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New Mexico House of Representatives elections, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 20 - Nov. 3
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
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2020 →
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| 2018 New Mexico House elections | |
|---|---|
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| General | November 6, 2018 |
| Primary | June 5, 2018 |
| Past election results |
| 2016・2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 |
| 2018 elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
Democrats expanded their majority in the 2018 elections for the New Mexico House of Representatives, winning 46 seats to Republicans' 24. All 70 House seats were up for election. At the time of the election, Democrats held 38 seats to Republicans' 31, with one vacancy.
Ballotpedia identified 12 of the races as battlegrounds, including seven in Republican-held seats and five in Democratic-held seats. Democrats won 10 battlegrounds, including five in Republican-held seats, while Republicans won the remaining two.
Heading into the election, New Mexico had been under divided government since the 2010 elections, when Susana Martinez (R) was elected governor. Martinez's swearing-in ended a Democratic trifecta that had lasted since Gov. Bill Richardson (D) took office in 2003. At the time of the election, Democrats had held majorities in the state House since the 2016 legislative elections and in the state Senate since the 1932 legislative elections. Had the Republican Party taken the chamber, it would have prevented a Democratic trifecta from forming in New Mexico.
The New Mexico House of Representatives was one of 87 state legislative chambers with elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. The New Mexico House of Representatives was also one of 22 state legislative battleground chambers identified by Ballotpedia in the 2018 elections. Read more below.
New Mexico state representatives serve two-year terms, with all seats up for election every two years.
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Post-election analysis
- See also: State legislative elections, 2018
The Democratic Party maintained control of both chambers of the New Mexico State Legislature following the 2018 election. The state Senate did not hold regular elections. The New Mexico House of Representatives was identified as a battleground chamber. All 70 seats were up for election. The Democratic majority in the House of Representatives increased from 38-31 to 46-24. One seat was vacant before the election. One Democratic incumbent and six Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.
National background
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
- Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.
Want more information?
- Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
- 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
- 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
- 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities
Candidates
General election
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection
Write-in candidates
- Heather Nordquist (D), District 46
Primary election
The candidate list below is based on a candidate filing list provided by the New Mexico Secretary of State on March 13, 2018.[1] (I) denotes an incumbent.
Margins of victory
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 New Mexico House of Representatives races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
- Elections won
- Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
- Elections won without opposition
- Average margin of victory[2]
| New Mexico House of Representatives: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Elections won | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[2] |
| Democratic |
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| Republican |
||||
 Other |
||||
| Total | ||||
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).
Seats flipped
The below map displays each seat in the New Mexico House of Representatives which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
Incumbents retiring
Nine incumbents were not on the ballot in 2018.[3] Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Office |
|---|---|---|
| Sarah Maestas Barnes |  Republican |
House District 15 |
| Lorenzo Larranaga | Republican |
House District 27 |
| Nathaniel Gentry | Republican |
House District 30 |
| Bill McCamley |  Democratic |
House District 33 |
| Nick Salazar | Democratic |
House District 40 |
| Stephanie Richard | Democratic |
House District 43 |
| Yvette Herrell | Republican |
House District 51 |
| Bob Wooley | Republican |
House District 66 |
| Dennis Roch | Republican |
House District 67 |
Process to become a candidate
See statutes: Article 8 of the New Mexico Code
A candidate in New Mexico may run with an officially recognized political party, as an independent or as a write-in.
