New York's 14th Congressional District election, 2020

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New York's 14th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2020
Primary: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. (general elections); primary times vary by county
Voting in New York
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
New York's 14th Congressional District
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New York elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 14th Congressional District of New York, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won election in the general election for U.S. House New York District 14.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 2, 2020
June 23, 2020
November 3, 2020

Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was first elected in 2018.

New York's 14th Congressional District is located in the southeastern portion of the state and includes parts of Bronx County and Queens County.[1]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

New York modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee voting eligibility in the general election was extended to any voter who was "unable to appear personally at the polling place of the election district in which they are a qualified voter because there is a risk of contracting or spreading a disease causing illness to the voter or to other members of the public." The state launched an absentee ballot request portal.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The filing deadline for independent nominating petitions was extended to July 30, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.

Republican Party Republican primary candidates

This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:


Did not make the ballot:

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.

Third Party primary candidates

Conservative Party

This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:

Serve America Movement Party

This primary was canceled and this candidate advanced:


Did not make the ballot:

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.


See more

See more here: New York's 14th Congressional District election, 2020 (June 23 Democratic primary)

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eighteen of 62 New York counties—29 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Broome County, New York 2.01% 5.31% 8.02%
Cayuga County, New York 11.64% 11.40% 8.48%
Cortland County, New York 5.58% 9.11% 9.96%
Essex County, New York 1.14% 18.77% 13.32%
Franklin County, New York 5.45% 26.07% 22.23%
Madison County, New York 14.20% 0.89% 0.87%
Niagara County, New York 17.75% 0.84% 1.00%
Orange County, New York 5.50% 5.65% 4.13%
Oswego County, New York 21.99% 7.93% 2.44%
Otsego County, New York 11.13% 2.72% 5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York 1.41% 12.19% 9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York 8.82% 16.71% 16.33%
Saratoga County, New York 3.21% 2.44% 3.40%
Seneca County, New York 11.01% 9.08% 2.60%
Suffolk County, New York 6.84% 3.69% 5.99%
Sullivan County, New York 11.23% 9.02% 9.46%
Warren County, New York 8.47% 2.32% 2.64%
Washington County, New York 18.40% 1.90% 0.81%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New York with 59 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, New York voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 35 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New York voted Democratic all five times.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in New York. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 114 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 99 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 50.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 36 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 51 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. Trump won 13 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+29, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 29 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made New York's 14th Congressional District the 29th most Democratic nationally.[6]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.73. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.73 points toward that party.[7]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election. It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are automatically updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic Party $19,460,443 $16,715,397 $3,114,192 As of November 23, 2020
John Cummings Conservative Party, Republican Party $9,614,161 $8,520,468 $1,093,744 As of October 14, 2020
Michelle Caruso-Cabrera Serve America Movement Party $3,399,792 $2,851,753 $548,038 As of October 14, 2020
Antoine Tucker Republican Party $82,747 $80,473 $2,284 As of June 30, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," .

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[9]
  • Tossup ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[10][11][12]

Race ratings: New York's 14th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 14th Congressional District candidates in New York in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in New York, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
New York 14th Congressional District Qualified party 375 Reduced by executive action in response to the coronavirus pandemic N/A N/A 4/2/2020 Source
New York 14th Congressional District Unaffiliated 3,500 5% of the total number of votes cast for governor in the district in the last election, or 3,500, whichever is less N/A N/A 5/26/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: New York's 14th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 14

Candidate
%
Votes
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Alexandria_Ocasio-Cortez.jpg

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
 
78.2
 
110,318

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Anthony_Pappas.jpg

Anthony Pappas (R)
 
13.6
 
19,202

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Joseph_Crowley.jpeg

Joseph Crowley (Working Families Party)
 
6.6
 
9,348

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Elizabeth Perri (Conservative Party)
 
1.6
 
2,254

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 141,122
(100.00% precincts reporting)

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 14

Candidate
%
Votes
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Alexandria_Ocasio-Cortez.jpg

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
 
56.7
 
16,898

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Joseph_Crowley.jpeg

Joseph Crowley
 
43.3
 
12,880

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 29,778

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 14

Candidate
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Anthony_Pappas.jpg

Anthony Pappas

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.


2016

See also: New York's 14th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Joseph Crowley (D) defeated Frank Spotorno (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced any opposition in the primaries on June 28, 2016.[13][14]

U.S. House, New York District 14 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJoseph Crowley Incumbent 82.9% 147,587
     Republican Frank Spotorno 17.1% 30,545
Total Votes 178,132
Source: New York Board of Elections

2014

See also: New York's 14th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 14th Congressional District of New York held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Joseph Crowley (D) defeated Elizabeth Perri (Conservative) in the general election.

U.S. House, New York District 14 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJoseph Crowley Incumbent 74.7% 50,352
     Conservative Elizabeth Perri 10% 6,735
     N/A Blank/Void/Scattering 15.3% 10,285
Total Votes 67,372
Source: New York State Board of Elections

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ New York Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "New York," accessed June 1, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Democrats won Assembly District 9 in a special election on May 23, 2017. The seat was previously held by a Republican.
  6. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  7. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  8. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2020 Quarterly reports," accessed September 21, 2020
  9. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  10. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  13. ↑ New York State Board of Elections, "Filings received for the 2016 Primary Election," accessed May 15, 2016
  14. ↑ Politico, "New York House Races Results," June 28, 2016
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