Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (May 14 Republican primary)
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| Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District |
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: February 15, 2024 (incumbent) March 1, 2024 (non-incumbent) |
| Primary: May 14, 2024 General: November 5, 2024 |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. (Central time zone); 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. (Mountain time zone) Voting in Nebraska |
| Race ratings |
DDHQ and The Hill: Safe Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd Nebraska elections, 2024 U.S. Congress elections, 2024 U.S. Senate elections, 2024 U.S. House elections, 2024 |
A Republican Party primary took place on May 14, 2024, in Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District to determine which Republican candidate would run in the district's general election on November 5, 2024.
Incumbent Adrian Smith advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3.
All 435 seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Republicans had a 220 to 212 majority with three vacancies.[1] As of June 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.
In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 78.3%-15.8%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) would have defeated Joe Biden (D) 74.9%-23.1%.[2]
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. In Nebraska, a top-two primary system is used for the nonpartisan legislature and some other statewide races. All other primaries are semi-closed.[3]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
This page focuses on Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District Republican primary. For more in-depth information on the district's Democratic primary and the general election, see the following pages:
- Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (May 14 Democratic primary)
- Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024
Candidates and election results
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3
Incumbent Adrian Smith defeated John Walz and Robert McCuiston in the Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 on May 14, 2024.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Adrian Smith | 74.2 | 68,056 |
 | John Walz  | 18.6 | 17,060 | |
 | Robert McCuiston | 7.3 | 6,654 | |
| Total votes: 91,770 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "My name is Robert McCuiston a conservative Candidate for the position of the 3rd Congressional District of Nebraska. I am not your usual political figure that is a "Yes Man" for the establishment Republican Party in Washington that continues to work for the wealthy. I am a native of Nebraska and have a passion for this state and our Republic of America. Our country is heading in the direction of inequality that has been the norm since the 1970"s and the disenfranchised as well as the middle class continues to suffer like no time in my life. My background in the disciplines include, Micro and, Macro Economics, Banking, Finance, Accounting, Law and foreign management policies. I have worked most of my entire life at various jobs in Nebraska of which have provide a moderate wage for a middle class life style, but that's no more. I currently hold a Nebraska City Street and County Highway Superintendents License and had various other Licenses including Insurance."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 in 2024.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I grew up in a small town, where I worked for multiple dairy farmers while attending high school. In 1989, I enlisted in the Marine Corps and served in the Persian Gulf, working as a helicopter mechanic during several campaigns. It was during my time in the military that I met my wife, with whom I've shared over 30 years of marriage and raised a family of 10 children. After leaving the military I decided to attend college. Despite facing numerous challenges, including a tragic accident involving my eldest son, I persevered and earned a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering in December of 2002. I found success as a maintenance, project, and engineering manager in various companies and in 2011, I moved to Hastings for a position as the engineering manager at a biofuel company. However, when the company closed in 2014, it prompted a significant shift in my perspective of what was important. Embracing a newfound sense of purpose, my family and I opened a discounted grocery store in Hastings. Our aim was to offer deeply discounted groceries with the intent of providing financial relief young working families and others. As we witness the gratitude of our customers, particularly those young families and single mothers, it affirms our decision to prioritize service over financial gain. Today, eight of our 10 children have spread their wings across the country, leaving two at home—one graduating high school this year and the youngest a sophomore."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Nebraska District 3 in 2024.
Voting information
- See also: Voting in Nebraska
Campaign finance
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Smith | Republican Party | $1,996,681 | $1,982,984 | $928,233 | As of December 31, 2024 |
| Robert McCuiston | Republican Party | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| John Walz | Republican Party | $33,135 | $37,817 | $766 | As of December 31, 2024 |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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District analysis
Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.
- District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
- Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
- Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
- State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.
Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.
This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Nebraska.
| Nebraska U.S. House primary competitiveness, 2014-2024 | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Districts/ offices |
Seats | Open seats | Candidates | Possible primaries | Contested Democratic primaries | Contested Republican primaries | % of contested primaries | Incumbents in contested primaries | % of incumbents in contested primaries | ||||
| 2024 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 66.7% | 3 | 100.0% | ||||
| 2022 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% | ||||
| 2020 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 66.7% | 2 | 66.7% | ||||
| 2018 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 33.3% | ||||
| 2016 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16.7% | 0 | 0.0% | ||||
| 2014 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 66.7% | 3 | 100.0% | ||||
Post-filing deadline analysis
The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Nebraska in 2024. Information below was calculated on March 31, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.