For major party candidates
A major party candidate files for office by submitting a declaration of candidacy and nominating petition to the proper filing official. A candidate must file the nominating petition and declaration of candidacy at the same time. This paperwork must be filed in person by the candidate between 9:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m. on the designated day for filing. The candidate must be affiliated with the political party with which he or she is running. Affiliation with that political party must be made before the date of the secretary of state's proclamation for the primary election.[4][5]
A candidate may seek a "pre-primary convention designation" before the primary election. A pre-primary convention designation guarantees a candidate a place on the primary election ballot. Every candidate receiving at least 20 percent of the vote at the party convention will be certified to the New Mexico Secretary of State as a convention-designated nominee for that office by the political party.[6][7]
According to the New Mexico Statutes, the nominating petition for a pre-primary convention designation candidate must be signed "by a number of voters equal to at least 2 percent of the total vote of the candidate's party in the state or congressional district, or the following number of voters, whichever is greater: for statewide offices, 230 voters; and for congressional candidates, 77 voters."[8]
A candidate who seeks but fails to receive a pre-primary convention designation may collect additional signatures totaling at least "4 percent of the total vote of the candidate's party in the state or congressional district, whichever applies to the office the candidate seeks." The candidate is required to file a new declaration of candidacy and the additional nominating petition for the office for which the candidate failed to receive a pre-primary designation. The post-convention declaration of candidacy and nominating petition must be filed with the New Mexico Secretary of State either 10 days following the date of the pre-primary convention at which the candidate failed to receive the designation, or on the date all declarations of candidacy and additional nominating petitions are due, whichever is later.[9]
For minor party candidates
The selection method for minor party candidates varies according to the rules of the specific party. Broadly speaking, the following requirements apply:[10]
- The chair and secretary of the state political convention must certify to the New Mexico Secretary of State the names of their party's nominees for federal, statewide, and state legislative offices.[11]
- The names certified to the New Mexico Secretary of State must be filed on the 21st day following the primary election and must be accompanied by a petition containing the signatures of at least 1 percent of the total number of the votes cast at the last preceding general election for the office of governor.[12]
- The petition must contain a statement affirming that the voters signing the petition are residents of New Mexico and the district, county, or area to be represented by the office being sought.[13]
For independent candidates
An independent candidate files for office by submitting a declaration of candidacy and nominating petition to the proper filing official. Candidates must file nominating petitions at the time of filing their declarations of candidacy.[14]
The petition for an independent candidate for the United States Senate or any other statewide office must be signed by at least 2 percent of the total number of votes cast for governor in the previous general election. The petition for an independent candidate for the United States House of Representatives must be signed by at least 2 percent of the total number of votes cast for governor in the previous general election in that particular congressional district. The petition for an independent candidate for the state legislature must be signed by at least 2 percent of the total number of votes cast for governor in the respective legislative district.[15]Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name cannot be a simple integer. Use a descriptive titleCite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name cannot be a simple integer. Use a descriptive title
All requisite paperwork must be filed with the proper filing official before 5:00 p.m. on the 23rd day following the primary election.[16]
For write-in candidates in the primary election
A write-in candidate may only seek the nomination of the party with which he or she is affiliated. The candidate must qualify to be a candidate for the political party whose nomination he or she seeks.[17]
The candidate must file with the proper filing official a declaration of intent to be a write-in candidate. The declaration must be filed before 5:00 p.m. on the third Tuesday in March in the year of the election.[18]
For write-in candidates in the general election
A write-in candidate in a general election must file a declaration of intent to be a write-in candidate with the proper filing official no later than the 21st day after the primary election.[19]
No person can run as a write-in candidate in the general election if he or she was a candidate in the primary election immediately preceding the general election.[20]
No unopposed write-in candidate can have an election certified unless the candidate receives votes equal to at least 1 percent of the total number of votes cast in the electoral district for governor in the last preceding general election in which a governor was elected.[21]
Qualifications
Article 4, Section 3 of the New Mexico Constitution states: Senators shall not be less than twenty-five years of age and representatives not less than twenty-one years of age at the time of their election. If any senator or representative permanently removes his residence from or maintains no residence in the district from which he was elected, then he shall be deemed to have resigned and his successor shall be selected as provided in Section 4 of this article. No person shall be eligible to serve in the legislature who, at the time of qualifying, holds any office of trust or profit with the state, county or national governments, except notaries public and officers of the militia who receive no salary.
Salaries and per diem
- See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
| State legislative salaries, 2024[22] | |
|---|---|
| Salary | Per diem |
| $0/year | $191/day |
When sworn in
New Mexico legislators assume office on the first day of January after a general election.[23]
2018 battleground chamber
Ballotpedia identified the New Mexico House of Representatives as one of 22 battleground chambers in 2018. These were chambers that we anticipated to be, overall, more competitive than other chambers and had the potential to see significant shifts in party control.
Chart last updated July 2, 2018.
The chamber was selected because it met the following conditions:
- Competitive seats: In 2016, five Democratic seats had a margin of victory that was less than 10 percent. Seven Republican seats had a margin of victory of less than 10 percent. See the 2018 races to watch here.
