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New York's 11th Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Republican primary)

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New York's 11th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
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Election details
Filing deadline: April 12, 2018
Primary: June 26, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Dan Donovan (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. (general elections); primary times vary by county
Voting in New York
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Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+3
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U.S. Rep. Dan Donovan (R) defeated former incumbent Michael Grimm (R) in the 2018 Republican party primary for U.S. House in New York's 11th Congressional District.

Grimm was hoping to reclaim the Staten Island congressional seat he held for two terms from the man who replaced him.

Grimm resigned in 2015 after pleading guilty to felony tax evasion. Donovan won a special election to replace him and was re-elected in 2016.

Personal attacks defined the race, with Donovan calling Grimm "the convict congressman" and Grimm calling Donovan "Desperate Dan."[1]

Beyond the attacks, Grimm and Donovan tried to define themselves as the true Trump candidate.[2] Trump endorsed Donovan on May 30, saying Donovan was more likely to hold the seat in the general election.

Grimm criticized Donovan for voting against the Republican plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and legislation to strip sanctuary cities (such as New York City) of federal funding.

Donovan criticized Grimm for his votes in favor of bilateral trade agreements while he served in Congress, painting Grimm’s record as out of sync with the president’s agenda. Donovan also said Grimm was trying to take advantage of Trump's popularity in the District even though he did not support Trump in 2016.

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the state's Conservative and Reform parties, and the New York AFL-CIO endorsed Donovan.[3][4] Satellite groups allied with Donovan—including the business-aligned U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the moderate Defending Main Street Super PAC, and the pro-Trump America First Action—spent over $1 million supporting him.

Former Trump administration officials Steve Bannon and Anthony Scaramucci endorsed Grimm.[5][6]

Polling showed a variety of possible outcomes. A public poll from Siena College found Grimm leading Donovan 47 percent to 37 percent. However, the poll was conducted before Trump endorsed Donovan on May 30.

Internal polls were more divergent. In April 2018, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released a poll showing Grimm leading by 10 points. Donovan's campaign dismissed the poll, saying, “Of course the DCCC is desperate for Michael Grimm because they know he has zero shot of winning in November.”[7]

A late June survey from a Republican firm with ties to Donovan found him leading Grimm 47 percent to 40 percent.[8]

According to Roll Call, the last time a person with a criminal conviction was elected to the U.S. House was 1928.[9]

The district voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2012 and Donald Trump (R) in 2016.


New York voter? Dates you need to know.
Primary electionJune 26, 2018
Candidate filing deadlineApril 12, 2018
Registration deadlineJune 1, 2018
Absentee application deadlineJune 19, 2018 (by mail), June 25, 2018 (in-person)
General electionNovember 6, 2018
Voting information
Primary typeClosed
Early voting deadlineJune 25, 2018 (by mail), June 26, 2018 (in-person)
Polling locations: Go to this page to find early voting locations and your assigned precinct for election day.


For more on related elections, please see:


Candidates and election results

Incumbent Daniel Donovan defeated Michael Grimm in the Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 11 on June 26, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 11

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Daniel Donovan
Daniel Donovan
 
62.9
 
13,515
Image of Michael Grimm
Michael Grimm
 
37.1
 
7,957

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 21,472
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Election updates

Candidate forums

  • June 14, 2018: The candidates met in a second debate. See full coverage here and here.
  • June 11, 2018: The candidates met in a debate. See full coverage here.

Endorsements

  • June 25, 2018: Donald Trump Jr. recorded a robocall supporting Dan Donovan.[10]
  • June 17, 2018: The Staten Island Advance endorsed Dan Donovan.
  • May 30, 2018: President Donald Trump endorsed Dan Donovan.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
  • June 21, 2018: A poll from Remington Research Group, which was tied to Donovan's campaign, found him leading Grimm 47 percent to 40 percent.
  • May 31, 2018: A Siena College/NY1 poll found that Michael Grimm led Dan Donovan 47 percent to 37 percent with 16 percent of voters undecided.
  • April 11, 2018: The DCCC released a poll showing Michael Grimm leading Dan Donovan 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent of voters undecided.

Campaign finance

  • March 31, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures in March 2018 showed the following:
    • Dan Donovan had raised nearly $1.2 million and had about $740,000 in cash-on-hand.
    • Michael Grimm had raised nearly $370,000 and had about $360,000 in cash-on-hand.

Satellite spending

  • June 18, 2018: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent $350,000 on television ads supporting Dan Donovan.
  • June 14-16, 2018: American First Action spent about $60,000 supporting Dan Donovan.

