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New Jersey's 11th Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Democratic primary)

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New Jersey's 11th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Rodney Frelinghuysen (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in New Jersey
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+3
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Lean Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
New Jersey's 11th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th
New Jersey elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Five Democratic candidates were seeking the nomination for a seat in the U.S. House that was considered a potential Democratic pickup in November. Mikie Sherrill (D) won the nomination with 77.5 percent of the vote to Tamara Harris' (D) 14.5 percent.

No Democratic candidate has won election to represent the 11th district since 1982. Two factors, however, illustrated why the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) included the seat in its first round of targets for 2018.[1]. Donald Trump (R) carried the district by less than a one percent margin in 2016 and incumbent Rodney Frelinghuysen (R), who held the seat since 1995, retired, leaving the seat open as a potential pickup.

The DCCC was backing former federal prosecutor Mikie Sherrill (D), who was added to the committee's Red to Blue program in January.[2] Candidates in the Red to Blue program receive financial and organizational support from the committee. Sherrill was casting her run as a challenge to President Trump (R), emphasizing commonalities between Frelinghuysen's and Trump's policy stances.[3]

Tamara Harris (D) was the only other candidate to raise more than $500,000 before the April 2018 campaign finance reports were published. She was backed by the Congressional Black Caucus PAC and by the Social Workers PAC, and often emphasized her background in her run. Her campaign biography touted her business experience and social service work as allowing her to bring a "fresh and unique perspective to the way we approach important policy matters."[4]




New Jersey voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionJune 5, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineApril 2, 2018
Registration deadlineMay 15, 2018
Absentee application deadlineMay 29, 2018
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeSemi-closed
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
April 2, 2018
June 5, 2018
November 6, 2018

Candidates and election results

Mikie Sherrill defeated Tamara Harris, Mark Washburne, Alison Heslin, and Mitchell Cobert in the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 11 on June 5, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 11

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Mikie Sherrill
Mikie Sherrill
 
77.4
 
35,338
Image of Tamara Harris
Tamara Harris
 
14.5
 
6,615
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Mark Washburne
 
3.4
 
1,538
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Alison Heslin
 
2.7
 
1,253
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Mitchell Cobert
 
1.9
 
885

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 45,629
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+3, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 3 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New Jersey's 11th Congressional District the 209th most Republican nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.07. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.07 points toward that party.[6]

Endorsements

Democratic candidate endorsements
Endorsement Date Cobert Harris Heslin Sherrill Washburne
National figures
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D)[7] April 3, 2018 ✔
State figures
State Sen. and former Gov. Richard Codey (D)[8] December 5, 2017 ✔
Assemblywoman Mila Jasey (D)[8] December 5, 2017 ✔
Local figures
Former Morristown Councilman Dick Tighe[9] May 15, 2018 ✔
Democratic Party of Essex County Chairman LeRoy Jones[10] January 17, 2018 ✔
Democratic Party of Morris County Chairman Chip Robinson[10] January 17, 2018 ✔
Democratic Party of Sussex County Chairman Leslie Huhn[10] January 17, 2018 ✔
Democratic Party of Passaic County Chairman John Currie[10] January 17, 2018 ✔
Parsippany Mayor Michael Soriano (D)[11] December 12, 2017 ✔
Parsippany Councilwoman Janice McCarthy[11] December 12, 2017 ✔
Parsippany Councilwoman Emily Peterson[11] December 12, 2017 ✔
Woodland Park Mayor Keith Kazmark (D)[12] October 4, 2017 ✔
Organizations
Social Workers PAC[13] May 23, 2018 ✔
The Observer-Tribune[14] May 23, 2018 ✔
Northeast Regional Council of Carpenters[15] May 12, 2018 ✔
Congressional Black Caucus Political Action Committee[16] May 11, 2018 ✔
Chatham Moms for Change[17] April 25, 2018 ✔
Democratic Party of Sussex County[18] March 27, 2018 ✔
End Citizens United[19] November 9, 2017 ✔

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly April 2018 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of March 31, 2018.[20]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: New Jersey's 11th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Lean Democratic Lean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Lean Democratic Tilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Democratic Lean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in New Jersey heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 14 state executive positions. The other nine positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
  • The governor of New Jersey was Democrat Phil Murphy.

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature. They had a 54-26 majority in the state Assembly and a 25-15 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • New Jersey was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democratic Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state Assembly.

