Become part of the movement for unbiased, accessible election information. Donate today.

New York's 24th Congressional District election, 2020 (June 23 Democratic primary)

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search



2022
2018
New York's 24th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2020
Primary: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
John Katko (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. (general elections); primary times vary by county
Voting in New York
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Tilt Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
New York's 24th Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th19th20th21st22nd23rd24th25th26th27th
New York elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

Dana Balter defeated Francis Conole in the Democratic primary for New York's 24th Congressional District on June 23, 2020. Balter received 63% of the vote to Conole's 37%.

Balter advanced to the district's general election on November 3, 2020. Heading into the election, the incumbent was John Katko (R), who was first elected in 2014. In 2018, Balter was the district's Democratic nominee and was defeated by Katko 53% to 47% in the general election.

According to Syracuse.com, Balter and Conole "mostly avoided talking about each other in public appearances, TV ads and emails to voters, and instead have made the primary race about electability. ... Balter and Conole disagree on only one major issue – how to reform the nation’s healthcare system. Balter favors a phased version of Medicare for All. Conole wants a 'public option' that allows people to keep their private health insurance."[1] Balter received endorsements from U.S. Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) and Katie Porter (D-Calif.), EMILY's List, and the Working Families Party.[1] Conole was endorsed by U.S. Reps. Sean Maloney (D-N.Y.), Seth Moulton (D-Mass.), and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), VoteVets.org, and Voter Protection Project.

Both candidates reported around $874,000 in fundraising through June 3, according to campaign finance reports.[2]

Major independent observers rated the general election as Likely Republican or Lean Republican. The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+3, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 3 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This district is one of five Republican-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election. Click here to learn more about what was at stake in the general election.

Click on candidate names below to view their key messages:


Balter

Conole


Grey.png For more information about the general election, click here.

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

New York modified its primary election process as follows:

  • Election postponements: The presidential preference primary was postponed from April 28 to June 23.
  • Candidate filing procedures: Petition signature requirements for primary candidates was reduced.
  • Voting procedures: All votes were allowed to cast their ballots by mail in the primary election. All eligible voters were sent absentee ballot applications. The absentee ballot submission deadline was extended to June 23.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.


Candidates and election results

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 24

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Dana Balter
Dana Balter
 
63.0
 
29,531
Image of Francis Conole
Francis Conole
 
36.8
 
17,254
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
75

Total votes: 46,860
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[3] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.

Image of Dana Balter

WebsiteFacebookTwitter

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography:  Balter received a B.S. from Northwestern University and an M.P.A. from the University of Connecticut. As of her 2020 campaign, she was working on a Ph.D. in public administration at Syracuse University. She was a political organizer for the CNY Solidarity Coalition and a visiting assistant teaching professor at Syracuse University.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


“I’m standing up to fight for the things our communities need so that everyone can share in prosperity and security. I will work to guarantee quality, affordable healthcare for every person; build a fair economy that works for everyone; and get big money out of politics so the power rests with average people not special interests.”


“As someone with a pre-existing condition, this fight is personal for me. While John Katko, Mitch McConnell, and Donald Trump fight to weaken Obamacare, I'm fighting to make sure everyone has good healthcare.”


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House New York District 24 in 2020.

Image of Francis Conole

WebsiteFacebookTwitterYouTube

Party: Democratic Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography: 

Conole graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy. He was a senior intelligence officer in the Navy and a policy advisor at the Pentagon. As of his 2020 campaign, Conole was a commander in the Navy Reserves.



Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.


"Growing up in Central NY & serving as an Iraq War Vet, I've seen tough times & solved problems in challenging circumstances. Now I'm running for Congress because we have an urgent mission to invest in our workers, help small businesses & rebuild our country."


“I’ve spent my life serving our country and fighting for American interests and American values, and I will continue to fight for the people of Central New York and fight for a better America and better region."


Show sources

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House New York District 24 in 2020.


Noteworthy primary endorsements

This section includes noteworthy endorsements issued in the primary, added as we learn about them. Click here to read how we define noteworthy primary endorsements. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.


