New York's 19th Congressional District election, 2024

	2026 → ← 2022
New York's 19th Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: April 4, 2024
	Primary: June 25, 2024; General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
	Poll times: 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.; Voting in New York
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Toss-up; DDHQ and The Hill: Toss-up; Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
	New York's 19th Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th • 14th • 15th • 16th • 17th • 18th • 19th • 20th • 21st • 22nd • 23rd • 24th • 25th • 26th; New York elections, 2024; U.S. Congress elections, 2024; U.S. Senate elections, 2024; U.S. House elections, 2024; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

New York 2024 elections

U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Congressional special elections • State Senate • State Assembly • Special state legislative • State ballot measures • Local ballot measures • School boards • Municipal • How to run for office

Josh Riley (D) defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Marcus Molinaro (R) in the general election for New York's 19th Congressional District on Nov. 5, 2024.^[1]^[2] Molinaro was one of 15 incumbents who lost their re-election campaigns to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024. Additionally, this was one of 19 seats that changed partisan control due to the 2024 U.S. House of Representatives elections.

This election was a rematch of the 2022 general election in which Molinaro defeated Riley 50.8%-49.2%. Molinaro's 2022 victory was the first time a Republican won the district since 2016.

Before the election, Spectrum News' Kevin Fey wrote, "In recent interviews, Molinaro labeled Riley a 'fraud,' while Riley said Molinaro is 'really good at pointing fingers' and really bad at solving problems.' Molinaro, the incumbent, touts his decades living in upstate New York and endorsements from various trade unions, while casting Riley as an out-of-touch Washington insider. He points to Riley’s time spent outside of the district working as a clerk for a federal judge and an aide on Capitol Hill before entering private practice...Riley, in response, says he is a fifth generation native of Broome County. Riley labels his opponent a career politician, noting the decades that Molinaro has spent in public office, including previously serving as a state assemblyman and county executive."^[3]

Four major election forecasters each rated the general election a toss-up.

Molinaro was first elected to public office when he was 18, becoming the mayor of Tivoli, New York. Molinaro became the youngest mayor in the U.S. at the time.^[4] Molinaro received an associate degree from Dutchess Community College and a community leadership alliance certificate from Elisabeth Haub School of Law at Pace University.^[5] Molinaro worked as a realtor and served as the county executive of Dutchess County and vice president of the New York State Association of Counties. Molinaro served in the New York State Assembly from 2007-2011^[4]^[5]

Molinaro said, "My top priority is making life more affordable for every family." Molinaro's campaign website said he would work to reduce the tax burden on families, support policies he believed would lower inflation, and streamline and simplify the tax code.^[6] Molinaro also said he would work to increase energy production while reducing carbon emissions and expand mental health services. ^[7]^[8]

Riley received a bachelor's degree from the College of William and Mary and a J.D. from Harvard.^[9] He was a staff assistant to former U.S. Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D), a policy analyst at the U.S. Department of Labor, a clerk on the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, and a general counsel to former U.S. Sen. Al Franken (D) on the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee. Riley worked for the law firms Boies, Schiller & Flexner and Jenner & Block LLP.^[9]^[10]

Riley said, "I'm running for Congress to change things. I support term limits, and I don't take any corporate PAC money because my vote is not for sale."^[11] Riley said he would work to increase the number of border agents and stop the flow of fentanyl at the U.S.-Mexico border and reduce taxes on the middle class.^[12]^[13]

Based on third quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Molinaro raised $5.1 million and spent $4.5 million and Riley raised $8.8 million and spent $7.7 million. To review all the campaign finance figures in full detail, click here.

New York conducted redistricting between the 2022 and 2024 elections. As a result, district lines in this state changed. To review how redistricting took place in New York and to see maps of the new districts, click here. For a list of all states that drew new district lines between 2022 and 2024, click here.

New York's 19th Congressional District was one of 34 congressional districts with a Republican incumbent or an open seat that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted in 2024. To read about DCCC targeting initiatives, click here. For a complete list of DCCC targeted districts, click here.

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House New York District 19

Josh Riley defeated incumbent Marcus Molinaro in the general election for U.S. House New York District 19 on November 5, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Josh Riley (D / Working Families Party)	51.1	192,647
	Marcus Molinaro (R / Conservative Party)	48.8	184,290
	Other/Write-in votes	0.1	406

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 377,343
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary election was canceled. Josh Riley advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House New York District 19.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Incumbent Marcus Molinaro advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House New York District 19.

Conservative Party primary election

The Conservative Party primary election was canceled. Incumbent Marcus Molinaro advanced from the Conservative Party primary for U.S. House New York District 19.

Working Families Party primary election

The Working Families Party primary election was canceled. Josh Riley advanced from the Working Families Party primary for U.S. House New York District 19.