- Majority held less than 55 percent of seats: Democrats controlled 38 of 70 seats, which is 54.3 percent of the total.
- Recent party control switches: The chamber switched party control in the two elections prior to 2018. In 2014, it switched from Democratic to Republican control and in 2016 it switched back to Democratic control.
| Party control: 2006 - 2016 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Election Year: | 2006 | 2008 | 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | |||||||||
| Winning Party: | D | D | D | D | R | D | |||||||||
Battleground races
| New Mexico House of Representatives Battleground races |
|---|
| Democratic seats |
| District 23
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| District 24
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| District 32
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| District 37
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| District 39
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| Republican seats |
| District 4
|
| District 15
|
| District 29
|
| District 30
|
| District 38
|
| District 53
|
| District 57
|
Ballotpedia identified 12 battleground races in the New Mexico House of Representatives 2018 elections: five Democratic seats and seven Republican seats. Based on analysis of these districts' electoral histories, these races had the potential to be more competitive than other races and could possibly have led to shifts in a chamber's partisan balance.
To determine state legislative battleground races in 2018, Ballotpedia looked for races that fit one or more of the four factors listed below:
- If the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in the most recent election prior to 2018
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent’s margin of victory in the previous election was 10 percentage points or less
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections and the incumbent did not file to run for re-election
- If the presidential candidate opposite of the incumbent's party won the district in the 2016 elections by 20 points or more
Other factors could also cause a race to be classified as a battleground. For example, Ballotpedia may have considered an election to be a battleground race if an outside group or a national or state party announced that they were targeting a specific seat in order to flip it. We may have also determined a race to be a battleground if it received an unusual amount of media attention. Two additional factors were open seats and districts impacted by redistricting.
District 4
Who won this race?
| Democrat Anthony Allison defeated incumbent Republican Sharon E. Clahchischilliage. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Sharon E. Clahchischilliage (R) was first elected in 2012 and was re-elected in 2016. She received 54.3 percent of the vote and defeated her Democratic challenger by 8.6 points. District 4 was one of 45 New Mexico House districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 4 by 0.1 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 6.3 points. |
District 15
Who won this race?
| Democrat Dayan Hochman defeated Republican Brad Winter. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Sarah Maestas Barnes (R) was first elected in 2014 and was re-elected in 2016. She received 53.2 percent of the vote and defeated her Democratic challenger by 6.4 points. District 15 was one of 45 New Mexico House districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 15 by 9.6 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 4.6 points. |
District 23
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent Daymon Ely defeated Republican Brenda Boatman. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Daymon B. Ely (D) was first elected in 2016. He received 50.4 percent of the vote and defeated Republican incumbent Paul Pacheco by 0.7 points. District 23 was one of 45 New Mexico House districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 23 by 8.1 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 5.9 points. |
District 24
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent Elizabeth Thomson defeated Republican Trey Morris. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Elizabeth L. Thomson (D) was first elected in 2016. She received 52.3 percent of the vote and defeated her Republican challenger by 4.6 points. District 24 was one of 45 New Mexico House districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 24 by 10.4 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 10.0 points. |
District 29
Who won this race?
| Democrat Joy Garratt defeated Republican incumbent David Adkins. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent David Adkins (R) was first elected in 2014 and was re-elected in 2016. He received 50.03 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 0.06 points. District 29 was one of 45 New Mexico House districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 29 by 3.8 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 1.0 points. |
District 30
Who won this race?
| Democrat Natalie Figueroa defeated Republican John Jones. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Nathaniel Gentry (R) was first elected in 2010 and was re-elected in 2016. He received 52.2 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 4.4 points. District 30 was one of 45 New Mexico House districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 30 by 10.7 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 6.0 points. |
District 32
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent Candie Sweetser defeated Republican Laura Boyd. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Candie G. Sweetser (D) was first elected in 2016. She received 51.3 percent of the vote and defeated her Republican challenger by 2.6 points. District 32 was one of 25 New Mexico House districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 32 by 3.4 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 1.0 points. |
District 37
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent Joanne Ferrary defeated Republican Bev Courtney. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Joanne J. Ferrary (D) was first elected in 2016. She received 52.5 percent of the vote and defeated Republican incumbent Terry McMillan by 5.1 points. District 37 was one of 45 New Mexico House districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 37 by 9.6 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 3.1 points. |
District 38
Who won this race?
