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New York's 15th Congressional District election, 2020

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New York's 15th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2020
Primary: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Jose Serrano (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. (general elections); primary times vary by county
Voting in New York
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
New York's 15th Congressional District
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New York elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 15th Congressional District of New York, held elections in 2020.

Ritchie Torres won election in the general election for U.S. House New York District 15.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 2, 2020
June 23, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Jose Serrano, who was first elected in 1990. On March 25, 2019, Serrano announced that he would not seek re-election in 2020.[1]


New York's 15th Congressional District is located in the southeastern portion of the state and includes parts of Bronx County.[2]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, New York's 15th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 86.4 88.7
Republican candidate Republican Party 13 11.1
Difference 73.4 77.6

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

New York modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee voting eligibility in the general election was extended to any voter who was "unable to appear personally at the polling place of the election district in which they are a qualified voter because there is a risk of contracting or spreading a disease causing illness to the voter or to other members of the public." The state launched an absentee ballot request portal.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The filing deadline for independent nominating petitions was extended to July 30, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 15

Ritchie Torres defeated Patrick Delices in the general election for U.S. House New York District 15 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ritchie Torres
Ritchie Torres (D)
 
88.7
 
169,533
Image of Patrick Delices
Patrick Delices (R / Conservative Party)
 
11.1
 
21,221
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.1
 
283

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 191,037
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 15

The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 15 on June 23, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Ritchie Torres
Ritchie Torres
 
32.1
 
19,090
Image of Michael Blake
Michael Blake
 
18.0
 
10,725
Image of Ruben Diaz
Ruben Diaz
 
14.4
 
8,559
Image of Samelys Lopez
Samelys Lopez Candidate Connection
 
13.9
 
8,272
Image of Ydanis Rodriguez
Ydanis Rodriguez
 
10.6
 
6,291
Image of Melissa Mark-Viverito
Melissa Mark-Viverito
 
4.3
 
2,561
Image of Tomas Ramos
Tomas Ramos Candidate Connection
 
2.4
 
1,442
Image of Chivona Newsome
Chivona Newsome Candidate Connection
 
2.3
 
1,366
Image of Marlene Tapper
Marlene Tapper Candidate Connection
 
0.7
 
392
Image of Julio Pabon
Julio Pabon Candidate Connection
 
0.4
 
244
Image of Frangell Basora
Frangell Basora Candidate Connection
 
0.3
 
189
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Mark Escoffery-Bey
 
0.3
 
153
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
David Philip Franks Jr. (Write-in)
 
0.0
 
0
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.3
 
189

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 59,473
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Orlando Molina advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 15.

Conservative Party primary election

The Conservative Party primary election was canceled. Patrick Delices advanced from the Conservative Party primary for U.S. House New York District 15.

Working Families Party primary election

The Working Families Party primary election was canceled. Kenneth Schaeffer advanced from the Working Families Party primary for U.S. House New York District 15.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eighteen of 62 New York counties—29 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Broome County, New York 2.01% 5.31% 8.02%
Cayuga County, New York 11.64% 11.40% 8.48%
Cortland County, New York 5.58% 9.11% 9.96%
Essex County, New York 1.14% 18.77% 13.32%
Franklin County, New York 5.45% 26.07% 22.23%
Madison County, New York 14.20% 0.89% 0.87%
Niagara County, New York 17.75% 0.84% 1.00%
Orange County, New York 5.50% 5.65% 4.13%
Oswego County, New York 21.99% 7.93% 2.44%
Otsego County, New York 11.13% 2.72% 5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York 1.41% 12.19% 9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York 8.82% 16.71% 16.33%
Saratoga County, New York 3.21% 2.44% 3.40%
Seneca County, New York 11.01% 9.08% 2.60%
Suffolk County, New York 6.84% 3.69% 5.99%
Sullivan County, New York 11.23% 9.02% 9.46%
Warren County, New York 8.47% 2.32% 2.64%
Washington County, New York 18.40% 1.90% 0.81%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New York with 59 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, New York voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 35 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New York voted Democratic all five times.[3]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in New York. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[4][5]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 114 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 99 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 50.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 36 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 51 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. Trump won 13 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+44, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 44 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made New York's 15th Congressional District the most Democratic nationally.[7]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.77. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.77 points toward that party.[8]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[9] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[10] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Ritchie Torres Democratic Party $2,220,924 $1,831,234 $389,690 As of December 31, 2020
Patrick Delices Republican Party, Conservative Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[11]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[12][13][14]

Race ratings: New York's 15th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 15th Congressional District candidates in New York in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in New York, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
New York 15th Congressional District Qualified party 375 Reduced by executive action in response to the coronavirus pandemic N/A N/A 4/2/2020 Source
New York 15th Congressional District Unaffiliated 3,500 5% of the total number of votes cast for governor in the district in the last election, or 3,500, whichever is less N/A N/A 5/26/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: New York's 15th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 15

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of José Serrano
José Serrano (D)
 
96.0
 
124,469
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Jason Gonzalez (R)
 
4.0
 
5,205

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 129,674
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 15

Candidate
✔
Image of José Serrano
José Serrano

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 15

Candidate
✔
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Jason Gonzalez

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: New York's 15th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Jose Serrano (D) defeated Alejandro Vega (R) and Eduardo Ramirez (Conservative) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Serrano defeated Leonel Baez in the Democratic primary on June 28, 2016.[15][16]

U.S. House, New York District 15 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJose E. Serrano Incumbent 95.3% 165,688
     Republican Alejandro Vega 3.5% 6,129
     Conservative Eduardo Ramirez 1.2% 2,104
Total Votes 173,921
Source: New York Board of Elections


U.S. House, New York, District 15 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJose Serrano Incumbent 89.2% 9,334
Leonel Baez 10.8% 1,127
Total Votes 10,461
Source: New York State Board of Elections

2014

See also: New York's 15th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 15th Congressional District of New York held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Jose Serrano (D) defeated Eduardo Ramirez (Conservative) and William Edstrom (Green) in the general election.

U.S. House, New York District 15 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJose Serrano Incumbent 97.1% 54,906
     Conservative Eduardo Ramirez 1.9% 1,047
     Green William Edstrom 1% 568
     N/A Write-in votes 0.1% 42
Total Votes 56,563
Source: New York State Board of Elections, NYS Board of Elections Rep. in Congress Election Returns November 4, 2014," accessed August 30, 2021

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Office of Congressman Jose Serrano, "After 45 Years of Public Service, Congressman Serrano Not Seeking Reelection in 2020," March 25, 2019
  2. ↑ New York Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  3. ↑ 270towin.com, "New York," accessed June 1, 2017
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  5. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  6. ↑ Democrats won Assembly District 9 in a special election on May 23, 2017. The seat was previously held by a Republican.
  7. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  8. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  9. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  10. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  11. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  15. ↑ New York State Board of Elections, "Filings received for the 2016 Primary Election," accessed May 15, 2016
  16. ↑ Politico, "New York House Races Results," June 28, 2016


New York's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Chuck Schumer (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Pat Ryan (D)
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
Democratic Party (21)
Republican Party (7)


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