Click on the links below to view lists of endorsements on candidate websites, as available:

Democratic primary endorsements
Endorsement Balter Conole
Elected officials
U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.)[4]
U.S. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.)[1]
U.S. Rep. Sean Maloney (D-N.Y.)[5]
U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.)[4]
U.S. Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.)[1]
Organizations
Cayuga County Democrats[4]
Democracy for America[6]
End Citizens United[6]
Indivisible[6]
Let America Vote[6]
National Organization for Women PAC[6]
Onondaga County Democrats[4]
Oswego County Democrats[6]
Peace Action[6]
Planned Parenthood Action Fund[6]
Progressive Caucus[6]
Progressive Change Campaign Committee[6]
Serve America PAC[4]
Taking the Hill PAC[4]
Voter Protection Project[4]
VoteVets.org[4]
Working Families Party[6]

Timeline

  • June 11, 2020: Pre-election campaign finance reports covering all fundraising and spending through June 3, 2020, were due. Both candidates reported around $874,000 in fundraising.[2]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[7] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[8] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Dana Balter Democratic Party $3,272,252 $3,290,591 $5,647 As of December 31, 2020
Francis Conole Democratic Party $963,179 $962,249 $930 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Primaries in New York

A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. New York utilizes a closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[9][10]

For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.

What was at stake in the general election?

See also: New York's 24th Congressional District election, 2020

U.S. House elections were held on November 3, 2020, and coincided with the 2020 presidential election. All 435 House districts were up for election, and the results determined control of the U.S. House in the 117th Congress.

At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232-197 advantage over Republicans. There was one Libertarian member, and there were five vacancies. Republicans needed to gain a net 21 seats to win control of the House. Democrats needed to gain seats or lose fewer than 14 net seats to keep their majority.

In the 2018 midterm election, Democrats had a net gain of 40 seats, winning a 235-200 majority in the House. Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans had a 235-193 majority with seven vacancies.

In the 25 previous House elections that coincided with a presidential election, the president's party had gained House seats in 16 elections and lost seats in nine. In years where the president's party won districts, the average gain was 18. In years where the president's party lost districts, the average loss was 27. Click here for more information on presidential partisanship and down-ballot outcomes.


General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[11]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[12][13][14]

Race ratings: New York's 24th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanToss-upToss-upToss-up
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+3, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 3 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made New York's 24th Congressional District the 178th most Democratic nationally.[15]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.90. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.90 points toward that party.[16]

District represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016

This district was one of five Republican-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election. Most were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2020.


Republican-held U.S. House districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
District Incumbent Ran in 2020? 2018 congressional margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
New York's 24th Republican Party John Katko Yes Republicans+5.3 Clinton+3.6 Obama+15.9
North Carolina's 2nd Republican Party George Holding Retired Republicans+5.6 Clinton+24.4 Obama+15.3
North Carolina's 6th Republican Party Mark Walker Retired Republicans+13.2 Clinton+21.5 Obama+17.7
Pennsylvania's 1st Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick Yes Republicans+2.5 Clinton+2.0 Obama+2.6
Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Retired Republicans+0.4 Clinton+3.4 Romney+2.6
Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball and Daily Kos


Click here to see the 30 U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump (R) in 2016.


Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eighteen of 62 New York counties—29 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Broome County, New York 2.01% 5.31% 8.02%
Cayuga County, New York 11.64% 11.40% 8.48%
Cortland County, New York 5.58% 9.11% 9.96%
Essex County, New York 1.14% 18.77% 13.32%
Franklin County, New York 5.45% 26.07% 22.23%
Madison County, New York 14.20% 0.89% 0.87%
Niagara County, New York 17.75% 0.84% 1.00%
Orange County, New York 5.50% 5.65% 4.13%
Oswego County, New York 21.99% 7.93% 2.44%
Otsego County, New York 11.13% 2.72% 5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York 1.41% 12.19% 9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York 8.82% 16.71% 16.33%
Saratoga County, New York 3.21% 2.44% 3.40%
Seneca County, New York 11.01% 9.08% 2.60%
Suffolk County, New York 6.84% 3.69% 5.99%
Sullivan County, New York 11.23% 9.02% 9.46%
Warren County, New York 8.47% 2.32% 2.64%
Washington County, New York 18.40% 1.90% 0.81%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New York with 59 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, New York voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 35 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New York voted Democratic all five times.[17]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in New York. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[18][19]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 114 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 99 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 50.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 36 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 51 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. Trump won 13 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District election history

