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North Carolina's 10th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
North Carolina's 10th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 20, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: June 23, 2020 (canceled)
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Patrick McHenry (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in North Carolina
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
North Carolina's 10th Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th
North Carolina elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 10th Congressional District of North Carolina, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Patrick T. McHenry won election in the general election for U.S. House North Carolina District 10.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 20, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Patrick McHenry, who was first elected in 2004.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, North Carolina's 10th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 31.2 31.1
Republican candidate Republican Party 67.7 68.9
Difference 36.5 37.8

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

North Carolina modified its absentee/mail-in voting and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: The witness signature requirement on completed absentee ballots decreased from two to one. The receipt deadline was extended to 5 p.m. on November 12, 2020, for ballots postmarked on or before Election Day.
  • Early voting: Early voting sites were required to be open for at least 10 hours on the weekends of October 17-18, 2020, and October 24-25, 2020. Counties had to open at least one early voting site per 20,000 registered voters.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House North Carolina District 10

Incumbent Patrick T. McHenry defeated David Parker in the general election for U.S. House North Carolina District 10 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Patrick T. McHenry
Patrick T. McHenry (R)
 
68.9
 
284,095
Image of David Parker
David Parker (D) Candidate Connection
 
31.1
 
128,189

Total votes: 412,284
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary election was canceled. David Parker advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 10.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 10

Incumbent Patrick T. McHenry defeated David Johnson and Ralf Walters in the Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 10 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Patrick T. McHenry
Patrick T. McHenry
 
71.7
 
62,661
David Johnson
 
16.3
 
14,286
Image of Ralf Walters
Ralf Walters Candidate Connection
 
12.0
 
10,484

Total votes: 87,431
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Six of 100 North Carolina counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bladen County, North Carolina 9.39% 1.97% 2.07%
Gates County, North Carolina 9.07% 4.11% 5.22%
Granville County, North Carolina 2.49% 4.54% 6.58%
Martin County, North Carolina 0.43% 4.65% 4.64%
Richmond County, North Carolina 9.74% 2.95% 1.50%
Robeson County, North Carolina 4.27% 17.41% 13.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Carolina with 49.8 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 46.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, North Carolina voted Democratic 53.5 percent of the time and Republican 25 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Carolina voted Republican all five times with the exception of the 2008 presidential election.[1]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Carolina. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 40 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 38.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 44 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won three districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 80 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 76 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 27.7 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+19, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 19 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made North Carolina's 10th Congressional District the 44th most Republican nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Patrick T. McHenry Republican Party $2,792,232 $2,351,361 $1,706,970 As of December 31, 2020
David Parker Democratic Party $32,121 $32,121 $0 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: North Carolina's 10th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: North Carolina's 10th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House North Carolina District 10

Incumbent Patrick T. McHenry defeated David Wilson Brown in the general election for U.S. House North Carolina District 10 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Patrick T. McHenry
Patrick T. McHenry (R)
 
59.3
 
164,969
Image of David Wilson Brown
David Wilson Brown (D)
 
40.7
 
113,259

Total votes: 278,228
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 10

David Wilson Brown advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 10 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
Image of David Wilson Brown
David Wilson Brown

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 10

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 10 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Patrick T. McHenry
Patrick T. McHenry
 
70.7
 
34,173
Image of Gina Collias
Gina Collias
 
13.8
 
6,664
Image of Jeff Gregory
Jeff Gregory
 
7.7
 
3,724
Image of Ira Roberts
Ira Roberts
 
3.5
 
1,701
Seth Blankenship
 
3.0
 
1,443
Image of Albert Wiley Jr.
Albert Wiley Jr.
 
1.3
 
616

Total votes: 48,321
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: North Carolina's 10th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Patrick McHenry (R) defeated Albert Wiley, Jr., Jeff Gregory, and Jeffrey Baker in the Republican primary. McHenry defeated Andy Millard, the only Democratic candidate to file, in the general election. The primary election took place on June 7, 2016. The general election took place on November 8, 2016.[12]

U.S. House, North Carolina District 10 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick McHenry Incumbent 63.1% 220,825
     Democratic Andy Millard 36.9% 128,919
Total Votes 349,744
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections


U.S. House, North Carolina District 10 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick McHenry Incumbent 78.4% 14,817
Jeff Gregory 12.1% 2,277
Jeffrey Baker 4.8% 905
Albert Wiley, Jr. 4.7% 896
Total Votes 18,895
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections


2014

See also: North Carolina's 10th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 10th Congressional District of North Carolina held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Patrick McHenry (R) defeated Tate MacQueen, IV (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, North Carolina District 10 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPatrick T. McHenry Incumbent 61% 133,504
     Democratic Tate MacQueen, IV 39% 85,292
Total Votes 218,796
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. 270towin.com, "North Carolina," accessed June 1, 2017
  2. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  4. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  5. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  6. Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  7. Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  8. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  9. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  10. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  11. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  12. North Carolina State Board of Elections, "June Primary Candidates," accessed March 27, 2016


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