New Mexico's 1st Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 20 - Nov. 3
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
|
| New Mexico's 1st Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: March 13, 2018 |
| Primary: June 5, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Michelle Lujan Grisham (Democrat) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in New Mexico |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd New Mexico elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Former state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) ran unopposed for the Republican nomination for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District. She faced former Democratic state party chair Debra Haaland (D) in the general election.
This seat became open when incumbent Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) announced she was running in New Mexico's 2018 gubernatorial election.[1] The National Republican Congressional Committee selected this district as one of its top 36 targets for the midterm elections.[2]
| New Mexico voter? Dates you need to know. | |
|---|---|
| Primary election | June 5, 2018 |
| Candidate filing deadline | March 13, 2018 |
| Registration deadline | May 8, 2018 |
| Absentee application deadline | June 1, 2018 |
| General election | November 6, 2018 |
| Voting information | |
| Primary type | Closed |
| Early voting deadline | June 2, 2018 |
| Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day. | |
For more on related elections, please see:
- New Mexico's 1st Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)
- New Mexico's 1st Congressional District election, 2018
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2018
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2018
- Democratic Party primaries in New Mexico, 2018
- Republican Party primaries in New Mexico, 2018
Candidates and election results
Janice Arnold-Jones advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1 on June 5, 2018.
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 1
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Janice Arnold-Jones  | 100.0 | 19,316 |
| Total votes: 19,316 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+7, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 7 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made New Mexico's 1st Congressional District the 143rd most Democratic nationally.[3]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[4]
Campaign finance
The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[5]
Republicans
Race ratings
| Race ratings: New Mexico's 1st Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. | |||||||||
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Three of 33 New Mexico counties—9 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Colfax County, New Mexico | 8.55% | 2.24% | 10.73% | ||||
| Hidalgo County, New Mexico | 6.73% | 4.96% | 2.92% | ||||
| Valencia County, New Mexico | 8.60% | 2.47% | 7.72% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Mexico with 48.3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 40 percent. In presidential elections between 1912 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic 56 percent of the time and Republican 44 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic four times. The state voted Republican in 2004.[6]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in New Mexico. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 29.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 26.7 points. Clinton won nine districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 24.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 27 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 20.96% | 75.79% | R+54.8 | 18.04% | 72.51% | R+54.5 | R |
| 2 | 27.47% | 69.17% | R+41.7 | 21.96% | 67.15% | R+45.2 | R |
| 3 | 22.91% | 73.48% | R+50.6 | 17.17% | 73.66% | R+56.5 | R |
| 4 | 51.61% | 45.33% | D+6.3 | 42.79% | 42.74% | D+0.1 | R |
| 5 | 70.17% | 26.83% | D+43.3 | 60.70% | 24.05% | D+36.6 | D |
| 6 | 70.21% | 27.48% | D+42.7 | 58.64% | 28.48% | D+30.2 | D |
| 7 | 50.49% | 44.11% | D+6.4 | 40.92% | 45.72% | R+4.8 | R |
| 8 | 46.36% | 48.66% | R+2.3 | 37.51% | 49.60% | R+12.1 | R |
