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North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House North Carolina District 3

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Walter B. Jones
Walter B. Jones (R)
 
100.0
 
187,901

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 187,901
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: February 28, 2018
Primary: May 8, 2018
Primary runoff: July 17, 2018 (if needed)
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Walter Jones (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m.
Voting in North Carolina
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+12
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th • 11th • 12th • 13th
North Carolina elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of North Carolina, held elections in 2018.

In the Republican primary, incumbent Rep. Walter Jones (R) fended off two challengers who were critical of his deviation from President Trump's agenda in the primary for North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District May 8. Jones' win all but guaranteed him re-election in the general election since no Democrats filed for the seat.

North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District was one of three U.S. House districts where a Democrat did not run in 2018. To learn more click here.



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House North Carolina District 3

Incumbent Walter B. Jones won election in the general election for U.S. House North Carolina District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Walter B. Jones
Walter B. Jones (R)
 
100.0
 
187,901

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 187,901
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 3

Incumbent Walter B. Jones defeated Phil Law and Scott Dacey in the Republican primary for U.S. House North Carolina District 3 on May 8, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Walter B. Jones
Walter B. Jones
 
43.0
 
20,963
Image of Phil Law
Phil Law
 
29.4
 
14,343
Image of Scott Dacey
Scott Dacey
 
27.5
 
13,421

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified.

Total votes: 48,727
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+12, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 12 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District the 110th most Republican nationally.[1]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.99. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.99 points toward that party.[2]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Walter B. Jones Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," . This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


Media coverage

Party politics

  • Lee Fang, The Intercept (April 18, 2018):
"Jones is one of the last remaining populists in the GOP, and his repeated votes against the Trump agenda, especially on tax cuts, could provoke a backlash. In 2016, North Carolina’s 3rd District went for Trump by 20 points. In any case, Jones announced recently that this election campaign will be his last. Even if he survives this latest primary challenge, he intends to retire after the following cycle."[3]

Endorsements

Walter Jones

District history

2016

See also: North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Walter Jones (R) defeated Democratic candidate Ernest Reeves in the general election. Jones defeated Taylor Griffin and Phil Law in the Republican primary, while Reeves defeated David Hurst for the Democratic nomination. The primary election took place on June 7, 2016. The general election took place on November 8, 2016.[5]

U.S. House, North Carolina District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngWalter Jones Incumbent 67.2% 217,531
     Democratic Ernest Reeves 32.8% 106,170
Total Votes 323,701
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections


U.S. House, North Carolina District 3 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngWalter Jones Incumbent 64.9% 15,799
Phil Law 20.3% 4,946
Taylor Griffin 14.8% 3,610
Total Votes 24,355
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections


U.S. House, North Carolina District 3 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngErnest Reeves 54.7% 6,456
David Hurst 45.3% 5,351
Total Votes 11,807
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

2014

See also: North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of North Carolina held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Walter Jones (R) defeated Marshall Adame (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, North Carolina District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngWalter Jones Incumbent 67.8% 139,415
     Democratic Marshall Adame 32.2% 66,182
Total Votes 205,597
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Six of 100 North Carolina counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Bladen County, North Carolina 9.39% 1.97% 2.07%
Gates County, North Carolina 9.07% 4.11% 5.22%
Granville County, North Carolina 2.49% 4.54% 6.58%
Martin County, North Carolina 0.43% 4.65% 4.64%
Richmond County, North Carolina 9.74% 2.95% 1.50%
Robeson County, North Carolina 4.27% 17.41% 13.78%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Carolina with 49.8 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 46.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1792 and 2016, North Carolina voted Democratic 53.5 percent of the time and Republican 25 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Carolina voted Republican all five times with the exception of the 2008 presidential election.[6]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Carolina. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 40 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 38.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 44 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 36.4 points. Clinton won three districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 80 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 76 out of 120 state House districts in North Carolina with an average margin of victory of 27.7 points. Trump won five districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in North Carolina heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

  • Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in North Carolina.
  • Republicans held 10 of 13 U.S. House seats in North Carolina.