Reaction to the outcome

  • President Donald Trump (R): "Tremendous win for Congressman Dan Donovan. You showed great courage in a tough race! New York, and my many friends on Staten Island, have elected someone they have always been very proud of. Congratulations!"[11]
  • Michael Grimm said, “I guess the president’s endorsement meant more than I thought” in a concession speech where he endorsed Dan Donovan for the general election.[12]
  • New York Post: "Donovan’s win puts a large feather in the cap of the borough’s GOP establishment, which came out hard for the longtime Staten Island pol — and against the convicted-tax cheat."[13]
  • New York Times: "Mr. Donovan did everything he could to yoke himself to Mr. Trump. He printed lawn signs melding versions of their campaign logos. He mentioned the president’s backing at every turn. He even paid for a mobile billboard to drive through Staten Island featuring a picture of himself with Mr. Trump, and the words from Mr. Trump’s endorsement tweet printed in large, block lettering: “Dan has my full endorsement!” It clearly worked."[14]

Candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018


Dan Donovan

Daniel Donovan (NY).jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Incumbent Dan Donovan was first elected to the 11th Congressional District in a May 2015 special election to replace Michael Grimm, who resigned after pleading guilty to felony tax evasion. This was his first competitive primary as he was unopposed in his 2016 re-election campaign. He was endorsed by President Donald Trump (R), House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the New York AFL-CIO, the New York Reform Party, and the New York Conservative Party.

Although Donovan was aligned with President Donald Trump on trade policy and he filed a bill requiring local post offices to display Trump's portrait, he voted against the Republican plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and legislation that would strip sanctuary jurisdictions (such as New York City) of federal funding.[15]

Donovan ran to be New York's attorney general in 2010 and lost in the general election. He served as the prosecutor for Richmond County, where he handled the nationally prominent case of Eric Garner, where an unarmed black man died during a confrontation with a police officer. He was criticized by groups like the National Action Network for his handling of the Garner case during his 2015 run for Congress.[16]

Donovan received his B.A. from St. John's University and his J.D. from Fordham University.

Michael Grimm

Michael Grimm.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Michael Grimm is a former member of Congress who was first elected in 2010 and served until January 2015, when he resigned after pleading guilty to felony tax evasion. Grimm spent seven months in prison in 2016. He ran for his old seat by emphasizing his support for President Donald Trump, highlighting his record while in Congress, particularly on the response to Hurricane Sandy, and criticizing his replacement, Dan Donovan, for voting against Trump's positions on healthcare and sanctuary jurisdictions. When Grimm served in the House, he was ranked by National Journal as one of the most ideologically centrist members and worked with the nonpartisan group No Labels.[17]

Grimm was endorsed by former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon when he announced his bid in October 2017.[5] He was later endorsed by former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci.[6]

Before serving in Congress, Grimm worked as an FBI agent, served in the U.S. Marine Corps during the Persian Gulf War, worked on Wall Street, and was in the restaurant business. He received his B.B.A. from Baruch College in 1994 and his J.D. from New York Law School.


List of candidates

Republican Party Republican primary candidates

Timeline

  • June 25, 2018: Donald Trump Jr. recorded a robocall supporting Dan Donovan.[10]
  • June 21, 2018: A poll from Remington Research Group, which was tied to Donovan's campaign, found him leading Grimm 47 percent to 40 percent.
  • June 18, 2018: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent $350,000 on television ads supporting Dan Donovan.
  • June 17, 2018: The Staten Island Advance endorsed Dan Donovan.
  • June 14-16, 2018: American First Action spent about $60,000 supporting Dan Donovan.
  • June 14, 2018: The candidates met in a second debate. See full coverage here and here.
  • June 11, 2018: The candidates met in a debate. See full coverage here.
  • June 10, 2018: The New York Post endorsed Dan Donovan.
  • May 31, 2018: A Siena College/NY1 poll found that Michael Grimm led Dan Donovan 47 percent to 37 percent with 16 percent of voters undecided.
  • May 30, 2018: President Donald Trump endorsed Dan Donovan.
  • May 18, 2018: Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani endorsed Dan Donovan.
  • April 30, 2018: Former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci endorsed Michael Grimm.
  • April 12, 2018: The New York AFL-CIO endorsed Dan Donovan.
  • April 11, 2018: The DCCC released a poll showing Michael Grimm leading Dan Donovan 49 percent to 39 percent with 12 percent of voters undecided.
  • March 31, 2018: Campaign finance disclosures in March 2018 showed the following:
    • Dan Donovan had raised nearly $1.2 million and had about $740,000 in cash-on-hand.
    • Michael Grimm had raised nearly $370,000 and had about $360,000 in cash-on-hand.
  • October 11, 2018: House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) endorsed Dan Donovan.
  • October 5, 2018: Former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon endorsed Michael Grimm.

Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Public polls

New York 11th District Republican Primary
Poll Poll sponsor Dan Donovan Michael GrimmUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
NY1/Siena College Research Institute
May 29-31, 2018		NY1 37%47%16%+/-4.3513
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Internal polls

New York 11th District Republican Primary
Poll Poll sponsor Dan Donovan Michael GrimmUndecidedMargin of errorSample size
Remington Research Group
June 20-21, 2018		No official campaign sponsor[18] 47%40%13%+/-3.7703
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
April 9-11, 2018		DCCC 39%49%12%+/-4.9404
Big Dog Strategies for Grimm campaign
March 4-6, 2018		Grimm campaign 34%35%31%+/-4.57446
Barry Zeplowitz & Associates for Donovan campaign
Unknown		Donovan campaign 60%21%19%+/-4.9400
AVERAGES 45% 36.25% 18.75% +/-4.52 488.25
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign finance


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Daniel Donovan Republican Party $2,605,455 $2,694,356 $97,462 As of December 31, 2018
Michael DeVito Jr. Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Zach Emig Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Radhakrishna Mohan Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Max Rose Democratic Party $4,679,140 $4,441,148 $237,992 As of December 31, 2018
Paul Sperling Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Omar Vaid Democratic Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Michael Grimm Republican Party $478,170 $500,578 $30,119 As of December 31, 2018
Henry Bardel Green Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Satellite spending

  • America First Action spent about $155,000 supporting Dan Donovan between June 14 and June 21.[19]
  • Defending Main Street Super PAC had spent about $186,000 as of June 20, with about $174,000 in support of Dan Donovan and about $12,000 opposing Michael Grimm.[19]
  • New Yorkers for Excellent Health Care had spent about $340,000 in support of Dan Donovan as of June 22.[19]
  • The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent $350,000 on television ads supporting Dan Donovan on June 18.[19]

Endorsements

Do you know of an official or organization that endorsed a candidate in this race? Let Ballotpedia know by email at editor@ballotpedia.org.

Republican candidate endorsements
Endorsement Date Donovan Grimm
Individuals
President Donald Trump (R)[3] May 30, 2018 ✔
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani[20] May 18, 2018 ✔
Former White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci[6] April 30, 2018 ✔
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)[21] October 11, 2017 ✔
Former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon[5] October 5, 2017 ✔
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)[22] Unknown ✔
House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.)[22] Unknown ✔
Former U.S. Rep. Guy Molinari (R)[23] Unknown ✔
Organizations
Staten Island Advance[24] June 17, 2018 ✔
New York Post[25] June 10, 2018 ✔
Patrolmen's Benevolent Association[26] June 5, 2018 ✔
New York AFL-CIO[27] April 12, 2018 ✔
Richmond County Independence Party[28] February 28, 2018 ✔
New York Reform Party[29] February 26, 2018 ✔
Staten Island Republican Party[30] February 22, 2018 ✔
New York Conservative Party[31] February 14, 2018 ✔

How did the candidates differ?

2017 tax bill

In December 2017, Congressional Republicans passed the the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

  • Republican Party Dan Donovan voted against the bill and said he opposed because it capped the state and local income tax deduction at $10,000. He said the deduction cap negatively impacted his constituents.[32]
  • Republican Party Michael Grimm said he would have supported the tax bill.[32]

Campaign strategies and tactics

Support for Donald Trump and his policies

Michael Grimm made his support for President Donald Trump and his agenda the cornerstone of his campaign. He has called Dan Donovan "the Republican New York congressman with the most anti-Trump voting record," pointing to his opposition to the Republican plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and to legislation stripping sanctuary jurisdictions of federal funding.[27]

After Grimm challenged him, Donovan introduced legislation that would require portraits of Trump and Vice President Mike Pence to be displayed at post offices and that would strip sanctuary jurisdictions of State Criminal Alien Assistance Program grant dollars.[33][34]

Donovan also supported Trump's efforts to impose tariffs on Chinese products and criticized Grimm for supporting bilateral trade deals with Columbia and South Korea while in Congress.

"Working with President Trump, we are undoing the damage of the unfair trade deals my opponent voted for that have hurt our economy," Donovan said. "I will always put American jobs and American workers first."[27]

In response, Grimm said, “I am pleased to see President Trump taking the bold, decisive action we have so sorely lacked over the course of the Obama Administration. Protecting America’s workers and businesses was always my first priority in Congress, and I broke with the Washington establishment when early on I led the pushback against the disastrous Trans-Pacific Partnership."[35]

Donovan also said Grimm was trying to take advantage of Trump's popularity even though he did not support him during the 2016 presidential campaign.[1]

On May 30, President Trump tweeted his support for Donovan. He said, "There is no one better to represent the people of N.Y. and Staten Island (a place I know very well) than @RepDanDonovan, who is strong on Borders & Crime, loves our Military & our Vets, voted for Tax Cuts and is helping me to Make America Great Again. Dan has my full endorsement! ... Very importantly, @RepDanDonovan will win for the Republicans in November...and his opponent will not. Remember Alabama. We can't take any chances on losing to a Nancy Pelosi controlled Democrat!"

