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North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020

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North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: December 20, 2019
Primary: March 3, 2020
Primary runoff: June 23, 2020 (canceled)
General: November 3, 2020
Pre-election incumbent:
George Holding (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in North Carolina
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Likely Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th
North Carolina elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of North Carolina, held elections in 2020.

Deborah Ross won election in the general election for U.S. House North Carolina District 2.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
December 20, 2019
March 3, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican George Holding, who was first elected in 2012. Holding announced on December 6, 2019, that he would not seek re-election in 2020.[1]

In the Democratic primary, Deborah Ross (D) received 70.0% of the vote, defeating three other candidates. The Republican and Libertarian primaries for the district were canceled; Alan Swain (R) and Jeff Matemu (L) advanced to the general election.

Incumbent George Holding (R) did not seek re-election. In 2018, Holding won re-election by a margin of 5.5 percentage points.

This district was one of five Republican-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election. Prior to 2019 redistricting in North Carolina, no North Carolina district with a Republican incumbent voted for Clinton. After the redistricting, two districts that closely resembled an old district with a Republican incumbent voted for Clinton: the new 2nd and the new 6th.

According to Bloomberg Government on December 17, 2019, "North Carolina may play a starring role in the fight for control of Congress in 2020. A court-ordered redistricting gives Democrats a strong chance to add two House seats they wouldn’t have been able to count on otherwise."[2]

On March 4, 2020, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairwoman Cheri Bustos stated, "After Republicans’ previous congressional map was struck down for its illegal partisan gerrymander, these newly drawn districts mean Deborah Ross and Kathy Manning [in North Carolina's 6th Congressional District] are on a clear path to serving in Congress. I look forward to welcoming them to our majority."[3]

The outcome of this race affected partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 117th Congress. All 435 seats in the House were up for election. At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232 to 198 majority over Republicans. The Libertarian Party had one seat. Four seats were vacant. Democrats defended 30 districts Donald Trump (R) won in 2016. Republicans defended five districts Hillary Clinton (D) won in 2016.

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 64.3 63
Republican candidate Republican Party 34 34.8
Difference 30.3 28.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

North Carolina modified its absentee/mail-in voting and early voting procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Absentee/mail-in voting: The witness signature requirement on completed absentee ballots decreased from two to one. The receipt deadline was extended to 5 p.m. on November 12, 2020, for ballots postmarked on or before Election Day.
  • Early voting: Early voting sites were required to be open for at least 10 hours on the weekends of October 17-18, 2020, and October 24-25, 2020. Counties had to open at least one early voting site per 20,000 registered voters.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

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Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House North Carolina District 2

Deborah Ross defeated Alan Swain and Jeff Matemu in the general election for U.S. House North Carolina District 2 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Deborah Ross
Deborah Ross (D)
 
63.0
 
311,887
Image of Alan Swain
Alan Swain (R) Candidate Connection
 
34.8
 
172,544
Image of Jeff Matemu
Jeff Matemu (L)
 
2.2
 
10,914

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 495,345
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 2

Deborah Ross defeated Monika Johnson-Hostler, Andrew Terrell, and Ollie Nelson in the Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 2 on March 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Deborah Ross
Deborah Ross
 
69.8
 
103,574
Image of Monika Johnson-Hostler
Monika Johnson-Hostler
 
22.5
 
33,369
Image of Andrew Terrell
Andrew Terrell Candidate Connection
 
5.8
 
8,666
Image of Ollie Nelson
Ollie Nelson
 
1.8
 
2,677

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 148,286
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

The Republican primary election was canceled. Alan Swain advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 2.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian primary election

The Libertarian primary election was canceled. Jeff Matemu advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 2.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Six of 100 North Carolina counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bladen County, North Carolina 9.39% 1.97% 2.07%
Gates County, North Carolina 9.07% 4.11% 5.22%
Granville County, North Carolina 2.49% 4.54% 6.58%
Martin County, North Carolina 0.43% 4.65% 4.64%
Richmond County, North Carolina 9.74% 2.95% 1.50%
Robeson County, North Carolina 4.27% 17.41% 13.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Carolina with 49.8 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 46.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, North Carolina voted Democratic 53.5 percent of the time and Republican 25 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Carolina voted Republican all five times with the exception of the 2008 presidential election.[4]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Carolina. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[5][6]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 40 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 38.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 44 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won three districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 80 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 76 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 27.7 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+9, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 9 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District the 130th most Democratic nationally.[7]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[8]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[9] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[10] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Deborah Ross Democratic Party $2,291,723 $1,840,264 $451,458 As of December 31, 2020
Alan Swain Republican Party $119,671 $119,441 $229 As of December 31, 2020
Jeff Matemu Libertarian Party $625 $54 $0 As of June 30, 2019

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[11]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[12][13][14]

Race ratings: North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Republican in 2020 and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016

This district was one of five Republican-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election. Most were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2020.


