Paul Theobald | Democratic Party | $80,014 | $73,490 | $6,524 | As of December 31, 2018 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Adrian Smith faced no opposition in the general election on November 8, 2016. No Democratic candidates filed to run in 2016. Smith also faced no primary opponent on May 10, 2016.[4]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Adrian Smith Incumbent |
100% | 226,720 | |
| Total Votes | 226,720 | |||
| Source: Nebraska Secretary of State | ||||
2014
The 3rd Congressional District of Nebraska held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Adrian Smith (R) defeated Mark Sullivan (D) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Adrian Smith Incumbent |
75.4% | 139,440 | |
| Democratic | Mark Sullivan | 24.6% | 45,524 | |
| Total Votes | 184,964 | |||
| Source: Nebraska Secretary of State | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
One of 93 Nebraska counties—1.08 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Thurston County, Nebraska | 5.94% | 13.91% | 6.96% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Nebraska with 58.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 33.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1868 and 2016, Nebraska voted Republican 82 percent of the time and Democratic 18 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Nebraska voted Republican all five times.[5]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Nebraska. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[6][7]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 10 out of 49 state Senate districts in Nebraska with an average margin of victory of 26.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 12 out of 49 state Senate districts in Nebraska with an average margin of victory of 22.8 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 49 state Senate districts in Nebraska with an average margin of victory of 31.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 37 out of 49 state Senate districts in Nebraska with an average margin of victory of 38.3 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state Senate District | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 35.00% | 62.82% | R+27.8 | 25.56% | 68.52% | R+43 | R |
| 2 | 34.70% | 63.63% | R+28.9 | 28.10% | 65.62% | R+37.5 | R |
| 3 | 39.04% | 59.04% | R+20 | 36.88% | 55.76% | R+18.9 | D |
| 4 | 33.37% | 65.51% | R+32.1 | 37.83% | 56.86% | R+19 | R |
| 5 | 56.53% | 41.59% | D+14.9 | 53.64% | 40.42% | D+13.2 | D |
| 6 | 44.02% | 54.75% | R+10.7 | 49.08% | 45.79% | D+3.3 | R |
| 7 | 63.42% | 34.32% | D+29.1 | 63.88% | 29.08% | D+34.8 | D |
| 8 | 61.53% | 36.52% | D+25 | 63.44% | 29.78% | D+33.7 | D |
| 9 | 58.49% | 39.32% | D+19.2 | 61.55% | 31.87% | D+29.7 | D |
| 10 | 45.04% | 53.54% | R+8.5 | 44.08% | 50.23% | R+6.1 | I |
| 11 | 91.12% | 8.07% | D+83.1 | 85.83% | 10.84% | D+75 | I |
| 12 | 43.61% | 54.71% | R+11.1 | 42.37% | 51.31% | R+8.9 | R |
| 13 | 64.84% | 33.83% | D+31 | 61.33% | 33.93% | D+27.4 | D |
| 14 | 37.62% | 60.56% | R+22.9 | 36.43% | 56.65% | R+20.2 | R |
| 15 | 38.07% | 60.36% | R+22.3 | 29.77% | 65.08% | R+35.3 | D |
| 16 | 31.13% | 67.37% | R+36.2 | 23.45% | 70.90% | R+47.4 | R |
| 17 | 43.76% | 54.47% | R+10.7 | 33.78% | 61.06% | R+27.3 | R |
| 18 | 44.60% | 54.31% | R+9.7 | 45.14% | 48.75% | R+3.6 | R |
| 19 | 25.28% | 72.70% | R+47.4 | 19.05% | 75.26% | R+56.2 | R |
| 20 | 42.76% | 55.71% | R+13 | 45.35% | 48.92% | R+3.6 | R |
| 21 | 46.85% | 51.27% | R+4.4 | 40.87% | 51.98% | R+11.1 | R |
| 22 | 23.32% | 75.02% | R+51.7 | 18.05% | 77.74% | R+59.7 | R |
| 23 | 31.22% | 66.98% | R+35.8 | 23.17% | 71.65% | R+48.5 | R |
| 24 | 26.29% | 72.16% | R+45.9 | 20.95% | 73.47% | R+52.5 | R |
| 25 | 38.80% | 59.40% | R+20.6 | 41.24% | 53.38% | R+12.1 | R |
| 26 | 52.21% | 46.11% | D+6.1 | 46.82% | 45.23% | D+1.6 | D |
| 27 | 52.75% | 45.63% | D+7.1 | 50.52% | 42.64% | D+7.9 | D |
| 28 | 60.87% | 37.83% | D+23 | 59.15% | 33.04% | D+26.1 | D |
| 29 | 47.69% | 50.58% | R+2.9 | 49.38% | 43.97% | D+5.4 | D |
| 30 | 38.34% | 59.25% | R+20.9 | 31.53% | 62.47% | R+30.9 | R |
| 31 | 33.78% | 65.04% | R+31.3 | 36.93% | 57.43% | R+20.5 | D |
| 32 | 35.71% | 62.38% | R+26.7 | 27.09% | 67.12% | R+40 | L |
| 33 | 31.50% | 66.71% | R+35.2 | 24.02% | 70.78% | R+46.8 | R |
| 34 | 27.77% | 70.53% | R+42.8 | 20.10% | 75.21% | R+55.1 | R |
| 35 | 39.62% | 58.44% | R+18.8 | 33.52% | 60.87% | R+27.3 | D |
| 36 | 24.72% | 73.31% | R+48.6 | 19.26% | 75.74% | R+56.5 | R |
| 37 | 28.68% | 69.17% | R+40.5 | 24.94% | 68.00% | R+43.1 | R |
| 38 | 23.21% | 74.90% | R+51.7 | 15.08% | 80.37% | R+65.3 | R |
| 39 | 29.09% | 69.93% | R+40.8 | 31.42% | 63.56% | R+32.1 | R |
| 40 | 22.84% | 75.26% | R+52.4 | 14.16% | 81.28% | R+67.1 | R |
| 41 | 23.54% | 74.61% | R+51.1 | 14.72% | 81.15% | R+66.4 | R |
| 42 | 28.61% | 68.98% | R+40.4 | 18.33% | 76.53% | R+58.2 | R |
| 43 | 23.14% | 74.74% | R+51.6 | 14.87% | 80.38% | R+65.5 | R |
| 44 | 18.45% | 80.00% | R+61.6 | 12.02% | 84.03% | R+72 | R |
| 45 | 40.96% | 57.13% | R+16.2 | 37.00% | 55.32% | R+18.3 | D |
| 46 | 60.88% | 37.77% | D+23.1 | 53.57% | 38.24% | D+15.3 | D |
| 47 | 21.99% | 75.82% | R+53.8 | 13.60% | 81.46% | R+67.9 | R |
| 48 | 30.41% | 67.81% | R+37.4 | 22.76% | 71.50% | R+48.7 | R |