| Republican incumbent Rebecca Dow defeated Democrat Karen Whitlock. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Rebecca L. Dow (R) was first elected in 2016. She received 54.8 percent of the vote and defeated her Democratic challenger by 9.6 points. District 38 was one of 25 New Mexico House districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 38 by 10.0 points. Mitt Romney (R) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 4.4 points. |
District 39
Who won this race?
| Democratic incumbent Rodolpho Martinez defeated Republican Lee S. Cotter. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Democratic Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Rodolpho Martinez (D) was first elected in 2016. He received 51.1 percent of the vote and defeated Republican incumbent John L. Zimmerman by 2.2 points. District 39 was one of 45 New Mexico House districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 39 by 7.1 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 9.9 points. |
District 53
Who won this race?
| Democrat Willie Madrid defeated Republican incumbent Ricky Little. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016 and the presidential candidate of the opposite party won. Incumbent Ricky Little (R) was first elected in 2014 and was re-elected in 2016. He received 51.3 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 2.5 points. District 53 was one of 45 New Mexico House districts that Democrat Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton carried District 53 by 6.5 points. Barack Obama (D) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 0.3 points. |
District 57
Who won this race?
| Republican incumbent Jason Harper defeated Democrat Billie Helean. |
What party controlled the seat heading into the election?
| The Republican Party |
What made this a battleground race?
| This was a district where the incumbent won less than 55 percent of the vote in 2016. Incumbent Jason C. Harper (R) was first elected in 2012 and was re-elected in 2016. He received 54.96 percent of the vote and defeated his Democratic challenger by 9.9 points. District 57 was one of 25 New Mexico House districts that Republican Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Trump carried District 57 by 6.8 points. Mitt Romney (R) won the district in the 2012 presidential election by 5.1 points. |
New Mexico political history
Party control
2018
In the 2018 elections, Democrats increased their majority in the New Mexico House of Representatives from 38-31 to 46-24.
| New Mexico House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
| Democratic Party | 38 | 46 | |
| Republican Party | 31 | 24 | |
| Vacancy | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 70 | 70 | |
2016
In the 2016 elections, Democrats gained five seats and won control of the New Mexico House of Representatives.
| New Mexico House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 33 | 38 | |
| Republican Party | 37 | 32 | |
| Total | 70 | 70 | |
Trifectas
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Democrats in New Mexico held a state government trifecta for 11 years between 1992 and 2017.
New Mexico Party Control: 1992-2025
Eighteen years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| House | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| State legislative wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[24] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[25] | -782 | 7,561 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[26] | -695 | 7,481 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 | |
Competitiveness
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Results from 2016
Click here to read the full study »
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Three of 33 New Mexico counties—9 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Colfax County, New Mexico | 8.55% | 2.24% | 10.73% | ||||
| Hidalgo County, New Mexico | 6.73% | 4.96% | 2.92% | ||||
