United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota, 2018
General election
General election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Kelly Armstrong (R) | 60.2 | 193,568 |
![]() | Mac Schneider (D) | 35.6 | 114,377 | |
Charles Tuttle (Independent) | 4.1 | 13,066 | ||
Other/Write-in votes | 0.2 | 521 |
Total votes: 321,532 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
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- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: N/A (no formal registration process)
- Early voting: Sept. 27 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 5
- Online registration: N/A
- Same-day registration: N/A
- Voter ID: ID required
- Poll times: Varies according to the size of the precinct
2020 →
← 2016
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North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District |
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Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
Election details |
Filing deadline: April 9, 2018 |
Primary: June 12, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Kevin Cramer (Republican) |
How to vote |
Poll times: Open between 7 a.m. to 9 a.m.; close between 7 p.m. to 9 p.m. Voting in North Dakota |
Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
Ballotpedia analysis |
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
See also |
U.S. Senate • At-large North Dakota elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
The 2018 U.S. House of Representatives elections in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2018. Voters elected one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state's At-Large Congressional District.
Heading into the election the incumbent was Kevin Cramer (R), who was first elected in 2012.
North Dakota has a single at-large congressional district, which makes up the entire state.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Kelly Armstrong defeated Mac Schneider and Charles Tuttle in the general election for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Kelly Armstrong (R) | 60.2 | 193,568 |
![]() | Mac Schneider (D) | 35.6 | 114,377 | |
Charles Tuttle (Independent) | 4.1 | 13,066 | ||
Other/Write-in votes | 0.2 | 521 |
Total votes: 321,532 (100.00% precincts reporting) | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Mac Schneider advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on June 12, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Mac Schneider | 100.0 | 33,727 |
Total votes: 33,727 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Ben W. Hanson (D)
- John Grabinger (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District
Kelly Armstrong defeated Tom Campbell, Tiffany Abentroth, and Paul Schaffner in the Republican primary for U.S. House North Dakota At-large District on June 12, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Kelly Armstrong | 56.3 | 37,364 |
![]() | Tom Campbell | 26.9 | 17,861 | |
![]() | Tiffany Abentroth | 8.9 | 5,921 | |
Paul Schaffner | 7.9 | 5,243 |
Total votes: 66,389 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+16, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 16 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made North Dakota's at-large district the 67th-most Republican district nationally.[1]
FiveThirtyEight's elasticity score for states and congressional districts measures "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." Heading into the election, this district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moves toward a party, the district is expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[2]
Endorsements
2016 Pivot Counties
North Dakota's single congressional district intersects with one or more Pivot Counties. These 206 Pivot Counties voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012.
The 206 Pivot Counties are located in 34 states. Iowa, with 31, had the most such counties. The partisan makeup of the 108 congressional districts intersecting with Pivot Counties is more Republican than the partisan breakdown of the U.S. House. Of the 108 congressional districts that have at least one Pivot County, 63 percent are held by a Republican incumbent, while 55.4 percent of U.S. House seats were won by a Republican in the 2016 elections.[4]
Campaign finance
The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.[5]
Democrats
Satellite spending
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[6][7][8]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
- House Majority PAC spent $67,500 on advertisements supporting Mac Schneider in November 2018.
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to U.S. House elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 48 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
U.S. House wave elections | ||||||
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Year | President | Party | Election type | House seats change | House majority[9] | |
1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -97 | D | |
1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -76 | R | |
1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -70 | D | |
2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -63 | R (flipped) | |
1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -59 | R | |
1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) | |
1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) | |
1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -53 | D (flipped) | |
1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -50 | D | |
1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[10] | -48 | D | |
1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[11] | -48 | D |
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Kevin Cramer (R) defeated Chase Iron Eyes (D) and Jack Seaman (L) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary opponent in June.[12]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | ![]() |
69.1% | 233,980 | |
Democratic | Chase Iron Eyes | 23.7% | 80,377 | |
Libertarian | Jack Seaman | 7% | 23,528 | |
N/A | Write-in | 0.2% | 574 | |
Total Votes | 338,459 | |||
Source: North Dakota Secretary of State |
2014
The At-Large Congressional District of North Dakota held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Kevin Cramer (R) defeated George B. Sinner (D) and Jack Seaman (L) in the general election.
