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New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ben Ray Luján
Ben Ray Luján (D)
 
63.4
 
155,201
Image of Jerald Steve McFall
Jerald Steve McFall (R)
 
31.2
 
76,427
Image of Christopher Manning
Christopher Manning (L) Candidate Connection
 
5.4
 
13,265

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 244,893
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2020 →
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New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 13, 2018
Primary: June 5, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Ben Ray Lujan (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in New Mexico
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+8
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd
New Mexico elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of New Mexico, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Ben Ray Lujan (D), who was first elected in 2008.

New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District is located in the northern portion of the state and includes Colfax, Curry, Harding, Los Alamos, Mora, Quay, Rio Arriba, San Juan, San Miguel, Taos, and Union counties along with areas of Bernalillo, McKinley, Roosevelt, Sandoval and Santa Fe counties.[1]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Incumbent Ben Ray Luján defeated Jerald Steve McFall and Christopher Manning in the general election for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ben Ray Luján
Ben Ray Luján (D)
 
63.4
 
155,201
Image of Jerald Steve McFall
Jerald Steve McFall (R)
 
31.2
 
76,427
Image of Christopher Manning
Christopher Manning (L) Candidate Connection
 
5.4
 
13,265

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 244,893
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Incumbent Ben Ray Luján advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ben Ray Luján
Ben Ray Luján
 
100.0
 
63,909

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 63,909
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Jerald Steve McFall advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jerald Steve McFall
Jerald Steve McFall
 
100.0
 
20,480

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 20,480
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Christopher Manning advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Christopher Manning
Christopher Manning Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
201

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 201
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+8, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District the 141st most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.93. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.93 points toward that party.[3]

Race background

New Mexico's 3rd District was listed as one of the NRCC's initial targets in 2018.[4]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Ben Ray Luján Democratic Party $1,963,784 $2,352,262 $380,709 As of December 31, 2018
Jerald Steve McFall Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Christopher Manning Libertarian Party $7,957 $7,244 $-128 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Ben Ray Lujan (D) defeated Michael H. Romero (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Lujan faced no primary challenger, while Romero defeated Michael Glenn Lucero to win the Republican nomination. The primary elections took place on June 7, 2016.[5][6]

U.S. House, New Mexico District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Ray Lujan Incumbent 62.4% 170,612
     Republican Michael H. Romero 37.6% 102,730
Total Votes 273,342
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State


U.S. House, New Mexico District 3 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMichael Romero 62% 17,025
Michael Lucero 38% 10,419
Total Votes 27,444
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State

2014

See also: New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of New Mexico held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Ben Ray Lujan (D) defeated Jefferson Byrd (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, New Mexico District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Ray Lujan Incumbent 61.5% 113,249
     Republican Jefferson Byrd 38.4% 70,775
     Write-in (R) Thomas F. Hook (write-in) 0% 52
Total Votes 184,076
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 33 New Mexico counties—9 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Colfax County, New Mexico 8.55% 2.24% 10.73%
Hidalgo County, New Mexico 6.73% 4.96% 2.92%
Valencia County, New Mexico 8.60% 2.47% 7.72%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Mexico with 48.3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 40 percent. In presidential elections between 1912 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic 56 percent of the time and Republican 44 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic four times. The state voted Republican in 2004.[7]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in New Mexico. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 29.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 26.7 points. Clinton won nine districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 24.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 27 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of state and federal positions in New Mexico heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

  • Following the 2014 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in New Mexico.
  • Democrats held two of the state's three U.S. House seats while Republicans held the third.

State executives

  • As of September 2018, Democrats held 15 of 27 state executive offices. Republicans held six, Libertarians held one, and the remaining five were held by nonpartisan officials.
  • The governor of New Mexico was Republican Susana Martinez. Martinez won office in 2010 and was re-elected in 2014.

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: New Mexico elections, 2018

New Mexico held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for New Mexico
 New MexicoU.S.
Total population:2,080,328316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):121,2983,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:73.2%73.6%
Black/African American:2.1%12.6%
Asian:1.4%5.1%
Native American:9.1%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:3.3%3%
Hispanic/Latino:47.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:84.2%86.7%
College graduation rate:26.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$44,963$53,889
Persons below poverty level:24.7%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New Mexico.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, New Mexico's three largest cities were Albuquerque (pop. est. 560,000), Las Cruces (pop. est. 100,000), and Rio Rancho (pop. est. 96,000).[10]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in New Mexico from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from New Mexico Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in New Mexico every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), New Mexico 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 48.3% Republican Party Donald Trump 40.0% 8.3%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 53.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 42.8% 10.2%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 56.9% Republican Party John McCain 41.8% 15.1%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 49.8% Democratic Party John Kerry 49.1% 0.7%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 47.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.9% 0.0%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in New Mexico from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), New Mexico 2000-2014
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Tom Udall 55.6% Republican Party Allan Weh 44.4% 11.2%
2012 Democratic Party Martin Heinrich 51.0% Republican Party Heather Wilson 45.3% 5.7%
2008 Democratic Party Tom Udall 61.3% Republican Party Steve Pearce 38.7% 22.6%
2006 Democratic Party Jeff Bingaman 70.6% Republican Party Allen McCulloch 29.3% 41.3%
2002 Republican Party Pete Domenici 65.0% Democratic Party Gloria Tristani 35.0% 30.0%
2000 Democratic Party Jeff Bingaman 62.7% Republican Party Bill Redmond 37.3% 25.4%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in New Mexico.

Election results (Governor), New Mexico 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Susana Martinez 57.3% Democratic Party Gary King 42.7% 14.6%
2010 Republican Party Susana Martinez 53.3% Democratic Party Diane Denish 46.5% 6.8%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Richardson 68.8% Republican Party John Dendahl 31.2% 37.6%
2002 Democratic Party Bill Richardson 55.5% Republican Party John Sanchez 39.0% 16.5%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent New Mexico in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, New Mexico 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 1 33.3% Democratic Party 2 66.7% D+1
2014 Republican Party 1 33.3% Democratic Party 2 66.7% D+1
2012 Republican Party 1 33.3% Democratic Party 2 66.7% D+1
2010 Republican Party 1 33.3% Democratic Party 2 66.7% D+1
2008 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 3 100.0% D+3
2006 Republican Party 2 66.7% Democratic Party 1 33.3% R+1
2004 Republican Party 2 66.7% Democratic Party 1 33.3% R+1
2002 Republican Party 2 66.7% Democratic Party 1 33.3% R+1
2000 Republican Party 2 66.7% Democratic Party 1 33.3% R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

New Mexico Party Control: 1992-2025
Eighteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R D D D D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Politico, "House Republicans name Democratic targets for 2018," February 8, 2017
  5. ↑ New Mexico Scretary of State ,"2016 Primary Election Contest/Candidate List," accessed February 3, 2016
  6. ↑ The New York Times "New Mexico Primary Results," June 7, 2016
  7. ↑ 270towin.com, "New Mexico," accessed August 8, 2017
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  10. ↑ New Mexico Demographics by Cubit, "New Mexico Cities by Population," accessed September 7, 2018
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Election information
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New Mexico's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Martin Heinrich (D)
Ben Luján (D)
Representatives
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Democratic Party (5)

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