| Valencia County, New Mexico | 8.60% | 2.47% | 7.72% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New Mexico with 48.3 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 40 percent. In presidential elections between 1912 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic 56 percent of the time and Republican 44 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New Mexico voted Democratic four times. The state voted Republican in 2004.[27]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in New Mexico. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[28][29]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 29.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 45 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 26.7 points. Clinton won nine districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 24.4 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 25 out of 70 state House districts in New Mexico with an average margin of victory of 27 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 20.96% | 75.79% | R+54.8 | 18.04% | 72.51% | R+54.5 | R |
| 2 | 27.47% | 69.17% | R+41.7 | 21.96% | 67.15% | R+45.2 | R |
| 3 | 22.91% | 73.48% | R+50.6 | 17.17% | 73.66% | R+56.5 | R |
| 4 | 51.61% | 45.33% | D+6.3 | 42.79% | 42.74% | D+0.1 | R |
| 5 | 70.17% | 26.83% | D+43.3 | 60.70% | 24.05% | D+36.6 | D |
| 6 | 70.21% | 27.48% | D+42.7 | 58.64% | 28.48% | D+30.2 | D |
| 7 | 50.49% | 44.11% | D+6.4 | 40.92% | 45.72% | R+4.8 | R |
| 8 | 46.36% | 48.66% | R+2.3 | 37.51% | 49.60% | R+12.1 | R |
| 9 | 71.00% | 26.44% | D+44.6 | 61.37% | 24.12% | D+37.2 | D |
| 10 | 65.21% | 30.46% | D+34.8 | 56.93% | 31.21% | D+25.7 | D |
| 11 | 74.16% | 20.74% | D+53.4 | 69.71% | 18.46% | D+51.2 | D |
| 12 | 68.74% | 26.63% | D+42.1 | 61.46% | 27.69% | D+33.8 | D |
| 13 | 67.68% | 27.95% | D+39.7 | 59.39% | 27.06% | D+32.3 | D |
| 14 | 75.95% | 20.09% | D+55.9 | 65.37% | 23.23% | D+42.1 | D |
| 15 | 49.95% | 45.35% | D+4.6 | 48.43% | 38.84% | D+9.6 | R |
| 16 | 60.23% | 35.40% | D+24.8 | 54.22% | 33.06% | D+21.2 | D |
| 17 | 62.55% | 32.61% | D+29.9 | 57.98% | 29.63% | D+28.3 | D |
| 18 | 74.99% | 17.57% | D+57.4 | 73.69% | 13.64% | D+60.1 | D |
| 19 | 71.55% | 22.91% | D+48.6 | 67.73% | 20.05% | D+47.7 | D |
| 20 | 46.26% | 48.57% | R+2.3 | 45.05% | 41.13% | D+3.9 | R |
| 21 | 61.08% | 33.19% | D+27.9 | 53.96% | 31.12% | D+22.8 | D |
| 22 | 42.30% | 51.77% | R+9.5 | 40.33% | 46.60% | R+6.3 | R |
| 23 | 50.61% | 44.70% | D+5.9 | 47.86% | 39.71% | D+8.1 | D |
| 24 | 52.10% | 42.11% | D+10 | 47.19% | 36.79% | D+10.4 | D |
| 25 | 60.90% | 33.31% | D+27.6 | 57.03% | 28.81% | D+28.2 | D |
| 26 | 62.57% | 33.00% | D+29.6 | 55.12% | 32.19% | D+22.9 | D |
| 27 | 43.63% | 51.56% | R+7.9 | 43.86% | 42.63% | D+1.2 | R |
| 28 | 43.36% | 51.02% | R+7.7 | 43.31% | 42.27% | D+1 | R |
| 29 | 48.16% | 47.12% | D+1 | 45.04% | 41.24% | D+3.8 | R |
| 30 | 50.06% | 44.08% | D+6 | 47.75% | 37.01% | D+10.7 | R |
| 31 | 38.29% | 57.90% | R+19.6 | 41.78% | 45.91% | R+4.1 | R |
| 32 | 48.95% | 47.93% | D+1 | 43.90% | 47.34% | R+3.4 | D |
| 33 | 57.44% | 38.34% | D+19.1 | 55.59% | 32.01% | D+23.6 | D |
| 34 | 67.75% | 30.86% | D+36.9 | 64.65% | 28.49% | D+36.2 | D |
| 35 | 58.06% | 38.71% | D+19.3 | 54.23% | 34.26% | D+20 | D |
| 36 | 53.29% | 43.51% | D+9.8 | 49.35% | 39.28% | D+10.1 | D |
| 37 | 50.09% | 46.98% | D+3.1 | 49.32% | 39.69% | D+9.6 | D |
| 38 | 45.97% | 50.34% | R+4.4 | 39.87% | 49.90% | R+10 | R |
| 39 | 53.53% | 43.60% | D+9.9 | 48.95% | 41.86% | D+7.1 | D |
| 40 | 69.65% | 27.03% | D+42.6 | 60.30% | 28.99% | D+31.3 | D |
| 41 | 74.26% | 22.15% | D+52.1 | 64.48% | 23.77% | D+40.7 | D |
| 42 | 77.86% | 18.20% | D+59.7 | 69.70% | 18.34% | D+51.4 | D |
| 43 | 51.55% | 42.52% | D+9 | 51.63% | 31.90% | D+19.7 | D |
| 44 | 42.34% | 53.33% | R+11 | 38.87% | 48.14% | R+9.3 | R |
| 45 | 75.50% | 20.49% | D+55 | 71.68% | 19.09% | D+52.6 | D |
| 46 | 76.11% | 19.64% | D+56.5 | 72.91% | 17.80% | D+55.1 | D |
| 47 | 75.23% | 21.12% | D+54.1 | 75.51% | 16.95% | D+58.6 | D |