| 9 | 71.00% | 26.44% | D+44.6 | 61.37% | 24.12% | D+37.2 | D |
| 10 | 65.21% | 30.46% | D+34.8 | 56.93% | 31.21% | D+25.7 | D |
| 11 | 74.16% | 20.74% | D+53.4 | 69.71% | 18.46% | D+51.2 | D |
| 12 | 68.74% | 26.63% | D+42.1 | 61.46% | 27.69% | D+33.8 | D |
| 13 | 67.68% | 27.95% | D+39.7 | 59.39% | 27.06% | D+32.3 | D |
| 14 | 75.95% | 20.09% | D+55.9 | 65.37% | 23.23% | D+42.1 | D |
| 15 | 49.95% | 45.35% | D+4.6 | 48.43% | 38.84% | D+9.6 | R |
| 16 | 60.23% | 35.40% | D+24.8 | 54.22% | 33.06% | D+21.2 | D |
| 17 | 62.55% | 32.61% | D+29.9 | 57.98% | 29.63% | D+28.3 | D |
| 18 | 74.99% | 17.57% | D+57.4 | 73.69% | 13.64% | D+60.1 | D |
| 19 | 71.55% | 22.91% | D+48.6 | 67.73% | 20.05% | D+47.7 | D |
| 20 | 46.26% | 48.57% | R+2.3 | 45.05% | 41.13% | D+3.9 | R |
| 21 | 61.08% | 33.19% | D+27.9 | 53.96% | 31.12% | D+22.8 | D |
| 22 | 42.30% | 51.77% | R+9.5 | 40.33% | 46.60% | R+6.3 | R |
| 23 | 50.61% | 44.70% | D+5.9 | 47.86% | 39.71% | D+8.1 | D |
| 24 | 52.10% | 42.11% | D+10 | 47.19% | 36.79% | D+10.4 | D |
| 25 | 60.90% | 33.31% | D+27.6 | 57.03% | 28.81% | D+28.2 | D |
| 26 | 62.57% | 33.00% | D+29.6 | 55.12% | 32.19% | D+22.9 | D |
| 27 | 43.63% | 51.56% | R+7.9 | 43.86% | 42.63% | D+1.2 | R |
| 28 | 43.36% | 51.02% | R+7.7 | 43.31% | 42.27% | D+1 | R |
| 29 | 48.16% | 47.12% | D+1 | 45.04% | 41.24% | D+3.8 | R |
| 30 | 50.06% | 44.08% | D+6 | 47.75% | 37.01% | D+10.7 | R |
| 31 | 38.29% | 57.90% | R+19.6 | 41.78% | 45.91% | R+4.1 | R |
| 32 | 48.95% | 47.93% | D+1 | 43.90% | 47.34% | R+3.4 | D |
| 33 | 57.44% | 38.34% | D+19.1 | 55.59% | 32.01% | D+23.6 | D |
| 34 | 67.75% | 30.86% | D+36.9 | 64.65% | 28.49% | D+36.2 | D |
| 35 | 58.06% | 38.71% | D+19.3 | 54.23% | 34.26% | D+20 | D |
| 36 | 53.29% | 43.51% | D+9.8 | 49.35% | 39.28% | D+10.1 | D |
| 37 | 50.09% | 46.98% | D+3.1 | 49.32% | 39.69% | D+9.6 | D |
| 38 | 45.97% | 50.34% | R+4.4 | 39.87% | 49.90% | R+10 | R |
| 39 | 53.53% | 43.60% | D+9.9 | 48.95% | 41.86% | D+7.1 | D |
| 40 | 69.65% | 27.03% | D+42.6 | 60.30% | 28.99% | D+31.3 | D |
| 41 | 74.26% | 22.15% | D+52.1 | 64.48% | 23.77% | D+40.7 | D |
| 42 | 77.86% | 18.20% | D+59.7 | 69.70% | 18.34% | D+51.4 | D |
| 43 | 51.55% | 42.52% | D+9 | 51.63% | 31.90% | D+19.7 | D |
| 44 | 42.34% | 53.33% | R+11 | 38.87% | 48.14% | R+9.3 | R |
| 45 | 75.50% | 20.49% | D+55 | 71.68% | 19.09% | D+52.6 | D |
| 46 | 76.11% | 19.64% | D+56.5 | 72.91% | 17.80% | D+55.1 | D |
| 47 | 75.23% | 21.12% | D+54.1 | 75.51% | 16.95% | D+58.6 | D |
| 48 | 79.43% | 16.14% | D+63.3 | 76.07% | 15.07% | D+61 | D |
| 49 | 48.75% | 46.04% | D+2.7 | 39.56% | 48.03% | R+8.5 | R |
| 50 | 54.56% | 40.49% | D+14.1 | 49.33% | 40.67% | D+8.7 | D |
| 51 | 34.24% | 62.18% | R+27.9 | 29.61% | 60.13% | R+30.5 | R |
| 52 | 62.23% | 35.17% | D+27.1 | 62.07% | 29.79% | D+32.3 | D |
| 53 | 48.82% | 48.52% | D+0.3 | 48.39% | 41.93% | D+6.5 | R |
| 54 | 32.19% | 64.92% | R+32.7 | 25.69% | 66.62% | R+40.9 | R |
| 55 | 29.64% | 67.48% | R+37.8 | 24.35% | 67.91% | R+43.6 | R |
| 56 | 34.58% | 61.37% | R+26.8 | 29.21% | 61.10% | R+31.9 | R |
| 57 | 45.25% | 50.34% | R+5.1 | 39.99% | 46.81% | R+6.8 | R |
| 58 | 43.98% | 52.91% | R+8.9 | 36.58% | 53.06% | R+16.5 | R |
| 59 | 29.23% | 67.78% | R+38.5 | 23.93% | 67.65% | R+43.7 | R |
| 60 | 42.37% | 52.23% | R+9.9 | 38.93% | 47.35% | R+8.4 | R |
| 61 | 32.56% | 65.02% | R+32.5 | 29.95% | 62.63% | R+32.7 | R |
| 62 | 19.59% | 78.35% | R+58.8 | 18.39% | 74.53% | R+56.1 | R |
| 63 | 49.61% | 47.24% | D+2.4 | 36.71% | 51.26% | R+14.6 | D |
| 64 | 24.47% | 72.92% | R+48.5 | 20.65% | 70.74% | R+50.1 | R |
| 65 | 79.83% | 16.71% | D+63.1 | 67.22% | 16.91% | D+50.3 | D |
| 66 | 24.60% | 72.24% | R+47.6 | 21.08% | 69.94% | R+48.9 | R |
| 67 | 37.15% | 59.71% | R+22.6 | 27.94% | 62.43% | R+34.5 | R |
| 68 | 47.01% | 48.56% | R+1.5 | 43.56% | 42.91% | D+0.7 | R |
| 69 | 68.52% | 28.07% | D+40.4 | 56.03% | 29.07% | D+27 | D |
| 70 | 69.54% | 26.69% | D+42.9 | 60.23% | 28.91% | D+31.3 | D |
| Total | 52.99% | 42.84% | D+10.1 | 48.26% | 40.04% | D+8.2 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of state and federal positions in New Mexico heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2014 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in New Mexico.
