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United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota, 2018

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General election

General election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kelly Armstrong
Kelly Armstrong (R)
 
60.2
 
193,568
Image of Mac Schneider
Mac Schneider (D)
 
35.6
 
114,377
Image of Charles Tuttle
Charles Tuttle (Independent)
 
4.1
 
13,066
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
521

Total votes: 321,532
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2020
2016
North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 9, 2018
Primary: June 12, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Kevin Cramer (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Open between 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.; close between 7 p.m. to 9 p.m.
Voting in North Dakota
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District
U.S. SenateAt-large
North Dakota elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

The 2018 U.S. House of Representatives elections in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2018. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's At-Large Congressional District.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Kevin Cramer (R), who was first elected in 2012.

North Dakota has a single at-large congressional district, which makes up the entire state.





Candidates and election results

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District

Kelly Armstrong defeated Mac Schneider and Charles Tuttle in the general election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kelly Armstrong
Kelly Armstrong (R)
 
60.2
 
193,568
Image of Mac Schneider
Mac Schneider (D)
 
35.6
 
114,377
Image of Charles Tuttle
Charles Tuttle (Independent)
 
4.1
 
13,066
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
521

Total votes: 321,532
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District

Mac Schneider advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on June 12, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Mac Schneider
Mac Schneider
 
100.0
 
33,727

Total votes: 33,727
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District

Kelly Armstrong defeated Tom Campbell, Tiffany Abentroth, and Paul Schaffner in the Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on June 12, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Kelly Armstrong
Kelly Armstrong
 
56.3
 
37,364
Image of Tom Campbell
Tom Campbell
 
26.9
 
17,861
Image of Tiffany Abentroth
Tiffany Abentroth
 
8.9
 
5,921
Paul Schaffner
 
7.9
 
5,243

Total votes: 66,389
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+16, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 16 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made North Dakota's at-large district the 67th-most Republican district nationally.[1]

FiveThirtyEight's elasticity score for states and congressional districts measures "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." Heading into the election, this district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moves toward a party, the district is expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[2]

Endorsements

Republican Party Kelly Armstrong

2016 Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties and Congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties

North Dakota's single congressional district intersects with one or more Pivot Counties. These 206 Pivot Counties voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.

The 206 Pivot Counties are located in 34 states. Iowa, with 31, had the most such counties. The partisan makeup of the 108 congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties is more Republican than the partisan breakdown of the U.S. House. Of the 108 congressional districts that have at least one Pivot County, 63 percent are held by a Republican incumbent, while 55.4 percent of U.S. House seats were won by a Republican in the 2016 elections.[4]

Campaign finance

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[5]
Democratic Party Democrats



Republican Party Republicans



Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[6][7][8]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • House Majority PAC spent $67,500 on advertisements supporting Mac Schneider in November 2018.

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to U.S. House elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 48 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

U.S. House wave elections
Year President Party Election type House seats change House majority[9]
1932 Hoover R Presidential -97 D
1922 Harding R First midterm -76 R
1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -70 D
2010 Obama D First midterm -63 R (flipped)
1920 Wilson D Presidential -59 R
1946 Truman D First midterm -54 R (flipped)
1994 Clinton D First midterm -54 R (flipped)
1930 Hoover R First midterm -53 D (flipped)
1942 Roosevelt D Third midterm -50 D
1966 Johnson D First midterm[10] -48 D
1974 Ford R Second midterm[11] -48 D

District history

2016

See also: North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Kevin Cramer (R) defeated Chase Iron Eyes (D) and Jack Seaman (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in June.[12]

U.S. House, North Dakota's At-Large District General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngKevin Cramer Incumbent 69.1% 233,980
     Democratic Chase Iron Eyes 23.7% 80,377
     Libertarian Jack Seaman 7% 23,528
     N/A Write-in 0.2% 574
Total Votes 338,459
Source: North Dakota Secretary of State

2014

See also: North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District elections, 2014

The At-Large Congressional District of North Dakota held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Kevin Cramer (R) defeated George B. Sinner (D) and Jack Seaman (L) in the general election.

