New Mexico's 1st Congressional District elections, 2012
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November 6, 2012 |
June 5, 2012 |
Michelle Lujan Grisham  |
Martin Heinrich |
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The 1st Congressional District of New Mexico held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Democratic candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham won the election.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: New Mexico had a closed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party could vote in that party's primary.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by May 8. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9.[2]
- See also: New Mexico elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Martin Heinrich (D), who was first elected to the House in 2008. He did not seek re-election in 2012, as he ran for U.S. Senate.[3]
This was the first election using district maps based on data from the 2010 Census. New Mexico's 1st Congressional District was located in the north-central portion of the state and included Torrance, Barnaillo, and Sandoval counties.[4]
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. Click here for more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan. Please contact us about errors in this list.
General election candidates
June 5, 2012, primary results
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Election results
General Election
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic |  Michelle Lujan Grisham |
59.1% | 162,924 | |
| Republican | Janice Arnold-Jones | 40.8% | 112,473 | |
| Write-In | Jeanne Pahls | 0.2% | 459 | |
| Total Votes | 275,856 | |||
| Source: New Mexico Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Democratic Primary
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Michelle Lujan Grisham |
40.1% | 19,111 |
| Eric Griego | 35% | 16,702 |
| Marty Chavez | 24.9% | 11,895 |
| Total Votes | 47,708 | |
Democratic primary
Polls
A poll put Michelle Lujan Grisham and Eric Griego neck and neck, with Marty Chavez trailing.[9] The poll showed Griego leading among Hispanics, women, and liberals, while Grisham led among men and Anglos.
Campaign funding
As of May 2012, Eric Griego had raised $847,000, Marty Chavez had raised $645,000, and Michelle Lujan Grisham had raised $597,000.[10]
Super PAC involvement
The Super PAC Progressive Kick spent $1,000 to oppose Michelle Lujan Grisham, while Super PAC Women Vote! spent $21,305 supporting her.[11]
Endorsements
- Eric Griego was endorsed by the Daily Kos, Moveon.org, AFSCME, AFT, and the Sierra Club, among others.[12] A full list was available on his website.
- Michelle Lujan Grisham was endorsed by the National Women’s Political Caucus, Women's Campaign Fund, the Albuquerque Journal, New Mexico's firefighters union and the state pharmacists union, among others.[13] A full list was available on her website.
- Marty Chavez was endorsed by former President Bill Clinton, actor Robert Redford, and former president of New Mexico's AFLCIO Jeep Gilliand, among others.[14] A full list was available on his website.
Polls
| Michelle Lujan Grisham vs Janice Arnold-Jones | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Grisham | Arnold-Jones | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||||
| ABQ Journal (October 30,2012) | 51% | 36% | +/-- | - | |||||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Race background
New Mexico's 1st was considered to be Leaning Democratic according to the New York Times race ratings. Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham had a significant edge in fundraising over her opponent Janice Arnold-Jones. A major issue in the race was healthcare, with Grisham backing the new law and Arnold-Jones opposed to it.[15]
New Mexico's 1st District had been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization had specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[16]
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in New Mexico
Following the results of the 2010 Census, New Mexico neither gained nor lost a seat, keeping its number of representatives at three.
Registration statistics
As of October 25, 2012, District 1 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the New Mexico Secretary of State:
| New Mexico Congressional District 1[17] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 1 | 426,085 | 197,922 | 135,919 | 92,244 | Democratic | 45.62% | -.61% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. New Mexico's 1st District became more Democratic because of redistricting.[18]
- 2012: 57D / 43R
- 2010: 56D / 44R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measured each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. New Mexico's 1st Congressional District had a PVI of D+5, which was the 147th most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 60-40 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, John Kerry (D) won the district 52-48 percent over George W. Bush (R).[19]
District history
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2010
On November 2, 2010, Martin Heinrich was re-elected to the United States House for a second term. He defeated Jonathan L. Barela (R).[20]
| United States House, New Mexico General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Martin Heinrich Incumbent |
51.8% | 112,010 | |
| Republican | Jonathan L. Barela | 48.2% | 104,215 | |
| Total Votes | 216,225 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
- United States Senate elections in New Mexico, 2012
Footnotes
- ↑ Politico, "2012 House Race Results," accessed November 6, 2012
- ↑ New Mexico Secretary of State, "Voter Registration FAQ," accessed June 30, 2012
- ↑ Washington Post, "Heinrich to run for Senate in New Mexico," accessed December 22, 2011
- ↑ New Mexico Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed August 29, 2012
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Roll Call "Ex-Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez Running in 1st District," accessed December 22, 2011
- ↑ NMPolitics "Lujan Grisham enters congressional race," accessed December 22, 2011
- ↑ Albuquerque Journal "UPDATED: Dan Lewis Drops Out of 1st District Congressional Race," March 20, 2012
- ↑ Capitol Report New Mexico "Gary Smith kicked off ballot in congressional race, Luevano appealing his loss in court," April 16, 2012
- ↑ New Mexico Telegram, "Poll: Lujan Grisham slight lead over Griego, Heinrich big lead over Balderas," May 23, 2012
- ↑ The (New Mexico) Republic, "Democrat Eric Griego tops in pre-primary fundraising in NM 1st Congressional District," May 25, 2012
- ↑ Huffington Post, "HUFFPOST FUNDRACE -- Super PACs Concerned About Tone of Race," May 25, 2012
- ↑ Eric Griego campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed May 26, 2012
- ↑ Michelle Lujan Grisham campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed May 26, 2012
- ↑ Marty Chavez campaign website, "Supporters," accessed May 26, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 10, 2012
- ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
- ↑ New Mexico Secretary of State, "Voter Registration Statistics Report," June 29, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in New Mexico," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