- Democrats held two of the state's three U.S. House seats while Republicans held the third.
State executives
- As of September 2018, Democrats held 15 of 27 state executive offices. Republicans held six, Libertarians held one, and the remaining five were held by nonpartisan officials.
- The governor of New Mexico was Republican Susana Martinez. Martinez won office in 2010 and was re-elected in 2014.
State legislature
- Democrats controlled both chambers of the New Mexico State Legislature. They had a 38-31 majority in the state House and a 24-18 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- New Mexico was under divided government, with Democrats controlling both houses of the state legislature and Republican Susana Martinez serving as governor.
2018 elections
- See also: New Mexico elections, 2018
New Mexico held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One seat in the U.S. Senate
- All three seats in the U.S. House
- Governor
- Eight other state executive offices
- All 70 seats in the state House
- Three of five seats on the state Supreme Court
- Six of 10 seats on the state Court of Appeals
- Municipal elections in Bernalillo County
Demographics
| Demographic data for New Mexico | ||
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 2,080,328 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 121,298 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 73.2% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 2.1% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 1.4% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 9.1% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 3.3% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 47.4% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 84.2% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 26.3% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $44,963 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 24.7% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Mexico. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, New Mexico's three largest cities were Albuquerque (pop. est. 560,000), Las Cruces (pop. est. 100,000), and Rio Rancho (pop. est. 96,000).[9]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New Mexico from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from New Mexico Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New Mexico every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), New Mexico 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 |  Hillary Clinton |
48.3% | Donald Trump |
40.0% | 8.3% |
| 2012 | Barack Obama |
53.0% | Mitt Romney |
42.8% | 10.2% |
| 2008 | Barack Obama |
56.9% | John McCain |
41.8% | 15.1% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
49.8% | John Kerry |
49.1% | 0.7% |
| 2000 | Al Gore |
47.9% | George W. Bush |
47.9% | 0.0% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New Mexico from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), New Mexico 2000-2014 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Tom Udall |
55.6% | Allan Weh |
44.4% | 11.2% |
| 2012 | Martin Heinrich |
51.0% | Heather Wilson |
45.3% | 5.7% |
| 2008 | Tom Udall |
61.3% | Steve Pearce |
38.7% | 22.6% |
| 2006 | Jeff Bingaman |
70.6% | Allen McCulloch |
29.3% | 41.3% |
| 2002 | Pete Domenici |
65.0% | Gloria Tristani |
35.0% | 30.0% |
| 2000 | Jeff Bingaman |
62.7% | Bill Redmond |
37.3% | 25.4% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in New Mexico.
| Election results (Governor), New Mexico 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Susana Martinez |
57.3% | Gary King |
42.7% | 14.6% |
| 2010 | Susana Martinez |
53.3% | Diane Denish |
46.5% | 6.8% |
| 2006 | Bill Richardson |
68.8% | John Dendahl |
31.2% | 37.6% |
| 2002 | Bill Richardson |
55.5% | John Sanchez |
39.0% | 16.5% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New Mexico in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, New Mexico 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 1 |
33.3% | 2 |
66.7% | D+1 |
| 2014 | 1 |
33.3% | 2 |
66.7% | D+1 |
| 2012 | 1 |
33.3% | 2 |
66.7% | D+1 |
| 2010 | 1 |
33.3% | 2 |
66.7% | D+1 |
| 2008 | 0 |
0.0% | 3 |
100.0% | D+3 |
| 2006 | 2 |
66.7% | 1 |
33.3% | R+1 |
| 2004 | 2 |
66.7% | 1 |
33.3% | R+1 |
| 2002 | 2 |
66.7% | 1 |
33.3% | R+1 |
| 2000 | 2 |
66.7% | 1 |
33.3% | R+1 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
New Mexico Party Control: 1992-2025
Eighteen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico, 2018
- United States House elections in New Mexico (June 5, 2018 Republican primaries)
- New Mexico's 1st Congressional District election (June 5, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Albuquerque Journal, "Congressional hopefuls make pitches at forum," December 16, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "House Republicans name Democratic targets for 2018," February 8, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
- ↑ 270towin.com, "New Mexico," accessed August 8, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ New Mexico Demographics by Cubit, "New Mexico Cities by Population," accessed September 7, 2018