Voting information

See also: Voting in New York

Election information in New York: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What was the voter registration deadline?

In-person: Oct. 26, 2024
By mail: Received by Oct. 26, 2024
Online: Oct. 26, 2024

Was absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

Yes

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

In-person: Nov. 4, 2024
By mail: Received by Oct. 26, 2024
Online: Oct. 26, 2024

What was the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Postmarked by Nov. 5, 2024

Was early voting available to all voters?

Yes

What were the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 26, 2024 to Nov. 3, 2024

Were all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, was a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When were polls open on Election Day?

6:00 a.m. - 9:00 p.m. (EST)

Candidate comparison

Candidate profiles

This section includes candidate profiles that may be created in one of two ways: either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey, or Ballotpedia staff may compile a profile based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements after identifying the candidate as noteworthy. For more on how we select candidates to include, click here.

Marcus Molinaro

Party: Republican Party, Conservative Party

Incumbent: Yes

Political Office:

U.S. House of Representatives - New York District 19 (Assumed office: 2023)
New York State Assembly (2007-2011)
Mayor of Tivoli, New York (1995-2006)
County Legislator for Dutchess County, New York (2001-2006)

Biography: Molinaro received an associates degree from Dutchess Community College and a community leadership alliance certificate from Elisabeth Haub School of Law at Pace University. Molinaro worked as a real estate salesperson. Molinaro served as the county executive of Dutchess County and vice president of the New York State Association of Counties.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Molinaro said, "My top priority is making life more affordable for every family." Molinaro's campaign website said he would work to reduce the tax burden on families, support policies he believed would lower inflation, and streamline and simplify the tax code.

On energy, Molinaro said, "We must strive for energy abundance which means utilizing a diverse portfolio of energy sources and by addressing logjams to bringing safer, cleaner, more reliable and efficient energy production online...We can build an energy sector capable of meeting the needs of our economy while reducing carbon emissions if we choose abundance over scarcity and pragmatism over ideology."

On mental health, Molinaro said, "America is the midst of a mental health crisis, a crisis which has been brewing for decades but one that was accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. As your Congressman, I promise to address this problem head on utilizing my experience as Dutchess County executive in expanding mental and behaviorial health services and implementing community-driven solutions."

Show sources

Sources: Youtube, "Growing Up," August 13, 2024;Marcus Molinaro 2024 Campaign Website, "Reducing Inflation and Our Cost of Living," accessed August 15, 2024;Marcus Molinaro 2024 Campaign Website, "Solving America's Energy Crisis," accessed August 15, 2024;Marcus Molinaro Campaign Website, "Addressing America's Mental Health Crises," accessed August 15, 2024; Congressman March Molinaro, "About," accessed August 15, 2024;Linkedin, "Marcus Molinaro," accessed August 15, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House New York District 19 in 2024.

Josh Riley

Party: Democratic Party, Working Families Party

Incumbent: No

Political Office: None

Biography: Riley received a bachelor's degree from the College of William and Mary and a J.D. from Harvard University. He was a staff assistant to former U.S. Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D), a policy analyst at the U.S. Department of Labor, a clerk on the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, and general counsel to former U.S. Sen. Al Franken (D) on the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee. Riley worked for the law firms Boies, Schiller & Flexner and Jenner & Block LLP.

Key Messages

The following key messages were curated by Ballotpedia staff. For more on how we identify key messages, click here.

Riley's campaign website said he supported policies that would "guarantee marriage equality, including the Respect for Marriage Act; prohibit discrimination against the LGBTQ+ community, including through the Equality Act; [and] ban dangerous conversion therapies."

On immigration, Riley said, "On the border, I'm opposed to the President, and I'll fight for real solutions: more agents, stronger enforcement, and laws that are tough and fair." Riley's campaign website said he supported policies that would hire new border agents and more immigration judges, halt the flow of fentanyl in the U.S. by implementing new technologies, and update visa programs to ensure farmers and trades unions have access to labor.

On taxes, Riley's campaign website said, "The Middle Class needs a tax cut; billionaires and big corporations don’t. Josh believes it is unacceptable that hedge fund managers pay lower tax rates than janitors, and he believes the tax code should be reformed to be simpler, fairer, and less of a burden for working families."

Show sources

Sources: Youtube, "Delivered," August 2, 2024;Josh Riley 2024 Campaign Website, "Issues," accessed August 15, 2024; Youtube, "The Deal," August 2, 2024; Josh Riley Campaign Website, "Meet Josh," accessed August 15, 2024;Bloomberg Law, "Jenner & Block Adds to Ex-Boies Schiller Hires with D.C.'s Riley," accessed August 15, 2024

This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House New York District 19 in 2024.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey.