Donovan did not vote for the 2017 Republican tax bill. In a statement on the bill that came out of a conference committee, Donovan said, " With the state and local tax deduction nearly eliminated, this tax bill doesn't equal relief for far too many New Yorkers. It is still paid for by the middle-class families of Staten Island and Brooklyn."[36]

Following Trump's endorsement of Donovan, Grimm said, “Out of respect for the president, I wouldn’t advise him to get involved in House primaries because you either upset the grassroots or the entrenched establishment, making it a no-win situation.”[37]

He also said, “If I was legitimately advising the president, which I’m not, but if I was, I would say, ‘Stay out of a race like this because I don’t see how it would benefit him to get into such a contentious race.’ By going into the race, he puts himself in a situation where he’s going to lose.”[38]

Donovan's stance on immigration

On June 1, 2018, Pablo Villavicencio was detained while delivering a pizza at United States Army Garrison Fort Hamilton in New York. He did not have a valid Department of Defense identification, which led officials at the base to discover that he was living in the country without legal permission. After his detainment, media outlets began reporting on the situation and The Legal Aid Society began to represent him.[39]

Donovan criticized the reaction to Villavicencio's detainment. He released a statement saying, "This is just more insanity. Liberal activists are attacking ICE agents and military personnel for following the law in detaining an immigrant reportedly here illegally."[40]

Later in June, Donovan sent out a mailer emphasizing his opposition to illegal immigration. According to Brooklyn Daily, the mailer displayed "a police shield stamped with a graphic of a family with a young child holding hands, seemingly running across a United States border, and a red X striking through it."

Grimm and liberal groups criticized the mailer. Grimm's campaign said, "To compensate for his record supporting amnesty and Sanctuary Cities, Dan Donovan has now decided to make a mockery of President Trump’s common-sense policies. When Republicans advocate for building the Wall or cracking down on illegal immigration, we’re not doing it out of racism or hatred — we do it out of a concern for our national security and a desire to have secure, sovereign borders. Donovan’s desperate, hypocritical messaging makes him look ridiculous while playing into the Left’s worst stereotypes of the America First agenda President Trump and I believe in.”[41]

Grimm vs. Donovan

The primary involved personal attacks. For example, Grimm referred to Donovan as "Desperate Dan," while Donovan called Grimm "the convict congressman." The sections below detail further instances where personal issues rather than policies divided the candidates or created conflict.[1]

Alleged pardon request

At a debate on June 11, Grimm alleged that Donovan had offered to help him secure a pardon from President Trump if Grimm did not challenge him in the primary.

Donovan said that Grimm was lying. He said he had asked Trump about a pardon for Grimm but only as a favor for former U.S. Rep. Guy Molinari (R), an ally of Donovan and Grimm prior to the campaign. Donovan said he cut off contact with Molinari after he endorsed Grimm in the primary.

Donovan said Trump decided to not consider the pardon after Donovan told him that Molinari opposed him during the 2016 presidential campaign and that Trump's aides referred him to the office that handled pardons.

Grimm said that he went to Donovan's house after he talked to Trump. He said to Donovan: “You hugged me, you kissed me. You even had a piece of paper and said, 'I spoke to [Trump’s] staff.’”

Donovan said the only piece of paper he handed Grimm was the contact information for the pardon office.[42]

Squire Patton Boggs

At a debate on June 14, Donovan claimed that Grimm was lobbied by the law firm Squire Patton Boggs while serving in Congress even though Grimm had retained the firm during an investigation into his campaign fundraising practices.

According to NY1, the Elk Association, a client of Squire Patton Boggs, had emailed Grimm asking him to help the group solve an issue it had with the Small Business Association. The group eventually resolved the issue and emailed Grimm's office to thank him.

In 2017, Grimm and Squire Patton Boggs reached a settlement on legal fees he owed the firm. Under the settlement, Grimm's legal fees were dropped from $420,000 to $25,000, pending approval by the Federal Elections Commission (FEC).

Grimm said that Donovan's claims of an improper relationship with Squire Patton Boggs and the Elk Association were untrue and that the FEC had made the deal that decreased his legal fees, not him.[43]

Ethics complaint against Donovan

In April 2018, Donovan accused Grimm of filing an ethics complaint against him claiming that he improperly intervened when his domestic partner's son, Timothy O’Connell, was arrested for heroin possession in 2015.[2]

“I was a prosecutor for 20 years,” Donovan said. “But you don’t have to be a prosecutor to figure out that weeks before my primary against my opponent, something that allegedly — falsely, but allegedly — occurred 27 months ago comes out now.”[2]

Grimm denied filing the complaint and added, “Donovan could put this scandal to bed once and for all by releasing his, his girlfriend’s and his chief of staff’s cell phone records from the night of O’Connell’s heroin bust to prove he had no knowledge of involvement in the case."[44]

Reform Party filing error

In April 2018, Grimm campaign operative Joe Shikhman filed a voter petition for Donovan to appear on the ballot line for the Reform Party after the Donovan campaign filed the original voter petition. This potentially put Donovan in violation of filing rule that could have resulted in his name being removed from the Reform Party line.

According to Frank Morano of the Staten Island Reform Party, "[The Grimm campaign did] this in the hopes that it triggers some bizarre arcane technicality to have Donovan thrown off the ballot. It's a deliberate attempt at fraud and it's outrageous."

Morano said he would take the matter to the police and Donovan's campaign agreed that it could have been illegal.

