Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Oct. 23 (in person); Oct. 16 (online; by mail)
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Oct. 5
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: No ID
- Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. (Central time zone); 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. (Mountain time zone)
2022 →
← 2018
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| Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 2, 2020 |
| Primary: May 12, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Adrian Smith (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. (Central time zone); 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. (Mountain time zone) Voting in Nebraska |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd Nebraska elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Nebraska, held elections in 2020.
Incumbent Adrian Smith won election in the general election for U.S. House Nebraska District 3.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Adrian Smith, who was first elected in 2006.
As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District was located in the western portion of the state and included Adams, Antelope, Arthur, Banner, Blaine, Boone, Box Butte, Boyd, Brown, Buffalo, Cedar, chase, Cherry, Cheyenne, Clay, Custer, Dakota, Dawes, Dawson, Deuel, Dundy, Fillmore, Franklin, Frontier, Furnas, Gage, Garden, Garfield, Gosper, Grant, Greeley, Hall, Hamilton, Harlan, Hayes, Hitchcock, Holt, Hooker, Howard, Jefferson, Johnson, Kearney, Keith, Keya Paha, Kimball, Knox, Lincoln, Logan, Loup, McPherson, Morrill, Nance, Nemaha, Nuckolls, Pawnee, Perkins, Phelps, Pierce, Red Willow, Richardson, Rock, Saline, Scotts Bluff, Sheridan, Sherman, Sioux, Thayer, Thomas, Valley, Wayne, Webster, Wheeler, and York counties. Parts of Dixon and Merrick counties were also within the district.[1]
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| Presidential and congressional election results, Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Presidential | U.S. House |
Democratic candidate  |
22.4 | 17.7 |
Republican candidate  |
75.6 | 78.5 |
| Difference | 53.2 | 60.8 |
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Nebraska modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:
- Absentee/mail-in voting: Mail-in ballots were sent to all registered voters in the general election.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Incumbent Adrian Smith defeated Mark Elworth Jr. and Dustin Hobbs in the general election for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Adrian Smith (R) | 78.5 | 225,157 |
 | Mark Elworth Jr. (D) | 17.7 | 50,690 | |
| Dustin Hobbs (L) | 3.8 | 10,923 | ||
| Total votes: 286,770 | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Mark Elworth Jr. advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on May 12, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Mark Elworth Jr. | 100.0 | 26,776 |
| Total votes: 26,776 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- David J. Else (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Incumbent Adrian Smith defeated Arron Kowalski, Justin Moran, William Elfgren, and Larry Bolinger in the Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on May 12, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Adrian Smith | 82.6 | 96,260 |
| Arron Kowalski | 5.5 | 6,424 | ||
 | Justin Moran | 5.5 | 6,374 | |
 | William Elfgren | 3.5 | 4,063 | |
 | Larry Bolinger | 2.9 | 3,389 | |
| Total votes: 116,510 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Libertarian primary election
Libertarian primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Dustin Hobbs advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on May 12, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | Dustin Hobbs | 100.0 | 561 | |
| Total votes: 561 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
One of 93 Nebraska counties—1.08 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Thurston County, Nebraska | 5.94% | 13.91% | 6.96% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Nebraska with 58.7 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 33.7 percent. In presidential elections between 1868 and 2016, Nebraska voted Republican 82 percent of the time and Democratic 18 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Nebraska voted Republican all five times.[2]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Nebraska. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 10 out of 49 state Senate districts in Nebraska with an average margin of victory of 26.2 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 12 out of 49 state Senate districts in Nebraska with an average margin of victory of 22.8 points. Clinton won one district controlled by a Republican heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 49 state Senate districts in Nebraska with an average margin of victory of 31.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 37 out of 49 state Senate districts in Nebraska with an average margin of victory of 38.3 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state Senate District | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 35.00% | 62.82% | R+27.8 | 25.56% | 68.52% | R+43 | R |
| 2 | 34.70% | 63.63% | R+28.9 | 28.10% | 65.62% | R+37.5 | R |
| 3 | 39.04% | 59.04% | R+20 | 36.88% | 55.76% | R+18.9 | D |
| 4 | 33.37% | 65.51% | R+32.1 | 37.83% | 56.86% | R+19 | R |
