North Carolina State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 North Carolina Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | March 15, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
All 50 seats in the North Carolina State Senate were up for election in 2016. Republicans gained one seat in the chamber after the November 2016 election.
Introduction
Ballotpedia’s analysis showed seven competitive districts. Close races between the two major parties were expected in the districts below.
The margin of victory is the difference, in percentage, between the votes cast for each of the two major party candidates:
| District | Party | 2014 Margin of Victory |
2012 Margin of Victory |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Republican |
R +7% | R +.02% |
| 12 | Republican |
R +12% | R +2% |
| 15 | Republican |
R +.85% | R +2% |
| 18 | Republican |
R +6% | R +12% |
| 19 | Republican |
R +9% | R +8% |
| 25 | Republican |
R +3% | D +6% |
| 50 | Republican |
R +8% | R +14% |
The Republicans would remain in control of the chamber even if the Democrats won in all seven districts.
Elections for the North Carolina State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on March 15, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016.[1] The candidate filing deadline was December 21, 2015.[2]
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the North Carolina State Senate:
| North Carolina State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 16 | 15 | |
| Republican Party | 34 | 35 | |
| Total | 50 | 50 | |
Retired incumbents
Seven incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| E.S. "Buck" Newton | Republican |
Senate District 11 |
| Josh Stein |  Democratic |
Senate District 16 |
| Stan Bingham | Republican |
Senate District 33 |
| Fletcher Hartsell | Republican |
Senate District 36 |
| Bob Rucho | Republican |
Senate District 39 |
| Daniel Soucek | Republican |
Senate District 45 |
| Tom Apodaca | Republican |
Senate District 48 |
Note: Josh Stein (D) resigned from the state Senate on March 21, 2016. Jay Chaudhuri (D) was appointed to the seat on April 19, 2016.
Note: Daniel Soucek (R) resigned from the state Senate on April 8, 2016. Deanna Ballard (R) was appointed to the seat on April 26, 2016.
Note: Tom Apodaca (R) resigned from the state Senate on July 15, 2016. Chuck Edwards (R) was appointed to the seat on August 19, 2016.
2016 election competitiveness
North Carolina sees a dip in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well North Carolina performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the North Carolina State Senate, there were 16 Democratic incumbents and 34 Republican incumbents. Four incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. There were three primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 45 Democratic incumbents, 74 Republican incumbents, and 1 unaffiliated incumbent. Nine state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 15 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 North Carolina Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Brownie Futrell: 36,759 | William Cook: 53,138 (I)  |
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| 2 | Dorothea White: 39,505 | Norman Sanderson: 58,032 (I) |
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| 3 | Erica Smith-Ingram (I) |
No candidate | |
| 4 | Angela Bryant: 56,584 (I) |
Richard Scott: 27,038 | |
| 5 | Donald Davis (I) |
No candidate | |
| 6 | No candidate | Harry Brown (I) |
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| 7 | No candidate | Louis Pate (I) |
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| 8 | No candidate | William Rabon (I) |
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| 9 | Andrew Barnhill: 44,743 | Michael V. Lee: 60,173 (I) |
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| 10 | No candidate | Brent Jackson (I) |
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| 11 | Albert Pacer: 35,394 | Rick Horner: 55,765 |
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| 12 | Susan Byerly: 33,426 | Ronald Rabin: 45,228 (I) |
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| 13 | Jane W. Smith: 27,940 (I) | Danny Earl Britt: 34,126 |
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| 14 | Dan Blue Jr. (I) |
No candidate | |
| 15 | Laurel Deegan-Fricke: 53,905 | John Alexander: 58,999 (I) |
Brad Hessel: 5,081 (L) |
| 16 | Jay Chaudhuri: 68,842 (I) |
Eric Weaver: 36,530 | |
| 17 | Susan Evans: 58,063 | Tamara Barringer: 59,105 (I) |
Susan Hogarth: 5,191 (L) |
| 18 | Gil Johnson: 46,105 | Chad Barefoot: 57,121 (I) |
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| 19 | Toni Morris: 31,149 | Wesley Meredith: 40,359 (I) |
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| 20 | Floyd McKissick: 71,865 (I) |
No candidate | Barbara Howe: 16,202 (L) |
| 21 | Ben Clark: 49,081 (I) |
Dan Travieso: 19,338 | |
| 22 | Mike Woodard: 74,693 (I) |
T. Greg Doucette: 39,198 | |
| 23 | Valerie Foushee: 79,520 (I) |
Mary Lopez-Carter: 37,322 | |
| 24 | John Thorpe: 33,456 | Rick Gunn: 51,833 (I) |
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| 25 | Dannie Montgomery: 30,416 | Tom McInnis: 53,621 (I) |
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| 26 | No candidate | Phil Berger (I) |
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| 27 | Michael Garrett: 47,731 | Trudy Wade: 54,512 (I) |
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| 28 | Gladys Robinson: 74,232 (I) |
Devin R. King: 14,265 | |
| 29 | No candidate | Jerry W. Tillman (I) |
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| 30 | Michael Holleman: 22,435 | Shirley Randleman: 59,602 (I) |
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| 31 | No candidate | Joyce Krawiec (I) |
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| 32 | Paul Lowe (I) |
No candidate | |
| 33 | Jim Beall Graham: 23,809 | Cathy Dunn: 59,367 |
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| 34 | No candidate | Andrew Brock (I) |
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| 35 | No candidate | Tommy Tucker (I) |
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| 36 | Robert Brown: 35,664 | Paul Newton: 59,584 |
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| 37 | Jeff Jackson: 57,804 (I) |
Bob Diamond: 27,279 | |
| 38 | Joel Ford: 67,059 (I) |
Richard Rivette: 17,764 | |
| 39 | Lloyd Scher: 44,655 | Dan Bishop: 58,739 |
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| 40 | Joyce Waddell: 61,481 (I) |
Marguerite Cooke: 13,032 | |
| 41 | Jonathan Hudson: 41,453 | Jeff Tarte: 55,519 (I) |
Chris Cole: 4,938 (L) |
| 42 | No candidate | Andy Wells (I) |
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| 43 | No candidate | Kathy Harrington (I) |
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| 44 | No candidate | David Curtis: 71,114 (I) |