A statement from Grimm's campaign said, "Dan Donovan’s absurd allegations of illegality once again reflect the incompetence and failings of his own campaign. Since Donovan was frantically seeking paid help to get his signatures, we thought we’d help him out for free. You’d think he would be more grateful."[45]

Grimm later said that a campaign worker filed the petition without his knowledge. He said, “I didn't know about it until after it happened. If you would have told me he was doing it, I would have told him not to because it’s just not worth it because I don't really like to play petty little games.”[1]

On May 1, the New York City Board of Elections voted to refer the issue to federal, state, and local prosecutors.[46]

Grimm's criminal record

On April 16, the Donovan campaign launched grimmreality.org which highlighted the tax evasion charges that Grimm pled guilty to in 2015. The website called Grimm a "serial liar and con man who will do or say anything to get what he wants" and called for him to release his 2017 tax returns.

"Not surprising that Desperate Dan resorts to slander to distract from his own failed stint in Congress," Grimm said. "Everyone knows I hired a few delivery boys off the books and was politically prosecuted by the Obama Justice Department for a violation other business owners get fined for, but that doesn't change the fact that I was a much more effective member of Congress."

Grimm declined to release his 2017 tax returns, saying, "I'll be happy to release my tax returns when Dan has his first substantive bill signed into law or starts supporting our president when it actually matters."[47]

Donovan released his tax returns in April 2018. In response, Grimm said, "It's not required by the FEC, so it's just a stunt by Donovan. He is releasing his taxes like he is doing something."

"He is hiding behind the fact that he doesn't want to release his taxes because he is hiding something, just like he hid things from our community during the 2014 election," Donovan said. "The public should demand from this man for him to release his taxes."[48]

Campaign advertisements

Dan Donovan

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce released this television ad supporting Dan Donovan on June 18.

"Support Dan Donovan in NY-11," released June 18, 2018

Dan Donovan began running the following TV ad on May 21.[49]

"Standing Tough with President Trump," released May 17, 2018

Dan Donovan began airing the following radio ad on April 24.[50]

"60: Convict Congressman," released April 24, 2018

Michael Grimm

Michael Grimm began airing the following television on Fox News on June 2. The $30,000 buy was set to go through June 24.[51]

"Donovan Says NO to Trump," released June 1, 2018

Campaign themes and stances

Dan Donovan

Donovan’s campaign website stated the following:

“

Transportation
Improving transportation for the 11th congressional district is one of my top priorities in Washington. Staten Islanders have the longest commute in the country and the residents of south Brooklyn don’t have it much better. After a long-fought battle, we worked in a bipartisan manner to pass the most comprehensive transit bill in years. The bill was a big victory for New York City with funding for many of the City’s top transit priorities, including stable mass transit dollars and more money for the Staten Island ferry. But our work is not done. I am continuing to fight for new transportation projects like the West Shore Light Rail and Bus Rapid Transit.

Taxes/Economy
The middle-class is getting squeezed. Washington’s out-of-control spending has driven taxes and the cost of living through the roof, and too many New Yorkers are still unemployed or underemployed. It’s time to start making the federal government more accountable. We need to cut taxes and reform the burdensome regulations that are killing jobs and economic growth. Reforming the tax code to make it flatter and simpler, peeling back excessive regulations and creating a balanced budget will spark the economy and unleash the entrepreneurial spirit.

Hurricane Sandy
The people of the 11th congressional district suffered catastrophic damage from Superstorm Sandy. Almost four years later, people are still not in their homes. This is simply unacceptable. When I got to Washington, the first bill I introduced was to reform FEMA. This signature legislation, the Flood Insurance Mitigation and Policyholder Protection Act (FIMPPA) addresses fraudulent engineering practices, flawed appeals process and overdue flood insurance reforms for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). I’m proud that this bill passed the House and now we’re working to get it through the Senate. This legislation will go a long way toward protecting homeowners in the event of a future storm so they never have to go through a broken process again.

Homeland Security
Fifteen years after the worst attack on our nation, the threat of terrorism is just as real and New York City continues to be our enemies’ number one target. Earlier this year I was appointed to the influential position as Chairman of the House Subcommittee on Emergency Preparedness, Response and Communication. In that role, I’m responsible for overseeing the federal government’s disaster response and instituting policies that keep our communities secure. When President Obama proposed drastic cuts to homeland security funding, I fought to get them successfully restored, ensuring New York City has the resources it needs to be protected. We must also secure our borders and enhance intelligence operations that are critical to tracking and preventing terrorist activity.

Foreign Affairs
This is a volatile time for the world, particularly in the Middle East. ISIS is growing bolder, Iran is on a path to nuclear proliferation and Russian aggression is increasing. All of this is a huge threat to world safety. America must be a leader on the world stage. We need to maintain and strengthen our defense system and stand by our allies. We must listen to our military leaders to develop a real strategy to defeat ISIS once and for all.

