New Mexico State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 New Mexico Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | June 7, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
All 42 seats in the New Mexico State Senate were up for election in 2016. Democrats gained two seats in the November 2016 general election.
A Ballotpedia analysis identified the New Mexico State Senate as one of 20 battleground chambers in the November 2016 election. These are the chambers where one party might have, realistically, toppled the other party from its position of majority control. Democrats gained two seats and retained control of the chamber after the November 2016 election.
This election was one of Ballotpedia's top 10 state-level races in 2016.
Click here to read the full list.
Introduction
Elections for the New Mexico State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on June 7, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was March 8, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the New Mexico State Senate:
| New Mexico State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 24 | 26 | |
| Republican Party | 18 | 16 | |
| Total | 42 | 42 | |
Retired incumbents
The following incumbent senators did not seek re-election in 2016. Those incumbents are:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| John Ryan |  Republican |
Senate District 10 |
| Sue Beffort | Republican |
Senate District 19 |
Note: Sue Beffort resigned from the state Senate before the end of her term on July 29, 2016. James White (R) was appointed to the seat on September 9, 2016.
Context of the 2016 elections
The New Mexico State Senate was identified by the Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) as an offensive target in 2016. The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) and Republican Legislative Campaign Committee (RLCC) planned to spend $40 million on legislative races during the 2015-2016 election cycle.
The Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) named Senate District 9, Senate District 29, House District 24, and House District 32 in their "16 in '16: Races to Watch." Two of those seats, both in the Senate, involved an incumbent.[2][3]
Debbie Maestas, chair of the Republican Party of New Mexico, thought her party has a "window of opportunity" to take over the state Senate in 2016. If Republicans had flipped the state Senate and kept control of the state House, it would have been the first time since 1930 that Republicans have controlled both chambers and the governor's office. Maestas believed that a Republican trifecta would be beneficial to the state in relation legislation being passed. Maestas said, "With a Republican governor and having taken the House, if we can take the state Senate, then we have a good two-year window of opportunity to pass legislation that would help benefit New Mexico that we’ve never been able to do before. I shouldn’t say never. We haven’t been able to do it in the last 50 years. So this is really important. So we’ve been doing a lot of candidate recruitment."[4] Republicans need to only pick up a net gain of three seats to take over the state Senate.
Republicans targeted Democratic incumbents Daniel Ivey-Soto, John Sapien, William P. Soules, and Michael Sanchez in 2016.[4] Since the state's Senate seats are only up for election every four years, they are up during presidential election years, which tends to benefit Democrats more than in off-year elections.[5]
2016 election competitiveness
New Mexico sees a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well New Mexico performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the New Mexico State Senate, there were 24 Democratic incumbents and 18 Republican incumbents. Four incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were no incumbents that faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 33 Democratic incumbents and 37 Republican incumbents. Five state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were no incumbents that faced primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in New Mexico can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified seven notable New Mexico state primary races in 2016, three of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable New Mexico races »
Primary contests
- The Democratic incumbent faced a former senator who had become a Republican in 2008.
- ☑ Mimi Stewart (Inc.) ☐ Shannon Robinson
- Four Republicans competed for the open seat left by the Republican incumbent.
- ☐ Anthony L. Thornton ☐ Herb A. Gadberry ☑ James White ☐ James R. Wilder
- The Democratic incumbent faced a former state representative.
General election contests
Ballotpedia identified 13 notable New Mexico state general election races in 2016, six of which were state Senate contests.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable New Mexico races »
- The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent in a closely divided district.
- ☑ John Sapien (Inc.) ☐ Diego Espinoza
- The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent.
- ☑ Daniel Ivey-Soto (Inc.) ☐ Eric Burton
- The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent.
- ☐ Michael Sanchez (Inc.) ☑ Gregory A. Baca
- The Republican incumbent faced a Democratic opponent.
- ☑ Jeff Steinborn ☐ Lee Cotter (Inc.)
- The Democratic incumbent faced a Republican opponent.
- ☑ William P. Soules (Inc.) ☐ Cecelia H. Levatino
- An appointed Republican incumbent ran for a full term.
