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Nevada State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Nevada Senate Elections | |
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| Primary | June 14, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
Democrats won control of both the Nevada State Senate and the Nevada State Assembly in the 2016 general election. This broke the Republican trifecta previously held in the state. Democrats were able to flip one Senate seat, which was all that they needed to gain control of the chamber. Assembly Democrats were also able to win a majority, picking up 10 seats and moving to a 12-seat majority.
State Senator Patricia Farley said shortly after the election that she would change her party affiliation from Republican to nonpartisan with the intention of caucusing with Democrats.[1] The change in Farley's party affiliation gave the Democratic Caucus a three-seat majority.
A total of 11 seats out of the 21 seats in the Nevada State Senate were up for election in 2016. Nevada state senators serve staggered, four-year terms, such that every two years half of the Senate is up for election. Originally, 10 seats were up for election, but District 13 was added after the death of Sen. Debbie Smith (D) on February 21, 2016. The District 13 race filled the remainder of Smith's term, which would have been up for re-election in November 2018.[2]
Heading into the general election, Nevada was one of 23 Republican state government trifectas. All three areas of the Nevada state government—the state Assembly, the state Senate, and the office of the governor—were controlled by the Republican Party.
Both the state Senate and state Assembly were considered at risk of flipping to Democratic control. Democrats indeed proceeded to flip both chambers, breaking up the state's Republican trifecta. Republicans held a one-seat majority in the Senate and a seven-seat majority in the Assembly prior to the election.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the Nevada State Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These were the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the Nevada State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 14, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 18, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Nevada State Senate:
| Nevada State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 10 | 11 | |
| Republican Party | 11 | 10 | |
| Total | 21 | 21 | |
Retired incumbents
One incumbent senator did not run for re-election in 2016. The incumbent was:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Lipparelli |  Republican |
Senate District 6 |
Note: District 13 and District 15 were vacant until Julia Ratti (D) and Jesse Haw (R) were appointed to the seats on September 27, 2016. The two seats were previously held by the late Debbie Smith (D) and Greg Brower (R).
Context of the 2016 elections
The Nevada State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as a defensive target.[4] The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races for the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Assembly District 25 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch."[5]
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee (DLCC) named Senate District 15 in their "2016 Essential Races."[6][7]
As of June 10, 2016, the Senate Democratic Caucus raised $249,207, while the Republican Caucus raised $99,500.[8][9]
The $1.4 billion tax package and education initiatives passed by the Republican-led legislature in the last legislative session were among the top issues for Nevada voters.[10]
In 2016, voter turnout was expected to be high not only because of the presidential election, but also due to the open seat left by outgoing U.S. Sen. Harry Reid (D).[11]
In 2014, the Senate was identified by Ballotpedia as a battleground chamber, ultimately flipping to Republican control. Even with eight overall retirements due to term limits, the state Assembly unexpectedly showed a much larger flip, changing from a 27-15 Democratic majority to a 27-15 Republican majority. This prompted the Assembly Democratic Caucus to raise nearly $350,000 in 2015; in comparison, the Assembly Republican Caucus raised nearly $24,000. In the Senate, the Democratic Caucus raised over $270,000; the Republican Caucus raised about $84,000. Assembly Majority Leader Paul Anderson (R) told the Nevada Appeal that he anticipated being outraised due to ideological differences between incumbents and donors as well as a lack of contributions to the caucus fund by outgoing or defeated Republicans; he said that the numbers do not foreshadow the outcome of the elections.[12]
Sen. Aaron Ford (D), leader of the Senate Democratic Caucus, said on the 2014 election that "[t]he turnout in 2014 was less of a red wave and more of a blue boycott. I think there has been a lot of introspection that has taken place since then. We plan to capitalize on the enthusiasm we already see out there in the Democratic arena to ensure we regain the majority."[13] Ford went on to explain that Democrats were targeting District 6, District 15, and District 18 in the state Senate. The Republican caucus was focusing on District 5 and District 6. Sen. Ben Kieckhefer (R) believed that Republicans would be able to hold on to the state Senate. Kieckhefer said, "We need to win one of them to hold the majority and we’re pretty confident we are going to be able to do that."[13]
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified seven notable Nevada state legislative races in 2016, four of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Nevada races »
General election contests
- District 5 featured a closely divided race between Republicans and Democrats.
- ☑ Joyce Woodhouse (Inc.) (D) ☐ Carrie Buck (R) ☐ Tim Hagan (Lib.)
- A Republican representative and a Democrat faced off for an open seat left by the GOP incumbent.
