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New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Annie Kuster
Annie Kuster (D) Candidate Connection
 
55.5
 
155,358
Image of Steve Negron
Steve Negron (R)
 
42.2
 
117,990
Image of Justin O'Donnell
Justin O'Donnell (L)
 
2.2
 
6,206
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
151

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 279,705
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.


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New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 15, 2018
Primary: September 11, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Ann McLane Kuster (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: Varies by municipality
Voting in New Hampshire
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+2
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District
1st • 2nd
New Hampshire elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of New Hampshire, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Annie Kuster (D), who was first elected in 2012.

New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District encompasses most of the state, including the northern, southern and western reaches of the state.It includes all of Chesire, Coos, and Sullivan counties along with areas of Belknap, Grafton, Hillsborough, Merrimack and Rockingham counties.[1]




Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

Incumbent Annie Kuster defeated Steve Negron and Justin O'Donnell in the general election for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Annie Kuster
Annie Kuster (D) Candidate Connection
 
55.5
 
155,358
Image of Steve Negron
Steve Negron (R)
 
42.2
 
117,990
Image of Justin O'Donnell
Justin O'Donnell (L)
 
2.2
 
6,206
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
151

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 279,705
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

Incumbent Annie Kuster advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on September 11, 2018.

Candidate
✔
Image of Annie Kuster
Annie Kuster Candidate Connection

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on September 11, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Steve Negron
Steve Negron
 
26.0
 
11,166
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Stewart Levenson
 
25.3
 
10,858
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Lynne Blankenbeker
 
22.9
 
9,836
Image of Bob Burns
Bob Burns
 
15.9
 
6,811
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Brian Belanger
 
5.6
 
2,388
Image of Jay Mercer
Jay Mercer
 
2.9
 
1,232
Image of Gerard Beloin
Gerard Beloin
 
1.5
 
623

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 42,914
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2

Justin O'Donnell defeated Tom Alciere in the Libertarian primary for U.S. House New Hampshire District 2 on September 11, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Justin O'Donnell
Justin O'Donnell
 
74.6
 
428
Image of Tom Alciere
Tom Alciere Candidate Connection
 
25.4
 
146

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 574
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage point more Democratic than the national average. This made New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District the 188th most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.10. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.10 points toward that party.[3]

Race background

New Hampshire's 2nd District was listed as one of the NRCC's initial targets in 2018.[4]

Incumbent Annie Kuster was included as one of the initial members of the DCCC's Frontline Program in 2018.[5]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Annie Kuster Democratic Party $3,372,279 $3,357,381 $1,083,326 As of December 31, 2018
Steve Negron Republican Party $461,905 $454,910 $6,995 As of December 31, 2018
Justin O'Donnell Libertarian Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Annie Kuster (D) won re-election, defeating Jim Lawrence (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Lawrence defeated Eric Estevez, Jack Flanagan, Walter Kelly, Andy Martin, Jay Mercer, and Casey Newell in the Republican primary on September 13, 2016.[6][7]

U.S. House, New Hampshire District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnnie Kuster Incumbent 49.8% 174,371
     Republican Jim Lawrence 45.3% 158,825
     Independent John Babiarz 4.9% 17,076
Total Votes 350,272
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State


U.S. House, New Hampshire District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJim Lawrence 39.9% 17,180
Jack Flanagan 28% 12,046
Walter Kelly 10% 4,287
Andy Martin 7.3% 3,145
Eric Estevez 5.7% 2,443
Jay Mercer 4.9% 2,113
Casey Newell 4.3% 1,839
Total Votes 43,053
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

2014

See also: New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 2nd Congressional District of New Hampshire held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Annie Kuster (D) defeated Marilinda Garcia (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, New Hampshire District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnnie Kuster Incumbent 54.9% 130,700
     Republican Marilinda Garcia 44.9% 106,871
     N/A Scatter 0.3% 613
Total Votes 238,184
Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 10 New Hampshire counties—30 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Coos County, New Hampshire 8.89% 17.54% 18.19%
Hillsborough County, New Hampshire 0.20% 1.12% 3.73%
Sullivan County, New Hampshire 2.58% 13.27% 17.93%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Hampshire with 46.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 46.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1789 and 2016, New Hampshire voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 31 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Hampshire voted Democratic with the exception of the 2000 presidential election.[8]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in New Hampshire. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[9][10]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 17.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 10 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 14.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 12 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 5.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 14 out of 24 state Senate districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 9.6 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in New Hampshire. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[11][12]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 145 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 17.8 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 101 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 17.1 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 59 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 9.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 103 out of 204 state House districts in New Hampshire with an average margin of victory of 12.9 points.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in New Hampshire heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the New Hampshire General Court. They had a 212-167 majority in the state House and a 14-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • New Hampshire was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: New Hampshire elections, 2018