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | ![]() |
55.5% | 138,100 | |
Democratic | George B. Sinner | 38.5% | 95,678 | |
Libertarian | Jack Seaman | 5.8% | 14,531 | |
Write-in | Write-in candidates | 0.1% | 361 | |
Total Votes | 248,670 | |||
Source: North Dakota Secretary of State |
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Four of 53 North Dakota counties—7.5 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
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County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
Benson County, North Dakota | 4.33% | 17.01% | 33.53% | ||||
Ransom County, North Dakota | 15.77% | 13.77% | 15.33% | ||||
Sargent County, North Dakota | 19.73% | 9.77% | 17.49% | ||||
Steele County, North Dakota | 17.72% | 1.92% | 20.35% |
In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won North Dakota with 63 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 27.2 percent. In presidential elections between 1892 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican 81.25 percent of the time and Democratic 15.6 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, North Dakota voted Republican all five times.[13]
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in North Dakota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[14][15]
In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won eight out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won four out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. |
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 39 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 25.1 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 43 out of 47 state House districts in North Dakota with an average margin of victory of 38.9 points. Trump won three districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
1 | 25.25% | 72.44% | R+47.2 | 15.70% | 77.60% | R+61.9 | R |
2 | 23.50% | 74.04% | R+50.5 | 12.81% | 81.65% | R+68.8 | R |
3 | 34.53% | 62.62% | R+28.1 | 20.28% | 69.79% | R+49.5 | R |
4 | 44.65% | 53.30% | R+8.7 | 31.23% | 62.19% | R+31 | R |
5 | 35.04% | 62.99% | R+27.9 | 25.32% | 65.85% | R+40.5 | R |
6 | 33.60% | 64.02% | R+30.4 | 19.03% | 73.86% | R+54.8 | R |
7 | 28.93% | 68.80% | R+39.9 | 18.95% | 74.05% | R+55.1 | R |
8 | 28.39% | 69.14% | R+40.7 | 16.17% | 78.39% | R+62.2 | R |
9 | 73.98% | 24.10% | D+49.9 | 57.16% | 33.14% | D+24 | D |
10 | 40.63% | 56.80% | R+16.2 | 23.79% | 68.63% | R+44.8 | R |
11 | 54.52% | 42.92% | D+11.6 | 47.09% | 42.67% | D+4.4 | D |
12 | 40.44% | 56.89% | R+16.5 | 28.16% | 63.38% | R+35.2 | R |
13 | 45.20% | 52.76% | R+7.6 | 36.60% | 54.96% | R+18.4 | R |
14 | 30.67% | 67.01% | R+36.3 | 19.04% | 74.40% | R+55.4 | R |
15 | 43.56% | 53.45% | R+9.9 | 28.47% | 62.14% | R+33.7 | R |
16 | 50.78% | 45.95% | D+4.8 | 40.22% | 49.41% | R+9.2 | R |
17 | 43.28% | 54.92% | R+11.6 | 36.93% | 56.05% | R+19.1 | R |
18 | 55.25% | 41.99% | D+13.3 | 39.68% | 50.13% | R+10.4 | D |
19 | 38.30% | 59.10% | R+20.8 | 23.98% | 68.23% | R+44.3 | R |
20 | 43.84% | 53.94% | R+10.1 | 28.99% | 61.73% | R+32.7 | D |
21 | 58.10% | 37.73% | D+20.4 | 49.24% | 38.72% | D+10.5 | D |
22 | 39.93% | 57.89% | R+18 | 30.35% | 60.24% | R+29.9 | R |
23 | 48.91% | 48.94% | R+0 | 34.28% | 57.80% | R+23.5 | R |
24 | 45.51% | 52.18% | R+6.7 | 30.90% | 59.19% | R+28.3 | R |
25 | 41.58% | 56.58% | R+15 | 27.20% | 64.26% | R+37.1 | D |
26 | 47.28% | 50.58% | R+3.3 | 30.77% | 59.94% | R+29.2 | R |
27 | 43.92% | 53.66% | R+9.7 | 38.23% | 51.62% | R+13.4 | R |
28 | 25.69% | 71.88% | R+46.2 | 14.18% | 80.31% | R+66.1 | R |
29 | 34.32% | 63.27% | R+28.9 | 20.98% | 72.76% | R+51.8 | R |
30 | 34.36% | 63.38% | R+29 | 23.14% | 69.35% | R+46.2 | R |
31 | 37.63% | 60.06% | R+22.4 | 24.35% | 68.30% | R+44 | R |
32 | 37.65% | 59.45% | R+21.8 | 26.56% | 64.60% | R+38 | R |
33 | 26.89% | 70.44% | R+43.6 | 13.37% | 81.32% | R+68 | R |
34 | 36.69% | 60.28% | R+23.6 | 23.55% | 67.65% | R+44.1 | R |
35 | 37.72% | 59.56% | R+21.8 | 29.88% | 60.59% | R+30.7 | R |
36 | 21.01% | 77.00% | R+56 | 11.33% | 83.81% | R+72.5 | R |
37 | 26.51% | 71.55% | R+45 | 16.67% | 77.64% | R+61 | R |
38 | 30.15% | 67.72% | R+37.6 | 19.59% | 72.28% | R+52.7 | R |
39 | 19.92% | 78.02% | R+58.1 | 11.09% | 83.49% | R+72.4 | R |
40 | 35.42% | 61.14% | R+25.7 | 25.35% | 63.05% | R+37.7 | R |
41 | 42.55% | 55.38% | R+12.8 | 39.53% | 51.32% | R+11.8 | R |
42 | 49.85% | 46.46% | D+3.4 | 39.58% | 49.50% | R+9.9 | R |
43 | 49.24% | 48.50% | D+0.7 | 41.62% | 50.35% | R+8.7 | R |
44 | 52.26% | 44.96% | D+7.3 | 46.38% | 42.62% | D+3.8 | D |
45 | 44.75% | 52.72% | R+8 | 35.95% | 54.29% | R+18.3 | R |
46 | 45.62% | 52.35% | R+6.7 | 41.96% | 49.55% | R+7.6 | R |
47 | 30.74% | 67.39% | R+36.7 | 25.59% | 67.63% | R+42 | R |
Total | 38.92% | 58.66% | R+19.7 | 27.74% | 64.15% | R+36.4 | - |
Source: Daily Kos |
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in North Dakota heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in North Dakota.