U.S. House, North Dakota's At-Large District General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngKevin Cramer Incumbent 55.5% 138,100
     Democratic George B. Sinner 38.5% 95,678
     Libertarian Jack Seaman 5.8% 14,531
     Write-in Write-in candidates 0.1% 361
Total Votes 248,670
Source: North Dakota Secretary of State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 53 North Dakota counties—7.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Benson County, North Dakota 4.33% 17.01% 33.53%
Ransom County, North Dakota 15.77% 13.77% 15.33%
Sargent County, North Dakota 19.73% 9.77% 17.49%
Steele County, North Dakota 17.72% 1.92% 20.35%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Dakota with 63 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican 81.25 percent of the time and Democratic 15.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican all five times.[13]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Dakota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[14][15]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won eight out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won four out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 25.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 43 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 38.9 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in North Dakota heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

  • As of September 2018, Republicans held nine of 10 state executive positions, with the tenth held by a nonpartisan official.
  • The governor of North Dakota was Republican Doug Burgum. Burgum won election in 2016.

State legislature

Trifecta status

  • North Dakota was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: North Dakota elections, 2018

North Dakota held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for North Dakota
 North DakotaU.S.
Total population:756,835316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):69,0013,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:88.7%73.6%
Black/African American:1.6%12.6%
Asian:1.2%5.1%
Native American:5.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:2.9%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:91.7%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.7%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$57,181$53,889
Persons below poverty level:12.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in North Dakota.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, North Dakota's three largest cities were Fargo (pop. est. 120,000), Bismarck (pop. est. 73,000), and Grand Forks (pop. est. 57,000).[16]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the North Dakota Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in North Dakota every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), North Dakota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 63.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 27.2% 35.8%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 58.3% Democratic Party Barack Obama 38.7% 19.6%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 53.3% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.6% 8.7%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 62.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 35.5% 27.4%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 60.7% Democratic Party Al Gore 33.1% 27.6%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), North Dakota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party John Hoeven 78.5% Democratic Party Eliot Glassheim 17.0% 61.5%
2012 Democratic Party Heidi Heitkamp 50.2% Republican Party Rick Berg 49.3% 0.9%
2010 Republican Party John Hoeven 76.1% Democratic Party Tracy Potter 22.2% 53.9%
2006 Democratic Party Kent Conrad 68.8% Republican Party Dwight Grotberg 29.5% 39.3%
2004 Democratic Party Byron Dorgan 68.3% Republican Party Mike Liffrig 31.7% 36.6%
2000 Democratic Party Kent Conrad 61.4% Republican Party Duane Sand 38.6% 22.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in North Dakota.

Election results (Governor), North Dakota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Doug Burgum 76.5% Democratic Party Marvin Nelson 19.4% 57.1%
2012 Republican Party Jack Dalrymple 63.1% Democratic Party Ryan Taylor 34.3% 28.8%
2008 Republican Party John Hoeven 74.4% Democratic Party Tim Mathern 23.5% 50.9%
2004 Republican Party John Hoeven 71.3% Democratic Party Joe Satrom 27.4% 43.9%
2000 Republican Party John Hoeven 55.0% Democratic Party Heidi Heitkamp 45.0% 10.0%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent North Dakota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, North Dakota 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 1 100.0% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2014 Republican Party 1 100.0% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2012 Republican Party 1 100.0% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2010 Republican Party 1 100.0% Democratic Party 0 0.0% R+1
2008 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 1 100.0% D+1
2006 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 1 100.0% D+1
2004 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 1 100.0% D+1
2002 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 1 100.0% D+1
2000 Republican Party 0 0.0% Democratic Party 1 100.0% D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

North Dakota Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas  •  Thirty-one years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  2. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  3. Grand Forks Herald, "ND Republicans endorse Kelly Armstrong for Congress," April 7, 2018
  4. The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
  5. FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
  6. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  7. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  8. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  9. Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
  10. Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
  11. Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
  12. North Dakota Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Election Contest/Candidate List," accessed April 12, 2016
  13. 270towin.com, "North Dakota," accessed June 29, 2017
  14. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  15. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  16. North Dakota Demographics by Cubit, "North Dakota Cities by Population," accessed September 7, 2018



Senators
Representatives
Republican Party (3)