Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024

	2026 → ← 2022
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: ; February 15, 2024 (incumbent); March 1, 2024 (non-incumbent)
	Primary: May 14, 2024; General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
	Poll times: 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. (Central time zone); 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. (Mountain time zone); Voting in Nebraska
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic; DDHQ and The Hill: Lean Democratic; Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
	Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd; Nebraska elections, 2024; U.S. Congress elections, 2024; U.S. Senate elections, 2024; U.S. House elections, 2024; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

Nebraska 2024 elections

U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Congressional special elections • State executive offices • State Senate • Supreme court • State ballot measures • Local ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • Recalls • How to run for office

Incumbent Don Bacon (R) defeated Tony Vargas (D) in the general election for Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District on November 5, 2024. The election was a rematch from 2022, when Bacon defeated Vargas 51.3% to 48.7%.

As of the 2024 election, Nebraska was one of two states that awarded a portion of its electoral votes to its three congressional districts. According to 270towin, Nebraska allocated "two electoral votes to the state popular vote winner, and then one electoral vote to the popular vote winner in each congressional district."^[1]

Between 1991 and 2020, Democrats won the 2nd District's electoral vote twice: Barack Obama (2008) and Joe Biden (2020). Both years, the Republican incumbent in the district won re-election: Lee Terry (2008) and Bacon (2020).^[2]^[3]^[4]

The Guardian wrote that it was “not difficult to imagine a scenario in which the [presidential] race does come down to the urbanized and relatively diverse district spread across three counties on Nebraska’s eastern flank.”^[5]

Bacon was first elected in 2016. He served in the U.S. Air Force from 1985 to 2014, retiring as a brigadier general.^[6] His campaign focused on his rating as the most effective Republican in Congress, decreasing the cost of living, and protecting the southern border.^[7]^[8]^[9] Based on third quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Bacon raised $5.9 million and spent $5.4 million.

Vargas was elected to the Nebraska Senate in 2016. He served on the Omaha Public Schools board and was a public school teacher.^[10] His campaign focused on legal access to abortion, the economy, and increasing education access.^[11]^[12]^[13] Based on third quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Vargas raised $6.7 million and spent $5.9 million.

Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District was one of 34 congressional districts with a Republican incumbent or an open seat the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted in 2024. Before the election, four major election forecasters differed in their ratings for the general election, with two rating it a toss-up, one rating it Tilt Democratic, and one rating it Lean Democratic.

The outcome of this race affected the partisan balance of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 119th Congress. All 435 House districts were up for election.

At the time of the election, Republicans held a 220-212 majority with three vacancies.^[14] As a result of the election, Republicans retained control of the U.S. House, winning 220 seats to Democrats' 215.^[15] To read more about the 2024 U.S. House elections, click here.

In the 2022 election in this district, the Republican candidate won 51.3%-48.7%. Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Joe Biden (D) would have defeated Donald Trump (R) 52.2%-45.8%.^[16]

This was one of 3 districts won by Kamala Harris (D) in the 2024 presidential election and by a Republican candidate in the U.S. House election. To read more, click here.

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Nebraska District 2

Incumbent Don Bacon defeated Tony Vargas in the general election for U.S. House Nebraska District 2 on November 5, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Don Bacon (R)	50.9	160,198
	Tony Vargas (D)	49.1	154,369

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 314,567
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 2

Tony Vargas advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 2 on May 14, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Tony Vargas	100.0	39,038

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 39,038
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 2

Incumbent Don Bacon defeated Dan Frei in the Republican primary for U.S. House Nebraska District 2 on May 14, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Don Bacon	62.0	35,748
	Dan Frei	38.0	21,946

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 57,694
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Voting information

See also: Voting in Nebraska

Election information in Nebraska: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

In-person: Oct. 25, 2024
By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 18, 2024
Online: Oct. 18, 2024

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

Yes

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

In-person: Oct. 25, 2024
By mail: Received by Oct. 25, 2024
Online: Oct. 25, 2024

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Received by Nov. 5, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 7, 2024 to Nov. 4, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

8:00 a.m. - 8:00 p.m. (CST)

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Don Bacon

Party: Republican Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office: U.S. Representative, NE-02 (Assumed office: 2017)

Biography: Prior to his election to the U.S. House, Bacon served in the U.S. Air Force from 1985 to 2014. He retired as a Brigadier General. Bacon served as an assistant professor at Bellevue University, where he taught courses on leadership and American values.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Bacon campaigned on his effectiveness in Congress. He said he was "honored to be ranked the most effective Republican in Congress, with 30 bills signed into law."

Bacon said the "cost of living has increased by 20% since Biden took office in January 2021. I am working to reign in spending and cut taxes for working Americans struggling with inflation."

Bacon advocated for more protection on the border. "The open southern border is unacceptable," he said. "I believe immigration is an essential part of our nation’s history and our economic growth, but it has to be done legally."

Show sources

Sources: X, "Don Bacon on X," July 13, 2024Facebook, "Don Bacon on Facebook," July 1, 2024Don Bacon 2024 campaign website, "Issues," accessed July 20, 2024; Don Bacon Official U.S. House website, "Biography," accessed July 20, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Nebraska District 2 in 2024.