- ☑ Liz Stefanics ☐ Ted Barela (Inc.)
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 New Mexico Senate candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Rebecca Morgan: 4,834 | William Sharer: 11,170 (I)  |
|
| 2 | No candidate | Steven Neville: 15,057 (I) |
|
| 3 | John Pinto: 12,519 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 4 | George Munoz: 12,029 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Richard Martinez: 15,535 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 6 | Carlos Cisneros: 17,697 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 7 | No candidate | Pat Woods: 12,778 (I) |
|
| 8 | Pete Campos: 14,258 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 9 | John Sapien: 12,727 (I) |
Diego Espinoza: 12,529 | |
| 10 | David J. Simon: 10,151 | Candace Ruth Gould: 10,530 |
|
| 11 | Linda Lopez: 8,776 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 12 | Jerry Ortiz y Pino: 12,922 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 13 | William O'Neill: 14,089 (I) |
A. Blair Dunn: 7,294 | |
| 14 | Michael Padilla: 9,668 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 15 | Daniel Ivey-Soto: 11,321 (I) |
Eric Burton: 8,981 | |
| 16 | Cisco McSorley: 16,721 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 17 | Mimi Stewart: 8,456 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18 | Bill G. Tallman: 12,203 |
Lisa Torraco: 11,750 (I) | |
| 19 | Harold W. Murphree: 9,415 | James White: 14,905 (I) |
|
| 20 | No candidate | William Payne: 16,893 (I) |
|
| 21 | Gregory B. Frazier: 11,087 | Mark Moores: 14,164 (I) |
|
| 22 | Benny Shendo: 12,472 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 23 | Joy I. Garratt: 11,001 | Sander Rue: 11,794 (I) |
|
| 24 | Nancy Rodriguez: 16,155 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 25 | Peter Wirth: 26,958 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 26 | Jacob Candelaria: 11,330 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 27 | No candidate | Stuart Ingle: 12,589 (I) |
|
| 28 | Howie Morales: 15,063 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 29 | Michael Sanchez: 7,348 (I) | Gregory A. Baca: 8,965 |
|
| 30 | Clemente Sanchez: 11,973 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 31 | Joseph Cervantes: 9,443 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 32 | No candidate | Cliff R. Pirtle: 8,480 (I) |
|
| 33 | No candidate | Bill Burt: 14,648 (I) |
|
| 34 | No candidate | Ron Griggs: 11,542 (I) |
|
| 35 | John Arthur Smith: 12,502 (I) |
No candidate | |
| 36 | Jeff Steinborn: 10,579 |
Lee Cotter: 7,158 (I) | |
| 37 | William P. Soules: 11,374 (I) |
Cecelia H. Levatino: 9,131 | |
| 38 | Mary Kay Papen: 9,588 (I) |
Charles R. Wendler: 4,713 | |
| 39 | Liz Stefanics: 9,622 |
Ted Barela: 9,250 (I) | |
| 40 | Linda Sanchez Allison: 10,099 | Craig Brandt: 12,490 (I) |
|
| 41 | No candidate | Carroll Leavell: 9,006 (I) |
|
| 42 | No candidate | Gay Kernan: 15,206 (I) |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the New Mexico State Senate in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 42 races in the New Mexico State Senate in 2016, 15 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 14.2 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[6]
| Republican candidates in the New Mexico State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Republicans won 16 races. In the seven races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 14.3 percent. Democrats won 26 races in 2016. In the eight races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 14 percent. |
| Democratic candidates and Republican candidates both won three races with margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Six of the 15 contested races in 2016—40 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Five races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats and Republicans each won three races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
New Mexico State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 9 D 0.8 percent District 10 R 1.8 percent District 18 D 1.9 percent District 23 R 3.5 percent District 29 R 9.9 percent District 39 D 2.0 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the New Mexico State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 37 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 10 winning New Mexico State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 17.8 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the New Mexico State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. 23 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the five races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 17.8 percent. 14 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the five races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 17.7 percent. |
New Mexico State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[7] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[7] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 26 14.0 percent 23 17.8 percent 18 18 69.2 percent Republican 16 14.3 percent 14 17.7 percent 9 9 56.3 percent Total 42 14.2 percent 37 17.8 percent 27 27 64.3 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in New Mexico State Senate districts in 2016.