2018

See also: New York's 24th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 24

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of John Katko
John Katko (R)
 
52.6
 
136,920
Image of Dana Balter
Dana Balter (D)
 
47.4
 
123,226

Total votes: 260,146
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 24

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Dana Balter
Dana Balter
 
62.4
 
14,897
Image of Juanita Perez Williams
Juanita Perez Williams
 
37.6
 
8,958

Total votes: 23,855
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 24

Candidate
Image of John Katko
John Katko

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: New York's 24th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as a race to watch. Incumbent John Katko (R) defeated Colleen Deacon (D) and Mimi Satter (Working Families) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Deacon defeated Eric Kingson and Steven Williams in the Democratic primary, while Katko faced no primary challenger. The primary elections took place on June 28, 2016.[21][22]

U.S. House, New York District 24 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Katko Incumbent 60.6% 182,761
     Democratic Colleen Deacon 39.4% 119,040
Total Votes 301,801
Source: New York Board of Elections


U.S. House, New York, District 24 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngColleen Deacon 49.9% 6,517
Eric Kingson 30.6% 3,994
Steven Williams 19.6% 2,557
Total Votes 13,068
Source: New York State Board of Elections

2014

See also: New York's 24th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 24th Congressional District of New York held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. John Katko (R) defeated incumbent Dan Maffei (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, New York District 24 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Dan Maffei Incumbent 40.3% 80,304
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Katko 59.5% 118,474
     N/A Write-in votes 0.2% 444
Total Votes 199,222
Source: New York State Board of Elections, NYS Board of Elections Rep. in Congress Election Returns November 4, 2014," accessed August 30, 2021

State profile

See also: New York and New York elections, 2020
USA New York location map.svg

Partisan data

The information in this section was current as of June 19, 2020.

Presidential voting pattern

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

New York Party Control: 1992-2025
Nine years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D
Assembly D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

New York quick stats

More New York coverage on Ballotpedia:


Demographic data for New York
 New YorkU.S.
Total population:19,747,183316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):47,1263,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:64.6%73.6%
Black/African American:15.6%12.6%
Asian:8%5.1%
Native American:0.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.9%3%
Hispanic/Latino:18.4%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.6%86.7%
College graduation rate:34.2%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$59,269$53,889
Persons below poverty level:18.5%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in New York.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.


See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Syracuse.com, "Balter and Conole: NY primary election is about who can beat Katko," June 19, 2020
  2. 2.0 2.1 Federal Election Commission, "New York - House District 24," accessed June 22, 2020
  3. Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 Francis Conole 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed June 22, 2020
  5. Daily Kos, "Morning Digest," June 8, 2020
  6. 6.00 6.01 6.02 6.03 6.04 6.05 6.06 6.07 6.08 6.09 6.10 Dana Balter 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed June 22, 2020
  7. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  8. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  9. National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed October 8, 2024
  10. New York State Senate, "Consolidated Laws of New York § 17-17-102," accessed October 8, 2024
  11. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  12. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  13. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  14. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  15. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  16. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  17. 270towin.com, "New York," accessed June 1, 2017
  18. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  19. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  20. Democrats won Assembly District 9 in a special election on May 23, 2017. The seat was previously held by a Republican.
  21. New York State Board of Elections, "Filings received for the 2016 Primary Election," accessed May 15, 2016
  22. Politico, "New York House Races Results," June 28, 2016


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Pat Ryan (D)
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
Democratic Party (21)
Republican Party (7)