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New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

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New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 10, 2020
Primary: June 2, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Ben Ray Lujan (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in New Mexico
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd
New Mexico elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of New Mexico, held elections in 2020.

Teresa Leger Fernandez won election in the general election for U.S. House New Mexico District 3.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
March 10, 2020
June 2, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Ben Ray Lujan, who was first elected in 2008.


New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District is located in the northern portion of the state and includes Colfax, Curry, Harding, Los Alamos, Mora, Quay, Rio Arriba, San Juan, San Miguel, Taos, and Union counties along with areas of Bernalillo, McKinley, Roosevelt, Sandoval and Santa Fe counties.[1]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 57.7 58.7
Republican candidate Republican Party 40.1 41.3
Difference 17.6 17.4

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

New Mexico modified its absentee/mail-in voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee ballot applications were sent to all registered voters in the general election.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Teresa Leger Fernandez defeated Alexis Martinez Johnson in the general election for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Teresa Leger Fernandez
Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
 
58.7
 
186,282
Image of Alexis Martinez Johnson
Alexis Martinez Johnson (R) Candidate Connection
 
41.3
 
131,166

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 317,448
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Teresa Leger Fernandez
Teresa Leger Fernandez
 
42.8
 
44,480
Image of Valerie Plame
Valerie Plame Candidate Connection
 
24.8
 
25,775
Image of Joseph Sanchez
Joseph Sanchez Candidate Connection
 
11.8
 
12,292
Image of Marco Serna
Marco Serna Candidate Connection
 
8.0
 
8,292
Image of Laura Montoya
Laura Montoya Candidate Connection
 
6.1
 
6,380
Image of John Blair
John Blair
 
4.4
 
4,533
Image of Kyle Tisdel
Kyle Tisdel
 
2.1
 
2,176

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 103,928
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Alexis Martinez Johnson defeated Harry Montoya, Karen Bedonie, and Angela Gale Morales in the Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on June 2, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Alexis Martinez Johnson
Alexis Martinez Johnson Candidate Connection
 
36.7
 
16,512
Image of Harry Montoya
Harry Montoya
 
35.4
 
15,919
Image of Karen Bedonie
Karen Bedonie Candidate Connection
 
27.8
 
12,477
Image of Angela Gale Morales
Angela Gale Morales (Write-in) Candidate Connection
 
0.1
 
30

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 44,938
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Three of 33 New Mexico counties—9 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Colfax County, New Mexico 8.55% 2.24% 10.73%
Hidalgo County, New Mexico 6.73% 4.96% 2.92%
Valencia County, New Mexico 8.60% 2.47% 7.72%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Mexico with 48.3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 40 percent. In presidential elections between 1912 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic 56 percent of the time and Republican 44 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic four times. The state voted Republican in 2004.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in New Mexico. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 29.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 26.7 points. Clinton won nine districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 24.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 27 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+8, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 8 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District the 141st most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.93. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.93 points toward that party.[6]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Teresa Leger Fernandez Democratic Party $2,305,078 $2,143,697 $161,470 As of December 31, 2020
Alexis Martinez Johnson Republican Party $156,175 $156,175 $0 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 3rd Congressional District candidates in New Mexico in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in New Mexico, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
New Mexico 3rd Congressional District Democratic 1,492 2% of votes cast for all the party's gubernatorial candidates in the last primary election (within the district) N/A N/A 2/4/2020 Source
New Mexico 3rd Congressional District Republican 463 2% of votes cast for all the party's gubernatorial candidates in the last primary election (within the district) N/A N/A 2/4/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Incumbent Ben Ray Luján defeated Jerald Steve McFall and Christopher Manning in the general election for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ben Ray Luján
Ben Ray Luján (D)
 
63.4
 
155,201
Image of Jerald Steve McFall
Jerald Steve McFall (R)
 
31.2
 
76,427
Image of Christopher Manning
Christopher Manning (L) Candidate Connection
 
5.4
 
13,265

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 244,893
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Incumbent Ben Ray Luján advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ben Ray Luján
Ben Ray Luján
 
100.0
 
63,909

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 63,909
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Jerald Steve McFall advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Jerald Steve McFall
Jerald Steve McFall
 
100.0
 
20,480

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 20,480
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3

Christopher Manning advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House New Mexico District 3 on June 5, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Christopher Manning
Christopher Manning Candidate Connection
 
100.0
 
201

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 201
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Ben Ray Lujan (D) defeated Michael H. Romero (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Lujan faced no primary challenger, while Romero defeated Michael Glenn Lucero to win the Republican nomination. The primary elections took place on June 7, 2016.[13][14]

U.S. House, New Mexico District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Ray Lujan Incumbent 62.4% 170,612
     Republican Michael H. Romero 37.6% 102,730
Total Votes 273,342
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State


U.S. House, New Mexico District 3 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngMichael Romero 62% 17,025
Michael Lucero 38% 10,419
Total Votes 27,444
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State

2014

See also: New Mexico's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of New Mexico held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Ben Ray Lujan (D) defeated Jefferson Byrd (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, New Mexico District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBen Ray Lujan Incumbent 61.5% 113,249
     Republican Jefferson Byrd 38.4% 70,775
     Write-in (R) Thomas F. Hook (write-in) 0% 52
Total Votes 184,076
Source: New Mexico Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "New Mexico," accessed August 8, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. ↑ New Mexico Scretary of State ,"2016 Primary Election Contest/Candidate List," accessed February 3, 2016
  14. ↑ The New York Times "New Mexico Primary Results," June 7, 2016


New Mexico's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Martin Heinrich (D)
Ben Luján (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
Democratic Party (5)


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