- Republicans held the state's at-large U.S. House seat.
State executives
- As of September 2018, Republicans held nine of 10 state executive positions, with the tenth held by a nonpartisan official.
- The governor of North Dakota was Republican Doug Burgum. Burgum won election in 2016.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the North Dakota State Legislature. They had a 80-13 majority in the state House and a 38-9 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- North Dakota was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party held the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.
2018 elections
- See also: North Dakota elections, 2018
North Dakota held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One seat in the U.S. Senate
- One seat in the U.S. House
- Five state executive seats
- 24 out of 47 seats in the state Senate
- 48 out of 94 seats in the state House
- One of five seats on the state Supreme Court
Demographics
Demographic data for North Dakota | ||
---|---|---|
North Dakota | U.S. | |
Total population: | 756,835 | 316,515,021 |
Land area (sq mi): | 69,001 | 3,531,905 |
Race and ethnicity** | ||
White: | 88.7% | 73.6% |
Black/African American: | 1.6% | 12.6% |
Asian: | 1.2% | 5.1% |
Native American: | 5.3% | 0.8% |
Pacific Islander: | 0% | 0.2% |
Two or more: | 2.2% | 3% |
Hispanic/Latino: | 2.9% | 17.1% |
Education | ||
High school graduation rate: | 91.7% | 86.7% |
College graduation rate: | 27.7% | 29.8% |
Income | ||
Median household income: | $57,181 | $53,889 |
Persons below poverty level: | 12.2% | 11.3% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in North Dakota. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. |
As of July 2016, North Dakota's three largest cities were Fargo (pop. est. 120,000), Bismarck (pop. est. 73,000), and Grand Forks (pop. est. 57,000).[16]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the North Dakota Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in North Dakota every year from 2000 to 2016.
Election results (President of the United States), North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
63.0% | ![]() |
27.2% | 35.8% |
2012 | ![]() |
58.3% | ![]() |
38.7% | 19.6% |
2008 | ![]() |
53.3% | ![]() |
44.6% | 8.7% |
2004 | ![]() |
62.9% | ![]() |
35.5% | 27.4% |
2000 | ![]() |
60.7% | ![]() |
33.1% | 27.6% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in North Dakota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
Election results (U.S. Senator), North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
78.5% | ![]() |
17.0% | 61.5% |
2012 | ![]() |
50.2% | ![]() |
49.3% | 0.9% |
2010 | ![]() |
76.1% | ![]() |
22.2% | 53.9% |
2006 | ![]() |
68.8% | ![]() |
29.5% | 39.3% |
2004 | ![]() |
68.3% | ![]() |
31.7% | 36.6% |
2000 | ![]() |
61.4% | ![]() |
38.6% | 22.8% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in North Dakota.
Election results (Governor), North Dakota 2000-2016 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
2016 | ![]() |
76.5% | ![]() |
19.4% | 57.1% |
2012 | ![]() |
63.1% | ![]() |
34.3% | 28.8% |
2008 | ![]() |
74.4% | ![]() |
23.5% | 50.9% |
2004 | ![]() |
71.3% | ![]() |
27.4% | 43.9% |
2000 | ![]() |
55.0% | ![]() |
45.0% | 10.0% |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent North Dakota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
North Dakota Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Thirty-one years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Governor | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
Senate | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States House election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House election in North Dakota (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2018
- U.S. House primaries, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Grand Forks Herald, "ND Republicans endorse Kelly Armstrong for Congress," April 7, 2018
- ↑ The raw data for this study was provided by Dave Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ↑ FEC, "Federal Election Commission," accessed November 5, 2017
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ North Dakota Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Election Contest/Candidate List," accessed April 12, 2016
- ↑ 270towin.com, "North Dakota," accessed June 29, 2017
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ North Dakota Demographics by Cubit, "North Dakota Cities by Population," accessed September 7, 2018