- ☑ Nicole Cannizzaro (D) ☐ Victoria Seaman (R)
- A Republican, a Democrat, and a Libertarian competed for an open seat left by the GOP incumbent.
- ☐ Devon Reese (D) ☑ Heidi Gansert (R) ☐ David Colborne (Lib.)
- A Democratic candidate challenged the GOP incumbent.
- ☐ Alexander Marks (D) ☑ Scott Hammond (Inc.) (R)
2016 election competitiveness
Nevada saw more incumbents facing primary opponents.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Nevada performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Nevada State Senate, there were 10 Democratic incumbents and 11 Republican incumbents. Three incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were no incumbents facing primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the Assembly, there were 17 Democratic incumbents, 24 Republican incumbents, and one Libertarian incumbent. Three state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 11 incumbents that faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Nevada can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Nevada Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Patricia Spearman: 33,688 (I)  |
Arsen Ter-Petrosyan: 17,800 | |
| 3 | Richard "Tick" Segerblom: 21,195 (I) |
Dennis Palmerston: 11,057 | Jonathan Friedrich: 2,889 (L) |
| 4 | Kelvin Atkinson: 29,912 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Joyce Woodhouse: 26,208 (I) |
Carrie Buck: 25,739 | Tim Hagan: 2,784 (L) |
| 6 | Nicole Cannizzaro: 28,733 |
Victoria Seaman: 27,697 | |
| 7 | David Parks: 28,431 (I) |
No candidate | Kimberly Schjang: 12,454 (L) |
| 11 | Aaron Ford: 22,439 (I) |
Jon Frazier: 14,221 | Lesley Chan: 2,229 (L) |
| 13 | Julia Ratti: 27,280 (I) |
Kent Bailey: 15,811 | Brandon Jacobs: 2,406 (L) |
| 15 | Devon Reese: 26,773 | Heidi Gansert: 33,822 |
David Colborne: 3,266 (L) |
| 18 | Alexander Marks: 26,864 | Scott Hammond: 34,805 (I) |
|
| 19 | No candidate | Peter Goicoechea: 36,877 (I) |
Janine Hansen: 13,664 (Independent American) |
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
| 2016 Nevada Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Patricia Spearman (I) |
Arsen Ter-Petrosyan |
|
| 3 | Richard "Tick" Segerblom (I) |
Dennis Palmerston |
Jonathan Friedrich (L)
|
| 4 | Kelvin Atkinson (I): 3,926 Stephen Harvey Munford: 1,966 |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Joyce Woodhouse (I): 4,145 Nicholas Lash: 704 |
Carrie Buck |
Tim Hagan (L)
|
| 6 | Nicole Cannizzaro |
Erv Nelson: 2,308 Victoria Seaman: 3,894 |
|
| 7 | David Parks (I): 3,222 Anthony Wernicke: 950 |
No candidate | Kimberly Schjang (L)
|
| 11 | Aaron Ford (I) |
Jon Frazier |
Lesley Chan (L)
|
| 13[14] | Julia Ratti |
Kent Bailey: 2,499 Samantha Brockelsby: 1,074 |
Brandon Jacobs (L)
|
| 15 | Devon Reese |
Heidi Gansert: 5,105 Eugene Hoover: 3,866 |
David Colborne (L)
|
| 18 | Alexander Marks |
Scott Hammond (I) |
|
| 19 | No candidate | Peter Goicoechea (I) |
Janine Hansen (Independent American)
|
Notes:
| |||
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Nevada State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 11 races in the Nevada State Senate in 2016, 10 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 21.8 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[15]
| Republican candidates in the Nevada State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won three races. In the three races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 23.3 percent. Democrats won eight races in 2016. In the seven races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 21.1 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Two of the 10 contested races in 2016—20 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Democrats won both races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Nevada State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 5 D 0.9 percent District 6 D 1.8 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Nevada State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Nine incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the eight winning Nevada State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 25.6 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Nevada State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. Two Republican incumbents won re-election. In the two races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 29.4 percent. Seven Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the six races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 24.3 percent. |
Nevada State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[16] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[16] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 8 21.1 percent 7 24.3 percent 1 1 12.5 percent Republican 3 23.3 percent 2 29.4 percent 0 0 0.0 percent Total 11 21.8 percent 9 25.6 percent 1 1 9.1 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Nevada State Senate districts in 2016.