2018 elections

See also: New Jersey elections, 2018

New Jersey held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for New Jersey
 New JerseyU.S.
Total population:8,935,421316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):7,3543,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:68.3%73.6%
Black/African American:13.5%12.6%
Asian:9%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.5%3%
Hispanic/Latino:19%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:88.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:36.8%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$72,093$53,889
Persons below poverty level:12.7%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Jersey.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, New Jersey had a population of approximately 9 million people, and its three largest cities were New Jersey (pop. est. 283,000), Jersey City (pop. est. 265,000), and Paterson (pop. est. 147,000).[21][22]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New Jersey from 2000 to 2016.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New Jersey every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), New Jersey 2000-2016[23]
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 55.5% Republican Party Donald Trump 41.4% 14.1%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 58.4% Republican Party Mitt Romney 40.6% 17.8%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.2% Republican Party John McCain 41.7% 15.5%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 52.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 46.2% 6.7%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 56.1% Republican Party George W. Bush 40.3% 15.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New Jersey from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), New Jersey 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014[24] Democratic Party Cory Booker 55.8% Republican Party Jeff Bell 42.3% 13.5%
2012[25] Democratic Party Bob Menendez 58.9% Republican Party Joseph Kyrillos 39.4% 19.5%
2008[26] Democratic Party Frank Lautenberg 56.0% Republican Party Dick Zimmer 42.0% 14.0%
2006[27] Democratic Party Bob Menendez 53.3% Republican Party Thomas Kean Jr. 44.3% 9.0%
2002[28] Democratic Party Frank Lautenberg 53.9% Republican Party Doug Forrester 44.0% 9.9%
2000[29] Democratic Party Jon Corzine 50.1% Republican Party Bob Franks 47.1% 3.0%

Gubernatorial elections, 2001-2017

This chart shows the results of the five gubernatorial elections held between 2001 and 2017. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in New Jersey, and, unlike most states, they take place in odd years.

Election results (Governor), New Jersey 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2017[30] Democratic Party Phil Murphy 56.0% Republican Party Kim Guadagno 41.9% 14.1%
2013[31] Republican Party Chris Christie 60.3% Democratic Party Barbara Buono 38.2% 22.1%
2009[32] Republican Party Chris Christie 48.5% Democratic Party Jon Corzine 44.9% 3.6%
2005[33] Democratic Party Jon Corzine 53.5% Republican Party Doug Forrester 43.0% 10.5%
2001[34] Democratic Party Jim McGreevey 56.4% Republican Party Bret Schundler 41.7% 14.7%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New Jersey in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, New Jersey 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016[35] Republican Party 5 41.7% Democratic Party 7 58.3% D+2
2014[24] Republican Party 6 50.0% Democratic Party 6 50.0% Even
2012[25] Republican Party 6 50.0% Democratic Party 6 50.0% Even
2010[36] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2008[26] Republican Party 5 38.5% Democratic Party 8 61.5% D+3
2006[27] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2004[37] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2002[28] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2000[29] Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2018

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

New Jersey Party Control: 1992-2025
Fourteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eight years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R S S D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Assembly R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


,

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  2. ↑ Observer, "National Democrats Make Frelinghuysen a Top Target Ahead of 2018 Midterms," January 10, 2018
  3. ↑ Mikie Sherrill for Congress, "Why I'm Running," accessed May 24, 2018
  4. ↑ Tamara Harris for Congress, "Meet Tamara," accessed May 24, 2018
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Observer, "Joe Biden Endorses Mikie Sherrill for Congress," April 3, 2018
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 Daily Record, "Codey, Dems gather to endorse Mikie Sherrill in effort to unseat Frelinghuysen," December 5, 2017
  9. ↑ New Jersey Globe, "Ex-Morristown official backs Cobert for Congress," May 15, 2018
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 Tap into Morristown "Essex, Passaic, Morris, and Sussex County Democrats Endorse Mikie Sherrill for NJ 11th Congressional District," January 17, 2018
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 11.2 Parsippany Focus, "Team Soriano Endorses Mikie Sherrill," December 12, 2017
  12. ↑ Tap into Randolph, "Woodland Park Mayor Decides Not To Run For Congress, Endorses Mikie Sherrill for NJ 11th," October 4, 2017
  13. ↑ New Jersey Globe, "Social Workers PAC endorses Harris," May 23, 2018
  14. ↑ Observer-Tribune, "EDITORIAL: Hewitt and Sherrill for 11th District Congress," May 23, 2018
  15. ↑ Parsippany Focus, "Northeast Regional Council of Carpenters Endorses Mikie Sherrill for U.S. Congress," May 12, 2018
  16. ↑ Parsippany Focus, "Candidate Tamara Harris Receives National Endorsement of Congressional Black Caucus," May 11, 2018
  17. ↑ New Jersey Globe, "Chatham group backs Sherrill," April 25, 2018
  18. ↑ New Jersey Herald, "Sussex County Dems endorse Sherrill for 11th," March 27, 2018
  19. ↑ Montclair Patch, "Mikie Sherrill vs 'Big Money Politics': PAC Endorses Democrat," November 9, 2017
  20. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "New Jersey - House District 11, Compare candidate financial totals," accessed May 24, 2018
  21. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts New Jersey," March 27, 2018
  22. ↑ World Population Review, "Population of Cities in New Jersey (2018)," accessed March 27, 2018
  23. ↑ US Election Atlas, "United States Presidential Election Results," accessed March 27, 2018
  24. ↑ 24.0 24.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2014 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  25. ↑ 25.0 25.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2012 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  26. ↑ 26.0 26.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2008 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2006 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  28. ↑ 28.0 28.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2002 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  29. ↑ 29.0 29.1 New Jersey Secretary of State, "2000 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  30. ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2017 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  31. ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2013 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  32. ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2009 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  33. ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2005 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  34. ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2001 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  35. ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2016 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  36. ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2010 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018
  37. ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "2004 Election Information Archive," accessed March 27, 2018


New Jersey's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Cory Booker (D)
Andrew Kim (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
Democratic Party (11)
Republican Party (3)


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