Education
Providing our children with a quality education–regardless of their zip code– is one of the most important things we can do to put them on a path to success. Unfortunately, too many kids are being failed by our education system. I support giving parents more school choice and repealing Common Core, which has been a disaster for both teachers and students. We can, and must improve standards, but there is a better way. I will also work to help our students facing the crushing cost of higher education. As someone who paid off my final student loan at 52, I understand how difficult the cost of college is for many families. We need to empower students and families to make informed decisions, streamline and improve student aid, and protect the 529 plan that helps parents save for their child’s higher education.

Healthcare Reform
We need reform of our healthcare system that truly lowers costs and delivers better care. I believe that people should be able to choose their own doctors and a health care plan that works for their needs. Sadly, Obamacare did not accomplish that. Obamacare has caused premiums to go up an average of 5% for New Yorkers, while many people have lost their doctors and are paying more out-of-pocket. Obamacare also puts unnecessary burdens on small businesses, who are being forced to hire less people because of mandated costs. We should keep the positive aspects of the law, like prohibiting insurance companies from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions and allowing children to stay on their parent’s plan until age 26, while reforming other parts like medical malpractice and increasing competition by allowing people to purchase insurance across state lines. These reforms would have a tremendous impact on actually lowering healthcare costs, while allowing people more choices for their healthcare needs.

Veterans
We owe an enormous debt of gratitude to the men and women in the armed services. Too often, the sacrifice they made on behalf of our nation is forgotten when they return home. The scandals that rocked the Veterans Administration are a stain on our nation. Our veterans deserve quality care near their home. I support the Veterans Healthcare Choice Improvement Act, which provides necessary funding to the VA to avert the potential for medical services cuts and hospital closures. The bill also provides up to $500 million for lifesaving Hepatitis C treatments for our veterans.

Local Labor Force
Just as I have as district attorney, I will fight relentlessly against cuts to law enforcement resources and take a strong stand for New York’s labor force. The NYPD and FDNY, along with other law enforcement agents and first responders are the finest in the nation. I will work to support fair and competitive wages, as well as fair work agreements, which protect our law enforcement agents, teachers, unions and their families. I have opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and voted against granting the President fast-track authority. I will continue to fight against any trade deals that harm American jobs. [52]

”
—Dan Donovan’s campaign website (2018)[53]

Michael Grimm

Grimm’s campaign website stated the following:

“

Thank you for stopping by my web site. Wherever I go in our district, on Staten Island or in Brooklyn, I tell folks – don't worry, I've got your back. This is not a trite platitude, but rather a solemn promise to work hard to consistently deal with the issues that matter most to you, your family, or your small business. Your priorities are my priorities with the biggest challenges being as important as the smallest. Having served in combat with the Marines and as an FBI Agent, I have the experience, leadership and resolve to not only fight for real solutions, but the effectiveness to deliver them.

It’s time to put America First and support our President to grow the economy, create jobs, increase all Americans’ quality of life and prosperity, and secure our borders once and for all. Together we can and will tackle the opioid epidemic that is tearing apart our community. We’ll finally attain the transportation infrastructure needed to reduce the ridiculous traffic here at home and we’ll provide for our seniors and veterans ensuring they have the health care and benefits they have earned and deserve.

As your Congressman, I took my job very personally, understanding from Day One that your problem was mine to resolve and that I work for you. I'm very proud of the work we did together and the mountains I know we will be able to move in the future. I literally mean every word when I say I've got your back. [52]

”
—Michael Grimm’s campaign website (2018)[54]


