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New York's 27th Congressional District election, 2020

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New York's 27th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 2, 2020
Primary: June 23, 2020
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
Christopher Jacobs Republican Party
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. (general elections); primary times vary by county
Voting in New York
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
New York's 27th Congressional District
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New York elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 27th Congressional District of New York, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Christopher Jacobs won election in the general election for U.S. House New York District 27.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 2, 2020
June 23, 2020
November 3, 2020


The 27th Congressional District seat is held by Christopher Jacobs (R). Jacobs won a special election to fill the seat representing New York's 27th Congressional District in the U.S. House in 2020. Jacobs defeated Nate McMurray (D), Duane Whitmer (L), and Michael Gammariello (G) in the June 23, 2020, special general election.


New York's 27th Congressional District is located in the western portion of the state and includes Genesee, Livingston, Orleans, and Wyoming counties and areas of Erie, Monroe, Niagara and Ontario counties.[1]

This race was one of 89 congressional races that were decided by 10 percent or less in 2020.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, New York's 27th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 41.1 39
Republican candidate Republican Party 56.8 59.7
Difference 15.7 20.7

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

New York modified its absentee/mail-in voting and candidate filing procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: Absentee voting eligibility in the general election was extended to any voter who was "unable to appear personally at the polling place of the election district in which they are a qualified voter because there is a risk of contracting or spreading a disease causing illness to the voter or to other members of the public." The state launched an absentee ballot request portal.
  • Candidate filing procedures: The filing deadline for independent nominating petitions was extended to July 30, 2020.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 27

Incumbent Christopher Jacobs defeated Nate McMurray and Duane Whitmer in the general election for U.S. House New York District 27 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Christopher Jacobs
Christopher Jacobs (R / Conservative Party / Independence Party)
 
59.7
 
228,885
Image of Nate McMurray
Nate McMurray (D / Working Families Party)
 
39.0
 
149,449
Image of Duane Whitmer
Duane Whitmer (L) Candidate Connection
 
1.3
 
4,877
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
120

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 383,331
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary election was canceled. Nate McMurray advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 27.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 27

Incumbent Christopher Jacobs defeated Beth Parlato and Stefan Mychajliw Jr. in the Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 27 on June 23, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Christopher Jacobs
Christopher Jacobs
 
59.1
 
40,459
Image of Beth Parlato
Beth Parlato
 
21.6
 
14,805
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Stefan Mychajliw Jr.
 
18.5
 
12,650
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.8
 
573

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 68,487
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Conservative Party primary election

The Conservative Party primary election was canceled. Beth Parlato advanced from the Conservative Party primary for U.S. House New York District 27.

Green primary election

The Green primary election was canceled. Michael Gammariello advanced from the Green primary for U.S. House New York District 27.

Independence Party primary election

The Independence Party primary election was canceled. Incumbent Christopher Jacobs advanced from the Independence Party primary for U.S. House New York District 27.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House New York District 27

Duane Whitmer defeated Nicholas Phelps in the Libertarian primary for U.S. House New York District 27 on June 23, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Duane Whitmer
Duane Whitmer Candidate Connection
 
74.6
 
188
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Submit photo
Nicholas Phelps
 
24.6
 
62
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.8
 
2

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 252
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Working Families Party primary election