Tony Vargas

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office:

Nebraska State Senate District 7 (Assumed office: 2017)

Omaha Public Schools school board

Biography: Prior to his election to the state Senate, Vargas served on the Omaha Public Schools board. He was also a public school teacher. Vargas received his bachelor's degree from the University of Rochester and a graduate degree from Pace University.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Vargas said he would codify Roe v. Wade and abortion protections. He said, "I believe the decisions a woman makes for her body, and her family are deeply personal and politicians have no place telling her what she can and cannot do."

Vargas wanted to "create better paying jobs, pass a middle class tax cut, reinstitute the expanded child tax credit, lower the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs, ensure affordable child care, and guarantee paid family leave to workers."

Regarding education, Vargas said he would "vote to expand Pell Grants, and provide additional tax credits for families who could use help in paying tuition, and work to expand access to vocational and skills training, providing pathways into good-paying trade jobs."

Show sources

Sources: Tony Vargas 2024 campaign website, "Reproductive freedom," accessed July 20, 2024Tony Vargas 2024 campaign website, "Cost of living and jobs," accessed July 20, 2024Tony Vargas 2024 campaign website, "Education," accessed July 20, 2024; Tony Vargas 2024 campaign website, "About," accessed July 20, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House Nebraska District 2 in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign advertisements

Bacon

July 18, 2024

July 11, 2024

June 5, 2024

View more ads here:

YouTube

Vargas

Ballotpedia did not come across any campaign ads for Vargas while conducting research on this election. If you are aware of any ads that should be included, please email us.

Election competitiveness

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.^[17] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."^[18] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

The links below show polls for this race aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, where available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[19]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[20]^[21]^[22]

Race ratings: Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 5, 2024	October 29, 2024	October 22, 2024	October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Lean Democratic	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill	Lean Democratic	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic	Tilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic	Lean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

Election spending

Campaign finance

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Don Bacon	Republican Party	$6,358,739	$6,174,541	$198,434	As of December 31, 2024
Tony Vargas	Democratic Party	$7,515,611	$7,487,835	$81,164	As of December 31, 2024
Dan Frei	Republican Party	$84,825	$30,650	$54,175	As of March 31, 2024
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.^[23]^[24]^[25]

If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.

By candidate	By election
Bacon Vargas	Open Secrets FEC

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Competitiveness
Presidential elections

State party control

Below was the map in use at the time of the election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Nebraska.

Nebraska U.S. House primary competitiveness, 2014-2024
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	3	3	0	11	6	1	3	66.7%	3	100.0%
2022	3	3	1	15	6	3	3	100.0%	2	100.0%
2020	3	3	0	14	6	2	2	66.7%	2	66.7%
2018	3	3	0	11	6	2	1	50.0%	1	33.3%
2016	3	3	0	6	6	0	1	16.7%	0	0.0%
2014	3	3	0	11	6	1	3	66.7%	3	100.0%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Nebraska in 2024. Information below was calculated on March 31, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Eleven candidates ran for Nebraska’s three U.S. House districts, including four Democrats and seven Republicans. That’s 3.7 candidates per district, lower than the 5.3 candidates that ran in 2022 and the 4.7 in 2020

Incumbents filed to run in every district.

Five candidates—two Democrats and three Republicans—ran for the 3rd Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a district in 2024.

Four primaries—one Democratic and three Republican—were contested in 2024. Six primaries were contested in 2022, four primaries were contested in 2020, and three were in 2018.

All incumbents faced primary challenges in 2024. The last year all incumbents faced primary challengers was in 2014.

Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all three districts, meaning no seats are guaranteed to either party.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were about the same as the national average. This made Nebraska's 2nd the 209th most Democratic district nationally.^[26]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Nebraska's 2nd based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
52.2%	45.8%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.^[27] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
49.2	48.9	R+0.3

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Nebraska, 2020

Nebraska presidential election results (1900-2020)

6 Democratic wins
25 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	R	R	D	D	D	R	R	R	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

See also: Party control of Nebraska state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Nebraska's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Nebraska
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	0	0	0
Republican	2	3	5
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	3	5

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Nebraska's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Nebraska, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Jim Pillen
Lieutenant Governor	Joe Kelly
Secretary of State	Bob Evnen
Attorney General	Mike Hilgers

State legislature

Nebraska State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	16
	Republican Party	32
	Independent	0
	Vacancies	1
	Other	0
Total		49

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

Nebraska Party Control: 1992-2024
Seven years of Democratic trifectas • Twenty-six years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
Senate	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Nebraska in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Nebraska, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
Nebraska	U.S. House	Ballot-qualified party	N/A	$1,740.00	2/15/2024 if incumbent; 3/1/2024 if non-incumbent	Source
Nebraska	U.S. House	Unaffiliated	20% of registered voters in the district who voted for president in 2020, or 2,000, whichever is less	$1,740.00	8/1/2024	Source

District history

The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.