Republican-held U.S. House districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
District Incumbent Ran in 2020? 2018 congressional margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
New York's 24th Republican Party John Katko Yes Republicans+5.3 Clinton+3.6 Obama+15.9
North Carolina's 2nd Republican Party George Holding Retired Republicans+5.6 Clinton+24.4 Obama+15.3
North Carolina's 6th Republican Party Mark Walker Retired Republicans+13.2 Clinton+21.5 Obama+17.7
Pennsylvania's 1st Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick Yes Republicans+2.5 Clinton+2.0 Obama+2.6
Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Retired Republicans+0.4 Clinton+3.4 Romney+2.6
Source: Sabato's Crystal Ball and Daily Kos


Click here to see the 30 U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat in 2020 and won by Donald Trump (R) in 2016.

District election history

2018

See also: North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House North Carolina District 2

Incumbent George E.B. Holding defeated Linda Coleman and Jeff Matemu in the general election for U.S. House North Carolina District 2 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of George E.B. Holding
George E.B. Holding (R)
 
51.3
 
170,072
Image of Linda Coleman
Linda Coleman (D)
 
45.8
 
151,977
Image of Jeff Matemu
Jeff Matemu (L) Candidate Connection
 
2.9
 
9,655

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 331,704
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 2

Linda Coleman defeated Ken Romley and Wendy May in the Democratic primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 2 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Linda Coleman
Linda Coleman
 
56.0
 
18,650
Image of Ken Romley
Ken Romley
 
32.3
 
10,742
Image of Wendy May
Wendy May
 
11.7
 
3,895

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 33,287
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 2

Incumbent George E.B. Holding defeated Allen Chesser II in the Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 2 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of George E.B. Holding
George E.B. Holding
 
76.2
 
17,979
Image of Allen Chesser II
Allen Chesser II
 
23.8
 
5,612

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 23,591
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 2

Jeff Matemu advanced from the Libertarian primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 2 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
✔
Image of Jeff Matemu
Jeff Matemu Candidate Connection

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified.

Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

2016

See also: North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent George Holding (R) from District 13 defeated incumbent Renee Ellmers and Greg Brannon in the District 2 Republican primary on June 7, 2016. This primary was rated by Ballotpedia as a 2016 U.S. House primary to watch. John McNeil defeated Elton Brewington, Jane Watson, Ron Sanyal, and Steven Hight in the Democratic primary and was defeated by Holding in the general election. The general election took place on November 8, 2016.[15]

Holding's decision to run in District 2 came after redistricting in North Carolina in February 2016 substantially changed the constituency of both districts.[16][17][18][19][20][15]

U.S. House, North Carolina District 2 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngGeorge Holding Incumbent 56.7% 221,485
     Democratic John McNeil 43.3% 169,082
Total Votes 390,567
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections


U.S. House, North Carolina District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngGeorge Holding Incumbent 53.4% 17,084
Renee Ellmers Incumbent 23.6% 7,552
Greg Brannon 23% 7,359
Total Votes 31,995
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections


U.S. House, North Carolina District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJohn McNeil 46.1% 7,613
Jane Watson 23.5% 3,875
Steven Hight 11.3% 1,870
Ron Sanyal 10.7% 1,761
Elton Brewington 8.4% 1,387
Total Votes 16,506
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

2014

See also: North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014
U.S. House, North Carolina District 2 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRenee Ellmers Incumbent 58.8% 122,128
     Democratic Clay Aiken 41.2% 85,479
Total Votes 207,607
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

See also

External links

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Twitter, "Kyle Cheney on December 6, 2019," accessed December 6, 2019
  2. ↑ Bloomberg Government, "New N.C. Redistricting Boosts Democrats in 2020 Elections," December 17, 2019
  3. ↑ DCCC, "The Case Against Alan Swain and Lee Haywood," March 4, 2020
  4. ↑ 270towin.com, "North Carolina," accessed June 1, 2017
  5. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  6. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  7. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  8. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  9. ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
  10. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
  11. ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  12. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  13. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  14. ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 North Carolina State Board of Elections, "June Primary Candidates," accessed March 27, 2016
  16. ↑ North Carolina State Board of Elections, "Candidate_Listing_20160315," December 21, 2015
  17. ↑ Twitter, "Colin Campbell," accessed February 22, 2016
  18. ↑ News Observer, "NC Sen. Andrew Brock to run for Congress under new map," February 22, 2016
  19. ↑ Statesville Record and Landmark, "As primary nears, candidates meet Thursday in Mooresville," February 23, 2016
  20. ↑ Rhino Times, "Greensboro State Rep. Blust announces run for Congress," March 2, 2016


North Carolina's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ted Budd (R)
Thom Tillis (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
Republican Party (12)
Democratic Party (4)


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