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New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2012
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November 6, 2012 |
June 5, 2012 |
Jon Runyan  |
Jon Runyan |
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The 3rd Congressional District of New Jersey held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Incumbent Jon Runyan won the election.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: New Jersey had a mostly closed primary system, in which registered Republicans and Democrats could only vote in their own party's primary, but voters who had never voted in a primary before could choose either party.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by March 11, 2012. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 16, 2012.[2]
- See also: New Jersey elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Jon Runyan (R), who was first elected to the House in 2010.
This was the first election using district maps based on data from the 2010 Census. New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District was located in the south-central portion of the state and included most of Burlington County and portions of Ocean County.[3]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. Click here for more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan. Please contact us about errors in this list.
General election candidates
Shelley Adler- Jon Runyan
Christopher Dennick, Jr.- Robert Edward Forchion
- Frederick John Lavergne
- Robert Shapiro
- Robert Witterschein
June 5, 2012, primary results
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Election results
General Election
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Shelley Adler | 44.9% | 145,506 | |
| Republican | Jon Runyan Incumbent |
53.7% | 174,253 | |
| No Slogan | Christopher Dennick, Jr. | 0.1% | 280 | |
| Legalize Marijuana | Robert Edward Forchion | 0.6% | 1,965 | |
| No Slogan | Frederick John Lavergne | 0.2% | 770 | |
| Bob's for Jobs | Robert Shapiro | 0.3% | 1,104 | |
| None of Them | Robert Witterschein | 0.2% | 530 | |
| Total Votes | 324,408 | |||
| Source: New Jersey Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Race background
New Jersey's 3rd was considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Jon Runyan was challenged by Shelley Adler (D), the widow of the man he ousted from office in 2010. The district had become slightly more Democratic since 2010, and Adler was thought to have a fund-raising advantage.[7] When drafting the new district map, the Republicans were able to cut the town of Cherry Hill out of the 3rd District and replace it with Brick Township, where the ratio of registered Democrats to Republicans was much smaller. Analysis of the registered voters in the newly formed district suggested an advantage for Runyan; while the number of registered Democrats exceeded the number of Republicans, the independent voters in the district leaned to the Republican Party.[8]
New Jersey's 3rd District had been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization had specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[9]
Incumbent Jon Runyan was a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on the offense and increase their majority in 2012.[10]
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in New Jersey
New Jersey lost a congressional seat following the results of the 2010 Census, bringing its number of representatives down to 12. A new map was approved on December 23, 2011.
The 3rd District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district was composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[11][12]
- 1 percent from the 2nd Congressional District
- 78 percent from the 3rd Congressional District
- 21 percent from the 4th Congressional District
Registration statistics
As of October 25, 2012, District 3 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the New Jersey Secretary of State:
| New Jersey Congressional District 3[13] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 3 | 476,678 | 127,799 | 118,936 | 229,943 | Democratic | 7.46% | -6.27% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. New Jersey's 3rd District became more Republican because of redistricting.[14]
- 2012: 48D / 52R
- 2010: 49D / 51R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measured each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. New Jersey's 3rd Congressional District had a PVI of R+2, which was the 219th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 52-48 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 53-47 percent over John Kerry (D).[15]
Polls
| Runyan vs. Adler | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Shelley Adler | Jon Runyan | Other | Undecided | Sample size | ||||||||||||||
| Richard Stockton College (October 4, 2012) | 39% | 49% | 3% | 8% | 614 | ||||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Campaign donors
Jon Runyan
| Jon Runyan Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[16] | April 15 | $514,924.71 | $295,824.19 | $(75,528.81) | $735,220.09 | ||||
| Pre-primary[17] | May 24 | $735,220.09 | $73,583.19 | $(50,642.33) | $758,160.95 | ||||
| July Quarterly[18] | July 15 | $758,160.95 | $227,046.00 | $(82,586.76) | $902,620.19 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $596,453.38 | $(208,757.9) | ||||||||
Shelley Adler
| Shelley Adler Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[19] | April 15 | $0.00 | $310,927.50 | $(20,252.74) | $290,674.76 | ||||
| Pre-primary[20] | May 24 | $290,674.76 | $98,993.23 | $(85,481.09) | $304,186.90 | ||||
| July Quarterly[21] | July 15 | $304,186.90 | $223,088.18 | $(34,428.98) | $492,846.10 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $633,008.91 | $(140,162.81) | ||||||||
District history
| Candidate ballot access |
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| Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. |
2010
On November 2, 2010, Jon Runyan was elected to the United States House. He defeated incumbent John H. Adler (D), Peter DeStefano (New Jersey Tea Party), Russ Conger (Libertarian), and Lawrence J. Donahue (Your Country Again).[22]
| United States House, New Jersey General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Jon Runyan |
50% | 110,215 | |
| Democratic | John H. Adler Incumbent | 47.3% | 104,252 | |
| New Jersey Tea Party | Peter DeStefano | 1.5% | 3,284 | |
| Libertarian | Russ Conger | 0.7% | 1,445 | |
| Your Country Again | Lawrence J. Donahue | 0.5% | 1,113 | |
| Total Votes | 220,309 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in New Jersey, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
- United States Senate elections in New Jersey, 2012
Footnotes
- ↑ Politico, "2012 House Race Results," accessed November 6, 2012
- ↑ New Jersey Department of State, "Voter Registration Information," accessed June 30, 2012
- ↑ New Jersey Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed September 25, 2012
- ↑ Brick Patch "Shelley Adler, Widow of Late John Adler, To Seek 3rd District Congressional Seat," January 30, 2012
- ↑ PhillyBurbs.com "New congressional map favors Runyan," December 24, 2011
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 NJ.gov "Candidate List" accessed September 19, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 10, 2012
- ↑ Politicker NJ "CD3"
- ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
- ↑ NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
- ↑ Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "New Jersey's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
- ↑ Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
- ↑ New Jersey Secretary of State, "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," May 22, 2012
- ↑ FairVote, "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in New Jersey," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Runyan April Quarterly," accessed September 26, 2012
- ↑ http://images.nictusa.com/pdf/914/12951890914/12951890914.pdf#navpanes=0 Federal Election Commission, "Runyan Pre-primary," accessed September 26, 2012]
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Runyan July Quarterly," accessed September 26, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Adler April Quarterly," accessed September 26, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Adler Pre-primary," accessed September 26, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Adler July Quarterly," accessed September 26, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