| New Mexico State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 39.6 percent |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 3 | D | Unopposed |
| District 4 | D | Unopposed |
| District 5 | D | Unopposed |
| District 6 | D | Unopposed |
| District 7 | R | Unopposed |
| District 8 | D | Unopposed |
| District 9 | D | 0.8 percent |
| District 10 | R | 1.8 percent |
| District 11 | D | Unopposed |
| District 12 | D | Unopposed |
| District 13 | D | 31.8 percent |
| District 14 | D | Unopposed |
| District 15 | D | 11.5 percent |
| District 16 | D | Unopposed |
| District 17 | D | Unopposed |
| District 18 | D | 1.9 percent |
| District 19 | R | 22.6 percent |
| District 20 | R | Unopposed |
| District 21 | R | 12.2 percent |
| District 22 | D | Unopposed |
| District 23 | R | 3.5 percent |
| District 24 | D | Unopposed |
| District 25 | D | Unopposed |
| District 26 | D | Unopposed |
| District 27 | R | Unopposed |
| District 28 | D | Unopposed |
| District 29 | R | 9.9 percent |
| District 30 | D | Unopposed |
| District 31 | D | Unopposed |
| District 32 | R | Unopposed |
| District 33 | R | Unopposed |
| District 34 | R | Unopposed |
| District 35 | D | Unopposed |
| District 36 | D | 19.3 percent |
| District 37 | D | 10.9 percent |
| District 38 | D | 34.1 percent |
| District 39 | D | 2.0 percent |
| District 40 | R | 10.6 percent |
| District 41 | R | Unopposed |
| District 42 | R | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: New Mexico elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in New Mexico in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| February 2, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for major party candidates for federal and statewide office | |
| March 8, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for major party candidates for all other offices | |
| April 11, 2016 | Campaign finance | First primary report due | |
| May 9, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second primary report due | |
| June 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | Third primary report due | |
| June 7, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| June 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Filing deadline for independent and minor party candidates | |
| July 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | Fourth primary report due | |
| September 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | First general report due | |
| October 10, 2016 | Campaign finance | Second general report due | |
| November 3, 2016 | Campaign finance | Third general report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | Fourth general report due | |
| Sources: New Mexico Secretary of State, "2016 Election FAQ's," accessed June 12, 2015 New Mexico Secretary of State, "Campaign Finance Reporting Schedule," accessed August 7, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 27 of the 42 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of 18 Democrats and 9 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 15 (36 percent) of the 42 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
Four incumbents faced primary competition on June 7. One incumbent did not seek re-election and another 37 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
One incumbent, a Republican, did not run for re-election, while 41 ran for re-election. A second incumbent, Sue Beffort (R), did not seek re-election, but she resigned before the end of her term and a new member was appointed to the seat.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details New Mexico's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| New Mexico Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 15.7% | 11.9% | 45.7% | 24.4 | 34 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in New Mexico in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[8]
| New Mexico State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2012 | 94 | $5,422,841 |
| 2008 | 77 | $4,678,999 |
Qualifications
Article 4, Section 3 of the New Mexico Constitution states: "Senators shall not be less than twenty-five years of age and representatives not less than twenty-one years of age at the time of their election. If any senator or representative permanently removes his residence from or maintains :No Residence in the district from which he was elected, then he shall be deemed to have resigned and his successor shall be selected as provided in Section 4 of this article. No person shall be eligible to serve in the legislature who, at the time of qualifying, holds any office of trust or profit with the state, county or national governments, except notaries public and officers of the militia who receive no salary."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Announces First Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch”," accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ Republican State Leadership Committee, "RSLC Releases Second Round of “16 in ’16: Races to Watch”," accessed October 5, 2016
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Roswell Daily Record, "GOP reaching to control Statehouse," accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ NM Political Report, "NM GOP chair highlights four Senate targets," accessed September 13, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in New Mexico," accessed July 28, 2015