Media coverage

  • David Marcus, The Federalist (May 23, 2018): "When Michael Grimm resigned from Congress after having been convicted of federal crimes, it seemed clear it was the end of a once-promising political career for the onetime congressman. Even in New York City, politicians don’t tend to come back from stints in federal prison. But with five weeks to go before the June 26 Republican primary, he is leading incumbent Rep. Dan Donovan in the polls and most observers expect he will win. To call it a comeback is an understatement; this is a rise from the ashes in the weird and very particular world of Staten Island and South Brooklyn.
Some people discover God in prison, but not Grimm. He discovered Donald Trump. And in October of last year he announced he was running as one of Steve Bannon’s pro-Trump insurgent candidates, challenging Republicans who were not entirely with the president. By January, Bannon was exiled from the White House and the popular narrative that Trumpism doesn’t work down-ballot was firmly entrenched. Is Grimm the candidate who can reverse that trend? It’s looking that way...
Grimm is likely to win the Republican nomination. Frankly, Donovan is barely even running against him, and many people wonder if he actually wants to win. In a recent New York Post article about how many congressmen can’t afford an apartment in DC, Donovan is shown on a cot in his office, his palms pointing upwards as if to ask 'Why am I here?' It looks like a hostage photo. It suggests that a vote for Grimm might put him out of his misery. Is the Trump agenda something Republicans can run on nationwide? Or should they be running away from it? Grimm suggests the former. Six months ago, that might have sounded crazy. But as Trump’s approval rating rises and the congressional ballot polls narrow, Grimm is looking pretty prescient."[55]
  • Carl Campanile and Kenneth Garger, New York Post (May 14, 2018): "Michael Grimm — who lost the seat when he was convicted as a tax cheat — has a real shot at pulling off the upset to topple Republican Rep. Dan Donovan, a three-term district attorney, county officials said.
'It’s a toss-up,' said former SI GOP county chairman John Antoniello, about the June 26 primary. 'It’s not a good situation. You have two good Republicans running against each other. Somebody has to win and somebody has to lose.'
One Donovan backer, a well-known GOP insider, acknowledged Grimm has a “60-40” chance of winning. And ex-Rep. Vito Fossella — who stepped down from the same seat in 2009 after it was revealed the married congressman had a secret family in Virginia — said 'it’s a real horse race' though he expects Donovan to prevail.
The race should be a slam dunk for Donovan, who served as a popular DA for 12 years before replacing Grimm in 2015 after the ex-FBI agent was convicted of tax evasion in connection with a restaurant business he ran. Donovan has the support of both the Republican and Conservative Party establishments. But, like Fossella before him, Grimm was always popular among his constituents — winning re-election by 10 points while under indictment in 2014. A charismatic, alpha male and relentless campaigner, his personality and grassroots presence connects with many Staten Island voters — particularly Republicans. Grimm also garnered a measure of infamy for threatening to throw a NY 1 reporter off a balcony in the Capitol when asked about the probe of his finances.
'Let me be clear to you, you ever do that to me again, I’ll throw you off this f—–g balcony,” Grimm threatened Michael Scotto. When Scotto asked, 'Why, it’s a valid question?,' a raging Grimm said: 'No, no, you’re not man enough … I’ll break you in half. Like a boy.' He later apologized."[56]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: New York's 11th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Lean Republican Lean RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Lean Republican Likely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Lean Republican Lean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+3, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 3 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New York's 11th Congressional District the 214th most Republican nationally.[57]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.12. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.12 points toward that party.[58]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eighteen of 62 New York counties—29 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Broome County, New York 2.01% 5.31% 8.02%
Cayuga County, New York 11.64% 11.40% 8.48%
Cortland County, New York 5.58% 9.11% 9.96%
Essex County, New York 1.14% 18.77% 13.32%
Franklin County, New York 5.45% 26.07% 22.23%
Madison County, New York 14.20% 0.89% 0.87%
Niagara County, New York 17.75% 0.84% 1.00%
Orange County, New York 5.50% 5.65% 4.13%
Oswego County, New York 21.99% 7.93% 2.44%
Otsego County, New York 11.13% 2.72% 5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York 1.41% 12.19% 9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York 8.82% 16.71% 16.33%
Saratoga County, New York 3.21% 2.44% 3.40%
Seneca County, New York 11.01% 9.08% 2.60%
Suffolk County, New York 6.84% 3.69% 5.99%
Sullivan County, New York 11.23% 9.02% 9.46%
Warren County, New York 8.47% 2.32% 2.64%
Washington County, New York 18.40% 1.90% 0.81%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New York with 59 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, New York voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 35 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New York voted Democratic all five times.[59]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in New York. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[60][61]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 114 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 99 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 50.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 36 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 51 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. Trump won 13 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Politico, "‘Arguably the most desperate act I’ve ever seen a sitting member of Congress do’," May 2, 2018
