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New York's 19th Congressional District elections, 2012
2014 →
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November 6, 2012 |
June 26, 2012 |
Chris Gibson  |
Nan Hayworth |
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The 19th Congressional District of New York held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Chris Gibson was re-elected on November 6, 2012.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: New York has a closed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by June 1, 2012. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 12, 2012, or October 26, 2012 in person.[2]
- See also: New York elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election was incumbent Nan Hayworth (R), who was first elected to the House in 2010. Due to redistricting, Hayworth ran in the redrawn 18th District, and 20th District incumbent Chris Gibson ran in the new 19th.
This was the first election using district maps based on data from the 2010 Census. New York's 19th Congressional District is located in the eastern portion of the state and includes Sullivan, Ulster, Delaware, Otsego, Schoharie, Greene, and Columbia counties and parts of Montgomery, Rensselaer, and Dutchess counties.[3]
Fusion voting
New York is one of eight states that have "electoral fusion" -- which allows more than one political party to support a common candidate. This creates a situation where one candidate will appear multiple times on the same ballot, for the same position. Electoral fusion was once widespread across the United States, but is now commonly practiced only in New York.
Opponents of fusion voting argue that the process results in dealmaking to ensure that patronage is rampant.[4] Proponents maintain that fusion voting allows for minor parties to actually make a difference during the election, allowing voters the opportunity to vote for a minority party platform but still affect the general election result.[5]
Candidates that appeared in the general election are listed below with colored dots corresponding to any party they represented on the ballot.
Candidates
Note: Election results were added on election night as races were called. Vote totals were added after official election results had been certified. Click here for more information about Ballotpedia's election coverage plan. Please contact us about errors in this list.
General election candidates
June 26, 2012 primary results
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Election results
General election
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Chris Gibson Incumbent |
52.8% | 150,245 | |
| Democratic | Julian Schreibman | 47.2% | 134,295 | |
| N/A | Write-in votes | 0% | 139 | |
| Total Votes | 284,679 | |||
| Source: New York State Board of Elections, "NYS Board of Elections Rep. in Congress Election Returns Nov. 6, 2012," accessed September 1, 2021 | ||||
Race background
General election
Competitiveness
Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for New York's 19th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House."[9]
| List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:[10] | |
|---|---|
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Democratic Toss Ups: Republican Toss Ups: | |
New York's 19th was considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Chris Gibson was challenged by Julian Schreibman (D). Gibson's district went from a Republican leaning district to a swing district, which Democrats believed they have a chance of securing.[11]
New York's 19th District had been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization had specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[12]
Incumbent Chris Gibson was a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans stay on offense and increase their majority in 2012.[13]
Democratic primary
Two relatively unknown candidates sought the Democratic nod to face Republican incumbent Chris Gibson in the general election. Dutchess County legislator Joel Tyner faced former federal prosecutor Julian Schreibman in the June 26, 2012 Democratic primary.[14]
The two agreed on many issues. Tyner made opposition to hydrofracking -- a controversial method of oil and natural gas recovery -- a main theme of his campaign, but Schreibman also said he opposes the technique "100%."[15] Both candidates also said they would not be yes-men for President Barack Obama.[15] And each had the similar goal of protecting Social Security.[14] On health care, there was some differentiation, as Tyner called for a single-payer system, while Schreibman supported "universal access to health care" and favored the health care legislation already passed and known as "Obamacare."[16]
Schreibman was endorsed by retiring Representative Maurice Hinchey,[14] and argued that he was the more electable candidate[16] in the Republican-leaning district.[17] He also said he had a greater fundraising capability, which would help battle "an avalanche of unregulated corporate money" in the general election.[18]
But Tyner was quick to criticize the sources of Schreibman's campaign contributions as coming from "investors."[15] He also highlighted his own history of being elected to his county seat despite being in a heavily Republican area, while Schreibman's stint as county Democratic chairman saw party losses in the state Legislature.[18]