The Working Families Party primary election was canceled. Nate McMurray advanced from the Working Families Party primary for U.S. House New York District 27.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Eighteen of 62 New York counties—29 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Broome County, New York 2.01% 5.31% 8.02%
Cayuga County, New York 11.64% 11.40% 8.48%
Cortland County, New York 5.58% 9.11% 9.96%
Essex County, New York 1.14% 18.77% 13.32%
Franklin County, New York 5.45% 26.07% 22.23%
Madison County, New York 14.20% 0.89% 0.87%
Niagara County, New York 17.75% 0.84% 1.00%
Orange County, New York 5.50% 5.65% 4.13%
Oswego County, New York 21.99% 7.93% 2.44%
Otsego County, New York 11.13% 2.72% 5.91%
Rensselaer County, New York 1.41% 12.19% 9.34%
St. Lawrence County, New York 8.82% 16.71% 16.33%
Saratoga County, New York 3.21% 2.44% 3.40%
Seneca County, New York 11.01% 9.08% 2.60%
Suffolk County, New York 6.84% 3.69% 5.99%
Sullivan County, New York 11.23% 9.02% 9.46%
Warren County, New York 8.47% 2.32% 2.64%
Washington County, New York 18.40% 1.90% 0.81%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won New York with 59 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.5 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, New York voted Democratic 45.6 percent of the time and Republican 35 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, New York voted Democratic all five times.[2]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Assembly districts in New York. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[3][4]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 114 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 46.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 99 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 50.3 points. Clinton won four districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 36 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 51 out of 150 state Assembly districts in New York with an average margin of victory of 17.6 points. Trump won 13 districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+11, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 11 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New York's 27th Congressional District the 121st most Republican nationally.[6]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.10. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.10 points toward that party.[7]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[8] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[9] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Christopher Jacobs Republican Party, Conservative Party, Independence Party $2,152,684 $2,089,855 $62,829 As of December 31, 2020
Nate McMurray Working Families Party, Democratic Party $1,146,889 $1,135,150 $35,282 As of December 31, 2020
Duane Whitmer Libertarian Party $36,056 $36,056 $0 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[10]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[11][12][13]

Race ratings: New York's 27th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely RepublicanLikely Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

Candidate ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for 27th Congressional District candidates in New York in the 2020 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in New York, click here.

Filing requirements, 2020
State Office Party Signatures required Signature formula Filing fee Filing fee formula Filing deadline Source
New York 27th Congressional District Qualified party 375 Reduced by executive action in response to the coronavirus pandemic N/A N/A 4/2/2020 Source
New York 27th Congressional District Unaffiliated 3,500 5% of the total number of votes cast for governor in the district in the last election, or 3,500, whichever is less N/A N/A 5/26/2020 Source

District election history

2018

See also: New York's 27th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 27

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Chris Collins
Chris Collins (R)
 
49.1
 
140,146
Image of Nate McMurray
Nate McMurray (D)
 
48.8
 
139,059
Image of Larry Piegza
Larry Piegza (Reform Party)
 
2.1
 
5,973

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 285,178
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 27

Candidate
✔
Image of Nate McMurray
Nate McMurray

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 27

Candidate
✔
Image of Chris Collins
Chris Collins

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: New York's 27th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Chris Collins (R) defeated Diana Kastenbaum (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced any opposition in the primaries on June 28, 2016.[14][15]

U.S. House, New York District 27 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngChris Collins Incumbent 67.2% 220,885
     Democratic Diana Kastenbaum 32.8% 107,832
Total Votes 328,717
Source: New York Board of Elections

2014

See also: New York's 27th Congressional District elections, 2014
U.S. House, New York District 27 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngChris Collins Incumbent 71% 144,675
     Democratic Jim O'Donnell 28.9% 58,911
     N/A Write-in votes 0% 59
Total Votes 203,645
Source: New York State Board of Elections, NYS Board of Elections Rep. in Congress Election Returns November 4, 2014," accessed August 30, 2021

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ New York Redistricting Map, "Map," accessed September 25, 2012
  2. ↑ 270towin.com, "New York," accessed June 1, 2017
  3. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  4. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  5. ↑ Democrats won Assembly District 9 in a special election on May 23, 2017. The seat was previously held by a Republican.
  6. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  7. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  8. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  9. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  10. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  11. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  14. ↑ New York State Board of Elections, "Filings received for the 2016 Primary Election," accessed May 15, 2016
  15. ↑ Politico, "New York House Races Results," June 28, 2016


New York's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Chuck Schumer (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
Pat Ryan (D)
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
Democratic Party (21)
Republican Party (7)


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