| Nevada State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | 30.9 percent |
| District 3 | D | 28.9 percent |
| District 4 | D | Unopposed |
| District 5 | D | 0.9 percent |
| District 6 | D | 1.8 percent |
| District 7 | D | 39.1 percent |
| District 11 | D | 21.1 percent |
| District 13 | D | 25.2 percent |
| District 15 | R | 11.0 percent |
| District 18 | R | 12.9 percent |
| District 19 | R | 45.9 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Nevada elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Nevada in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 4, 2016 | Ballot access | Judicial candidate filing period opens | |
| January 15, 2016 | Ballot access | Judicial candidate filing period closes | |
| March 7, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing period opens | |
| March 18, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing period closes | |
| March 28, 2016 | Campaign finance | Candidate financial disclosure statement due | |
| May 24, 2016 | Campaign finance | Contributions and expenses report #1 due | |
| June 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Contributions and expenses report #2 due | |
| June 14, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| October 18, 2016 | Campaign finance | Contributions and expenses report #3 due | |
| November 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Contributions and expenses report #4 due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 15, 2017 | Campaign finance | Annual contributions and expenses report due; Contributions and expenses report #5 due; annual financial disclosure statement due | |
| Source: Nevada Secretary of State, "Important 2016 Candidate Dates," accessed July 17, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In three (27.27 percent) of the 11 seats up for election, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of two Democrats and one Republican were guaranteed election in November barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 8 (72.7 percent) of the 11 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
A total of three incumbents faced primary competition on June 14. One incumbent did not seek re-election, two seats were vacant, and another five incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
One incumbent senator, Mark Lipparelli (R) of District 6, did not run for re-election, and eight other incumbents ran for re-election. Two members were appointed to the chamber on September 27, 2016, to fill two vacancies.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
Nevada voters approved Question 9A in 1996. Question 9A was a second vote on a term limits amendment first approved in 1994. Alone among the states with ballot initiatives, Nevada voters must approve a proposed constitutional amendment twice before it goes into the Nevada Constitution. The 1994 and 1996 votes cumulatively led to Paragraph 2 of Section 4 of Article 4 of the Nevada Constitution, which says, "No person may be elected or appointed as a Senator who has served in that Office, or at the expiration of his current term if he is so serving will have served, 12 years or more, from any district of this State."
Altogether, there are 21 Nevada State Senators. In the 2016 state senate elections, there were no senators who were termed out.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Nevada's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Nevada Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 18.9% | 30.2% | 64.2% | 37.8 | 13 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Nevada in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[17]
| Nevada State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 33 | $7,066,607 |
| 2012 | 36 | $6,153,115 |
| 2010 | 44 | $4,367,615 |
| 2008 | 32 | $4,817,421 |
| 2006 | 23 | $4,801,522 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Nevada, at $214,140 per candidate, is ranked ten of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[17][18]
Qualifications
To be eligible to serve in the Nevada State Senate, a candidate must be:[19]
- A U.S. citizen;
- At least 21 years old by the filing deadline;
- A one-year resident of Nevada before the election;
- A resident for at least 30 days of the electing Senate district at the filing deadline time; and
- A qualified voter. A qualified voter is someone who is:
- A U.S. citizen;
- A resident of Nevada for at least 6 months prior to the next election;
- A resident in the district or county for at least 30 days; and
- At least 18 years old by the next election.
See also
External links
- Nevada Secretary of State - Primary candidate list
- Clark County - Primary candidate list
- Washoe County - Primary candidate list
- Nevada Secretary of State - Certified general election candidate list
Footnotes
- ↑ Las Vegas Sun, "State Sen. Patricia Farley to caucus with Democrats," November 14, 2016
- ↑ kunr.org, "Sparks Councilwoman Will Run For Debbie Smith's Vacant Seat," accessed March 18, 2016
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedrslc - ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Debuts Third Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch,'" accessed October 24, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC Expands List of 2016 Essential Races," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, "DLCC ANNOUNCES 2016 ESSENTIAL RACES," accessed October 7, 2016
- ↑ Nevada Secretary of State, "Campaign finance report for Senate Democrats," accessed September 12, 2016
- ↑ Nevada Secretary of State, "Campaign finance report for Senate Republicans," accessed September 12, 2016
- ↑ Las Vegas Sun, "Fight for majority in Nevada Legislature coming into focus," accessed September 12, 2016
- ↑ Governing, "The 8 States to Watch in 2016," accessed January 16, 2016
- ↑ Nevada Appeal, "Democrats rev up fundraising in fight to control Nevada Legislature," January 21, 2016
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Las Vegas Review Journal, "Democrats could retake Nevada Senate, Assembly this year," accessed September 12, 2016
- ↑ Cite error: Invalid
<ref>tag; no text was provided for refs namedd13 - ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 17.0 17.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Nevada," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Nevada Secretary of State, "Election Information Guide 2013-2014," accessed March 6, 2014