| 48 | 79.43% | 16.14% | D+63.3 | 76.07% | 15.07% | D+61 | D |
| 49 | 48.75% | 46.04% | D+2.7 | 39.56% | 48.03% | R+8.5 | R |
| 50 | 54.56% | 40.49% | D+14.1 | 49.33% | 40.67% | D+8.7 | D |
| 51 | 34.24% | 62.18% | R+27.9 | 29.61% | 60.13% | R+30.5 | R |
| 52 | 62.23% | 35.17% | D+27.1 | 62.07% | 29.79% | D+32.3 | D |
| 53 | 48.82% | 48.52% | D+0.3 | 48.39% | 41.93% | D+6.5 | R |
| 54 | 32.19% | 64.92% | R+32.7 | 25.69% | 66.62% | R+40.9 | R |
| 55 | 29.64% | 67.48% | R+37.8 | 24.35% | 67.91% | R+43.6 | R |
| 56 | 34.58% | 61.37% | R+26.8 | 29.21% | 61.10% | R+31.9 | R |
| 57 | 45.25% | 50.34% | R+5.1 | 39.99% | 46.81% | R+6.8 | R |
| 58 | 43.98% | 52.91% | R+8.9 | 36.58% | 53.06% | R+16.5 | R |
| 59 | 29.23% | 67.78% | R+38.5 | 23.93% | 67.65% | R+43.7 | R |
| 60 | 42.37% | 52.23% | R+9.9 | 38.93% | 47.35% | R+8.4 | R |
| 61 | 32.56% | 65.02% | R+32.5 | 29.95% | 62.63% | R+32.7 | R |
| 62 | 19.59% | 78.35% | R+58.8 | 18.39% | 74.53% | R+56.1 | R |
| 63 | 49.61% | 47.24% | D+2.4 | 36.71% | 51.26% | R+14.6 | D |
| 64 | 24.47% | 72.92% | R+48.5 | 20.65% | 70.74% | R+50.1 | R |
| 65 | 79.83% | 16.71% | D+63.1 | 67.22% | 16.91% | D+50.3 | D |
| 66 | 24.60% | 72.24% | R+47.6 | 21.08% | 69.94% | R+48.9 | R |
| 67 | 37.15% | 59.71% | R+22.6 | 27.94% | 62.43% | R+34.5 | R |
| 68 | 47.01% | 48.56% | R+1.5 | 43.56% | 42.91% | D+0.7 | R |
| 69 | 68.52% | 28.07% | D+40.4 | 56.03% | 29.07% | D+27 | D |
| 70 | 69.54% | 26.69% | D+42.9 | 60.23% | 28.91% | D+31.3 | D |
| Total | 52.99% | 42.84% | D+10.1 | 48.26% | 40.04% | D+8.2 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
See also
- New Mexico House of Representatives
- New Mexico State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2018
- New Mexico state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- New Mexico state legislative Republican primaries, 2018
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ New Mexico Secretary of State, "2018 Primary Election Contest/Candidate List," accessed March 19, 2018
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ Ballotpedia defines an incumbent as retiring if the incumbent did not file for office or filed for office but withdrew, was disqualified, or otherwise left a race in a manner other than losing the primary, primary runoff, or convention. If an incumbent runs as a write-in candidate, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring. If an incumbent runs in the same chamber for a different seat, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring.
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-21," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-26," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-21.1(C)," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-27," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-33," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-33," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-1," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-2(A)(1)," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-2(B)," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-2(B)(2)," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-45," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-51(C)," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-52(A)," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-36.1(B)," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-36.1(C)," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "1-8-66," accessed January April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-66(F)," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ New Mexico Election Code, "Chapter 1-8-66(A)," accessed April 23, 2025
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "2024 Legislator Compensation," August 21, 2024
- ↑ New Mexico Constitution, "Article IV, Section 4, accessed November 1, 2021
- ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ 270towin.com, "New Mexico," accessed August 8, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