Eleven candidates ran for Nebraska’s three U.S. House districts, including four Democrats and seven Republicans. That’s 3.7 candidates per district, lower than the 5.3 candidates that ran in 2022 and the 4.7 in 2020
Incumbents filed to run in every district.
Five candidates—two Democrats and three Republicans—ran for the 3rd Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a district in 2024.
Four primaries—one Democratic and three Republican—were contested in 2024. Six primaries were contested in 2022, four primaries were contested in 2020, and three were in 2018.
All incumbents faced primary challenges in 2024. The last year all incumbents faced primary challengers was in 2014.
Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all three districts, meaning no seats are guaranteed to either party.
Partisan Voter Index
Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+29. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 29 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Nebraska's 3rd the 5th most Republican district nationally.[4]
2020 presidential election results
The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| 2020 presidential results in Nebraska's 3rd based on 2024 district lines | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden 
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Donald Trump 
| |||
| 23.1% | 74.9% | |||
Inside Elections Baselines
- See also: Inside Elections
Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.[5] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.
| Inside Elections Baseline for 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Baseline
|
Republican Baseline
|
Difference | ||
| 22.7 | 74.3 | D+51.6 | ||
Presidential voting history
- See also: Presidential election in Nebraska, 2020
Nebraska presidential election results (1900-2020)
- 6 Democratic wins
- 25 Republican wins
| Year | 1900 | 1904 | 1908 | 1912 | 1916 | 1920 | 1924 | 1928 | 1932 | 1936 | 1940 | 1944 | 1948 | 1952 | 1956 | 1960 | 1964 | 1968 | 1972 | 1976 | 1980 | 1984 | 1988 | 1992 | 1996 | 2000 | 2004 | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winning Party | R | R | D | D | D | R | R | R | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Congressional delegation
The table below displays the partisan composition of Nebraska's congressional delegation as of May 2024.
| Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Nebraska | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | U.S. Senate | U.S. House | Total |
| Democratic | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Republican | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Independent | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vacancies | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 2 | 3 | 5 |
State executive
The table below displays the officeholders in Nebraska's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.
| State executive officials in Nebraska, May 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Office | Officeholder |
| Governor | Jim Pillen
|
| Lieutenant Governor | Joe Kelly
|
| Secretary of State | Bob Evnen
|
| Attorney General | Mike Hilgers
|
State legislature
Nebraska State Senate
| Party | As of February 2024 | |
|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 16 | |
| Republican Party | 32 | |
| Independent | 0 | |
| Vacancies | 1 | |
| Other | 0 | |
| Total | 49 | |
Trifecta control
The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.
Nebraska Party Control: 1992-2024
Seven years of Democratic trifectas • Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Ballot access
The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Nebraska in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Nebraska, click here.
| Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Office | Party | Signatures required | Filing fee | Filing deadline | Source |
| Nebraska | U.S. House | Ballot-qualified party | N/A | $1,740.00 | 2/15/2024 if incumbent; 3/1/2024 if non-incumbent | Source |
| Nebraska | U.S. House | Unaffiliated | 20% of registered voters in the district who voted for president in 2020, or 2,000, whichever is less | $1,740.00 | 8/1/2024 | Source |
See also
- Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024 (May 14 Democratic primary)
- Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District election, 2024
- United States House elections in Nebraska, 2024 (May 14 Democratic primaries)
- United States House elections in Nebraska, 2024 (May 14 Republican primaries)
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2024
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2024
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2024
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2024
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ A majority in the U.S. House when there are no vacancies is 218 seats.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district, for new and old districts," accessed September 15, 2022
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed April 18, 2023
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "The 2022 Cook Partisan Voting Index (Cook PVI℠)," accessed January 10, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections, "Methodology: Inside Elections’ Baseline by Congressional District," December 8, 2023
