New Jersey's 4th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House New Jersey District 4

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Chris Smith (R)	55.4	163,065
		Josh Welle (D)	43.1	126,766
		Michael Rufo (L)	0.5	1,387
		Edward Stackhouse Jr. (Ed the Barber Party)	0.4	1,064
		Brian Reynolds (Check This Column Party)	0.3	851
		Felicia Stoler (The Inclusion Candidate Party)	0.3	844
	Submit photo	Allen Yusufov (Time for Change Party)	0.1	371

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 294,348
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Elections in New Jersey, 2018

• General election: Nov. 6
• Voter registration deadline: Oct. 16
• Early voting: Sept. 22 - Nov. 5
• Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6

• Online registration: No
• Same-day registration: No
• Voter ID: No
• Poll times: 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

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On the ballot: U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Special state legislative • State ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • Democratic primaries • Republican primaries

2020 → ← 2016
New Jersey's 4th Congressional District
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Chris Smith (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voting in New Jersey
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+8 Cook Political Report: Solid Republican Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
New Jersey's 4th Congressional District U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th New Jersey elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 4th Congressional District of New Jersey, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Chris Smith (R), who was first elected in 1980.

New Jersey's 4th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes most of Monmouth County and parts of Mercer and Ocean counties.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New Jersey District 4

The following candidates ran in the general election for U.S. House New Jersey District 4 on November 6, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Chris Smith (R)	55.4	163,065
		Josh Welle (D)	43.1	126,766
		Michael Rufo (L)	0.5	1,387
		Edward Stackhouse Jr. (Ed the Barber Party)	0.4	1,064
		Brian Reynolds (Check This Column Party)	0.3	851
		Felicia Stoler (The Inclusion Candidate Party)	0.3	844
	Submit photo	Allen Yusufov (Time for Change Party)	0.1	371

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 294,348
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 4

Josh Welle defeated Jim Keady in the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 4 on June 5, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Josh Welle	57.1	16,905
		Jim Keady	42.9	12,682

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	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 29,587
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Mike Keeling (D)

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 4

Incumbent Chris Smith advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New Jersey District 4 on June 5, 2018.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Chris Smith	100.0	25,930

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	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.	Total votes: 25,930
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+8, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New Jersey's 4th Congressional District the 166th most Republican nationally.

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Chris Smith	Republican Party	$1,320,633	$1,550,010	$43,011	As of December 31, 2018
Josh Welle	Democratic Party	$1,856,255	$1,851,244	$5,012	As of December 31, 2018
Brian Reynolds	Check This Column Party	$4,357	$3,560	$-270	As of November 26, 2018
Edward Stackhouse Jr.	Ed the Barber Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Michael Rufo	Libertarian Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Felicia Stoler	The Inclusion Candidate Party	$24,317	$23,097	$1,220	As of December 31, 2018
Allen Yusufov	Time for Change Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." ** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election. *** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

District history

2016

See also: New Jersey's 4th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Chris Smith (R) defeated Lorna Phillipson (D), Jeremy Marcus (L), and Hank Schroeder (Economic Growth) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Smith defeated Bruce MacDonald in the Republican primary on June 7, 2016. Smith won re-election in the November 8 election.

U.S. House, New Jersey District 4 General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Chris Smith Incumbent	63.7%	211,992
	Democratic	Lorna Phillipson	33.5%	111,532
	Economic Growth	Hank Schroeder	1.8%	5,840
	Libertarian	Jeremy Marcus	1%	3,320
Total Votes				332,684
Source: New Jersey Division of Elections

U.S. House, New Jersey District 4 Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Chris Smith Incumbent	92%	41,789
Bruce MacDonald	8%	3,645
Total Votes		45,434
Source: New Jersey Division of Elections

2014

See also: New Jersey's 4th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 4th Congressional District of New Jersey held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Chris Smith (R) defeated Ruben Scolavino (D) and Scott Neuman (Democratic-Republican) in the general election.

U.S. House, New Jersey District 4 General Election, 2014

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Chris Smith Incumbent	68%	118,826
	Democratic	Ruben Scolavino	31.1%	54,415
	Democratic-Republican	Scott Neuman	0.9%	1,608
Total Votes				174,849
Source: New Jersey Division of Elections

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Two of 21 New Jersey counties—9.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County	Trump margin of victory in 2016	Obama margin of victory in 2012	Obama margin of victory in 2008
Gloucester County, New Jersey	0.48%	10.77%	12.16%
Salem County, New Jersey	15.00%	1.31%	3.92%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Jersey with 55.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 41.4 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, New Jersey voted Democratic 46.67 percent of the time and Republican 53.33 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Jersey voted Democratic all five times.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in New Jersey heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

• Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in New Jersey.
• Democrats held seven of 12 U.S. House seats in New Jersey, and Republicans held five.