State executives

  • As of May 2018, Democrats held five of 18 state executive positions, Republicans held five, and the remaining eight positions were officially nonpartisan.
  • The governor of North Carolina was Democrat Roy Cooper.

State legislature

Trifecta status

  • North Carolina was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Roy Cooper (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: North Carolina elections, 2018

North Carolina held elections for the following offices in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for North Carolina
 North CarolinaU.S.
Total population:10,035,186316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):48,6183,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:69.5%73.6%
Black/African American:21.5%12.6%
Asian:2.5%5.1%
Native American:1.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:8.8%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:85.8%86.7%
College graduation rate:28.4%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$46,868$53,889
Persons below poverty level:20.5%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in North Carolina.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, North Carolina had a population of approximately 10,273,419 people, with its three largest cities being Charlotte (pop. 842,051 million), Raleigh (pop. 458,880), and Greensboro (pop. 287,027).[9]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in North Carolina from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the North Carolina State Board of Elections.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in North Carolina every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), North Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.83% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 46.17% 3.66%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 50.39% Democratic Party Barack Obama 48.35% 2.04%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 49.70% Republican Party John McCain 49.38% 0.32%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.02% Democratic Party John Kerry 43.58% 12.44%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 56.03% Democratic Party Al Gore 43.2% 12.83%

U.S. Senate elections, 2002-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in North Carolina from 2002 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), North Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Richard Burr 51.06% Democratic Party Deborah K. Ross 45.37% 5.69%
2014 Republican Party Thom Tillis 48.82% Democratic Party Kay Hagan 47.26% 1.56%
2010 Republican Party Richard Burr 54.81% Democratic Party Elaine Marshall 43.05% 11.76%
2008 Democratic Party Kay Hagan 52.65% Republican Party Elizabeth Dole 44.18% 8.47%
2004 Republican Party Richard Burr 51.60% Democratic Party Erskine Bowles 47.02% 4.58%
2002 Republican Party Elizabeth Dole 53.56% Democratic Party Erskine Bowles 44.96% 0.92%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the five gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in North Carolina.

Election results (Governor), North Carolina 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Roy Cooper 49.02% Republican Party Pat McCrory 48.80% 0.22%
2012 Republican Party Pat McCrory 54.6% Democratic Party Walter Dalton 43.2% 11.4%
2008 Democratic Party Bev Perdue 50.27% Republican Party Pat McCrory 46.88% 5.34%
2004 Democratic Party Mike Easley 55.62% Republican Party Patrick J. Ballantine 42.88% 12.74%
2000 Democratic Party Mike Easley 52.02% Republican Party Richard Vinroot 46.26% 5.76%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent North Carolina in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, North Carolina 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 10 76.9% Democratic Party 3 23.08% R+7
2014 Republican Party 10 76.9% Democratic Party 3 23.08% R+7
2012 Republican Party 9 69.2% Democratic Party 4 30.8% R+6
2010 Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2008 Republican Party 5 38.5% Democratic Party 8 61.5% D+3
2006 Republican Party 6 46.2% Democratic Party 7 53.8% D+1
2004 Republican Party 7 53.8% Democratic Party 6 46.2% R+1
2002 Republican Party 7 53.8% Democratic Party 6 46.2% R+1
2000 Republican Party 7 58.3% Democratic Party 5 41.6% R+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

North Carolina Party Control: 1992-2025
Fourteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  Four years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  2. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  3. ↑ Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named intercept
  4. ↑ Reflector, "Trump ally endorses Jones," April 5, 2018
  5. ↑ North Carolina State Board of Elections, "June Primary Candidates," accessed March 27, 2016
  6. ↑ 270towin.com, "North Carolina," accessed June 1, 2017
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  9. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "American FactFinder," accessed April 3, 2018
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North Carolina's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ted Budd (R)
Thom Tillis (R)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
District 14
Republican Party (12)
Democratic Party (4)

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