| 5 | 56.53% | 41.59% | D+14.9 | 53.64% | 40.42% | D+13.2 | D |
| 6 | 44.02% | 54.75% | R+10.7 | 49.08% | 45.79% | D+3.3 | R |
| 7 | 63.42% | 34.32% | D+29.1 | 63.88% | 29.08% | D+34.8 | D |
| 8 | 61.53% | 36.52% | D+25 | 63.44% | 29.78% | D+33.7 | D |
| 9 | 58.49% | 39.32% | D+19.2 | 61.55% | 31.87% | D+29.7 | D |
| 10 | 45.04% | 53.54% | R+8.5 | 44.08% | 50.23% | R+6.1 | I |
| 11 | 91.12% | 8.07% | D+83.1 | 85.83% | 10.84% | D+75 | I |
| 12 | 43.61% | 54.71% | R+11.1 | 42.37% | 51.31% | R+8.9 | R |
| 13 | 64.84% | 33.83% | D+31 | 61.33% | 33.93% | D+27.4 | D |
| 14 | 37.62% | 60.56% | R+22.9 | 36.43% | 56.65% | R+20.2 | R |
| 15 | 38.07% | 60.36% | R+22.3 | 29.77% | 65.08% | R+35.3 | D |
| 16 | 31.13% | 67.37% | R+36.2 | 23.45% | 70.90% | R+47.4 | R |
| 17 | 43.76% | 54.47% | R+10.7 | 33.78% | 61.06% | R+27.3 | R |
| 18 | 44.60% | 54.31% | R+9.7 | 45.14% | 48.75% | R+3.6 | R |
| 19 | 25.28% | 72.70% | R+47.4 | 19.05% | 75.26% | R+56.2 | R |
| 20 | 42.76% | 55.71% | R+13 | 45.35% | 48.92% | R+3.6 | R |
| 21 | 46.85% | 51.27% | R+4.4 | 40.87% | 51.98% | R+11.1 | R |
| 22 | 23.32% | 75.02% | R+51.7 | 18.05% | 77.74% | R+59.7 | R |
| 23 | 31.22% | 66.98% | R+35.8 | 23.17% | 71.65% | R+48.5 | R |
| 24 | 26.29% | 72.16% | R+45.9 | 20.95% | 73.47% | R+52.5 | R |
| 25 | 38.80% | 59.40% | R+20.6 | 41.24% | 53.38% | R+12.1 | R |
| 26 | 52.21% | 46.11% | D+6.1 | 46.82% | 45.23% | D+1.6 | D |
| 27 | 52.75% | 45.63% | D+7.1 | 50.52% | 42.64% | D+7.9 | D |
| 28 | 60.87% | 37.83% | D+23 | 59.15% | 33.04% | D+26.1 | D |
| 29 | 47.69% | 50.58% | R+2.9 | 49.38% | 43.97% | D+5.4 | D |
| 30 | 38.34% | 59.25% | R+20.9 | 31.53% | 62.47% | R+30.9 | R |
| 31 | 33.78% | 65.04% | R+31.3 | 36.93% | 57.43% | R+20.5 | D |
| 32 | 35.71% | 62.38% | R+26.7 | 27.09% | 67.12% | R+40 | L |
| 33 | 31.50% | 66.71% | R+35.2 | 24.02% | 70.78% | R+46.8 | R |
| 34 | 27.77% | 70.53% | R+42.8 | 20.10% | 75.21% | R+55.1 | R |
| 35 | 39.62% | 58.44% | R+18.8 | 33.52% | 60.87% | R+27.3 | D |
| 36 | 24.72% | 73.31% | R+48.6 | 19.26% | 75.74% | R+56.5 | R |
| 37 | 28.68% | 69.17% | R+40.5 | 24.94% | 68.00% | R+43.1 | R |
| 38 | 23.21% | 74.90% | R+51.7 | 15.08% | 80.37% | R+65.3 | R |
| 39 | 29.09% | 69.93% | R+40.8 | 31.42% | 63.56% | R+32.1 | R |
| 40 | 22.84% | 75.26% | R+52.4 | 14.16% | 81.28% | R+67.1 | R |
| 41 | 23.54% | 74.61% | R+51.1 | 14.72% | 81.15% | R+66.4 | R |
| 42 | 28.61% | 68.98% | R+40.4 | 18.33% | 76.53% | R+58.2 | R |
| 43 | 23.14% | 74.74% | R+51.6 | 14.87% | 80.38% | R+65.5 | R |
| 44 | 18.45% | 80.00% | R+61.6 | 12.02% | 84.03% | R+72 | R |
| 45 | 40.96% | 57.13% | R+16.2 | 37.00% | 55.32% | R+18.3 | D |
| 46 | 60.88% | 37.77% | D+23.1 | 53.57% | 38.24% | D+15.3 | D |
| 47 | 21.99% | 75.82% | R+53.8 | 13.60% | 81.46% | R+67.9 | R |
| 48 | 30.41% | 67.81% | R+37.4 | 22.76% | 71.50% | R+48.7 | R |
| 49 | 34.76% | 63.76% | R+29 | 34.09% | 59.61% | R+25.5 | R |
| Total | 38.21% | 60.08% | R+21.9 | 34.35% | 59.89% | R+25.5 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+27, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 27 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District the 11th most Republican nationally.[5]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[6]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Smith | Republican Party | $1,511,709 | $1,153,644 | $1,145,643 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Mark Elworth Jr. | Democratic Party | $109 | $0 | $109 | As of June 30, 2020 |
| Dustin Hobbs | Libertarian Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]
| Race ratings: Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Incumbent Adrian Smith defeated Paul Theobald in the general election for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Adrian Smith (R) | 76.7 | 163,650 |
 | Paul Theobald (D) | 23.3 | 49,654 | |
| Total votes: 213,304 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Paul Theobald advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Paul Theobald | 100.0 | 16,395 |
| Total votes: 16,395 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Incumbent Adrian Smith defeated Kirk Penner, Arron Kowalski, and Larry Bolinger in the Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on May 15, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Adrian Smith | 65.7 | 50,878 |
 | Kirk Penner | 26.0 | 20,116 | |
| Arron Kowalski | 5.8 | 4,461 | ||
| Larry Bolinger | 2.5 | 1,935 | |
| Total votes: 77,390 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Adrian Smith faced no opposition in the general election on November 8, 2016. No Democratic candidates filed to run in 2016. Smith also faced no primary opponent on May 10, 2016.[13]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Adrian Smith Incumbent |
100% | 226,720 | |
| Total Votes | 226,720 | |||
| Source: Nebraska Secretary of State | ||||
2014
The 3rd Congressional District of Nebraska held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Adrian Smith (R) defeated Mark Sullivan (D) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Adrian Smith Incumbent |
75.4% | 139,440 | |
| Democratic | Mark Sullivan | 24.6% | 45,524 | |
| Total Votes | 184,964 | |||
| Source: Nebraska Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Nebraska Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed August 29, 2012
- ↑ 270towin.com, "Nebraska," accessed July 30, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Nebraska Secretary of State, "Statewide Candidate List," March 2, 2016