State executives

• As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 14 state executive positions. The other nine positions were held by nonpartisan officials.
• The governor of New Jersey was Democrat Phil Murphy.

State legislature

• Democrats controlled both chambers of the New Jersey State Legislature. They had a 54-26 majority in the state Assembly and a 25-15 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

• New Jersey was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democratic Party held the governorship, a majority in the state Senate, and a majority in the state Assembly.

2018 elections

See also: New Jersey elections, 2018

New Jersey held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• The Class 1 U.S. Senate seat held by Bob Menendez (D)
• All 12 U.S. House seats
• Local judicial offices
• Local school boards
• Municipal elections in Newark and Essex County

Demographics

Demographic data for New Jersey
	New Jersey	U.S.
Total population:	8,935,421	316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):	7,354	3,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:	68.3%	73.6%
Black/African American:	13.5%	12.6%
Asian:	9%	5.1%
Native American:	0.2%	0.8%
Pacific Islander:	0%	0.2%
Two or more:	2.5%	3%
Hispanic/Latino:	19%	17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:	88.6%	86.7%
College graduation rate:	36.8%	29.8%
Income
Median household income:	$72,093	$53,889
Persons below poverty level:	12.7%	11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Jersey. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, New Jersey had a population of approximately 9 million people, and its three largest cities were New Jersey (pop. est. 283,000), Jersey City (pop. est. 265,000), and Paterson (pop. est. 147,000).

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New Jersey from 2000 to 2016.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New Jersey every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), New Jersey 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Hillary Clinton	55.5%	Donald Trump	41.4%	14.1%
2012	Barack Obama	58.4%	Mitt Romney	40.6%	17.8%
2008	Barack Obama	57.2%	John McCain	41.7%	15.5%
2004	John Kerry	52.9%	George W. Bush	46.2%	6.7%
2000	Al Gore	56.1%	George W. Bush	40.3%	15.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New Jersey from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), New Jersey 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2014	Cory Booker	55.8%	Jeff Bell	42.3%	13.5%
2012	Bob Menendez	58.9%	Joseph Kyrillos	39.4%	19.5%
2008	Frank Lautenberg	56.0%	Dick Zimmer	42.0%	14.0%
2006	Bob Menendez	53.3%	Thomas Kean Jr.	44.3%	9.0%
2002	Frank Lautenberg	53.9%	Doug Forrester	44.0%	9.9%
2000	Jon Corzine	50.1%	Bob Franks	47.1%	3.0%

Gubernatorial elections, 2001-2017

This chart shows the results of the five gubernatorial elections held between 2001 and 2017. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in New Jersey, and, unlike most states, they take place in odd years.

Election results (Governor), New Jersey 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2017	Phil Murphy	56.0%	Kim Guadagno	41.9%	14.1%
2013	Chris Christie	60.3%	Barbara Buono	38.2%	22.1%
2009	Chris Christie	48.5%	Jon Corzine	44.9%	3.6%
2005	Jon Corzine	53.5%	Doug Forrester	43.0%	10.5%
2001	Jim McGreevey	56.4%	Bret Schundler	41.7%	14.7%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New Jersey in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, New Jersey 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	5	41.7%	7	58.3%	D+2
2014	6	50.0%	6	50.0%	Even
2012	6	50.0%	6	50.0%	Even
2010	6	46.2%	7	53.8%	D+1
2008	5	38.5%	8	61.5%	D+3
2006	6	46.2%	7	53.8%	D+1
2004	6	46.2%	7	53.8%	D+1
2002	6	46.2%	7	53.8%	D+1
2000	6	46.2%	7	53.8%	D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2018

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

New Jersey Party Control: 1992-2025
Fourteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Eight years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25
Governor	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Senate	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Assembly	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

,

See also

• New Jersey's 4th Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Democratic primary)
• New Jersey's 4th Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)
• United States House of Representatives elections in New Jersey, 2018
• United States House of Representatives elections, 2018

Footnotes

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New Jersey's current delegation to the United States Congress

Senators

Cory Booker (D)

Andrew Kim (D)

Representatives

District 1

Donald Norcross (D)

District 2

Jeff Van Drew (R)

District 3

Herbert Conaway (D)

District 4

Chris Smith (R)

District 5

Josh Gottheimer (D)

District 6

Frank Pallone (D)

District 7

Thomas Kean (R)

District 8

Robert Menendez (D)

District 9

Nellie Pou (D)

District 10

LaMonica McIver (D)

District 11

Mikie Sherrill (D)

District 12

Bonnie Coleman (D)

Democratic Party (11)

Republican Party (3)