| 49 | 34.76% | 63.76% | R+29 | 34.09% | 59.61% | R+25.5 | R |
| Total | 38.21% | 60.08% | R+21.9 | 34.35% | 59.89% | R+25.5 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Nebraska heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2014 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Nebraska.
- Republicans held all three U.S. House seats in Nebraska.
State executives
- As of May 2018, Republicans held six of 10 state executive positions and the remaining four positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of Nebraska was Republican Pete Ricketts.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled the Nebraska unicameral with a 30-16 majority.
Trifecta status
- Nebraska was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the state government. Pete Ricketts (R) served as governor and Republicans controlled the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: Nebraska elections, 2018
Nebraska held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seat
- Three U.S. House seats
- Governor and lieutenant governor
- Four lower state executive positions
- 24 out of 49 state Senate seats
- Municipal elections in Douglas and Lancaster Counties
Demographics
| Demographic data for Nebraska | ||
|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 1,893,765 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 76,824 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 88.1% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 4.7% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 2% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 2.2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 10% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 90.7% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 29.3% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $52,997 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 14.6% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Nebraska. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2017, Nebraska had a population of approximately 1,920,000 people, with its three largest cities being Omaha (pop. est. 450,000), Lincoln (pop. est. 280,000), and Bellevue (pop. est. 54,000).[8][9]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Nebraska from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Nebraska Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Nebraska every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Nebraska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 |  Donald Trump |
58.7% |  Hillary Clinton |
33.7% | 25.0% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
59.8% | Barack Obama |
38.0% | 21.8% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
56.5% | Barack Obama |
41.6% | 14.9% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
65.9% | John Kerry |
32.7% | 33.2% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
62.2% | Al Gore |
33.3% | 28.9% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Nebraska from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Nebraska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Ben Sasse |
64.3% | Dave Domina |
31.5% | 32.8% |
| 2012 | Deb Fischer |
57.8% | Bob Kerrey |
42.2% | 15.6% |
| 2008 | Mike Johanns |
57.5% | Scott Kleeb |
40.1% | 17.4% |
| 2006 | Ben Nelson |
63.9% | Pete Ricketts |
36.1% | 27.8% |
| 2002 | Chuck Hagel |
82.3% | Charlie Matulka |
14.6% | 67.7% |
| 2000 | Ben Nelson |
51.1% | Don Stenberg |
48.9% | 2.2% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Nebraska.
| Election results (Governor), Nebraska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Pete Ricketts |
57.2% | Chuck Hassebrook |
39.2% | 18.0% |
| 2010 | Dave Heineman |
73.9% | Mike Meister |
26.1% | 47.8% |
| 2006 | Dave Heineman |
73.4% | David Hahn |
24.5% | 48.9% |
| 2002 | Mike Johanns |
68.7% | Stormy Dean |
27.5% | 41.2% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Nebraska in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Nebraska 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2014 | 2 |
66.7% | 1 |
33.3% | R+1 |
| 2012 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2010 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2008 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2006 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2004 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2002 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
| 2002 | 3 |
100% | 0 |
0% | R+3 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls the state legislature and the governor's office.
Nebraska Party Control: 1992-2024
Seven years of Democratic trifectas • Twenty-seven years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
See also
- Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Nebraska Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 29, 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Nebraska Secretary of State, "Statewide Candidate List," March 2, 2016
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Nebraska," accessed July 30, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Quick Facts - Nebraska," accessed January 9, 2018
- ↑ Nebraska Demographics, "Nebraska Cities by Population," accessed January 9, 2018