Campaign donors
Schreibman received $535,000 in campaign donations in the third quarter, while incumbent Gibson raised $410,000.[19]
The race attracted $3.9 million in satellite spending since Labor Day. A total of $1,781,844 was spent helping Democrat Julian Schreibman while $2,069,094 was spent to aid Republican Chris Gibson.[20]
Polls
| Chris Gibson vs Julian Schreibman | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Gibson | Schreibman | Undecided/Not Voting | Margin of error | |||||||||||||||
| Siena College (October 30,2012) | 48% | 43% | 9% | +/-3.8 | |||||||||||||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (October 26, 2012) | 49% | 39% | 12% | +/-4.9 | |||||||||||||||
| AVERAGES | 48.5% | 41% | 10.5% | +/-4.35 | |||||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in New York
Following the results of the 2010 Census, New York lost two congressional seats, bringing its total number of representatives down from 29 to 27. According to a report in the Washington Post political blog "The Fix," New York was one of the top 10 redistricting battles in the nation.[21]
The 19th District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[22][23]
- 4 percent from the 19th Congressional District
- 45 percent from the 20th Congressional District
- 7 percent from the 21st Congressional District
- 38 percent from the 22nd Congressional District
Registration statistics
As of October 29, 2012, District 19 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the New York State Board of Elections:
| New York Congressional District 19[24] | |||||||
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| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 19 | 420,934 | 130,307 | 141,258 | 149,369 | Republican | 8.40% | 12.10% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. New York's 19th District became more balanced because of redistricting.[25]
- 2012: 50D / 50R
- 2010: 48D / 52R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measured each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. New York's 19th Congressional District had a PVI of Even, which was the 188th most Democratic district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 54-46 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 51-49 percent over John Kerry (D).[26]
District history
| Candidate ballot access |
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2010
On November 2, 2010, Nan Hayworth was elected to the United States House. She also ran on the Conservative Party and Independence Party tickets. She defeated John J. Hall (D).[27]
| U.S. House, New York Congressional District 19 General Election, 2010 | ||||
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| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Nan Hayworth |
51% | 109,956 | |
| Democratic | John J. Hall | 45.8% | 98,766 | |
| Blank/Scattering | 3.3% | 7,016 | ||
| Total Votes | 215,738 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in New York, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
- United States Senate elections in New York, 2012
Footnotes
- ↑ York ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
- ↑ New York State Board of Elections, "Voting Deadline Page," accessed June 30, 2012
- ↑ New York Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed September 25, 2012
- ↑ Clarence Bee, "State Senate candidate calls for an end to fusion voting", accessed September 19, 2013
- ↑ Oregon Working Family Party, "What is Fusion Voting?", accessed September 19, 2013
- ↑ Capitol Confidential "Already, Joel Tyner for Congress," accessed December 23, 2011
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 New York Board of Elections "Filings for June 26, 2012 Federal Primary," April 17, 2012
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 New York Board of Elections "List of Filings for June 26, 2012 Federal Primary," accessed May 30, 2012
- ↑ Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings," updated October 18, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 10, 2012
- ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
- ↑ NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 14.2 River Reporter Online, "Tyner and Schreibman vie for Hinchey’s seat; both claim they follow his progressive lead," June 20, 2012
- ↑ 15.0 15.1 15.2 Record Online, "Schreibman, Tyner face off in debate for 19th Congressional District," June 18, 2012
- ↑ 16.0 16.1 Watershed Post, "Congressional candidates Schreibman and Tyner face off in debate," June 19, 2012
- ↑ Sabato Crystal Ball, "2012 House Ratings," June 13, 2012
- ↑ 18.0 18.1 Hudson Valley Daily Freeman, "Democratic congressional candidates Julian Schreibman, Joel Tyner square off in debate (videos)," June 19, 2012
- ↑ Capitol Confidential, "Schreibman raises more money than Gibson," October 5, 2012
- ↑ The New York Times, "Outside Spending in Key House Races," October 25, 2012
- ↑ Washington Post, "The Fix," "Redistricting battles hit a fever pitch," June 3, 2011
- ↑ Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "New York's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
- ↑ Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
- ↑ New York State Board of Elections, "District Active Enrollment 2012," April, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in New York," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