Nic Haag: 20,881 (L) |
| 45 | Art Sherwood: 30,559 | Deanna Ballard: 56,758 (I) |
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| 46 | Anne Fischer: 27,106 | Warren Daniel: 52,997 (I) |
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| 47 | Mary Jane Boyd: 30,364 | Ralph Hise: 56,021 (I) |
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| 48 | Norman Bossert: 37,596 | Chuck Edwards: 61,455 (I) |
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| 49 | Terry Van Duyn: 71,828 (I) |
No candidate | William Meredith: 24,672 (L) |
| 50 | Jane Hipps: 35,476 | Jim Davis: 59,028 (I) |
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Notes:
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Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the North Carolina State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 50 races in the North Carolina State Senate in 2016, 35 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 29.6 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Democratic candidates in the North Carolina State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 15 races. In the 11 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 46.9 percent. Republicans won 35 races in 2016. In the 24 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 21.7 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Four of the 35 contested races in 2016—11.4 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Two races saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Republicans won all four races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less. |
North Carolina State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 13 R 10.0 percent District 15 R 4.3 percent District 17 R 0.9 percent District 27 R 6.6 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the North Carolina State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. Forty-four incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 29 winning North Carolina State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 30.8 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the North Carolina State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. 15 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the 11 races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 46.9 percent. 29 Republican incumbents won re-election. In the 18 races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 20.9 percent. |
North Carolina State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 15 46.9 percent 15 46.9 percent 4 4 26.7 percent Republican 35 21.7 percent 29 20.9 percent 11 11 31.4 percent Total 50 29.6 percent 44 30.8 percent 15 15 30.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in North Carolina State Senate districts in 2016.
| North Carolina State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | 18.2 percent |
| District 2 | R | 19.0 percent |
| District 3 | D | Unopposed |
| District 4 | D | 35.3 percent |
| District 5 | D | Unopposed |
| District 6 | R | Unopposed |
| District 7 | R | Unopposed |
| District 8 | R | Unopposed |
| District 9 | R | 14.7 percent |
| District 10 | R | Unopposed |
| District 11 | R | 22.4 percent |
| District 12 | R | 15.0 percent |
| District 13 | R | 10.0 percent |
| District 14 | D | Unopposed |
| District 15 | R | 4.3 percent |
| District 16 | D | 30.7 percent |
| District 17 | R | 0.9 percent |
| District 18 | R | 10.7 percent |
| District 19 | R | 12.9 percent |
| District 20 | D | 63.2 percent |
| District 21 | D | 43.5 percent |
| District 22 | D | 31.2 percent |
| District 23 | D | 36.1 percent |
| District 24 | R | 21.6 percent |
| District 25 | R | 27.6 percent |
| District 26 | R | Unopposed |
| District 27 | R | 6.6 percent |
| District 28 | D | 67.8 percent |
| District 29 | R | Unopposed |
| District 30 | R | 45.3 percent |
| District 31 | R | Unopposed |
| District 32 | D | Unopposed |
| District 33 | R | 42.8 percent |
| District 34 | R | Unopposed |
| District 35 | R | Unopposed |
| District 36 | R | 25.1 percent |
| District 37 | D | 35.9 percent |
| District 38 | D | 58.1 percent |
| District 39 | R | 13.6 percent |
| District 40 | D | 65.0 percent |
| District 41 | R | 13.8 percent |
| District 42 | R | Unopposed |
| District 43 | R | Unopposed |
| District 44 | R | 54.6 percent |
| District 45 | R | 30.0 percent |
| District 46 | R | 32.3 percent |
| District 47 | R | 29.7 percent |
| District 48 | R | 24.1 percent |
| District 49 | D | 48.9 percent |
| District 50 | R | 24.9 percent |
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 18 of the 50 districts that were up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of six Democrats and 12 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 32 (64 percent) of the 50 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
Seven incumbents faced primary competition on March 15. Seven incumbents did not seek re-election, and another 36 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Seven incumbents did not run for re-election, while 43 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents—six Republicans and one Democrat—can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition, and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details North Carolina's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| General Assembly of North Carolina 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 8.2% | 18.0% | 51.8% | 26 | 31 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for state Senate in North Carolina in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in state Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| North Carolina State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 116 | $20,134,759 |
| 2012 | 129 | $14,979,819 |
| 2010 | 137 | $18,601,599 |
| 2008 | 115 | $15,853,280 |
| 2006 | 99 | $14,580,777 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. North Carolina, at $173,576 per candidate, is ranked 13 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
Article 2, Section 6 of the North Carolina Constitution states: "Each Senator, at the time of his election, shall be not less than 25 years of age, shall be a qualified voter of the State, and shall have resided in the State as a citizen for two years and in the district for which he is chosen for one year immediately preceding his election."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ The primary for U.S. congressional elections was rescheduled to June 7, 2016, following legal challenges to North Carolina's district maps. State races were unaffected.
- ↑ North Carolina State Board of Elections, "2016 Candidate Filing," archived January 19, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Follow the Money, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in North Carolina," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