New Hampshire held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for New Hampshire
 New HampshireU.S.
Total population:1,330,111316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):8,9533,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:93.7%73.6%
Black/African American:1.3%12.6%
Asian:2.4%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:1.8%3%
Hispanic/Latino:3.2%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:92.3%86.7%
College graduation rate:34.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$66,779$53,889
Persons below poverty level:9.9%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Hampshire.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, New Hampshire's three largest cities were Manchester (pop. est. 111,196), Nashua (pop. est. 88,341), and Concord (pop. est. 43,019).[13][14]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New Hampshire from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the New Hampshire State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New Hampshire every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), New Hampshire 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.6% Republican Party Donald Trump 47.2% 0.4%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 46.4% 5.6%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 54.4% Republican Party John McCain 44.7% 9.7%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 50.2% Republican Party George W. Bush 48.9% 1.3%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.1% Democratic Party Al Gore 46.9% 1.2%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New Hampshire from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), New Hampshire 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Maggie Hassan 48.0% Republican Party Kelly Ayotte 47.8% 0.2%
2014 Democratic Party Jeanne Shaheen 51.5% Republican Party Scott Brown 48.2% 3.3%
2010 Republican Party Kelly Ayotte 60.2% Democratic Party Paul Hodes 36.7% 23.5%
2008 Democratic Party Jeanne Shaheen 51.6% Republican Party John E. Sununu 45.3% 6.3%
2004 Republican Party Judd Gregg 66.2% Democratic Party Doris Haddock 33.7% 32.5%
2002 Republican Party John E. Sununu 50.8% Democratic Party Jeanne Shaheen 46.4% 4.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every two years in New Hampshire.

Election results (Governor), New Hampshire 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Chris Sununu 48.8% Democratic Party Colin Van Ostern 46.6% 2.2%
2014 Democratic Party Maggie Hassan 52.5% Republican Party Walter Havenstein 47.3% 5.2%
2012 Democratic Party Maggie Hassan 54.6% Republican Party Ovide Lamontagne 42.5% 12.1%
2010 Democratic Party John Lynch 52.6% Republican Party John Stephen 45.1% 7.5%
2008 Democratic Party John Lynch 70.1% Republican Party Joseph Kenney 27.6% 42.5%
2006 Democratic Party John Lynch 74.0% Republican Party Jim Coburn 25.8% 48.2%
2004 Democratic Party John Lynch 51.0% Republican Party Craig Benson 48.9% 2.1%
2002 Republican Party Craig Benson 58.7% Democratic Party Mark Fernald 38.2% 20.5%
2000 Democratic Party Jeanne Shaheen 48.8% Republican Party Gordon Humphrey 43.8% 5.0%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New Hampshire in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, New Hampshire 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2014 Republican Party 1 50.0% Democratic Party 1 50.0% Even
2012 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2010 Republican Party 2 100.0% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+2
2008 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2006 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 2 100.0% D+2
2004 Republican Party 2 100.0% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+2
2002 Republican Party 2 100.0% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+2
2000 Republican Party 2 100.0% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

New Hampshire Party Control: 1992-2025
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R D D D D D D R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R
Senate R R R R R R R D S R R R R R R D D D D R R R R R R R R D D R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D R R D D R R R R D D R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ New Hampshire Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Politico, "House Republicans name Democratic targets for 2018," February 8, 2017
  5. ↑ Roll Call, "Democrats Identify Vulnerable Members for 2018," March 6, 2017
  6. ↑ New Hampshire Secretary of State, "State Primary - September 13, 2016," accessed June 13, 2016
  7. ↑ Politico, "New Hampshire House Primary Results," September 13, 2016
  8. ↑ 270towin.com, "New Hampshire," accessed June 1, 2017
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  10. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  11. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  12. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  13. ↑ New Hampshire Demographics, "New Hampshire Cities by Population," accessed September 5, 2018
  14. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts New Hampshire," accessed September 5, 2018
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New Hampshire's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Maggie Hassan (D)
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
Representatives
District 1
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Democratic Party (4)

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