Campaign ads

Marcus Molinaro

August 13, 2024

January 12, 2024

Josh Riley

August 2, 2024

August 2, 2024

July 16, 2024

Endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

Click the links below to see official endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites for any candidates that make that information available. If you are aware of a website that should be included, please email us.

Election competitiveness

Polls

Polls are conducted with a variety of methodologies and have margins of error or credibility intervals.^[14] The Pew Research Center wrote, "A margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times."^[15] For tips on reading polls from FiveThirtyEight, click here. For tips from Pew, click here.

The links below show polls for this race aggregated by FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, where available. Click here to read about FiveThirtyEight's criteria for including polls in its aggregation.

FiveThirtyEight

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[16]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[17]^[18]^[19]

Race ratings: New York's 19th Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 5, 2024	October 29, 2024	October 22, 2024	October 15, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up	Lean Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Tilt Democratic	Toss-up	Toss-up	Tilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Democratic	Toss-up	Toss-up	Toss-up
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Election spending

Campaign finance

Name

Party

Receipts*

Disbursements**

Cash on hand

Date

Marcus Molinaro

Republican Party, Conservative Party

$5,570,306

$5,580,362

$51,959

As of December 31, 2024

Josh Riley

Working Families Party, Democratic Party

$9,846,326

$9,795,033

$68,320

As of December 31, 2024

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Satellite spending

See also: Satellite spending

Satellite spending describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.^[20]^[21]^[22]

If available, this section includes links to online resources tracking satellite spending in this election. To notify us of a resource to add, email us.

By candidate	By election
Marcus Molinaro Josh Riley	Open Secrets Federal Election Commission

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

District map - A map of the district before and after redistricting ahead of the 2024 election.
Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Competitiveness
Presidential elections

State party control

Below is the district map used in the 2022 election next to the map in place for the 2024 election. Click on a map below to enlarge it.

2022

2024

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in New York.

New York U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Office	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	26	26	0	59	52	5	1	11.5%	4	15.4%
2022	26	26	7	107	52	16	8	46.2%	13	68.4%
2020	27	27	4	108	54	16	7	42.6%	11	47.8%
2018	27	27	1	85	54	13	1	25.9%	6	23.1%
2016	27	27	4	77	54	10	3	24.1%	5	21.7%
2014	27	27	2	55	54	5	5	18.5%	5	20.0%

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in New York in 2024. Information below was calculated on June 16, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Fifty-nine candidates ran for New York’s 26 U.S. House districts, including 32 Democrats and 27 Republicans. That’s an average of 2.27 candidates per district. There were 4.12 candidates per district in 2022, 4.00 candidates per district in 2020, and 3.15 candidates per district in 2018.

The 59 candidates who ran in New York in 2024 was the fewest number of candidates since 2014, when 55 candidates ran.

No districts were open in 2024, meaning all incumbents ran for re-election. This was the fewest number of open districts in the last 10 years.

Four candidates—three Democrats and one Republican—ran for the 10th Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a district in New York in 2024.

Six primaries—five Democratic and one Republican—were contested in 2024. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 16.8 primaries were contested each election year.

Four incumbents—three Democrats and one Republican—were in contested primaries in 2024. Between 2014 and 2022, an average of 8.00 incumbents ran in contested primaries each election year.

Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in all 26 districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.

Partisan Voter Index

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

Heading into the 2024 elections, based on results from the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, the Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1. This meant that in those two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made New York's 19th the 221st most Republican district nationally.^[23]

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in New York's 19th based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
51.2%	46.8%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.^[24] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
50.7	47.0	D+3.7

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in New York, 2020

New York presidential election results (1900-2020)

18 Democratic wins
13 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	R	D	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

See also: Party control of New York state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of New York's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from New York
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	2	19	21
Republican	0	7	7
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	26	28

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in New York's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in New York, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Kathy Hochul
Lieutenant Governor	Antonio Delgado
Secretary of State	Robert Rodriguez
Attorney General	Letitia James

State legislature

New York State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	42
	Republican Party	21
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		63

New York House of Representatives

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	102
	Republican Party	48
	Independence	0
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		150

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until the 2024 election.

New York Party Control: 1992-2024
Eight years of Democratic trifectas • No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D
Senate	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D
Assembly	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D

Election context

Ballot access requirements

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in New York in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in New York, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
New York	U.S. House	Ballot-qualified party	5% of voters from the candidate's same party or 1,250, whichever is less	N/A	4/4/2024	Source
New York	U.S. House	Unaffiliated	1% of votes cast for governor in the last election or 3,500, whichever is less	N/A	5/28/2024	Source

District history

The section below details election results for this office in elections dating back to 2018.