  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 Politico, "Donovan blames Grimm for heroin arrest flap," April 2, 2018
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named politico2
  4. ↑ Politico, "Trump endorses Donovan over Grimm," May 30, 2018
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 Newsweek, "Ex-convict Michael Grimm: Steve Bannon Is 'Very Excited' to Get Me Re-elected to Congress," October 5, 2017
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Spectrum News, "Scaramucci to headline fundraiser for Grimm on Staten Island," April 30, 2018
  7. ↑ Roll Call, "Democrats’ Poll Puts Grimm Up by Double Digits Over Donovan," April 23, 2018
  8. ↑ Staten Island Live, "Rep. Dan Donovan leads Michael Grimm by 7 points in new poll," June 22, 2018
  9. ↑ Roll Call, "An Ex-Con Looks for a Comeback in New York’s 11th District," June 20, 2018
  10. ↑ 10.0 10.1 Staten Island Live, "Donald Trump Jr. backs Rep. Dan Donovan in robocall day before GOP primary," June 25, 2018
  11. ↑ Twitter, "Donald Trump on June 26"
  12. ↑ Politico, "A ‘bloodletting of Washington Democrats’ in New York as Crowley loss shocks Dems — DONOVAN victory shows strength of TRUMP endorsement — Rape on Rikers," June 27, 2018
  13. ↑ New York Post, "Dan Donovan defeats Michael Grimm after bruising GOP primary," June 26, 2018
  14. ↑ New York Times, "Dan Donovan, Aided by Trump, Holds Off Michael Grimm in G.O.P. Primary," June 26, 2018
  15. ↑ Staten Island Live, "New York state AFL-CIO endorses Rep. Daniel Donovan," April 12, 2018
  16. ↑ Business Insider, "The Republican Party's Rebranding Effort Might Be Headed For A Roadblock In New York," January 6, 2015
  17. ↑ New York Daily News, "Republican Michael Grimm of Staten Island at the ideological center of House of Representatives, says the same study that reached the same conclusion about his Democratic predecessor, Michael McMahon," February 22, 2013
  18. ↑ At the time the poll was taken, Donovan was a client of Axiom Strategies, the owner of Remington Research.
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 ProPublica, "New York’s 11th District House Race - 2018 cycle," accessed June 12, 2018
  20. ↑ New York Post, "Giuliani to campaign in support of Donovan’s re-election bid," May 18, 2018
  21. ↑ Washington Examiner, "Paul Ryan backs Dan Donovan over Michael Grimm in New York GOP primary," October 11, 2017
  22. ↑ 22.0 22.1 Real Clear Politics, "Primary in Staten Island -- Trump Country -- Worries GOP," June 8, 2018
  23. ↑ Politico, "Grimm and Donovan brawl in first of 2 primary debates," June 11, 2018
  24. ↑ Staten Island Advance, "In the Republican Primary, the Advance endorses Dan Donovan," June 17, 2018
  25. ↑ New York Post, "The Post endorses Dan Donovan for Congress," June 10, 2018
  26. ↑ Staten Island Live, "Police union backs Rep. Dan Donovan in primary race," June 5, 2018
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 27.2 Staten Island Live, "New York state AFL-CIO endorses Rep. Daniel Donovan," April 12, 2018
  28. ↑ New York Post, "Staten Island’s Donovan gets Independence Party nod," February 28, 2018
  29. ↑ Dan Donovan for Congress, "Donovan Receives Reform Party Endorsement," February 26, 2018
  30. ↑ Staten Island Live, "Staten Island GOP endorses Rep. Daniel Donovan for re-election," February 22, 2018
  31. ↑ Staten Island Live, "State Conservative Party endorses Rep. Daniel Donovan," February 14, 2018
  32. ↑ 32.0 32.1 Staten Island Live, "5 things to know about the second Republican primary debate between Donovan, Grimm," June 14, 2018
  33. ↑ The Hill, "GOP lawmaker to introduce legislation to mandate picture of president, VP at post offices," April 4, 2018
  34. ↑ New York Post, "Donovan to propose bill that targets sanctuary city funding," April 22, 2018
  35. ↑ King County Politics, "Grimm Answers Trade Question After Being Called On The Carpet," April 6, 2018
  36. ↑ Congressman Dan Donovan, "Statement from Congressman Dan Donovan on Final Tax Bill," December 19, 2017
  37. ↑ Roll Call, "Grimm Has Some Advice for Trump After Not Getting Endorsement," June 4, 2018
  38. ↑ Zloto News, "Ex-Rep. Michael Grimm campaigns for old seat, warns Trump to ‘stay out’ of race," June 2, 2018
  39. ↑ NBC News, "Man detained by ICE after delivering pizza to Army base granted stay of removal," June 9, 2018
  40. ↑ Dan Donovan for Congress, "Statement from Congressman Dan Donovan on ICE’s Action at Fort Hamilton," June 6, 2018
  41. ↑ Brooklyn Daily, "Donovan whacked by both sides over ‘hateful’ mailer," June 7, 2018
  42. ↑ Politico, "Grimm lobs grenade into GOP primary with Trump pardon claim," June 14, 2018
  43. ↑ NY1, "Donovan accuses Grimm of being lobbied by DC firm representing him in criminal investigation," June 15, 2018
  44. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named rc
  45. ↑ Spectrum News, "Donovan accuses Grimm of engaging in dirty tricks at city's Board of Elections," April 13, 2018
  46. ↑ Staten Island Live, "Board of Elections to refer Grimm campaign action to prosecutors," May 1, 2018
  47. ↑ Staten Island Live, "Rep. Daniel Donovan's campaign launches 'Grimm Reality' website," April 16, 2018
  48. ↑ Spectrum News, "Taxes become issue in Donovan-Grimm race," April 27, 2018
  49. ↑ Dan Donovan for Congress, "Dan Donovan Releases First TV Ad of the Campaign," May 21, 2018
  50. ↑ Dan Donovan, "Voters Have Clear Choice Between Guilty Grimm and Law-and-Order Donovan," April 24, 2018
  51. ↑ Politico, "Grimm makes first ad buy against Trump-backed Donovan as race tightens," June 1, 2018
  52. ↑ 52.0 52.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  53. ↑ Dan Donovan for Congress, “Issues,” accessed April 20, 2018
  54. ↑ Michael Grimm for Congress, “Home,” accessed April 20, 2018
  55. ↑ The Federalist, "Is Michael Grimm Trump’s Comeback Kid?" May 23, 2018
  56. ↑ New York Post, "Insiders say convicted felon Grimm has upper hand in congressional race," May 14, 2018
  57. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  58. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  59. ↑ 270towin.com, "New York," accessed June 1, 2017
  60. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  61. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  62. ↑ Democrats won Assembly District 9 in a special election on May 23, 2017. The seat was previously held by a Republican.


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